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Post by middleenglander on Mar 10, 2017 14:59:55 GMT
Broxbourne, Waltham Cross - Conservative gain from Labour
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | Conservative | 650 | 41.0% | -3.5% | +2.7% | +13.7% | -4.0% | -5.2% | Labour | 646 | 40.8% | -14.8% | -2.1% | +4.2% | -14.2% | -13.0% | UKIP | 200 | 12.6% | from nowhere | -6.2% | -12.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 89 | 5.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -11.0%
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| Total votes | 1,585 |
| 73% | 37% | 93% | 99% | 97% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 5½% since 2016, ~ 2½% since 2015, ~4¾% since 2014 and ~ 5% / 4% since 2012
Council now 27 Conservative, 2 Labour, 1 UKIP
Derby, Derwent - Conservative gain from UKIP
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Conservative | 789 | 37.1% | +3.7% | +13.6% | +28.1% | +27.7% | Labour | 611 | 28.7% | -4.5% | -13.8% | -2.4% | -23.0% | UKIP | 537 | 25.2% | -1.8% | -1.7% | -7.2% | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 192 | 9.0% | +2.7% | +2.0% | -15.4% | -18.1% | BNP |
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| -3.1% | -11.9% | Total votes | 2,129 |
| 87% | 43% | 78% | 84% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 4% since 2016 (when Conservative won) and if meaningful ~ 13¾% since 2015 (Conservative third behind Labour & UKIP) and ~ 15¼% since 2014 (UKIP won) Council now 26 Labour, 18 Conservative, 5 Liberal Democrat, 2 UKIP
East Hertfordshire, Hertford Castle - Conservative hold Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2013 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Conservative | 593 | 49.0% | +8.2% | +8.8% | +4.6% | +5.5% | +5.3% | Labour | 207 | 17.1% | -2.9% | -2.4% | from nowhere | -12.2% | -10.6% | Liberal Democrat | 188 | 15.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 157 | 13.0% | -4.7% | -5.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 65 | 5.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -21.6% | -22.2% | -55.5% | -27.2% | -28.6% | Total votes | 1,210 |
| 21% | 22% | 70% | 40% | 42% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 5½% since 2015 and ~ 8¾% / 8% since 2011
Council now 49 Conservative, 1 Independent
Harrow, Roxbourne - Labour hold
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | | Labour | 1,554 | 62.8% | +13.7% | +10.8% | +10.1% | +9.5% | Conservative | 533 | 21.5% | -0.5% | +0.0% | -6.2% | -7.1% | Liberal Democrat | 240 | 9.7% | +0.7% | +0.6% | -9.9% | -8.4% | UKIP | 148 | 6.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Labour |
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| -19.9% | -17.4% |
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| Total votes | 2,475 |
| 63% | 71% | 48% | 50% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~7% / 5½% since 2014 and ~8¼% since 2010
Council now 33 Labour, 26 Conservative, 2 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Vacant
Rutland, Exton - Conservative hold
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | since 2007 | | Conservative | 238 | 59.5% | +6.5% | -12.6% | -20.9% | Liberal Democrat | 123 | 30.8% | +11.6% | +2.8% | from nowhere | UKIP | 39 | 9.8% | -5.0% | from nowhere | -9.8% | Independent |
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| -13.1% |
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| Total votes | 400 |
| 47% | 67% | 91% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~2½% since 2015 and ~7¾% since 2011 Council now 18 Conservative, 6 Independent, 2 Liberal Democrat
Stratford-on-Avon, Red Horse - Conservative hold
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 | Conservative | 476 | 53.4% | -9.0% | Liberal Democrat | 266 | 29.8% | +20.3% | UKIP | 92 | 10.3% | -4.8% | Green | 58 | 6.5% | from nowhere | Labour |
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| -12.9% | Total votes | 892 |
| 42% |
Swing if meaningful Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 14½% Council now 30 Conservative, 4 Liberal Democrat, 1 Labour, 1 Independent
West Oxfordshire, Hailey, Minster Lovell & Leafield - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2012 | since 2011 | | Liberal Democrat | 567 | 46.7% | +34.0% | +32.6% | +33.6% | +35.0% | +36.8% | Conservative | 504 | 41.5% | +3.8% | -14.6% | -14.8% | -12.4% | -25.1% | Labour | 71 | 5.8% | -4.5% | -10.1% | -10.1% | -17.3% | -7.2% | Green | 38 | 3.1% | -2.8% | -10.8% | -11.7% | -8.2% | -7.4% | UKIP | 35 | 2.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -33.4% |
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| Total votes | 1,215 |
| 102% | 50% | 53% | 114% | 80% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat if meaningful ~ 15% since 2016 and more meaningful ~24% since 2015 & 2012 and 31% since 2011 Council now 40 Conservative, 5 Liberal Democrat, 4 Labour
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,766
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Post by mboy on Mar 10, 2017 15:03:10 GMT
Will he claim that it was rigged? I've seen him on social media claiming that he lost his parliamentary seat because there were Irish people who were wrongly missed off the register for the general election, etc.... Maybe that's why he refuses to remove the letters 'MP' from his Twitter handle.....Occam's razor suggests it's because he's a fucking moron. I think the issue is usually that Twitter take a very long time to change the name of "verified" name accounts. He might still be a moron though. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 10, 2017 15:09:44 GMT
Occam's razor suggests it's because he's a fucking moron. I think the issue is usually that Twitter take a very long time to change the name of "verified" name accounts. He might still be a moron though. Given he's had 18 months, I think the latter is the more likely. |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
Member is Online
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Post by ColinJ on Mar 10, 2017 16:45:27 GMT
I wonder if that is the Sadiq Khan effect, i.e. Labour in London is seen as a serious governing party, rather than an inept and embarrassing protest movement. It could just be the fact that South Harrow is a fucking shithole Take that back or I challenge you to a duel. |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
Member is Online
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Post by ColinJ on Mar 10, 2017 16:46:52 GMT
HARROW Roxbourne Maxine HENSON (Labour Party) 1,554 Annabel SINGH (The Conservative Party Candidate) 533 Marshel AMUTHARSAN (Liberal Democrats) 240 Herbert CROSSMAN (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 148 Electorate 9435, valid votes 2475, spoilt papers 7. Turnout 26.3% |
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 10, 2017 16:54:07 GMT
Further evidence that Labour are holding up better in London than anywhere else in the U.K. I wonder if that is the Sadiq Khan effect, i.e. Labour in London is seen as a serious governing party, rather than an inept and embarrassing protest movement. That may be true... Certainly I think the Tories are doing less well in London... There is a narrative out there that says that Labour Remainers are switching to the Lib Dems. Based on the 2014 locals that has not happened, but compared to the microscopic 2.7% the Lib Dems got in the GLC list, perhaps in amongst the churn which saw the Labour vote also go up, it did? |
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 10, 2017 16:57:07 GMT
When was the last time the Tories won Waltham Cross?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 10, 2017 17:01:08 GMT
When was the last time the Tories won Waltham Cross? In 2004. Before that, 2000. And they nearly won the old Waltham Cross South ward in 1992. |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Mar 10, 2017 17:45:09 GMT
On page 1 of this thread I posted a link to Andrew Teale's invaluable previews. Among the many interesting pieces of information, he includes the 2016 Mayoral and GLA results for wards within Greater London. I feel these are better yardsticks from which to work when predicting than the 2014 council elections. I suggest people might like to check the 'party list' returns for Roxbourne last year. One noticeable thing about the 2016 GLA elections in Roxbourne is that Sadiq Khan significantly underperformed the Labour list. It's worth pointing out here that Roxbourne is a very Hindu ward. That's a fair comment: I suspect that Zac Goldsmith's campaigning (along the lines of "Sadiq Khan wants to steal your jewellery") might have reinforced traditional Hindu-Muslim prejudices. Khan underperfomed even more in the ward of the next Harrow by-election, Kenton East. Leaving aside postal votes (counted separately) Khan had a majoroity of only 59 there. The Labour 'list' majority was 318, the Labour 'constituency' candidate, a Hindu, had a lead of 603 votes. Draw your own conclusions. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 10, 2017 17:54:26 GMT
It could just be the fact that South Harrow is a fucking shithole Take that back or I challenge you to a duel. i wouldn't worry about it @colinj - Pete once said it about the ward I grew up in and the ward I now live in in quite a short space of time.  |
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 10, 2017 17:58:52 GMT
Or it could be that Corbyn Labour is increasingly be reduced to a party that does well in areas of high ethnic minority concentration, which applies to many parts of London.
That may not be what Pete meant, though, in case anyone is thinking of having a go at him, as Labour has also been recovering in some predominantly white wards of 'multiple social deprivation' as in Middlesbrough (which has a disproportionate number of such), after UKIP did well for a while.
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627 
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Post by Rural Radical on Mar 10, 2017 22:28:36 GMT
It's just not good enough is it? What excuses this week I wonder? Blairites? |
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on Mar 10, 2017 22:50:53 GMT
Labour are holding up better in London than anywhere else in the U.K. Which is precisely why I wanted out of London. It had got to the point where I couldn't look my neighbours in the eye. Not. In. My. Name. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 10, 2017 22:52:15 GMT
Or it could be that Corbyn Labour is increasingly be reduced to a party that does well in areas of high ethnic minority concentration, which applies to many parts of London. Dubious: one of the losses this week was in Waltham Cross which has a pretty high concentration of minorities. And in reality it's London even if not officially. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 10, 2017 23:01:26 GMT
Indeed it's almost the tail end of London Overground - the north west border of the ward even follows the track.
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 10, 2017 23:02:42 GMT
I have Waltham Cross as over 75% white, 15% black, 5% Asian.
Roxbourne 33% white, 58% Asian & black.
That was from the 2011 census.
I suggest there is a significant difference, especially given possible registration/turnout of the black section of residents.
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,742
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Post by Adrian on Mar 11, 2017 3:15:36 GMT
Will he claim that it was rigged? I've seen him on social media claiming that he lost his parliamentary seat because there were Irish people who were wrongly missed off the register for the general election, etc.... Maybe that's why he refuses to remove the letters 'MP' from his Twitter handle..... There were several reasons why Chris Williamson lost Derby North in 2015, and by a margin of only 41 votes.
1. He was considered too left-wing by some moderate voters in this key bellweather constituency. 2. Tactical voting from former supporters of Liberal Democrat candidate Lucy Care in 2015, which benefitted the Conservatives as well as Labour. 3. UKIP taking more votes from Labour than from the Conservatives, which proved to be the case in a lot of bellweather seats. 4. And yes, postal vote issues. But the three factors above played a far more significant role in Labour's loss of that seat.
*bellwether Possibly the most important reason is that the seat was targeted by the Tories under their 40/40 strategy. This went largely under the radar (despite the fact that it wasn't a secret) but was cruelly effective. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,800
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Post by john07 on Mar 11, 2017 14:51:56 GMT
Or it could be that Corbyn Labour is increasingly be reduced to a party that does well in areas of high ethnic minority concentration, which applies to many parts of London. That may not be what Pete meant, though, in case anyone is thinking of having a go at him, as Labour has also been recovering in some predominantly white wards of 'multiple social deprivation' as in Middlesbrough (which has a disproportionate number of such), after UKIP did well for a while. My interpretation of what Pete was saying is "too many brown faces"! But then He has previous on this. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 11, 2017 14:59:28 GMT
Doubt even Pete thinks He deserves a capital H.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 11, 2017 17:05:07 GMT
Or it could be that Corbyn Labour is increasingly be reduced to a party that does well in areas of high ethnic minority concentration, which applies to many parts of London. That may not be what Pete meant, though, in case anyone is thinking of having a go at him, as Labour has also been recovering in some predominantly white wards of 'multiple social deprivation' as in Middlesbrough (which has a disproportionate number of such), after UKIP did well for a while. My interpretation of what Pete was saying is "too many brown faces"! But then He has previous on this. No not primarily - it's significantly less Asian than several other wards in Harrow (or indeed Brent) which I wouldn't describe in those terms (eg Belmont, Kenton which are majority Asian and remain quite pleasant areas.) More relevant is that Roxbourne has the highest proportion of social housing in the borough and some of this is pretty grim - there was some discussion about the Rayners Lane estate which I knew as a particularly bad one and which has evidently been redeveloped (but with the same people living there) and there are others. There is a pretty large Somalian population here which does cause some problems - I'm not sure that the brownness of their faces is the principal one.. |
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