|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 10, 2017 9:44:32 GMT
It's just not good enough is it? What excuses this week I wonder? Derwent was a good chance of a gain but we were nowhere close. Given it's in his constituency I wonder what Chris Williamson MP makes of it. |
|
|
|
Post by Arthur Figgis on Mar 10, 2017 10:32:18 GMT
Derwent was a good chance of a gain but we were nowhere close. Given it's in his constituency I wonder what Chris Williamson MP makes of it. Will he claim that it was rigged? I've seen him on social media claiming that he lost his parliamentary seat because there were Irish people who were wrongly missed off the register for the general election, etc.... Maybe that's why he refuses to remove the letters 'MP' from his Twitter handle.....Occam's razor suggests it's because he's a fucking moron. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
|
Post by The Bishop on Mar 10, 2017 10:56:27 GMT
The local Labour council in Derby is distinctly unpopular (this was evident in last year's results, and in the Derbyshire PCC election where the Tories - remarkably - narrowly "won" there with a massive swing from 2012) Given that combined with the national picture, the result should have surprised few.
Losing in Broxbourne by just 4 votes, though - that is hard to take. I wonder if the LibDem candidate spent all their time attacking Labour (as seems normal recently)?
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Mar 10, 2017 11:04:55 GMT
The local Labour council in Derby is distinctly unpopular (this was evident in last year's results, and in the Derbyshire PCC election where the Tories - remarkably - narrowly "won" there with a massive swing from 2012) Given that combined with the national picture, the result should have surprised few. Losing in Broxbourne by just 4 votes, though - that is hard to take. I wonder if the LibDem candidate spent all their time attacking Labour (as seems normal recently)? What goes around comes around, I guess! However since the Lib Dem vote is at the default paper candidate level it does not look like you can blame them on this occasion, other than for standing... |
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Mar 10, 2017 11:08:14 GMT
Derwent was a good chance of a gain but we were nowhere close. Given it's in his constituency I wonder what Chris Williamson MP makes of it. Will he claim that it was rigged? I've seen him on social media claiming that he lost his parliamentary seat because there were Irish people who were wrongly missed off the register for the general election, etc.... Maybe that's why he refuses to remove the letters 'MP' from his Twitter handle..... There were several reasons why Chris Williamson lost Derby North in 2015, and by a margin of only 41 votes.
1. He was considered too left-wing by some moderate voters in this key bellweather constituency. 2. Tactical voting from former supporters of Liberal Democrat candidate Lucy Care in 2015, which benefitted the Conservatives as well as Labour. 3. UKIP taking more votes from Labour than from the Conservatives, which proved to be the case in a lot of bellweather seats. 4. And yes, postal vote issues. But the three factors above played a far more significant role in Labour's loss of that seat.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
|
Post by The Bishop on Mar 10, 2017 11:12:21 GMT
I'm not "blaming" anybody - the facts are the facts.
For the record, the local Labour council here is not very popular either and was one of the *contributing* factors to the Copeland result.
(and given my acknowledgement of the national situation, I'm not really ignoring the "elephant in the room" either)
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
|
Post by The Bishop on Mar 10, 2017 11:17:41 GMT
Oh it certainly is (something I voted against btw!)
But he won standing on an anti-council platform, and many voters seem to still blame the councillors rather than him for local problems.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 10, 2017 11:47:08 GMT
Labour have held Roxbourne ward with a majority over 1,000 but no other numbers known yet.
|
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,140 
|
Post by Foggy on Mar 10, 2017 12:10:56 GMT
1. He was considered too left-wing by some moderate voters in this key bellweather constituency. 2. Tactical voting from former supporters of Liberal Democrat candidate Lucy Care in 2015, which benefitted the Conservatives as well as Labour. 3. UKIP taking more votes from Labour than from the Conservatives, which proved to be the case in a lot of bellweather seats. Tactical voting in any year other than 2015 would not have affected that year's GE results. Neither Derby nor any of the other close Labour-Tory seats from that election have clangorous meteorology... |
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Mar 10, 2017 12:12:51 GMT
Labour have held Roxbourne ward with a majority over 1,000 but no other numbers known yet. There you are. Everything's all right, then!  |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
|
Post by The Bishop on Mar 10, 2017 12:13:50 GMT
I hold no brief for Williamson (arguably a major reason why he lost was that he took re-election for granted) but the margin of defeat was *so* tiny that even a relatively minor matter such as the one he mentions could have had a significant effect.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 10, 2017 12:35:52 GMT
HARROW Roxbourne
Maxine HENSON (Labour Party) 1,554
Annabel SINGH (The Conservative Party Candidate) 533
Marshel AMUTHARSAN (Liberal Democrats) 240
Herbert CROSSMAN (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 148
|
|
|
|
Post by jonnymorris on Mar 10, 2017 12:44:39 GMT
HARROW Roxbourne
Maxine HENSON (Labour Party) 62.8%
Annabel SINGH (The Conservative Party Candidate) 21.5%
Marshel AMUTHARSAN (Liberal Democrats) 9.7%
Herbert CROSSMAN (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 6.0%
No Independent Labour Group candidate, as there was in 2014.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Mar 10, 2017 12:47:13 GMT
HARROW Roxbourne Maxine HENSON (Labour Party) 1,554 (62.8%, +13.8%) Annabel SINGH (The Conservative Party Candidate) 533 (21.5%, -0.5%) Marshel AMUTHARSAN (Liberal Democrats) 240 (9.7%, +0.7%) Herbert CROSSMAN (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 148 (6%, +6%) Ind Lab did not stand but got 19.9% in 2014 Good result for Labour, mopping up the Ind Lab votes from 2014 while Tories and Lib Dems stood still. judging by #Roxbourne the Tories were trying quite hard as well. From what was posted above it sounds like Labour have been doing well with a regeneration project in the ward.. Just occasionally the electorate reward good work! |
|
|
|
Post by akmd on Mar 10, 2017 12:56:59 GMT
Further evidence that Labour are holding up better in London than anywhere else in the U.K. Aside from the Harrow result, this has been a truly wretched performance by Labour in these latest by-elections. I'm starting to think that the party could suffer heavy losses in May's elections. Even if that doesn't happen, I don't see them making any gains apart from maybe the odd seat from UKIP.
|
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Mar 10, 2017 13:14:12 GMT
On page 1 of this thread I posted a link to Andrew Teale's invaluable previews.
Among the many interesting pieces of information, he includes the 2016 Mayoral and GLA results for wards within Greater London.
I feel these are better yardsticks from which to work when predicting than the 2014 council elections.
I suggest people might like to check the 'party list' returns for Roxbourne last year.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Mar 10, 2017 13:22:01 GMT
On page 1 of this thread I posted a link to Andrew Teale's invaluable previews. Among the many interesting pieces of information, he includes the 2016 Mayoral and GLA results for wards within Greater London. I feel these are better yardsticks from which to work when predicting than the 2014 council elections. I suggest people might like to check the 'party list' returns for Roxbourne last year. One noticeable thing about the 2016 GLA elections in Roxbourne is that Sadiq Khan significantly underperformed the Labour list. It's worth pointing out here that Roxbourne is a very Hindu ward. |
|
|
|
Post by Lord Twaddleford on Mar 10, 2017 13:52:15 GMT
Further evidence that Labour are holding up better in London than anywhere else in the U.K. I wonder if that is the Sadiq Khan effect, i.e. Labour in London is seen as a serious governing party, rather than an inept and embarrassing protest movement. Makes me wonder about the perceptions of Labour in Wales, where it too is a governing party, albeit one that has been in power for going on 18 years now... |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,442
|
Post by iain on Mar 10, 2017 13:54:55 GMT
Further evidence that Labour are holding up better in London than anywhere else in the U.K. I wonder if that is the Sadiq Khan effect, i.e. Labour in London is seen as a serious governing party, rather than an inept and embarrassing protest movement. More likely IMO that it's a Brexit effect - despite Labour's current malaise, Londoners are less willing to vote for Theresa May's Tories than people elsewhere in the country. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 10, 2017 13:56:01 GMT
Further evidence that Labour are holding up better in London than anywhere else in the U.K. I wonder if that is the Sadiq Khan effect, i.e. Labour in London is seen as a serious governing party, rather than an inept and embarrassing protest movement. It could just be the fact that South Harrow is a fucking shithole |
|
