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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2017 11:47:44 GMT
Infratest dimap approval ratings show Schulz' popularity declining. Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) 65% (+3) Angela Merkel (CDU) 60% (+5) Thomas de Maiziere (CDU) 54% (+4) Martin Schulz (SPD) 52% (-3) Cem Özdemir (Greens) 50% (+1) Schulz aside, any obvious reason why the CDU ratings ( why is there three of them, btw) have all improved? Its the list of the five most popular politicians in Germany, I do not follow German politics closely enough to say why all three CDU top names are gaining, but its the best numbers for Merkel since September 2015. www.epochtimes.de/politik/deutschland/infratest-kopf-an-kopf-rennen-zwischen-union-und-spd-a2066932.html
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 10, 2017 16:15:04 GMT
De Maiziere- there's a name with a pedigree.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2017 10:20:07 GMT
New Emnid poll out today with a tie between the Big 2 and an AfD drop.
CDU/CSU 33% (nc) SPD 33% (+1) AfD 8% (-2) Die Linke 8% (nc) Greens 7% (nc) FDP 6% (nc) Others 5% (+1)
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2017 15:48:08 GMT
New Emnid poll out today with a tie between the Big 2 and an AfD drop. CDU/CSU 33% (nc) SPD 33% (+1) AfD 8% (-2) Die Linke 8% (nc) Greens 7% (nc) FDP 6% (nc) Others 5% (+1) a large score for others, do you know what the breakdown is?
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Mar 12, 2017 16:01:29 GMT
New Emnid poll out today with a tie between the Big 2 and an AfD drop. CDU/CSU 33% (nc) SPD 33% (+1) AfD 8% (-2) Die Linke 8% (nc) Greens 7% (nc) FDP 6% (nc) Others 5% (+1) a large score for others, do you know what the breakdown is? It's a standard score for 'Sonstige', actually. They got 6.2% combined at the last election, of which 2.2% went to the Pirates. I don't suppose the pollsters prompt for any other parties. I suspect all the other German parties represented in the European Parliament are on just under 1% each.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2017 16:03:22 GMT
New Emnid poll out today with a tie between the Big 2 and an AfD drop. CDU/CSU 33% (nc) SPD 33% (+1) AfD 8% (-2) Die Linke 8% (nc) Greens 7% (nc) FDP 6% (nc) Others 5% (+1) a large score for others, do you know what the breakdown is? No, its from a brief article, but its higher in the former GDR than the west, so I assume NPD get a sizable chunk of it. Former DDR (incl. Berlin) SPD 27% CDU/CSU 26% Die Linke 16% AfD 15% Greens 5% FDP 4% Others 7% Former BRD (excl. Berlin) SPD 34% CDU/CSU 34% Greens 8% AfD 7% FDP 7% Die Linke 6% Others 4% www.rp-online.de/politik/deutschland/emnid-spd-legt-weiter-zu-afd-rutscht-ab-aid-1.6683064
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 15, 2017 22:31:01 GMT
CDU seems to have halted the Schulz surge and clawed back a bit of support. They are now leading/MoE in all recent polls. Minor parties are stagnant and still well below their polling pre-Schulz. List of main pollsters who have conducted a poll solely in April below with a comparison to approximately 1 month before that.
Infratest Dimap - CDU 34 (+2) SPD 31 (nc) AFD 11 (nc) Greens 8 (nc) DL 7 (-1) FDP 6 (nc) Emnid - CDU 35 (+2) SPD 31 (-1) AFD 9 (nc) Greens 7 (-1) DL 9 (+1) FDP 6 (+1) INSA - CDU 33 (+2) SPD 31.5 (+0.5) AFD 10 (-1.5) Greens 6.5 (nc) DL 8.5 (nc) FDP 6.5 (-0.5) Civey - CDU 35.1 (+1.6) SPD 30.1 (-1.3) AFD 9 (-1.3) Greens 7 (+0.2) DL 8.6 (+1.5) FDP 5.8 (-0.9) Forsa - CDU 36 (+3) SPD 30 (-2) AFD 8 (-1) Greens 7 (nc) DL 8 (+1) FDP 6 (nc) Forschungsgruppe Wahlen - CDU 35 (+1) SPD 32 (nc) AFD 9 (nc) Greens 7 (nc) DL 8 (nc) FDP 5 (nc)
Average: CDU - 34.6 (+1.9) SPD - 30.9 (-0.6) AFD - 9.3 (-0.6) Greens - 7.1 (-0.1) DL - 8.2 (+0.4) FDP - 5.9 (-0.1)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 16, 2017 7:55:23 GMT
Appalling numbers for the Greens, and the SPD and AfD appear to have die Linke caught in a pincer.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 16, 2017 8:16:57 GMT
Appalling numbers for the Greens, and the SPD and AfD appear to have die Linke caught in a pincer. I doubt AfD has anything but themselves in a pincer. The infighting only intensifies. The ex political adviser of Petry is very agressive towards Petry and her husband and pretty ask to members to putsch her out.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 16, 2017 9:46:03 GMT
Appalling numbers for the Greens, and the SPD and AfD appear to have die Linke caught in a pincer. The Schultz surge screwed them over, especially considering they are going more centrist/professional this election so are basically fighting for the same voters. I'm somewhat content in the fact the leakage has stopped and am still hopeful they can claw back up to a couple of percent from the SPD to get 3rd/4th on a low vote share. Die Linke are doing pretty poor considering the falling vote share for the AFD should have went back to them but obviously didn't and like the Greens they have lost votes to the SPD.
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Post by Foggy on Apr 16, 2017 22:04:51 GMT
Greens on 12% in Schleswig-Holstein according to latest polls. That's important for their momentum heading into NRW elections the following week.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 18, 2017 2:13:30 GMT
AbErrations of FinalPolls in NorthRhine-WestFalen per party:
0.71% ForschungsgruppeWahlen 0.75% Civey (in "Spiegel"-magazine; a local company?) 0.76% InfratestDimap 1.05% INSA 1.76% Forsa (conducted already in April) 2.02% YouGov
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 18, 2017 10:59:24 GMT
In all 3 RegionalElections "ForschungsgruppeWahlen" polled best:
Schleswig-Holstein:
0.61% ForschungsgruppeWahlen 1.14% INSA 1.26% InfratestDimap 2.14% Forsa (April 2016!)
Saarland:
1.32% FgW 1.85% INSA 1.88% InfratestDimap 2.02% Forsa (November 2016)
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 19, 2017 8:24:46 GMT
Both manifestos have been launched, both excluding taxes so far, both focussing on security (no surprise) and education (surprise).
CDU-NrW's Laschet - as a LeftCatholic initially supporting the "refugees welcome"-policy - turned to law&order during the campaign with some success, so CDU might see a chance to rebrand Merkel, too. That SPD intends to play on a field, where they are highly divided, is rather a miracle. Do they expect another invasion in the next months?
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 29, 2017 20:09:05 GMT
Polling Average - Most recent poll from every pollster - 15th-29th May - (changes from mid March-mid April average):
CDU/CSU - 37.6% (+3%) SPD - 25.7% (-5.2%) FDP - 8.6% (+2.7%) DL - 8.3% (+0.1%) AFD - 8.1% (-1.2%) Greens - 7.3% (+0.2%)
SPD are most of the way back to the pre-Schulz surge position while the CDU are polling above their numbers even pre-Schultz. The FDP are having their own mini-surge and look to be guaranteed a place back in the Bundestag this September. AFD still falling and the Greens look to have bottomed out and pulling back slightly (touch wood). Most interesting, Jamaica coalition has a majority, and if trends continued you would get close on CDU and FDP alone.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 29, 2017 20:22:47 GMT
Those FDP numbers are incredible. What a comeback if that comes off.
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Post by BossMan on May 29, 2017 20:57:07 GMT
Those FDP numbers are incredible. What a comeback if that comes off. There is an FDP 10% in today's poll. No more Fast Drei Prozent.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 29, 2017 20:59:13 GMT
Those FDP numbers are incredible. What a comeback if that comes off. There is an FDP 10% in today's poll. No more Fast Drei Prozent. Some footage of Westerwelle's insane "18%" campaign from 2002:
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 31, 2017 2:01:12 GMT
MecklenbugVorpommern's FM will be replaced (cancer) by federal FamilyMinistress Schwesig. Would fit to "Internaional politics", but she'll be replaced by the PartyChairwoman, who will be replaced by Heil, the RightWinger already on this position a decade ago.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 2, 2017 1:40:41 GMT
Both manifestos have been launched, both excluding taxes so far, both focussing on security (no surprise) And indeed, Schulz played - together with LowerSaxony's HomeSecretary - the tough Law&Order-guy. Gabriel made this consistently&convincingly (though probably only for the old WorkingClass still favourable to SPD), but Schulz?
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