Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 13, 2020 21:14:21 GMT
Back on topic results are starting to come in from Wisconsin.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 13, 2020 21:51:27 GMT
The primary has been called for Biden by the NYT. A healthy delegate haul - it would not have gotten him much momentum/positive media coverage had Sanders still been in the race because of the irregularities, but the sooner Biden gets to 1,991 delegates, the easier it will be for him to unite the party. If states absolutely need to cancel their primaries for whatever reason and Biden already has 1,991 delegates, this gives them a glide path to avoid accusations of rigging the election in Biden's favour.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 13, 2020 21:52:52 GMT
With 15% reporting Biden is up 65-29 and is even ahead of Sanders in Dane County (Madison). Had Sanders not already withdrawn the pressure on him to do so would have ratcheted up considerably.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 13, 2020 21:56:35 GMT
With 15% reporting Biden is up 65-29 and is even ahead of Sanders in Dane County (Madison). Had Sanders not already withdrawn the pressure on him to do so would have ratcheted up considerably. I'm not sure it would have - he'd have the credible defence of his base being targeted more heavily by Wisconsin Republicans than any other state party. Equally, if Sanders had bbeen winning by this margin, Biden would be able to escape a negative media cycle by arguing the skewed distribution of open polling locations/absentee ballots had denied him a win. The delegate maths would have added to the pressure on Sanders, but I strongly suspect the efforts to get him to drop out wouldn't have been redoubled until he was beaten in another large state with a well-run election - presumably, Ohio.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 13, 2020 21:58:50 GMT
With 15% reporting Biden is up 65-29 and is even ahead of Sanders in Dane County (Madison). Had Sanders not already withdrawn the pressure on him to do so would have ratcheted up considerably. I'm not sure it would have - he'd have the credible defence of his base being targeted more heavily by Wisconsin Republicans than any other state party. Equally, if Sanders had bbeen winning by this margin, Biden would be able to escape a negative media cycle by arguing the skewed distribution of open polling locations/absentee ballots had denied him a win. The delegate maths would have added to the pressure on Sanders, but I strongly suspect the efforts to get him to drop out wouldn't have been redoubled until he was beaten in another large state with a well-run election - presumably, Ohio. I think he’d already made the decision; if you look at his Tweets on primary day they were exclusively aimed at GOTV for Jill Karlofsky in the Supreme Court race rather than himself.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Apr 14, 2020 11:23:24 GMT
Milwaukee county has gone from being the only county Sanders lost in 2016 to what looks like his best this year, underlining the difference between his white and fairly rural 2016 coalition and his urban and minority heavy 2020 coalition.
Given that Sanders campaign de facto ended on 17 March, and arguably earlier with the decision not to engage in GOTV efforts for the 17 March states, it doesn't fully reflect his coalition, but it's still telling.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Apr 14, 2020 13:04:46 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2020 13:12:54 GMT
So Trump will win in the electoral college
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 14, 2020 13:36:21 GMT
So Trump will win in the electoral college This is a state-specific poll rather than a national lead of 5 points; Trump won AZ by 4% last time. It doesn't reflect an equal swing nationally, but I would expect a 5 point win in Arizona to translate to a probable electoral college victory and OHPI has traditionally leant slightly Republican relative to the results in Arizona. More recent polling that caught my eye was this: Dire figures like the one above are part of why I don't believe Maine-AL is a potential tipping point state (i.e. almost as winnable for Trump as Minnesota or NH); despite Biden having apparent weakness in the northeast relative to other regions, it seems to have swung hard to the Democrats since 2016 and surely some of Collins' decline correlates with Republican weakness in the presidential contest. That said, it doesn't help that Trump seems to dislike her and delights in painting her moderate aesthetic as ineffective within her own party (c.f. him laughing off her 'learnt his lesson' defence of voting against impeachment).
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Apr 14, 2020 13:42:24 GMT
So Trump will win in the electoral college You can't deduce anything about the EC from a state poll, but losing AZ would make winning the EC quite hard for Trump. If Biden gains PA/MI/AZ he has won.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 14, 2020 13:55:20 GMT
I find it very hard to imagine Biden winning Arizona but not winning the electoral college.
As for Collins, her approval ratings are somewhat misleading. Her overall numbers are dragged down because she only gets 68% approval among GOP voters. However most of the 32% that disapprove of her will still vote for her over a democrat. There is no doubt that he cross party appeal is severely diminished but it isn't completely gone (she gets 20% approval from Democrats) and still has at least 50/50 chance in my view.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 14, 2020 14:03:26 GMT
So Trump will win in the electoral college You can't deduce anything about the EC from a state poll, but losing AZ would make winning the EC quite hard for Trump. If Biden gains PA/MI/AZ he has won. You can deduce less than from national polls, but most states swing the same way in a GE, with trends diverging primarily in the differing magnitudes of these swings. If Biden's won AZ by 9 points (a 4.5% two-party swing), I'd be a bit surprised for him to simultaneously miss out on a swing 8% of that size in Michigan and Pennsylvania. It's not completely unrealistic, but unlikely given his relative weakness amongst Hispanic voters. Richard Allen A narrow AZ win is absolutely possible in the context of a Biden EC loss. Biden will be boosted a few points by Mark Kelly's candidacy, and the 2018 Senate result was only so close because the turnout was tilted much more heavily towards people who'd voted for Trump than it had been in the 2016 election (the turnout in presidential races is likely to be even more Democrat-friendly than it ended up being in 2018 because of this). The AZ Democratic Party also relies more on oldschool moderation than e.g. Wisconsin; Biden may be a better fit for its traditional base, despite losing amongst Hispanic voters. It will probably vote to the left of FL and NC, and it could turn out a more successful result for Biden than two states out of WI, MI, PA and MN.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 14, 2020 14:29:27 GMT
I find it very hard to imagine Biden winning Arizona but not winning the electoral college. As for Collins, her approval ratings are somewhat misleading. Her overall numbers are dragged down because she only gets 68% approval among GOP voters. However most of the 32% that disapprove of her will still vote for her over a democrat. There is no doubt that he cross party appeal is severely diminished but it isn't completely gone (she gets 20% approval from Democrats) and still has at least 50/50 chance in my view. I agree that she has some hidden strengths, but the bolded part has relevance - many Trump voters may decide not to turn up for Collins, especially if she and/or Maine isn't given sufficient attention or respect from Trump. He'll almost certainly say a few kinds things about her between the barbs, but I could see him shirking campaigns for her in favour of helping other Senators and working the tipping point states he needs for his own re-election. Less was known about how Maine would respond to him in 2016, but IMO it's clear that in 2020, any change in hands could not be decisive at the presidential level either way - ME-02 isn't going to the Democrats unless they've already won elsewhere, and ME-AL isn't going to Trump unless he's already won elsewhere. Additionally, it should be noted that (especially in Maine) Trump support comes from people who are registered D and presumably some of that is baked into her approval rating among Democrats. As of last month, PPP had him with 12% approval and Collins with 10% approval from Democrats. I suspect this is something of an outlier and haven't been able to find any other Maine-only polls from 2020 that register approval ratings for both Collins and Trump, but in the head-to-head matchups, she only ran 1 point ahead of Trump (though her most likely opponent ran 5 points behind Biden and Sanders). I think she'll run slightly ahead of Trump in the end, but the race will become increasingly nationalised as the electoral cycle goes on. If Gideon gets more name ID and is the nominee as is likely, I would argue this race is lean D. Edit: the full figures for the Critical Insight poll have been published. Approval for Trump amongst Democrats is at 11%, so Collins still runs ahead of him. However, I strongly suspect the gap will shrink by election day (in large part due to polarisation) and would expect her to only outperform him by ~3%, though I think the presence of RCV is less likely to hurt her chances than his.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Apr 14, 2020 16:32:19 GMT
The endorsement everyone has been waiting for..
"Right now, we need Americans of goodwill to unite in a great awakening against a politics that too often has been characterized by corruption, carelessness, self-dealing, disinformation, ignorance, and just plain meanness."
and an almost Warren-esque phrase:
"We can't just tinker around the edges, we need to make real structural change."
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Apr 14, 2020 17:25:29 GMT
AVENGERS ASSEMBLE
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2020 20:00:04 GMT
The endorsement everyone has been waiting for.. "Right now, we need Americans of goodwill to unite in a great awakening against a politics that too often has been characterized by corruption, carelessness, self-dealing, disinformation, ignorance, and just plain meanness." and an almost Warren-esque phrase: "We can't just tinker around the edges, we need to make real structural change." Why didn't Obama make real structural change during his eight years in office?
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 14, 2020 20:22:57 GMT
The endorsement everyone has been waiting for.. "Right now, we need Americans of goodwill to unite in a great awakening against a politics that too often has been characterized by corruption, carelessness, self-dealing, disinformation, ignorance, and just plain meanness." and an almost Warren-esque phrase: "We can't just tinker around the edges, we need to make real structural change." Why didn't Obama make real structural change during his eight years in office? GOP-controlled Congress after the first mid-terms didn't help.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 14, 2020 20:24:15 GMT
The endorsement everyone has been waiting for.. "Right now, we need Americans of goodwill to unite in a great awakening against a politics that too often has been characterized by corruption, carelessness, self-dealing, disinformation, ignorance, and just plain meanness." and an almost Warren-esque phrase: "We can't just tinker around the edges, we need to make real structural change." Why didn't Obama make real structural change during his eight years in office? Probably because he had a Republican controlled House of Representatives for six years and a Republican controlled Senate for the last two.
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Richard Allen
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Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 14, 2020 20:27:56 GMT
The endorsement everyone has been waiting for.. "Right now, we need Americans of goodwill to unite in a great awakening against a politics that too often has been characterized by corruption, carelessness, self-dealing, disinformation, ignorance, and just plain meanness." and an almost Warren-esque phrase: "We can't just tinker around the edges, we need to make real structural change." Why didn't Obama make real structural change during his eight years in office? Real structural changes need at least 60 votes in the US Senate (+ a majority in the House). Obama only had that to any degree for a 7 month period (the belated seating of Al Franken to the election of Scott Brown) and that included some pretty Conservative Democrats like Sen Ben Nelson of Nebraska.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 14, 2020 20:34:22 GMT
Why didn't Obama make real structural change during his eight years in office? Real structural changes need at least 60 votes in the US Senate (+ a majority in the House). Obama only had that to any degree for a 7 month period (the belated seating of Al Franken to the election of Scott Brown) and that included some pretty Conservative Democrats like Sen Ben Nelson of Nebraska. And even during the time he had 60 on paper in the Senate both Ted Kennedy and Robert Byrd were only able to attend and vote when they were the difference between breaking a filibuster, and IIRC he was also without Tim Johnson for a year after his cerebral haemorrhage.
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