mboy
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Post by mboy on Mar 20, 2020 12:02:17 GMT
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Post by adlai52 on Mar 20, 2020 12:21:23 GMT
Right now you would expect an initial boost or 'rally round the flag' effect for an incumbent, perhaps a parallel with Obama and Hurricane Sandy? Especially as the WH has upped their comms game after a bungled initial response - which was largely led by Trump. Medium term, a recession and any perceived mishandling of the response (especially if the rhetoric falls short of reality) will rebound on the incumbent. That would be the same for a Democrat or a Republican, rightly or wrongly. Another key part of how the response is perceived is the actions of congress and the state governments, right now it looks like the plan put together by the GOP in the Senate will fall somewhere short of what Democrats in the House will stomach and some state governments are showing signs of real strain. Suspect things will move quickly and be quite volatile, so worth looking back at what the polls say in late April/ May. Same for the UK. |
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nelson
Non-Aligned
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Post by nelson on Mar 20, 2020 12:28:35 GMT
Of course it remains to be seen how long a rally around the flag effect lasts and if the US enters a deep recession it will inevitably hurt Trump. He relies on being able to claim it's a short-term slump solely related to the pandemic. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Mar 20, 2020 12:43:09 GMT
According to her brother Tulsi Gabbard tried to endorse Bernie Sanders, but he refused to accept her support (which makes sense given her "present" vote on Trump's impeachment, dubious foreign connections and general rightward movement on socio-economic issues).
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 20, 2020 13:05:09 GMT
According to her brother Tulsi Gabbard tried to endorse Bernie Sanders, but he refused to accept her support (which makes sense given her "present" vote on Trump's impeachment, dubious foreign connections and general rightward movement on socio-economic issues). Sounds slightly dubious, you can’t stop somebody endorsing you (ergo Nick Griffin endorsing Boris on his first London Mayoral campaign), but equally why then endorse Biden - she’s got no influence, only two delegates, she could sit on her hands as Elizabeth Warren has and just tepidly endorse Biden in the name of party unity after he officially becomes the candidate. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2020 14:00:19 GMT
If the Republicans were like the Conservatives and the Democrats were like Labour, who would win where?
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 21, 2020 14:15:58 GMT
If the Republicans were like the Conservatives and the Democrats were like Labour, who would win where? Labour would likely still be strong in Democratic areas like New York, New Jersey, California. It’s tough to make a guess for the Conservatives as they’re not (thankfully) as socially right wing - you can count the pro-choice elected Republicans literally on one hand, and the Conservatives are much more sensible on gun control - but issues like that are such dealbreakers in the South East and the Dust Belt. I guess the Conservatives are moderate enough to keep Virginia competitive, maybe even Oregon, but I doubt either would please the remainder of the Old Confederacy. |
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 21, 2020 16:23:21 GMT
If the Republicans were like the Conservatives and the Democrats were like Labour, who would win where? Interesting. I've certainly had American acquaintances saying that all our politicians sound like varieties of Democrat to them. |
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Post by curiousliberal on Mar 21, 2020 17:11:36 GMT
The Connecticut and Maryland primaries scheduled for April 28 and the Indiana primary scheduled for May 5 have been pushed back to June 2.
Under current rules, they may get a delegate bonus for holding their primaries later. June 2 is becoming an increasingly important date on the calendar, with almost 600 delegates to be pledged then.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2020 17:25:02 GMT
If the Republicans were like the Conservatives and the Democrats were like Labour, who would win where? Labour would sweep (most of) the North East Coast, as well as urban areas like Austin, the Twin Cities, San Francisco and surrounding area, Seattle, Madison, Milwaukee, Detroit etc. possibly LA and Denver. They would also probably keep the Democrats strength amongst Native Americans and probably with higher turnout. The Conservatives would win the rural Mid West and West and some suburban areas by thumping margins. They would also run well in NH and rural ME, CT and RI. The LibDems would do well in a weird mix of Miami-Dade, suburban parts of more liberal areas (D.C., NY, Californian cities) and racist bits of the south where I could see their talent for localism working well and people would be disillusioned with the Tories. UKIP and their predecessors would also do well in those areas for obvious reasons. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2020 17:25:21 GMT
If the Republicans were like the Conservatives and the Democrats were like Labour, who would win where? Interesting. I've certainly had American acquaintances saying that all our politicians sound like varieties of Democrat to them. I think the Conservatives would do a lot better in the Northeast than the current Republican Party. Perhaps Maine and New Hampshire would go to them, and Connecticut might be competitive. Obviously California would be a Momentum stronghold. The Greens would make a play for parts of San Francisco. I think the Lib Dems would make a play for states where one of the big two is very weak at the federal level like Massachusetts and Vermont. |
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Mar 21, 2020 21:50:06 GMT
I think surprisingly little would change tbh. The Conservatives would be stronger across the North East, particularly the socially liberal and very wealthy suburbs in New York, New Jersey, New Hampshire and Connecticut. Very little upside for Labour here outside upstate New York. In the Rust Belt, states like Ohio would be much better for Labour. Some competing movement in states like Minnesota and Wisconsin, with Labour doing worse in rural areas but better in the more industrial parts. Iowa would never have been competitive. West Virginia would be Labour friendly while Kentucky would be a toss up. Labour probably do even worse than the Democrats across the south as I doubt they would do much better with poorish rural whites (think Lincolnshire) while they would be weaker with blacks (particular rural ones). Florida is definitely not a swing state. The Mid West would obviously be Conservative and I can’t see states like Colorado and Arizona being competitive. Weirdly, Utah might be competitive due to the lack of moral issues competition between Labour and the Conservatives. Nevada probably wouldn’t move much. California would be better for the Conservatives, particularly the rural and suburban areas, but still comfortably Labour. Oregon and Washington should still lean Labour.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2020 22:46:29 GMT
I think surprisingly little would change tbh. The Conservatives would be stronger across the North East, particularly the socially liberal and very wealthy suburbs in New York, New Jersey, New Hampshire and Connecticut. Very little upside for Labour here outside upstate New York. In the Rust Belt, states like Ohio would be much better for Labour. Some competing movement in states like Minnesota and Wisconsin, with Labour doing worse in rural areas but better in the more industrial parts. Iowa would never have been competitive. West Virginia would be Labour friendly while Kentucky would be a toss up. Labour probably do even worse than the Democrats across the south as I doubt they would do much better with poorish rural whites (think Lincolnshire) while they would be weaker with blacks (particular rural ones). Florida is definitely not a swing state. The Mid West would obviously be Conservative and I can’t see states like Colorado and Arizona being competitive. Weirdly, Utah might be competitive due to the lack of moral issues competition between Labour and the Conservatives. Nevada probably wouldn’t move much. California would be better for the Conservatives, particularly the rural and suburban areas, but still comfortably Labour. Oregon and Washington should still lean Labour. I think Colorado might still be competitive. The Democrat vote seems to be more left-wing than it is at large - it's one of the few states to vote for Sanders in '16 and '20 - and its demographics of poor, rural whites, rural Hispanic and Native voters and city-centre voters would be friendly to Labour in an American setting. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 21, 2020 23:59:27 GMT
I think Colorado might still be competitive. The Democrat vote seems to be more left-wing than it is at large - it's one of the few states to vote for Sanders in '16 and '20 - and its demographics of poor, rural whites, rural Hispanic and Native voters and city-centre voters would be friendly to Labour in an American setting. Colorado is actually a lot more urban, wealthy and white than people think. The recent Democratic trend is confined to the Denver metro and a few small tourist areas. Compared to present, I can’t really see where Labour would do better, but they would do much worse in the suburbs and to some extent with rural Hispanics, in the tourist areas etc. Maybe competitive in a good year, but it seems the sort of state that can only be favourable to the left in an American style party system (the opposite of a place like West Virginia). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2020 0:57:44 GMT
The Conservatives could do well in a state like Maryland. They do elect moderate Republican Governors.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 23, 2020 14:25:41 GMT
Democrats should be ashamed of themselves for blocking important funding for ordinary people. I hope this comes back to bite them in November (if there are elections). Or McConnell should be ashamed of himself for holding a show vote that he knew would fail whilst his staff, the Democrats and the Treasury Department were still in negotiations on a mutually acceptable package. But then McConnell is too busy sucking up to Trump to keep his wife in her job to actually show leadership. And it’s got to be a pretty crappy bill if McConnell can’t even get Doug Jones or Joe Manchin to back it. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 23, 2020 14:30:55 GMT
Democrats should be ashamed of themselves for blocking important funding for ordinary people. I hope this comes back to bite them in November (if there are elections). Oh please. There are hardly any US voters looking at this site so cut out this idiocy. |
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nelson
Non-Aligned
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Post by nelson on Mar 23, 2020 14:53:29 GMT
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Post by adlai52 on Mar 23, 2020 14:58:29 GMT
Democrats should be ashamed of themselves for blocking important funding for ordinary people. I hope this comes back to bite them in November (if there are elections). Or McConnell should be ashamed of himself for holding a show vote that he knew would fail whilst his staff, the Democrats and the Treasury Department were still in negotiations on a mutually acceptable package. But then McConnell is too busy sucking up to Trump to keep his wife in her job to actually show leadership. And it’s got to be a pretty crappy bill if McConnell can’t even get Doug Jones or Joe Manchin to back it. The irony of Mich McConnell - of all people - accusing anyone of playing politics at a time of national crisis shouldn't be lost of anyone. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 23, 2020 15:16:48 GMT
Democrats should be ashamed of themselves for blocking important funding for ordinary people. I hope this comes back to bite them in November (if there are elections). Or McConnell should be ashamed of himself McConnell is incapable of shame. He is truly amoral. |
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