Post by greenhert on Jan 6, 2017 1:16:15 GMT
NB: Unlike most alternative history scenarios in this forum, this is set in the future and therefore none of the events depicted can have happened yet. As this is fictional, many names of real people have been changed.
An example of what if the Green Party won a UK general election in future
Greens for TwentyTwenty
Prologue:
The year 2020 AD, in not so Great Britain. These were dark, difficult, and very uncertain times. The economy was in another downward spiral after Britain left the European Union and with it the single market; whatever trade deals they had cobbled together had not gone well. The effects of climate change were becoming more apparent, even in temperate climates like the one Britain was once accustomed to; flooding was frequent rather than exceptional and unseasonal heat waves and air pollution were getting more and more dangerous. The after-effects of unfairly imposed fracking operations were ruining several areas of British countryside, like Sherwood Forest and the Yorkshire Moors. Labour, under 'posh leftie' Julian Raven, was too disorganised and out of touch to make any challenge to the current Conservative PM, Donna Grey, despite the last year of Mrs Grey's tenure, and since Mr Raven was first elected as Labour leader he was getting worse even outside of the media attacks. The Liberal Democrats under Paul Winstanley were in no real position to challenge either, since they were only recovering in a few select areas and Mr Winstanley's refusal to rule out a future coalition with the Conservatives had put off many former supporters who had deserted the Liberal Democrats not too long ago. With Britain having formally left the EU, UKIP had torn itself apart when the infighting which had plagued local groups of councillors got too much, particularly when their key raison d'etre had disappeared; their support was once again scattered between the English Democrats and a few other 'racist right' groups, including the BNP, the NF, Patria, and Liberty GB, as it had sometimes been in their previous days. And the 2018 review of Parliamentary constituencies, which many of the public did not really care about having other important issues on their minds (ranging from genuinely important issues like the state of the economy and NHS to just entertaining things as soap operas and the latest comedy from Alan Carr) seemed to have unwittingly set in place a future of near-perpetual Conservative dominance, just as media commentators believed it would.
However, there remained one political force in Britain, one which stood outside the mainstream and always had, but which was one whose head was nevertheless screwed on, and one which promised real change and could give the people hope...
Step forward, the Green Party.
Chapter One-Election Night:
It was quite the election campaign despite lasting only four weeks for the short campaign. It was a gruelling, shoe-destroying, pavement-pounding campaign, for all parties, but in the Greens' case their campaigning was paying off most in spite of the difficulties they faced. The Greens were surging due to a combination of economic collapse following Britain leaving the EU, which was blamed on Donna Grey's mishandling of the whole case, Labour's general ineptitude, the distrust of the Liberal Democrats which Paul Winstanley had not properly cured, a need for a protest vote that was fresh and would not bring a return of the same old story, and the increasing consequences of what was happening when the planet's needs were being neglected or abused. Alan Greene-Hart, the current Green Party leader, could not have been more pleased even if in Britain he could not quite get the Green Party to the dizzy heights of popularity the SNP enjoyed back in 2015 in Scotland. After so many years of struggling to even get £500 deposits returned, after many years of being dismissed as a fringe party which only cared about the environment and not other things, this was the moment he had been waiting for, and had worked hard for.
In the midst of great change, the little things would still be around. Polling stations were still closing at 10pm and only open on Thursday, for example. Mr Greene-Hart had little time to properly notice, having worked flat out in his home constituency of Nottingham West & Beeston, a rather awkward constituency that had only come about due to the new rules for drawing new constituencies, which chiefly specified that their electorate could not deviate more than 5% from the average and that there would specifically be 600, and only 600, until the law was changed. He could, however, rest a little bit once he had go to Nottingham City Hall for the count (Nottingham formed the larger half of Nottingham West & Beeston, unlike the Cheltenham suburbs of the equally new Tewkesbury & Cheltenham North). It would be a long time, since turnout had risen to a heady 75% across the whole of the UK, which had not been seen since the heated election of 1992, before the official result would come, and Mr Greene-Hart's first attempt was proof of this back in 2015.
His relative youth, his energy, his honesty and passion were paying dividends amongst core Green voters, dissatisfied protest voters, and voters ambling for real change from the Conservatives alike. The exit polls were showing the Greens as high as 37%, with the Conservatives trailing on 28%, Labour on 19%, the Liberal Democrats on just 9%, and the others 7% (including the SNP and Plaid Cymru, with the English Democrats struggling to hit 1% despite UKIP being no more). Potentially, the Greens could get a majority due to the flaws of FPTP which Mr Greene-Hart disliked so much, or at least be the largest party. By any standards, Nottingham West & Beeston was marginal, and he was starting from an average Green base at best, to he needed to pay attention to the count, which was never going to be as quick as that in Sunderland.
He did have time to view the election night special broadcast, though, as did the other candidates who stood against him. He got rather excited when the first result was being announced by Robin Gimble:
'Well, hello, everyone, we have just heard that Sunderland is once again the first city to declare its constituency results, with Sunderland Central coming in fastest. It's got a rather small electorate, only just above the minimum of 71,000, and yet it's been unchanged in the boundary changes that will take effect for this general election. The candidates are just coming to the stage now and we've been told this will almost certainly be a Green gain. Here's the returning officer with the declaration.'
And sure enough, the Chief Executive of Sunderland City Council, John Marshdale, said, 'I, the undersigned, being the returning officer for the constituency of Sunderland Central, do hereby give notice that the total number of votes cast for each candidate was as follows. Thomas Jack Allason, the Conservative Party Candidate, 9,057 <applause>. Julie Elliott, Labour Party, 16,528 <applause>. Rachel Featherstone, Green Party, twenty thousand...' Wild cheers were coming up from the Green Party crowd in amazement, given how solidly Labour Sunderland had been in living memory. 'Let me repeat that. Rachel Featherstone, Green Party, 20,449 votes. Garrett Richards, Liberal Democrats, 1,134 <mild applause>. Francis Rowlands, known as Frank Rowlands, English Democrats-Putting England First, 928 votes. I do hereby declare Rachel Featherstone duly elected as Member of Parliament for the Sunderland Central constituency.'
As Ms Featherstone made her victory speech, Mr Gimble displayed the astonishing figures as his predecessor once had. 'And here are the figures for Sunderland Central:'
Sunderland Central-GREEN GAIN FROM LABOUR
Green 20,449 42.5% +38.4%
Labour 16,528 34.4% -16.3%
Conservative 9,057 18.8% -4.9%
Liberal Democrat 1,134 2.4% -0.2%
English Democrats 928 1.9%
Green majority of 3,981 (8.1%)
'As you can see, it is a truly enormous swing from Labour to Green, as high as 27.3%, delivering a Green majority of nearly four thousand, swings we are nevertheless familiar with since the time the SNP routed Labour in Scotland at the last general election. The Green Party has astonishingly not only saved its deposit for the first time in this constituency but it has actually won the seat convincingly. Labour is set to lose many, many more seats like this. The Conservative vote hasn't been hit too badly, although they've never really been competitive here anyway. The Liberal Democrats lose their deposit for the second time in a row, and they are not too far ahead of the English Democrats either.'
Alan Greene-Hart had never felt so elated. He knew even from the first batch of results that the Green Party was on its way up. Up, up, and away in a greenhouse gas free balloon, in a manner of speaking, and on their way to a majority or a strong minority from having just one seat before that election. As the count went on, Green gains were flashing in and out off the screen: Green gain York Central, Green gain Leeds North, Green gain Lewisham West, Green gain Norwich South, Green gain Norwich North, interspersed with such things as Conservative hold Hertford & Stortford, Liberal Democrats gain Eastbourne, Liberal Democrats gain Southport (which had been made notionally Conservative by boundary changes so Mr Gimble counted it as a gain), and Labour hold Doncaster. He also knew quite a few MPs who would not be coming back simply due to the effects of boundary changes and consequent re-selection battles, such as Bill Wiggin, formerly Conservative MP for Herefordshire North fka Leominster until it was broken into three like spaghetti, and Jo Stevens, whose Cardiff Central constituency was one of 11 Welsh constituencies abolished in the process of all these changes. Just at that moment, the cameras cut to Cardiff South East, which would result in one of only two Green Party gains in Wales. Cardiff's Lord Mayor Llinos Gurney reached the stage and said, 'Thank you, everyone, for your patience. I now have the result for the Cardiff South East constituency for the 2020 Parliamentary election. I now declare that the votes cast were as follows. Doughty, Stephen. Labour Party Candidate. 14,374. Emerson, Lynette Mary. Liberal Democrats. 5,440. Harris, Michael Rhys. Independent. 249 votes. Jamieson, Colin Laurence. Conservative Party Candidate. 7,118. Powell, Merlin Thomas. Plaid Cymru.-the Party of Wales, 4,424. Williams, Camilla Ellen, Green Party/Plaid Werdd, 24,250. The number of rejected ballot papers was 250, and I hereby declare Camilla Ellen Williams duly elected to serve as Member of Parliament for Cardiff South East.' This was followed by a splendour of cheering from Cardiff Green Party supporters and general members of the public alike. Millie, as she was known, was one of the most popular young female politicians in Britain and particularly in urban areas of Wales. The only reason she did not do quite as well as hoped was due to Plaid Cymru winning over some potential Green voters and sometimes Plaid and Green split the anti-Labour/anti-Conservative vote. Also, Cardiff South East had carried the less affluent but more radical areas of Cardiff Central to combine with the Cardiff South part of Cardiff South & Penarth; Cardiff Central's staid, middle class areas went to an expanded Cardiff North instead.
Robin Gimble was not too surprised, given how Labour were falling apart in Wales the way they had done in Scotland, even if not to exactly the same extent (Rhondda & Llantrisant not withstanding). The figures were stark:
Cardiff South East-GREEN GAIN FROM LABOUR
Green 24,250 43.4% +37.0%
Labour 14,374 25.7% -18.0%
Conservative 7,118 12.7% -5.3%
Liberal Democrats 5,440 9.7% -7.1%
Plaid Cymru 4,424 7.9% +2.8%
Independent 249 0.4%
Green majority 9,876 (17.7%)
-and the swing was as impressive as that in Sunderland Central, really more so with more Liberal Democrat votes notionally up for grabs. Turnout had shot up to 75% and Mrs Williams had truly inspired many of the poorer people along the docks of Cardiff. Even at least somewhat green-minded Conservative seats were not entirely immune from the Greens, as their gains of Totnes, Malvern & Ledbury, Stowmarket, Ludlow & Leominster, Hereford, Southampton Test, Portsmouth South, Bath, and both seats of the Isle of Wight showed, even if the majorities were often in the hundreds, not thousands. In the cases of the first four Labour did so badly they lost their deposit.
Ludlow & Leominster-GREEN GAIN FROM CON
Green 25,979 43.2% +34.7%
Conservative 25,058 41.7% -12.3%
Liberal Democrats 7,249 12.1% -2.8%
Labour 1,804 3.0% -8.0%
Green majority 921 (1.5%)
Bath-GREEN GAIN FROM CON
Green 24,055 39.0% +28.5%
Liberal Democrats 18,164 29.5% +2.7%
Conservative 16,222 26.3% -12.2%
Labour 3,203 5.2% -10.2%
Green majority 5,891 (9.5%)
The woman who had been, up until a spectacular Oxford East by-election gain the previous year, their solitary MP, Diana Samuels, was returned in Brighton West with a hitherto unbelievable majority of more than 20,000 and on a turnout of 80% to boot:
Brighton West-Green hold
Green 34,814 60.1% +22.6%
Conservative 10,348 17.9% -6.0%
Labour 10,020 17.3% -13.5%
Liberal Democrats 2,494 4.3% +1.4%
Independent 179 0.3%
Socialist GB 101 0.2% +0.0
Green majority 24,466 (42.2%)
Even Bristol West's new Green MP, an Afro-British artist and musician called Leonora Nyarambe, could not quite achieve a 20,000 majority, having to settle for an otherwise excellent majority of 15,000 over Labour. The Greens only achieved a distant second in Maidenhead, not that Donna Grey could have lost it even with what was happening nationally.
Maidenhead-Conservative hold
Conservative 31,550 57.8% -8.1%
Green 8,966 16.4% +12.8%
Liberal Democrats 6,830 12.5% +2.6%
Independents for Maidenhead 3,880 7.1%
Labour 3,012 5.5% -6.4%
Others 300 0.5%
Conservative majority 22,584 (41.4%)
Westmorland-Liberal Democrat hold
Liberal Democrats 31,595 51.8% +1.8%
Conservative 15,578 25.5% -9.8%
Green 12,762 20.9% +17.1%
Labour 993 1.6% -3.6%
Independent 98 0.2%
Liberal Democrat majority 16,017 (26.3%)
Islington North-Labour hold
Labour 26,177 43.2% -15.8%
Green 25,108 41.4% +31.5%
Conservative 5,472 9.0% -8.7%
Liberal Democrats 3,035 5.0% -4.1%
Independent Democratic Labour 600 1.0%
Others 201 0.3%
That last one felt disappointing if not surprising to the Greens. Other results kept rolling in until finally, at 6am, Mr Greene-Hart was told by one of his colleagues that the counting had finished and that the candidates needed to reach the returning officer quickly. The Conservatives had been hoping to capitalise on Labour's woes in this half-city half-suburb hybrid constituency despite the new Green surge, particularly since they had not been too far behind Labour in the seat's closest predecessor, Nottingham South, compared to Nottingham East and Nottingham North, both of which would become gains for the Green Party as well. Since Mr Greene-Hart was Green Party leader and now according to exit polls likely to become the new Prime Minister even if he could not achieve an outright single party majority, the cameras were all flashing on him, as were the latest iPhones from journalists. He said, 'I am so pleased that voters from all sides and of all types are warming over to the Green message. It's one we'll all need to take to heart if we are to prosper again, and make sure we can live in a stable, sustainable environment. We're all ultimately dependent on Earth, after all, like all living things. And that's just one point I wish to make.' Lord Deverell, Mayor of Nottingham interrupted to say, 'all candidates straight up to the stage, please!' Mr Greene-Hart waited in anticipation....
'I, Lord Deverell, the Mayor of Nottingham and acting returning officer for the Nottingham West & Beeston constituency, do hereby give notice that the number of votes cast for each candidate was as follows. David Laurence Bishop, Bus Pass Elvis Party, 117. June Elizabeth Carpenter, the Conservative Party Candidate, 18,986 <cheering>. Ophelia Shannon Cunningham, Liberal Democrats, 1,234 <light applause>. David Jack Ellis, English Democrats-Putting England First, 572 <scattered and light applause>. Jolyon Richard Francis, the Communist Party Candidate, 110. Stephen Keith Fuller, Labour Party, 13,256 <cheering>. Danielle Gordon, Animal Welfare Party, 145.' Then came the momentous 'Alan Greene-Hart, Green Party, 20,088' to loud cheering that drowned out the ennobled mayor's voice, problematic since he had not actually finished yet. After he had had a minute to recompose himself, he then went on with 'Roving Robin Hood, Official Monster Raving Loony Party, 300 <cheering>. And Martin Howard Jonathan Lee, Independent, 789. The number of rejected ballot papers was as follows: want of official mark: 0, voting for more candidates than voter was entitled to: 70; writing or mark by which voter could be identified: 10; being unmarked or wholly void for uncertainty: 79, total 159. I therefore declare that the said Alan Greene-Hart is duly elected as Member of Parliament for Nottingham West & Beeston.'
Despite the wild cheering and applause that came with this, Mr Greene-Hart could still hear scattered booing and hissing from some of the very un-progressive and un-green members of the audience, even as he made his speech: 'People of Nottingham West & Beeston, this is such a momentous occasion of change, one I never believed we'd experience in our lives until just before now. I give my thanks to you for helping us all achieve this together, since we promise Green change within the course of the next 5 years I also wish to thank everyone who helped with my campaign, including the returning officer, the police, counting staff, and my colleagues. I am very grateful that you are open to a new voice, one that will be just as respectful as any MP should be but with a focus on things that really matter to us all, rather than the detached, wealthy elite.' Loud applause greeted this.
Meanwhile, Robin Gimble was showing the raw figures, which showed how tight a race this had been by the standards of other declarations he had seen:
Nottingham West & Beeston- GREEN GAIN FROM LABOUR
Green 20,088 36.1% +31.9%
Conservative 18,986 34.1% -4.4%
Labour 13,256 23.8% -18.4%
Liberal Democrats 1234 2.2% -1.0%
Others 2033 3.6%
Green majority 1,102 (2%)
'And so the Green Party leader takes Nottingham West & Beeston with a small majority of just 1,102. He had a very tough fight by any standards and was notionally starting from a low base, and there was heavy campaigning on all three sides which dampened the swing from Labour to Green. Well, the Liberal Democrats are still losing a lot of deposits even if clearly not on the same scale as 2015, and some seats they hoped to recapture a few years ago are now clearly in Green hands. Their only real solace in the East Midlands specifically is gaining Hinckley from the Conservatives, which had its name changed from Bosworth but is essentially the same constituency geographically. They came close in Ashfield some miles up the road from Nottingham West & Beeston, reducing the Labour majority to just 1,500, and have recovered second place in Chesterfield but not close to gaining the seat. The Greens haven't done that well in those 3 particular constituencies as a result of a locally organised Liberal Democrat squeeze in both those areas-only 4800 votes in Bosworth, 4100 in Ashfield and just over 5300 in Chesterfield, less than 10% of the vote in each case. The Greens might just scrape a majority since they have won a few seats outside England, those being Cardiff South East and Pembroke in Wales and Belfast South East in Northern Ireland with the SNP still rebuffing any Scottish Green efforts in Scotland. Any thoughts on this, Neil?' The Liberal Democrats' chairwoman, Vanessa Willott, who had then become the MP for Brecon, Radnor & Montgomery to make up for their loss of Ceredigion & Pembroke North to Plaid Cymru, replied 'I partly blame first past the post which I understand the Green Party is just as keen to abolish as we've been for many decades. However, our targeting strategy is working even if we've only gained two seats we haven't held in the last 30 years, the seats being Hinckley in Leicestershire and Maidstone in Kent, because we are recovering in the South West overall and other select places despite the Green Party's gains there. I partly blame voters still not trusting our party and its moderate message because the memory of tuition fees lingers in many people's heads.'
Hinckley-LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON
Liberal Democrats 23,517 41.6% +19.3%
Conservative 20,220 35.7% -7.2%
Labour 5,019 8.9% -8.6%
Green 4,800 8.5%
English Democrats 1,211 2.1%
Liberal Democrat majority 3,297 (5.9%)
In the background, Alan Greene-Hart was seeing excited Tweets from his colleagues about all the Green gains that were coming in across the country, and the live updates from BBC News. He knew he had a job to do, though, once it had all been confirmed. Elections were not just about results and statistics-they were also about making sure the policies people wanted could be carried through and implemented.
Tonight was going to be a night to remember...
Chapter Two coming soon.
Note that 
