Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2017 6:07:16 GMT
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,784 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 5, 2017 11:10:27 GMT
Ward profile: To the north of the ward situated between Craufurdland Water to the west and the A77 motorway to the east If it's the A77 then it's not a motorway. The map makes it clear that you don't mean the M77 which is a motorway. |
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Eastwood
Non-Aligned
Politically restricted post
Posts: 2,122
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Post by Eastwood on Jan 5, 2017 13:34:11 GMT
Ward profile: To the north of the ward situated between Craufurdland Water to the west and the A77 bypass to the east is the council estate of New Farm Loch. The estate consists of rows of grim grey council housing, with some flats to the south. There are also a few mixed suburbs on the edges of the estate (at the very northern tip of the estate and to the west of the estate), with some more attractive villa properties in the south-east. This is a staunch area for the SNP who managed to take 44.3% of the vote in the New Farm Loch North & Dean ward at the 2003 council election and 58.5% of the vote in the New Farm Loch South ward at the 1999 council election. South of the railway line, the ward takes on a more suburban character towards the A77 and around London Road, with some frayed edges. It stretches west to cover part of Kilmarnock's relatively attractive, albeit highly deprived, town centre. At the 1999 and 2003 council elections this area, mostly covered by the Kilmarnock Central East ward, was a tight Labour-SNP marginal, going SNP by a majority of 12 votes in 1999 and Labour by a majority of 73 votes in 2003. Today, as with the vast majority of Kilmarnock, this area is SNP territory, though it is also the most Conservative-friendly part of the ward. Crossing the A77 to the south-east is the grim ex-coal mining village of Hurlford, and its adjoining hamlet of Crookedholm, which is mostly made-up of council housing. Traditionally Hurlford has been among the staunchest Labour strongholds in East Ayrshire, contrasting the SNP's traditional strength in New Farm Loch. In 2003 Hurlford delivered a thumping 70.6% Labour vote. Today it's safely in the SNP bracket, though Labour's underlying strength here could make itself known in this by-election. Kilmarnock East and Hurlford is a mostly working class ward which has traditionally been an important battleground between the SNP and Labour: though today, as with much of Scotland, it has trended heavily over to the SNP. We know that both Kilmarnock and Hurlford voted in favour of Scottish independence back in 2014, and my notionals suggest that this ward had a "Yes" vote of approximately 53% contrasting a wider No vote of 53% in the Scottish Parliament seat of Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley, which had a massive 55.4% SNP vote in 2016. I believe that this ward should return another SNP Councillor easily: the most important figure will be the Conservative vote - if they can get a high enough vote share here to win themselves a Councillor under normal circumstances (with all four wards up for grabs) that will be a very good sign for them. Given Conservative transfer unfriendliness round here you'd imagine they'd need to poll at least 15% 1st preferences to win the 4th seat in May. I'd imagine SNP will run 3 candidates in this ward and Labour 2. So the Conservative aim will be to be ahead of the 3rd SNP and 2nd Labour and hope to sneak in under the quota. Something like this on first prefs: SNP 26 SNP 26 Lab 17 Con 15 Lab 8 SNP 8 If SNP only run 2 candidates then it may make it more difficult for Con to take the 4th seat as more surplus SNP vote is likely to transfer to the 2nd Labour candidate. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jan 5, 2017 21:31:14 GMT
Could I ask why there is a by-election here when surely Scotland operates on the same system as Wales (explaining why no by-election in Cardiff)?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 5, 2017 21:35:05 GMT
Could I ask why there is a by-election here when surely Scotland operates on the same system as Wales (explaining why no by-election in Cardiff)? Because Cllr James Buchanan died on 28 October, before the six month moratorum began. |
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Post by killie1 on Jan 13, 2017 22:15:12 GMT
North New Farm Loch/ Dean Ward was SNP 44% Labour 32% in 2003 with a 15% share for an ex-LabourIndependent whilst New Farm Loch South was Labour 62% SNP 32% in 2003...agree whole ward has a much larger SNP support now
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 26, 2017 22:28:20 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 26, 2017 23:14:27 GMT
SNP hold.
Partial result:
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 26, 2017 23:27:18 GMT
East Ayrshire, Kilmarnock East & Hurlford - SNP hold - based on first preference votes | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | | SNP | 1,461 | 48.7% | +2.1% | +9.2% | Labour | 881 | 29.4% | -16.6% | -15.6% | Conservative | 602 | 20.1% | +12.7% | +12.4% | Libertarian | 53 | 1.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -5.4% | Solidarity |
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| -2.3% | Total votes | 2,997 |
| 68% | 46% |
Swing Labour to SNP 9.3% since 2012 and 12.4% since 2007 Council now 15 SNP, 14 Labour, 2 Conservative, 1 Independent
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2017 0:54:28 GMT
Yay! 😎👍
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 27, 2017 22:24:41 GMT
2-party preferred, if I've got it right, was SNP 1531 Lab 1122.
The preference profile is interesting:
SNP voters: 836 no further preference, 381 second preference Labour, 148 second preference Libertarian (!), 96 second preference Conservative.
Labour voters: 462 no further preference, 177 second preference SNP, 146 second preference Conservative, 96 second preference Libertarian.
Conservative voters: 302 no further preference, 182 second preference Labour, 61 second preference Libertarian, 57 second preference SNP.
Libertarian voters: 25 no further preference, 12 second preference Labour, 10 second preference SNP, 6 second preference Conservative (of which five had third preference Labour and one no further preference).
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Post by marksenior on Jan 27, 2017 23:28:00 GMT
Andrew , cannot get into your website . Never seen the reason given before anywhere On the internet
Cannot connect to database because: Connection using old(pre-4.1.1)authentification protocol refused ( client option secure_auth enabled)
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 27, 2017 23:48:28 GMT
Andrew , cannot get into your website . Never seen the reason given before anywhere On the internet Cannot connect to database because: Connection using old(pre-4.1.1)authentification protocol refused ( client option secure_auth enabled) Ditto, me |
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 28, 2017 0:17:40 GMT
Seems like my ISP has been messing around and broke some permissions. There's been no data loss. I'll try and fix it this weekend but I am away at the moment and have a train to catch first thing in the morning, so please bear with me.
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