Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815 
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 24, 2017 19:22:44 GMT
carlton43 was one of them, i think. I fear not Georg. I was a 2.5-5.0% from the start and did not waver. Ah, i remembered, that You had firmly expected a clear C-win, so... Not far away though! (I guessed only a narrow LAB-hold.) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 24, 2017 21:18:21 GMT
Looking at the official notional results for 2005, the addition of the Allerdale wards reduced Labour's majority from 6,320 (18.7%) to 5,157 (13.2%), reduced Labour's share from 50.5% to 46.7% and increased the Tory share from 31.7% to 33.5%. Effectively a 'swing' of 2.5% and given higher turnout and a stronger Tory performance in the area in the 1980s that probably does suggest it would have gone Tory then (but does not suggest that Labour would have held on last night on the old boundaries). Did any Labour spokesmen point out this 'fact' though to any politicla journalists? I didn't hear Barry Gardiner make that point last night though i did nod off for a little while. Why do you expect political journalists to do your spinning for you? Lets face it this is a minor change to what is fundamentally the same seat as has existed since 1918 and it's been acknowledged that though Labour have always held the seat since 1935 they have often done so narrowly. This is not like discussing the post 1983 Kettering seat as if it was the same seat that existed before then Why is it so unreasonable to expect senior professional journalists to know their stuff? The fact is that on present boundaries this seat would almost certainly have had a Tory MP for at least 9 years until 1992. The truth has effectively been significantly distorted - 'Seat goes Tory for first time since 1992' sounds much less dramatic. I always recall being appalled at the time of the July 2009 Norwich North by election - my own seat - when I came across a Guardian article written by Martin Kettle - whom I would have expected to know better. He was making comparisons between the very safe inner city Norwich North seat represented by David Ennals from 1974 to 1983 with the much larger seat created by the Boundary changes of 1983 /1997 as a result of which the constituency had become suburban and 65% in the Broadland District.No mention was made of these massive changes. He revealed his own ignorance and frankly treated his readers with contempt by writing such garbage. Well indeed in the Norwich case that is clearly garbage. Norwich North is actually a better example than Kettering. The boundary changes which took place in 1983 meant it was a notional Tory seat in 1979 (and I guess possibly previous years eg 1970) and was an actual Tory held seat from 1983 to 1997 when the boundary changes made the seat even more favourable for the Tories. A minority of the seat fought at the 2009 by-election came from the old Dave Ennals seat and anybody who was drawing comparisons between the two is indeed an idiot. But that isn't comparable to the situation in Copeland where the boundary changes were relatively minor and the political impact marginal. Sure it might/probably did mean that the seat would have gone Tory in 1983 and 1987 - very narrowly and in years when the Tories were winning 100+ seat majorities in parliament. I'd still point out that the Copeland district probably did give the Tories a plurality yesterday and that would be a first since 1931, but even if I were wrong on that point you are engaging in straw-clutching of Cat Smith like proportions. This was a seat Labour had won relatively easily in 2010 and 2015 when the party were only polling around 30% nationally and they lost it to a governing party two years into a parliament on a 7% swing. I don't know why you should expect any remotely impartial commentator to try and paint this as anything other than the total fucking disaster that it is |
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 24, 2017 21:36:17 GMT
Apologies if anyone has posted this already. Anthony Wells talking sense as usual. ukpollingreport.co.uk/On the right hand side of the page are cumulative national opinion poll figures. These are quite sufficient to reveal the current position, and state, of the Labour party. Large numbers of the politically involved and commentariat always get very hot under the collar, in their varied ways, about byelection results. What they actually tell us is far too limited to bear this attention. How long ago was it that the Liberal Democrats pulled off their victory at Richmond Park? Copeland and Stoke Central, taken together, confirm the polls. Labour are in deep do-do, and there is no sign or indication of improvement. UKIP are sagging somewhat. the Liberal Democrats are improving somewhat, patchily. And the Conservatives are currently soaring and in command. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 24, 2017 21:51:59 GMT
Looking at the official notional results for 2005, the addition of the Allerdale wards reduced Labour's majority from 6,320 (18.7%) to 5,157 (13.2%), reduced Labour's share from 50.5% to 46.7% and increased the Tory share from 31.7% to 33.5%. Effectively a 'swing' of 2.5% and given higher turnout and a stronger Tory performance in the area in the 1980s that probably does suggest it would have gone Tory then (but does not suggest that Labour would have held on last night on the old boundaries). Did any Labour spokesmen point out this 'fact' though to any politicla journalists? I didn't hear Barry Gardiner make that point last night though i did nod off for a little while. Why do you expect political journalists to do your spinning for you? Lets face it this is a minor change to what is fundamentally the same seat as has existed since 1918 and it's been acknowledged that though Labour have always held the seat since 1935 they have often done so narrowly. This is not like discussing the post 1983 Kettering seat as if it was the same seat that existed before then The fact is that on present boundaries this seat would almost certainly have had a Tory MP for at least 9 years until 1992. The truth has effectively been significantly distorted - 'Seat goes Tory for first time since 1992' sounds much less dramatic. I always recall being appalled at the time of the July 2009 Norwich North by election - my own seat - when I came across a Guardian article written by Martin Kettle - whom I would have expected to know better. He was making comparisons between the very safe inner city Norwich North seat represented by David Ennals from 1974 to 1983 with the much larger seat created by the Boundary changes of 1983 /1997 as a result of which the constituency had become suburban and 65% in the Broadland District.No mention was made of these massive changes. He revealed his own ignorance and frankly treated his readers with contempt by writing such garbage. Because they're pig-ignorant, and don't care. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Feb 24, 2017 23:08:42 GMT
Trudy Harrison apparently only joined the Conservative Party last autumn.
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Post by greenhert on Feb 24, 2017 23:14:08 GMT
The constituency of Workington will essentially cease to exist if the boundary changes go through, irrespective of whether the proposals are revised or not (partly due to the location of Workington within the county of Cumbria and the fact Penrith & the Border will need to expand greatly after losing its all its Carlisle wards to Carlisle itself). Also, Workington's Labour majority is more stable than Copeland's and is considerably further away from the Sellafield plant. |
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,689
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Post by Jack on Feb 24, 2017 23:14:56 GMT
Trudy Harrison apparently only joined the Conservative Party last autumn. There's hope for me yet! |
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Post by AdminSTB on Feb 24, 2017 23:20:12 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 24, 2017 23:24:38 GMT
Trudy Harrison apparently only joined the Conservative Party last autumn. Although she was a member of Bootle Parish Council (the one in Cumbria, not where Nuttall is from) in 2004-07. I guess co-opted, and it's a non-partisan parish council. |
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Copeland
Feb 24, 2017 23:46:06 GMT
via mobile
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 24, 2017 23:46:06 GMT
That sounds like Keeping the Dream Alive by Münchener Freiheit! |
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Post by La Fontaine on Feb 24, 2017 23:59:10 GMT
The constituency of Workington will essentially cease to exist if the boundary changes go through, irrespective of whether the proposals are revised or not (partly due to the location of Workington within the county of Cumbria and the fact Penrith & the Border will need to expand greatly after losing its all its Carlisle wards to Carlisle itself). Also, Workington's Labour majority is more stable than Copeland's and is considerably further away from the Sellafield plant. Workington itself is within easy commuting distance of Sellafield and many residents, some of whom I know, work there. The Tories must have a good chance of winning the proposed Workington & Whitehaven seat, which will likely be a contest between the current MPs for Allerdale and Copeland. Meanwhile Barrow could be lost and Carlisle will be out of reach. What a bleak prospect. |
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 25, 2017 0:04:14 GMT
That sounds like Keeping the Dream Alive by Münchener Freiheit! They were the German Eurovision entrants in 1993. Came 18th. |
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Post by lancastrian on Feb 25, 2017 0:20:26 GMT
The constituency of Workington will essentially cease to exist if the boundary changes go through, irrespective of whether the proposals are revised or not (partly due to the location of Workington within the county of Cumbria and the fact Penrith & the Border will need to expand greatly after losing its all its Carlisle wards to Carlisle itself). Also, Workington's Labour majority is more stable than Copeland's and is considerably further away from the Sellafield plant. Workington itself is within easy commuting distance of Sellafield and many residents, some of whom I know, work there. The Tories must have a good chance of winning the proposed Workington & Whitehaven seat, which will likely be a contest between the current MPs for Allerdale and Copeland. Meanwhile Barrow could be lost and Carlisle will be out of reach. What a bleak prospect. No chance of a Tory winning Workington and Whitehaven. Labour will have won Whitehaven yesterday and all the Tory bits of Allerdale would be in the Penrith seat. Should the boundary changes go through and Trudy Harrison wants to stay in parliament she will have to follow Bootle into the Barrow constituency. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 25, 2017 0:22:35 GMT
The constituency of Workington will essentially cease to exist if the boundary changes go through, irrespective of whether the proposals are revised or not (partly due to the location of Workington within the county of Cumbria and the fact Penrith & the Border will need to expand greatly after losing its all its Carlisle wards to Carlisle itself). Also, Workington's Labour majority is more stable than Copeland's and is considerably further away from the Sellafield plant. Workington itself is within easy commuting distance of Sellafield and many residents, some of whom I know, work there. The Tories must have a good chance of winning the proposed Workington & Whitehaven seat, which will likely be a contest between the current MPs for Allerdale and Copeland. Meanwhile Barrow could be lost and Carlisle will be out of reach. What a bleak prospect. Workington and Whitehaven is a lot safer for Labour than either Workington or Copeland. If the Conservatives win it at the next general election, then Labour would probably be well under 150 seats nationally. |
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Feb 25, 2017 0:36:16 GMT
The cause would have endured that bit longer had he not resigned mid-term, IMO. |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,843
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Post by Crimson King on Feb 25, 2017 11:14:59 GMT
That sounds like Keeping the Dream Alive by Münchener Freiheit! The hopes we had, were much too high Wau out of reach |
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Feb 25, 2017 11:56:10 GMT
I still find myself smiling frenziedly at random intervals thinking about the result in Copeland. It's a bit like the unexpectedly intense feeling of delight I felt when my nephew was born. The fact that there was a 7% swing from Lab to Con reminds me that in a by-election in this type of constituency, at this stage in the electoral cycle, a swing of 7% the other way - from Con to Lab - would be far more usual, and a swing of 14% would be relatively normal as well. That would have meant a Labour majority in the by-election of 6,200 or 10,300 respectively. If Labour had a proper normal able leader, nobody would have batted an eyelid at Labour winning Copeland by a margin of 7,000 or whatever.
It is, as has often been said, the first government party gain from the opposition in a by-election since 1982, but - depending on where by-elections happen - I have a feeling that there will be more for as long as Corbyn remains leader.
I guess that Jamie Reed made a calculated gamble and a reasonable assumption that Labour would hold the seat despite Corbyn; I wonder how much he is now kicking himself.
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Post by justin124 on Feb 25, 2017 11:59:50 GMT
You are assuming that Reed wished to see Labour retain the seat! Perhaps he saw a Labour defet as a significant step in the process required to depose Corbyn.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 25, 2017 12:04:37 GMT
BUT....................Despite all that, it just wasn't worth that much to me and a very ordinary job locally looked much more attractive than the nobel cause of looking after all of you and battling away for my faction. So, on balance it made more sense for me to sell you and the party down the river and take an ordinary job instead, even though you might miss out and get a Tory in my place. Because, frankly, I was a bit pissed off with the whole thing and went for a quiet life in under two years from being elected! o, I suppose I am really a bit of a shit? But making this statement pretends that I am not. Err! Bye-bye and no hard feelings? Oh! Well sorry about letting you all down. |
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Post by La Fontaine on Feb 25, 2017 12:53:45 GMT
Workington itself is within easy commuting distance of Sellafield and many residents, some of whom I know, work there. The Tories must have a good chance of winning the proposed Workington & Whitehaven seat, which will likely be a contest between the current MPs for Allerdale and Copeland. Meanwhile Barrow could be lost and Carlisle will be out of reach. What a bleak prospect. No chance of a Tory winning Workington and Whitehaven. Labour will have won Whitehaven yesterday and all the Tory bits of Allerdale would be in the Penrith seat. Should the boundary changes go through and Trudy Harrison wants to stay in parliament she will have to follow Bootle into the Barrow constituency. Well maybe I'm being too alarmist. But in the general election the Corbyn factor will loom much larger. And the hospital factor may have subsided by then. |
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