Copeland

[andrew111]

Jan 3, 2017 11:12:11 GMT The Bishop said:

Well it seems to me that this seemingly widespread giddiness about Tory prospects is based on very little so far.

Labour could - *could* - lose this seat, but that is far more applicable than the Tories winning it.

Nobody should kid themselves, whatever polls claim, that there is massive enthusiasm for the present government out there.

I agree that the Tory vote share is not as solid as it has seemed lately: in fact I predict that by the end of 2017 it could be below 35℅, although I think that would fragment in various directions. I think the NHS is the big problem on the horizon for the Tories, and if that turns into a big issue in Copeland it could save Labour. Local knowledge on that would be interesting!

But the current polling position is not good for Labour and I think the Lib Dem vote will rise by a few ℅ in this by-election and that will be mainly at the expense of Labour (that would be the moment when standing down in RP would seem like a good idea, but of course the Lib Dems will just get blamed!)

I think the Fabian report hits the nail on the head by showing how difficult Brexit is for Labour. In the short term taking a strongly Remain position would probably have improved the Labour poll rating, and might have put them in a position to stop the Tories getting a majority, especially with a more pro-EU leader.. but in the long term to climb the much higher mountain of a majority government Labour need to get back the 5% or so of voters they lost to UKIP, as well as regaining the Blairite vote from the Tories and keeping it out of the hands of the Lib Dems.. the long term game is to hope Brexit disappears as an issue, but this is risky if a Lib Dem revival gives a permanent home to Labour voters who place Europe high on their list of priorities. Experience suggests that if the Lib Dems were to get above 15%, those votes may be very hard to prize away again, provided the Lib Dems are not foolish enough to go into coalition again!

[justin124]

I do not share the clearly widely held assumption that views on Brexit will significantly influence party alleigance at the next General Election. It has never been a very salient issue for most people – and for the vast majority it remains far too technical.Those of us who discuss these issues on here are political anoraks and highly unlikely to be representative of the electorate at large. The idea that huge numbers of Leave Labour voters are going to suddenly switch to UKIP or the Tories I find fanciful – as is the idea that many Remain Labour people will now vote LibDem. The same applies to Remain Tory voters – the vast majority of whom will not even consider voting LibDem. By and large people will continue to vote Labour or Tory – regardless of their Brexit opinions. Relatively few voters would view it as the overriding issue , and if May succeeded in calling an election she might well discover – as did Ted Heath in February 1974 – that the voters wish to talk about other issues .

[marksenior]

Jan 3, 2017 13:45:16 GMT andrew111 said:

Jan 3, 2017 11:12:11 GMT The Bishop said:

Well it seems to me that this seemingly widespread giddiness about Tory prospects is based on very little so far.

Labour could - *could* - lose this seat, but that is far more applicable than the Tories winning it.

Nobody should kid themselves, whatever polls claim, that there is massive enthusiasm for the present government out there.

I agree that the Tory vote share is not as solid as it has seemed lately: in fact I predict that by the end of 2017 it could be below 35℅, although I think that would fragment in various directions. I think the NHS is the big problem on the horizon for the Tories, and if that turns into a big issue in Copeland it could save Labour. Local knowledge on that would be interesting!

But the current polling position is not good for Labour and I think the Lib Dem vote will rise by a few ℅ in this by-election and that will be mainly at the expense of Labour (that would be the moment when standing down in RP would seem like a good idea, but of course the Lib Dems will just get blamed!)

All the evidence from council by elections over the past few months is that it is the Conservatives who are losing support and Labour are bumping along at the bottom around the level they achieved 2013 to 2015 . This does not show them to be in terminal decline but does show that they have little chance of winning the next GE .
Any Lib Dem increase in this by election will however be more at the expense of the Conservatives because the Lib Dem efforts will be concentrated in the Allerdale wards where Labour has little support anyway . These are the points that have led me to plump for a Labour win with an increased majority .

[justin124]

Jan 3, 2017 14:02:49 GMT marksenior said:

Jan 3, 2017 13:45:16 GMT andrew111 said:

I agree that the Tory vote share is not as solid as it has seemed lately: in fact I predict that by the end of 2017 it could be below 35℅, although I think that would fragment in various directions. I think the NHS is the big problem on the horizon for the Tories, and if that turns into a big issue in Copeland it could save Labour. Local knowledge on that would be interesting!

But the current polling position is not good for Labour and I think the Lib Dem vote will rise by a few ℅ in this by-election and that will be mainly at the expense of Labour (that would be the moment when standing down in RP would seem like a good idea, but of course the Lib Dems will just get blamed!)

All the evidence from council by elections over the past few months is that it is the Conservatives who are losing support and Labour are bumping along at the bottom around the level they achieved 2013 to 2015 . This does not show them to be in terminal decline but does show that they have little chance of winning the next GE .
Any Lib Dem increase in this by election will however be more at the expense of the Conservatives because the Lib Dem efforts will be concentrated in the Allerdale wards where Labour has little support anyway . These are the points that have led me to plump for a Labour win with an increased majority .

I tend to agree with that.

[lancastrian]

Possible candidates mentioned in the local paper - www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/First-candidate-steps-up-to-replace-Cumbrian-MP-Jamie-Reed-09f02a10-a3b4-47a8-9f28-087422b830aa-ds

Labour:
Usman Ahmed, Parish councillor in Shropshire, previously shortlisted for Arundel & South Downs
Tom Docherty, MP for Dunfermline & West Fife 2010-15
Andrew Lawson, Workington town councillor

Conservative:

Chris Whiteside, Copeland candidate 2010
Stephen Haraldsen, Copeland candidate 2015

UKIP: Michael Pye, Copeland candidate 2015.

I assume Labour will be able to find someone local before the election?

[greatkingrat]

Actually Docherty is local. He was born in Whitehaven and previously worked at BNFL as a Press Officer.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jan 3, 2017 18:48:19 GMT greatkingrat said:

Actually Docherty is local. He was born in Whitehaven and previously worked at BNFL as a Press Officer.

I think he's been a nuclear lobbyist since losing his seat, as well.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Jan 3, 2017 13:45:16 GMT andrew111 said:

But the current polling position is not good for Labour and I think the Lib Dem vote will rise by a few ℅ in this by-election and that will be mainly at the expense of Labour (that would be the moment when standing down in RP would seem like a good idea, but of course the Lib Dems will just get blamed!)

This would be true if the Lib Dems could be trusted to reciprocate a favour. Ask yourself, is Tim Farron the sort of man you'd stand a tenner to?

Incidentally, I'm not sure why there's the assumption from a number of posters that the Lib Dems will concentrate on Allerdale. They may have had a councillor in Keswick in the past, but they came last in the town in the 2015 locals and they only stood in one other Allerdale ward in the constituency.

For that matter, Labour got a councillor elected in Keswick (even if they may have benefited from Conservative undernomination and the independents confuse the picture), so if we're hoping to hold on then I'd imagine we'll be putting in a decent effort in that bit of the seat - evidently there aren't enough votes in Whitehaven, Egremont and Cleator Moor to carry us to victory, so I imagine we'll need to at least trim Tory margins in Keswick and Millom to make up for the inevitable shellacking we'll get in the rural areas.

[iain]

I am pretty certain that we will be focusing on Keswick with a view to trying to win a county council seat there. Certainly all the chatter I've seen from Lib Dems has suggested that, plus possibly working hard in another rural county seat.

[marksenior]

Jan 3, 2017 19:58:11 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Jan 3, 2017 13:45:16 GMT andrew111 said:

But the current polling position is not good for Labour and I think the Lib Dem vote will rise by a few ℅ in this by-election and that will be mainly at the expense of Labour (that would be the moment when standing down in RP would seem like a good idea, but of course the Lib Dems will just get blamed!)

This would be true if the Lib Dems could be trusted to reciprocate a favour. Ask yourself, is Tim Farron the sort of man you'd stand a tenner to?

Incidentally, I'm not sure why there's the assumption from a number of posters that the Lib Dems will concentrate on Allerdale. They may have had a councillor in Keswick in the past, but they came last in the town in the 2015 locals and they only stood in one other Allerdale ward in the constituency.

For that matter, Labour got a councillor elected in Keswick (even if they may have benefited from Conservative undernomination and the independents confuse the picture), so if we're hoping to hold on then I'd imagine we'll be putting in a decent effort in that bit of the seat - evidently there aren't enough votes in Whitehaven, Egremont and Cleator Moor to carry us to victory, so I imagine we'll need to at least trim Tory margins in Keswick and Millom to make up for the inevitable shellacking we'll get in the rural areas.

Given the number of times Labour have sh*t on the Liberals/Lib Dems in the past let alone the people of this country the first paragraph is a bit rich .
Yes Labour have managed to get a councillor elected in Keswick but only as part of the tri party agreement formed in 1999 where Con/Lab/LD fielded only 1 candidate each In CC elections which are true all party contests they come a poor 3rd .
The Lib Dems may have come last in 2015 but the vote was split with that Of the elected Independent councillor Martin Pugmire who was originally elected as a Lib Dem in the 2011 by election .

[Adam in Stroud]

Jan 3, 2017 22:15:58 GMT marksenior said:

Jan 3, 2017 19:58:11 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

This would be true if the Lib Dems could be trusted to reciprocate a favour. Ask yourself, is Tim Farron the sort of man you'd stand a tenner to?

Given the number of times Labour have sh*t on the Liberals/Lib Dems in the past let alone the people of this country the first paragraph is a bit rich .

Not really the point, though, is it Mark?

I can think of very few situations in which I'd be willing to stand aside for Labour - I suppose Batley & Spen was the exception - so I really don't see why they should for us. Some Labour supporters, especially those already unhappy with the leader, may feel that Labour ought to stand aside for us on occasion, but unfortunately for Labour I don't think it would look good for us implicitly to endorse Corbyn.  (The Greens might be a different matter but outside of Brighton I'm not sure that the issue arises in Parliamentary seats.) We are also in the game right now of grabbing every bit of publicity that we can - 10% in Copeland wouldn't be a bad result for us at all in that context, much as in Sleaford & N Hykeham. So while I don't see why EAL seems to consider Farron to be personally untrustworthy, I think he's quite right that we can't really reciprocate.

The interesting thing for Labour is that since they are supposed to be a party of government and look nowhere near to it right now, there is  a pressure on them to work with us to get the Tories out that doesn't really apply in reverse.

[andrew111]

Jan 3, 2017 19:58:11 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Jan 3, 2017 13:45:16 GMT andrew111 said:

But the current polling position is not good for Labour and I think the Lib Dem vote will rise by a few ℅ in this by-election and that will be mainly at the expense of Labour (that would be the moment when standing down in RP would seem like a good idea, but of course the Lib Dems will just get blamed!)

This would be true if the Lib Dems could be trusted to reciprocate a favour. Ask yourself, is Tim Farron the sort of man you'd stand a tenner to?

Incidentally, I'm not sure why there's the assumption from a number of posters that the Lib Dems will concentrate on Allerdale. They may have had a councillor in Keswick in the past, but they came last in the town in the 2015 locals and they only stood in one other Allerdale ward in the constituency.

For that matter, Labour got a councillor elected in Keswick (even if they may have benefited from Conservative undernomination and the independents confuse the picture), so if we're hoping to hold on then I'd imagine we'll be putting in a decent effort in that bit of the seat - evidently there aren't enough votes in Whitehaven, Egremont and Cleator Moor to carry us to victory, so I imagine we'll need to at least trim Tory margins in Keswick and Millom to make up for the inevitable shellacking we'll get in the rural areas.

Well, standing a tenner is not all that ambitious, but I would feel my tenner was much safer with Farron than most politicians.. for example he kept his word on tuition fees. However as far as I aware Farron never once suggested that Labour should stand down in RP- that was Labour MP'S and media types as I recall..

Meanwhile the well researched Fabian report shows that it is in fact Labour Remainers switching to Lib Dem at the moment while the Lib Dems have lost some voters to the Tories.. the lib Dems will do better in Keswick than elsewhere but it will still be mainly middle class Labour voters that switchin my view.

[Deleted]

Whitehaven/Copeland (two ways)

[casualobserver]

Jan 3, 2017 8:31:44 GMT carlton43 said:

Might I enquire how old you are CO and how long you have been an active member? I am pleased to read of your reactions and to learn of the flow back. I would contend that the numbers who have drifted back without saying so to anyone and without formally re-joining the party may be much larger than 5-figures?

Thanks, Carlton. My apologies, I should have made it clearer that I was referring specifically to Party Membership not Party support and I was particularly referring to the numbers who (re)joined on-line through the national Party website. At least in those constituencies where I have asked about it, there were literally scores of new members in each constituency within just a week or two of David Cameron's resignation, starting sharply on the day of the resignation itself, whereas normally there'd be a trickle of new memberships who are centrally signed-up amounting to just one or two per constituency per month. Most Conservative Party membership continues to be locally signed up in the constituencies themselves, and we've also seen a noticeable return of lapsed members from that source since David Cameron's resignation, with these returning members often explicity citing antipathy towards David Cameron as their reason for having resigned or for having allowed their membership to lapse.

This really sharp increase in new membership, especially on-line through the Party's national website but also within local associations, was not anticipated centrally nor was it by any of those activists with whom I've spoken. I've yet to find any Constituency Association, however, which has managed effectively to bring a significant number of the new centrally signed-up members into active participation within the Party locally.

[carlton43]

Thanks for that report CO. I am delighted to learn that it was that direct, that obvious and that quick. I am entirely unsurprised as so many of us were utterly convinced that he was barely a conservative at all and also a very poor decision taker and a hopeless strategic thinker and planner.

[casualobserver]

Jan 3, 2017 11:12:11 GMT The Bishop said:

Well it seems to me that this seemingly widespread giddiness about Tory prospects is based on very little so far.

Labour could - *could* - lose this seat, but that is far more applicable than the Tories winning it.

Nobody should kid themselves, whatever polls claim, that there is massive enthusiasm for the present government out there.

While having another Conservative MP (even a remainer such as Chris Whiteside) would of course be welcomed by all Conservatives, I can't help but be concerned that, in the event of Labour losing this by-election, the position of the Conservative Party's greatest asset (Mr J Corbyn) may be seriously weakened. Rarely have I felt more conflicted about the result of an impending by-election!

[The Bishop]

I do wonder if the narrative in the event of a Labour hold is going to be "we (Tories) never really wanted to win this seat anyway"

[Sibboleth]

There's a rising third party at the moment? Where?

[Adam in Stroud]

Jan 4, 2017 11:09:39 GMT casualobserver said:

Jan 3, 2017 8:31:44 GMT carlton43 said:

Might I enquire how old you are CO and how long you have been an active member? I am pleased to read of your reactions and to learn of the flow back. I would contend that the numbers who have drifted back without saying so to anyone and without formally re-joining the party may be much larger than 5-figures?

Thanks, Carlton. My apologies, I should have made it clearer that I was referring specifically to Party Membership not Party support and I was particularly referring to the numbers who (re)joined on-line through the national Party website. At least in those constituencies where I have asked about it, there were literally scores of new members in each constituency within just a week or two of David Cameron's resignation, starting sharply on the day of the resignation itself, whereas normally there'd be a trickle of new memberships who are centrally signed-up amounting to just one or two per constituency per month. Most Conservative Party membership continues to be locally signed up in the constituencies themselves, and we've also seen a noticeable return of lapsed members from that source since David Cameron's resignation, with these returning members often explicity citing antipathy towards David Cameron as their reason for having resigned or for having allowed their membership to lapse.

This really sharp increase in new membership, especially on-line through the Party's national website but also within local associations, was not anticipated centrally nor was it by any of those activists with whom I've spoken. I've yet to find any Constituency Association, however, which has managed effectively to bring a significant number of the new centrally signed-up members into active participation within the Party locally.

Very interesting post CO, and potentially quite a significant development.  I'll be interested to see if it leads to an invigorated activist base e.g.  at the County Council elections, and whether it feeds through to a change in policy.  

[right]

Jan 4, 2017 11:09:39 GMT casualobserver said:

Jan 3, 2017 8:31:44 GMT carlton43 said:

Might I enquire how old you are CO and how long you have been an active member? I am pleased to read of your reactions and to learn of the flow back. I would contend that the numbers who have drifted back without saying so to anyone and without formally re-joining the party may be much larger than 5-figures?

Thanks, Carlton. My apologies, I should have made it clearer that I was referring specifically to Party Membership not Party support and I was particularly referring to the numbers who (re)joined on-line through the national Party website. At least in those constituencies where I have asked about it, there were literally scores of new members in each constituency within just a week or two of David Cameron's resignation, starting sharply on the day of the resignation itself, whereas normally there'd be a trickle of new memberships who are centrally signed-up amounting to just one or two per constituency per month. Most Conservative Party membership continues to be locally signed up in the constituencies themselves, and we've also seen a noticeable return of lapsed members from that source since David Cameron's resignation, with these returning members often explicity citing antipathy towards David Cameron as their reason for having resigned or for having allowed their membership to lapse.

This really sharp increase in new membership, especially on-line through the Party's national website but also within local associations, was not anticipated centrally nor was it by any of those activists with whom I've spoken. I've yet to find any Constituency Association, however, which has managed effectively to bring a significant number of the new centrally signed-up members into active participation within the Party locally.

That would include me, in real life at least.  Just sent off the application today.  I can't work out how to actually align with the Conservatives on this forum.