Romanian general election 2016

[Deleted]

"The main actors

According to political analyst Radu Magdin, President Klaus Iohannis is losing popularity. He is seen as inactive by both friends and foes (opponents heavily attack him in terms of “holidays”, friends from the National Liberal Party (PNL) do not get why he is not playing more on their side); additionally, he does not use his institutional leverage the way former President Traian Basescu did.

The premier, ex-EU Commissioner Dacian Cioloș, heading up a technocratic cabinet since December 2015, is still viewed as a reasonable leader, while he hesitates to embrace a political party, most likely the PNL. Cioloș is widely courted by PNL leaders, particularly Alina Gorghiu, who is viewed as a credible mouthpiece for Iohannis. While the government has scored some victories, particularly on cutting red tape and fighting Romania’s bureaucracy, it is viewed by Romanians as lacking political courage, the analyst said.

Magdin added that the Partidul Social Democrat has positioned itself as the main opposition party and has, repeatedly, tried to brand the Cioloș cabinet as the “zero government”, particularly after controversies concerning EU funds absorption. The PSD’s leader, Liviu Dragnea, stands uncontested in the PNL.

The National Liberal Party, Romania’s main right-wing party, is facing critical issues, such as its leadership (co-Presidents Alina Gorghiu and Vasile Blaga are not seen as electoral movers and shakers); internal cohesion; lacking a clear political strategy and messaging, which resulted in landing only third in June’s local elections in the capital ( the PSD won the Mayor of Bucharest and the mayors of the various sectors of the capital.)

According to Magdin, one issue to take into consideration is a growing trend of economic and political nationalism. Initially promoted by politicians under judicial scrutiny, and some of the most popular TV stations (like Romania TV and Antena 3), such nationalism has become mainstream. The basic narrative is that 26 years after the 1989 revolution, “nothing is ours anymore”, “our economy is in shambles”. This, as the analyst adds, is contradicted by facts, but the narrative works anyway.

Scenarios of coalition building

The most realistic outcome of the election scenario could be a majority around PSD, Magdin said. The premier could turn out to be current Vice Prime Minister Vasile Dancu, or the Romanian Ambassador to the US, George Maior. A second possubility could be a majority around PNL. A third scenario could be a grand coalition between the PSD and PNL, with Vasile Dancu or Dacian Cioloș as prime minister.

Historically, it has been really hard to manage grand coalitions in Romania. Previous experiments, in 2009 (PSD-PDL) and 2013 (USL, i.e. PSD-PNL) resulted in complete failure after just a year or two, Magdin concluded."

www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/romania-to-hold-parliamentary-election-on-11-december/

[Georg Ebner]

Does anyone know, why UDMR is running, despite the (15?) seats reserved for minorities?

[Deleted]

Dec 7, 2016 2:55:32 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Does anyone know, why UDMR is running, despite the (15?) seats reserved for minorities?

Because reserved seats are not relevant for Hungarians. Its much too big a group.

A national minority is entitled to one seat in the Chamber of Deputies if the following conditions are met:
- The minority has not won any seats in either chamber of Parliament.
- The citizens' organization representing that minority has a seat on the Council of National Minorities.
- The citizens' organization as a whole has obtained at least 5% of the average number of valid votes cast for an elected deputy.

There is no upper limit on the number of seats reserved for minority organizations, but since there are 19 legally established national minorities, and the Czechs and Slovaks are represented by one person in the Council of National Minorities, there is an effective maximum of 18 national minorities represented under the reserved seats rule (and Hungarians and Germans are too big to use the quota, so in reality 16).

[Deleted]

A couple of tidbits: 

"The Save Romania Union was only formed last year and saw its leader Nicușor Dan finish second in Bucharest mayoral elections in June. A mathematics professor, Dan originally entered politics to prevent the destruction of historical buildings in the capital city. But the focus has since been on ridding Romania of what he sees as endemic corruption in the country’s political class. The party could yet gain major influence if it is able to form a union with the National Liberal party."

From mid-November: "The chairwoman of the Central Election Commission of Romania Ana Maria Petru has been arrested on the eve of parliamentary elections in the country. Petru has been indicted on charges of corruption. In the period 2008-2009, she paid EUR 210,000 to a company headed by her husband. The Agency for Combating Corruption accused Petru of receiving a EUR 50,000 bribe from a businessman in return for him getting a contract with the Ministry of Economy. The Central Election Commission will be headed temporarily by one of Petru’s deputies."

The odds that the new chair is every bit as corrupt are fairly short.

[Deleted]

Regularly updated map of turnout: radar.ithub.gov.ro/

[Deleted]

Leaked exit polls (which may be unreliable):

PSD 45%
PNL 21%
USR 14%
ALDE 5%
UDMR 5% *
PMP 4%
PRU 3%

* over the threshold anyway due to getting 20+% in four constituencies.

[Deleted]

The actual exit polls:

Ires (PSD "house pollster")

PSD 45.8%

PNL 20.8%

USR 9.3%

ALDE 6.9%

PMP 4.7%

UDMR 6.7%


Sociopol (PNL "house pollster")

PSD 42.3%

PNL 19.2%

USR 10.1%

ALDE 6.0%

UDMR 5.4%

PMP  5,2%

PRU 4.5%

[Deleted]

Results from ProTV 

Chamber, based on 62.2% of the vote:

PSD: 46,3%
PNL: 20,3%
USR: 7,3%
UDMR: 7,2%
ALDE: 5,4%
PMP: 4,9%

Senate, based on 66,8% of the vote:

PSD: 46.5
PNL: 20.6%
USR: 7.5%
UDMR: 7.1%
ALDE: 5.9%
PMP: 5.2%

[Deleted]

Chamber, with 72,3% of precincts reporting:

PSD: 46,2%
PNL: 20,3%
USR: 7,5%
UDMR: 7%
ALDE: 5,5%
PMP: 4,9%

Senate with 72,3% of precincts reporting:

PSD: 46,4
PNL: 20,7%
USR: 7,7%
UDMR: 6,9%
ALDE: 5,9%
PMP: 5,2%

[Deleted]

Chamber, based on 90.7% of precincts:

PSD: 45.9%
PNL: 20%
USR: 8.3%
UDMR: 6.4%
ALDE: 5.6%
PMP: 5.1%


Senate, based on 90.8% of precincts:

PSD: 46.1%
PNL: 20.4%
USR: 8.4%
UDMR: 6.4%
ALDE: 6.0%
PMP: 5.3%

[Deleted]

Dec 11, 2016 13:18:43 GMT @odo said:

"The Save Romania Union was only formed last year and saw its leader civic activist Nicușor Dan finish second in Bucharest mayoral elections in June. A mathematics professor, Dan originally entered politics to prevent the destruction of historical buildings in the capital city. But the focus has since been on ridding Romania of what he sees as endemic corruption in the country’s political class. The party could yet gain major influence if it is able to form a union with the National Liberal party."

Save Romania Union (USR) got 9% and became the third largest party in the new parliament - and bigger than PNL in Bucharest.

PNL leader Alina Gorghiu has resigned.

[Deleted]

The new parliament will sworn in on December 19. The majority (PSD + ALDE) will then hold consultations with president Klaus Iohannis and he will announce the new PM on December 22 at the latest. The new government will be sworn in after December 30 (and most likely after New Year).

President Ionnahis has vowed not to accept any candidate who has been sentenced (or even investigated) for graft. PSD boss Dragnea has a two-year suspended jail sentence for trying to rig a referendum on suspending former president Traian Basescu back in 2012.  In addition to the presidents dislike the law also forbids any convicted politician from holding government office.

ALDE has announced that if (which means "when") they form an alliance with PSD they will support any candidate for PM presented by the Social Democrats, and ALDE’ leader Calin Popescu Tariceanum has specifically said he is also willing to stand by Dragnea.

If Iohannis refuse to nominate Dragnea as PM Romania this will cause a stand-off between the president and the parliament. The president has the right to refuse the parliamentary majority’s nomination and come up with his own candidate. If parliament then rejects the president’s proposed candidate the process will restart with new consultations. The president may dissolve parliament if no vote of confidence has been obtained to form a government within 60 days after the first request was made, and only after rejection of at least two requests for investiture.

[Deleted]

The PSD voter profile has changed according to this election analysis by IRES (in my google translate based version). Their exit poll has a sample of 18,284 voters, from 300 polling stations. In the recent local elections the PSD still did bad with young and urban voters, so this might be a breakthrough. 

republica.ro/profilul-alegatorului-psd-s-a-schimbat-la-aceste-alegeri-analiza-ires

"The Social Democratic Party managed to mobilize urban voters and those with higher education, this is apparent from an IRES study done for Digi24 of the parliamentary elections on 11th December.

Profile of voters who participated in the poll shows that PSD was chosen in greater numbers than PNL by voters with higher education.

This contradicts almost every stereotype about PSD voters, explained sociologist Dan Jurcan from IRES. If until now PSD have obtained votes mainly from rural areas and those that have, at most, secondary education, half the urban voters in Sunday's election chose the Social Democrats list.

"Certain trends are maintained, but this time we see that the PSD voters are also present in urban areas. (...) 23.24% of PSD voters are university graduates and PSD voters (now) also include the youth" said sociologist Dan Jurcan to Digi24."

By age:

25-34

PSD - 28.5%

PNL - 28.9%

ALDE - 6%

USR - 17.9%

PMP - 5.2%

UDMR - 6.5%


55-64

PSD - 54%

PNL - 17.3%

ALDE - 6.3%

USR - 5.3%

PMP - 4.4%

UDMR - 6.4%


Employed

PSD - 35.8%

PNL - 25.1%

ALDE - 6.3%

USR - 14%

PMP - 4.8

UDMR - 6.5%


Unemployed

PSD - 46.9%

PNL - 24.7%

ALDE - 6.9%

USR - 7.6%

PMP - 4.7%

UDMR - 4.7%


Higher education

PSD - 26.8%

PNL - 24.4%

ALDE - 8%

USR - 22.3%

PMP - 5.2%

UDMR - 4.1%

[Deleted]

The new PSD Premier is economist and Tatar Muslim Sevil Shhaideh (52). First female Muslim head of government in the EU. She is a former director of the Constanta county council 1993-2012, and in the leadership of the National Union of County Councils 2007-12. In 2012 she became State Secretary for Regional Development under Liviu Dragnea, when Dragnea was subsequently convicted for electoral fraud during the 2012 presidential impeachment referendum in spring 2015, she took over as Minister of Regional Development, but as the whole Ponta cabinet fell in late 2015 her time as minister was quite short.  President Klaus Iohannis is set to formally nominate the new PM on Thursday, after his consultations with all parties end. Dragnea says he hasn't given up his dream of becoming PM one day, and has hinted that the law which prevents him from becoming PM might be amended in the near future.

Shhaideh is essentially a puppet of Dragnea (the Kaczynski model), and the Ponta faction feels snubbed. 

Bonus info: She is married to a Syrian engineer, who worked for the Constanza county government and Dragena was 'best man' at their marriage.

www.romaniajournal.ro/psd-proposes-woman-prime-minister


not a woman who smiles a lot on pictures..

[Deleted]

Romania's President Klaus Iohannis has rejected the Social Democrat's proposal to name Sevil Shhaideh as PM.

No explanation, just “I have carefully weighed the pros and cons and I have decided not to appoint Sevil Shhaideh". But her husband’s support for Assad may have played a part, and perhaps it was also too obvious she would become Dragnea’s puppet.

Dragnea says he contemplates impeaching the president, so a full blown constitutional crisis may be in the cards.

www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/romanian-president-rejects-muslim-woman-as-pm-12-27-2016

www.romaniajournal.ro/psd-alde-contemplate-suspending-the-president-following-refusal-to-nominate-sevil-shhaideh-as-pm/

[Deleted]

PSD has nominated  Sorin Grindeanu (43) as new PM. He is a former Deputy Mayor of Timisoara and Minister of Telecommunications in Ponta's government, and currently president of Timisiora County Council. Seemingly as inoffensive as they come, so it seems Dragnea has backed down and accepted he won't be able to rule by proxy.
 
www.romaniajournal.ro/psd-chairman-submits-second-pm-nomination-sorin-grindeanu/