Prediction Competition - December 2016

[carlton43]

Dec 8, 2016 16:33:34 GMT middleenglander said:

9 entries this week with Carlton43 reappearing after missing Monday be no script entered from either finsobruce or again philipchandler.
Mark Senior had no prediction for the Green candidate in Maldon with hempie & Robert Waller appearing to copy his format by also having no prediction.

Lancaster, University & Scotforth Rural: 8 Labour hold majority from 4% (Mark Senior over Green) to 14% (Robert Waller over both Conservative & Green) with Greenhert Green gain
Maldon, Maldon West: 5 Conservative hold majority over Independent ranging from 9% (Carlton43 & Hempie) to 12% (Lancastrian) with Greenhert, Maxque, Pete Whitehead & Robert Waller Independent gain
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Madeley: 4 Labour hold, Lancastrian, Maxque, Pete Whitehead & Robert Waller Independent gain, Carlton43 Conservative again
Telford & Wrekin, Horesehay & Lightmoor: 100% Conservative hold with majority over Labour ranging from 10% (Greenhert) to 25% (Carlton43)
Tonbridge & Malling: Trench: 100% Conservative hold with majority over Labour ranging from 9% (Greenhert) to 30% (Carlton43)

These Monday polls are a bugger. I just missed it entirely. Having done so the penalty makes it a bit pointless to continue in the competition.

[middleenglander]

Week 2:

Authority	Angus	Lancaster	Maldon	Newcastle-    under-Lyme	Telford & Wrekin	Tonbridge      & Malling	Week 2	Week 2	Month to   date	Month to   Date
Ward	Carnoustie     & District	University &  Scotforth Rural	Maldon West	Madley	Horsehay &     Lightmore	Trench	faults	position	faults	position
Carlton43	100	19.9	44.2+10	75.6+10	34.5+10	12.4	316.6	9th	466.0	9th
David Boothroyd	47.1+5+10	8.4	48.2+10	80.8+10	32.5+10	20.4	282.4	8th	404.0	8th
finsobruce	15.1	100	100	100	100	100	515.1	10th	641.5	10th
Greenhert	23.1+10	17.4	26.2	109.6+10	26.5+10	38.6	271.3	7th	395.8	7th
hempie	27.1+10	6.6	42.2+10	72.8+10	32.5+10	16.6	237.8	6th	366.0	6th
Lancastrian	47.1+10	24.4	40.2+10	32.8	32.5+10	22.6	229.5	4th	322.3	3rd
Mark Senior	30.4+10	7.6	41.0+10	75.6+10	20.5+10	20.6	235.7	5th	358.3	5th
Maxque	16.9	13.8	23.9	44.8	28.5+10	16.4	154.3	1st	286.2	1st
Pete Whitehead	34.9+10	5.9	23.3	56.0	23.3+10	23.4	186.8	2nd	301.8	2nd
philipchandler	100	100	100	100	100	100	600.0		733.9	11th
Robert Waller	35.1+10	9.9	40.2	66.8	24.5+10	28.6	225.0	3rd	327.0	4th

Some time ago we did cap maximum faults at 100.  But then we had a week like this with a very high scoring by-election where capping someone would be unfair to the other entrants who would see their differential reduced.  This is even though another competitor who had failed to give a prediction benefited relatively.  One way of handling the situation (remember him) would be to give, in this case, finsobruce the highest number of faults or possibly with say a 10 fault surcharge.  However this currently would be highly likely to be somewhat academic so I have faulted as in the above table.

Objections please by 10.00 am Sunday.

There are 7 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[lancastrian]

Blackburn: Lab 62 UKIP 25 Con 13
Fife: SNP 46 Lab 25 Con 13 LD 12 Green 4
Powys: Ind 45 LD 35 Con 20
St Edmundsbury: Ind 43 Con 30 Lab 15 LD 6 UKIP 6
Taunton: LD 44 Con 41 Ind 15
Teignbridge Bovey: LD 34 Con 30 Ind(Kelly) 18 Lab 8 Ind(West) 5 UKIP 5
Teignbridge Chudleigh: LD 50 Con 32 Lab 10 UKIP 8

[marksenior]

Blackburn Lab 64 Con 20 UKIP 16
Fife SNP 44 Lab 24 Con 16 LD 11 Green 5
Powys LD 46 Ind 39 Con 15
St Edmundsbury Ind 38 Con 33 Lab 14 LD 8 UKIP 7
Taunton LD 48 Con 44 No Desc 8
Teignbridge Bovey LD 37 Con 30 Lab 10 Ind K 8 Ind West 8 UKIP 7
Teignbridge Chudleigh Con 42 LD 28 Lab 18 UKIP 12

[greenhert]

Blackburn with Darwen UA, Higher Croft: Labour 65, Conservative 20, UKIP 15.
Fife UA, Leven, Kennoway & Largo: SNP 43, Labour 25, Conservative 15, Liberal Democrats 14, Green 5.
Powys UA, Welshpool Llanerchyddol: Lib Dem 45, Independent 42, Con 13.
St Edmunsbury BC, Moreton Hall: Independent (Beckwith) 39, Con 37, Lib Dem 10, Lab 8, UKIP 6.
Taunton Deane BC, Blackdown: Lib Dem 49, Con 45, No Description 6.
Teignbridge DC, Bovey: Lib Dem 35, Con 31, Ind K 10, Ind W 9, Lab 8, UKIP 7.
Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh: Con 40, Lib Dem 32, Lab 17, UKIP 11.

[Robert Waller]

Blackburn: Lab 65 UKIP 22 Con 13
Fife: SNP 41 Lab 34 Con 12 LD 10 Green 3
Powys: Ind 40 LD 43 Con 17
St Edmundsbury: Ind 35 Con 33 Lab 12 LD 10 UKIP 10
Taunton: LD 50 Con 40 Ind 10
Teignbridge Bovey: LD 29 Con 27 Ind(Kelly) 15 Lab 6 Ind(West) 15 UKIP 8
Teignbridge Chudleigh: LD 33 Con 48 Lab 9 UKIP 10

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BLACKBURN WITH DARWEN Higher Croft: Lab 40, UKIP 35, C 25
FIFE Leven, Kennoway and Largo: SNP 50, Lab 24, C 13, L Dem 10, SGP 3
POWYS Welshpool Llanerchyddol: Ind 53, L Dem 28, C 19
ST EDMUNDSBURY Moreton Hall: C 36, Ind 34, L Dem 12, Lab 10, UKIP 8
TAUNTON DEANE Blackdown: C 47, L Dem 35, Ind 18
TEIGNBRIDGE Bovey: L Dem 36, C 30, Ind Kelly 16, Lab 7, UKIP 6, Ind West 5
TEIGNBRIDGE Chudleigh: L Dem 44, C 32, UKIP 14, Lab 10

[maxque]

Blackburn with Darwen UA, Higher Croft: Lab 56, UKIP 23, Conservative 21
Fife UA, Leven, Kennoway & Largo: SNP 52, Lab 27, Con 9, LD 8, Grn 4.
Powys UA, Welshpool Llanerchyddol: Ind 55, LD 25, Con 20.
St Edmunsbury BC, Moreton Hall: Ind 38, Con 35, LD 11, Lab 8, UKIP 8.
Taunton Deane BC, Blackdown: Con 40.9, Ind 30.8, LD 28.3
Teignbridge DC, Bovey: LD 31, Con 30, Ind K 18, Lab 11, Ind W 8, UKIP 2.
Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh: LD 40, Con 33, Lab 18, UKIP 9.

[hempie]

Blackburn with Darwen, Higher Croft: Lab 60, UKIP 21, Conservative 19
Fife, Leven, Kennoway & Largo: SNP 47, Lab 24, Con 12, LD 10, Green 7
Powys, Welshpool Llanerchyddol: Ind 50, LD 27, Con 23
St Edmunsbury, Moreton Hall: Ind 36, Con 33, LD 13, UKIP 10, Lab 8
Taunton Deane, Blackdown: LD 37, Con 33, Ind 30
Teignbridge, Bovey: LD 33, Con 30, Ind K 16, Lab 9, Ind W 8, UKIP 4
Teignbridge, Chudleigh: LD 41, Con 32, Lab 15, UKIP 12

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 14, 2016 22:48:51 GMT petewhitehead said:

Blackburn with Darwen UA- Higher Croft

Lab    57.1%
UKIP 25.4%
Con  17.5%


St Edmundsbury DC - Moreton Hall

Ind   36.5%
Con  34.9%
Lab  14.7%
UKIP  8.4%
LD     5.5%


Taunton Deane BC - Blackdown

Con 44.2%
LD   40.1%
Ind  15.7%


Teignbridge DC - Bovey Tracey

LD        33.1%
Con     31.6%
Ind W 10.3%
Lab        9.6%
UKIP     8.0%
Ind K    7.4%


Teignbridge DC - Chudleigh

Con   42.6%
LD     34.8%
UKIP 12.2%
Lab   10.4%


Fife UA - Leven, Kennoway & Largo

SNP  42.9%
Lab   28.2%
Con  13.2%
LD    12.4%
Grn    3.3%


Powys CC - Welshpool Llanerchyddol

Ind    43.8%
LD     36.5%
Con  19.7%

[carlton43]

I apologise to other participants for missing the cut again. First time it was because of a damn non-Thursday candidature and that damned my chances and other events just took away the will to remember. I resolve to do better next year. Good luck to the others.

[Robert Waller]

I do hope M.E. is feeling better on Friday.

After the five byelections that have been counted so far, I make it that Pete is in the lead for the month, but that Lancastrian has moved forward into a strong second place and leads for the week. Maxque is third for the month.

[Robert Waller]

After Chudleigh, Lancastrian overtakes Pete for the monthly lead.

[middleenglander]

After a day in bed yesterday, up and about but still a bit groggy - coughing and wheezing with not much energy. Will try to do official results later today.

[Deleted]

Dec 17, 2016 9:48:54 GMT middleenglander said:

After a day in bed yesterday, up and about but still a bit groggy - coughing and wheezing with not much energy. Will try to do official results later today.

Take care, hope you get well soon.

[middleenglander]

Is anyone else having problems with Microsoft edge. Yesterday afternoon I was preparing the results of the prediction competition for week 3 when the system dropped out and everything disappeared into the ether. I did not have the energy to redo the post yesterday.

[maxque]

Dec 18, 2016 9:45:59 GMT middleenglander said:

Is anyone else having problems with Microsoft edge. Yesterday afternoon I was preparing the results of the prediction competition for week 3 when the system dropped out and everything disappeared into the ether. I did not have the energy to redo the post yesterday.

Edge is crap, honestly.

[middleenglander]

Week 3:

	David  Boothroyd	Greenhert	hempie	Lancastrian	Mark       Senior	Maxque	Pete   Whitehead	Robert       Waller
Blackburn with Darwen - Higher Croft	36.5	20.1	8.1	7.5	18.1	8.5	2.3	13.5
Fife - Leven, Kennoway & Largo	28.5	16.5+2	30.5	22.5	20.5	34.5	14.9	21.6
Powys - Welshpool Llanerchyddol	8.3	25.9+10	10.1	7.7	27.9+10	14.1	10.1	21.9+10
St Edmundsbury - Moreton Hall	43.9+10	34.7	39.9	34.7	40.7	35.9	48.7	42.7
Tuanton Deane - Blackdown	72.4+10	45.0	68.4	54.4	46.4	85.8+10	62.2+10	42.4
Teignbridge - Bovey	22.1	22.1	30.3	26.3	21.8	38.3	27.6	42.1
Teignbridge - Chudleigh	22.2	39.0+10	28.2	10.2	47.0+10	28.2	33.4+10	37.0+10
Week 3 - faults	253.8	225.1	215.5	163.4	242.2	255.4	219.1	241.1
Week 3 - position	7th	4th	2nd	1st	6th	8th	3rd	5th
Month to date - faults	657.8	620.9	581.5	485.6	600.5	541.6	520.9	568.1
Month to date - position	8th	7th	5th	1st	6th	3rd	2nd	4th

Greenhert gets 2 additional faults for adding to 102% in Fife.

Other month to date faults: Carlton43 1,166.0, finsobruce 1,341.5 and philipchandler 1,433.9

Objections please by 9.00 am Tuesday.

There are 3 by-elections in the final week of the year, 1 on Wednesday 21st December and 2 on Thursday 22nd December.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on the day of the election.

[finsobruce]

Rather pointlessly given my no show for the last two weeks (apologies - I was in "development hell" with the play I was working on .all worked out ok in the end thank you for asking )

waverley, Cranleigh : Con 50, LD 40, UKIP 10
Dover, Aylesham:Lab 70, Con 30
Eastleigh, Hedge End: LD 55,Con 40, Lab 5

[greenhert]

Waverley DC, Cranleigh: Conservative 48, Liberal Democrats 44, UKIP 8.
Dover BC, Aylesham: Labour 66, Conservative 34.
Eastleigh BC, Hedge End Wildern: Liberal Democrats 54, Conservative 39, Labour 7.