Prediction Competition - December 2016

[maxque]

Carnoustie & District, Angus: Ind 49, SNP 25, Con 20, Lab 5, LD 1

[finsobruce]

Angus, Carnoustie : IND 36, SNP 34, CON 20, LAB 6 LD 4

[hempie]

Carnoustie & District, Angus: SNP 38, Ind 30, Con 20, Lab 9, LD 3

[Davıd Boothroyd]

ANGUS Carnoustie and District: SNP 39, C 28, Ind 20, Lab 9, L Dem 4

Oh dear, lateness points as well.

[middleenglander]

9 entries this week with no submission from Carlton43 and philipchandler. David Boothroyd gets 5 additional points for being a couple of minutes late with his entry.

Angus, Carnoustie & District:
- 7 SNP ahead on first preferences with 5 having Independent second lagging behind from 8% (Greenhert & hempie) up to 23.9% (Pete Whitehead)
- David Boothroyd (11% behind) and Lancastrian (20%) have Conservative second whilst
- finsobruce (2%) and Maxque have Independent ahead of SNP on first preferences.

Pete Whitehead prediction is: SNP 40.0%, Independent 26.1%, Conservative 19.1%, Labour 10.4%, Liberal Democrat 4.4%

[Robert Waller]

Monday result now included.
Think Maxque may be 3rd.

[middleenglander]

Dec 6, 2016 17:51:32 GMT Robert Waller said:

Monday result now included.
Think Maxque may be 3rd.

Correct.

[greenhert]

My predictions for 8/12/16:

Lancaster BC, University & Scotforth Rural: Green 34, Labour 32, Conservative 27, Liberal Democrats 7.
Maldon DC, Maldon West: Independent (Shaughnessy) 36, Con 33, UKIP 14, Lab 10, Green 6, Fighting Unsustainable Housing (BNP) 1.
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Madeley: Lab 38, Con 35, Lib Dem 17, Independent (White) 10.
Telford & Wrekin UA, Horsehay & Lightmoor: Con 51, Lab 41, UKIP 8.
Tonbridge & Malling DC, Trench: Con 49, Lab 40, UKIP 11.

[marksenior]

Lancaster Lab 35 Green 31 Con 25 LD 9
Maldon Con 40 Ind 30 UKIP 16 Lab 10 BNP 4
Newcastle Lab 34 Ind 27 Con 25 LD 14
Telford Con 48 Lab 36 UKIP 16
Tonbridge Con 54 Lab 31 UKIP 15

[Robert Waller]

Lancaster Lab 39 Green 25 Con 25 LD 11
Maldon Con 37 Ind 38 UKIP 10 Lab 13 FU 2
Newcastle Lab 30 Ind 36 Con 28 LD 6
Telford Con 50 Lab 34 UKIP 16
Tonbridge Con 50 Lab 35 UKIP 15

[Davıd Boothroyd]

LANCASTER University and Scotforth Rural: Lab 37, GP 30, C 20, L Dem 13
MALDON Maldon West: C 43, Ind 32, Lab 11, UKIP 8, GP 4, BNP 2
NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME Madeley: Lab 36, C 29, Ind 27, L Dem 8
TELFORD AND WREKIN Horsehay and Lightmoor: C 54, Lab 32, UKIP 14
TONBRIDGE AND MALLING Trench: C 51, Lab 29, UKIP 20

[carlton43]

Lancaster Lab 39 Con 30 Green 21 LD 10
Maldon Con 42  Ind (S) 31  Lab 10 UKIP 9  Green 6 BNP 2
Madeley Con 31 Lab 28 Ind 27 LD 14
Telford Con 55 Lab 30 UKIP 15
Tonbridge Con 55 Lab 25 UKIP 20

[hempie]

Lancaster, University & Scotforth Rural: Lab 37, Green 26, Con 23, LD 14
Maldon, Maldon West: Con 39, Ind 30, UKIP 13, Lab 12, FUH(BNP) 6
Newcastle under Lyme, Madeley: Lab 34, Ind 30, Con 27, LD 9
Telford and Wrekin,Horsehay & Lightmoor: Con 49, Lab 30 UKIP 21
Tonbridge and Malling, Trench: Con 53, Lab 29, UKIP 18

[maxque]

Lancaster, University & Scotforth Rural: Lab 36.4, Grn 33.5, Con 23.7, LD 6.4
Maldon, Maldon West: Ind 41, Con 32, UKIP 11, Lab 7, Grn 5, BNP 4
Newcastle under Lyme, Madeley: Ind 51, Con 29, Lab 18, LD 2
Telford and Wrekin,Horsehay & Lightmoor: Con 46, Lab 32, UKIP 22
Tonbridge and Malling, Trench: Con 53, Lab 25, UKIP 22

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 7, 2016 23:21:50 GMT petewhitehead said:

Telford & Wrekin UA - Horsehay & Lightmoor

Con   49.4%
Lab    35.4%
UKIP  15.2%


Lancaster BC - University & Scotforth Rural

Lab   37.4%
Grn   27.3%
Con  24.6%
LD     10.7%


Maldon DC - Maldon West

Ind     34.3%
Con   31.6%
Grn   11.0%
UKIP 10.2%
Lab     8.4%
BNP   4.5%


Newcastle under Lyme BC - Madeley

Ind   38.1%
Con  27.3%
Lab   25.3%
LD      9.3%


Tonbridge & Malling DC - Trench

Con   49.5%
Lab    29.9%
UKIP 20.6%

[middleenglander]

9 entries this week with Carlton43 reappearing after missing Monday be no script entered from either finsobruce or again philipchandler.
Mark Senior had no prediction for the Green candidate in Maldon with hempie & Robert Waller appearing to copy his format by also having no prediction.

Lancaster, University & Scotforth Rural: 8 Labour hold majority from 4% (Mark Senior over Green) to 14% (Robert Waller over both Conservative & Green) with Greenhert Green gain
Maldon, Maldon West: 5 Conservative hold majority over Independent ranging from 9% (Carlton43 & Hempie) to 12% (Lancastrian) with Greenhert, Maxque, Pete Whitehead & Robert Waller Independent gain
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Madeley: 4 Labour hold, Lancastrian, Maxque, Pete Whitehead & Robert Waller Independent gain, Carlton43 Conservative again
Telford & Wrekin, Horesehay & Lightmoor: 100% Conservative hold with majority over Labour ranging from 10% (Greenhert) to 25% (Carlton43)
Tonbridge & Malling: Trench: 100% Conservative hold with majority over Labour ranging from 9% (Greenhert) to 30% (Carlton43)[/quote]

[finsobruce]

bugger. I did all the predictions and then obviously didn't post it properly...

[gwynthegriff]

Dec 8, 2016 8:54:31 GMT maxque said:

Lancaster, University & Scotforth Rural: Lab 36.4, Grn 33.5, Con 23.7, LD 6.4
Maldon, Maldon West: Ind 41, Con 32, UKIP 11, Lab 7, Grn 5, BNP 4
Newcastle under Lyme, Madeley: Ind 51, Con 29, Lab 18, LD 2
Telford and Wrekin,Horsehay & Lightmoor: Con 46, Lab 32, UKIP 22
Tonbridge and Malling, Trench: Con 53, Lab 25, UKIP 22

If the LDs only get 2% in Madeley I'm going to ask for my petrol money back!

[Robert Waller]

Darn it, ME is right. I wondered why my figures didn't add up to 100 in Maldon when I first posted them ... fwiw, I had Green on 5% originally, so I'm not expecting to lose too much by my error.

Really bad luck for Finsobruce, who is think was leading ... though it's always worth checking that the predictions have appeared.

[maxque]

Weren't results capped at 100? It seems wierd you might be better off NOT making a prediction.