|
|
Post by middleenglander on Nov 25, 2016 15:31:26 GMT
Basingstoke & Deane, Tadley South - Conservative hold
| Party | 2016 B votes | 2016 B share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2012 | since 2011 | Conservative | 456 | 49.2% | -13.9% | -12.1% | -12.5% | -10.0% | Liberal Democrat | 342 | 36.9% | +16.4% | +13.8% | +16.1% | +20.5% | Labour | 88 | 9.5% | -7.0% | -6.1% | -8.1% | -7.2% | UKIP | 41 | 4.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | -3.3% | Total votes | 927 |
| 71% | 32% | 83% | 51% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 13 % / 15% since 2016, 2015, 2012 and 2011 Council now 33 Conservative, 19 Labour, 6 Liberal Democrat
Carlisle, Castle - Labour hold | Party | 2016 B2 votes | 2016 B2 share | since 2016 B1 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 B | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Labour | 350 | 49.3% | +2.7% | -0.6% | +9.0% | +10.9% | +12.0% | -7.5% | Conservative | 194 | 27.3% | +0.7% | +3.7% | -1.4% | +4.9% | +8.4% | +13.2% | UKIP | 79 | 11.1% | -1.4% | -2.6% | -3.6% | -10.8% | -11.8% | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 51 | 7.2% | -3.1% | -1.0% | +1.0% | -5.6% | -3.7% | -12.4% | Green | 36 | 5.1% | +1.1% | +0.5% | -3.2% | +0.6% | -2.4% | -4.4% | TUSC |
|
|
|
| -1.8% |
| -2.4% |
| Total votes | 710 |
| 83% | 78% | 30% | 75% | 61% | 61% |
Swing Conservative to Labour 1% since September by-election, ~5% since 2015, 3% since 2014 by-election and 1¾% since 2014 but Labour to Conservative ~2% since May and ~10% since 2012 Council now 27 Labour, 20 Conservative, 4 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat
Eastbourne, Sovereign - Conservative hold
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 1,276 | 65.2% | +24.4% | +23.5% | +17.0% | +17.8% | Liberal Democrat | 528 | 27.0% | +1.6% | +2.2% | -3.3% | -3.4% | Labour | 152 | 7.8% | +0.0% | -0.3% | -1.3% | -1.7% | UKIP |
|
| 21.1% | -19.8% |
|
| Green |
|
| 4.8% | -5.5% | -12.4% | -12.8% | Total votes | 1,956 |
| 30% | 34% | 50% | 51% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~11½% / 10½% since 2015 and ~10% / 10½% since 2011 Council now 18 Liberal Democrat, 9 Conservative
Mansfield, Warsop Carrs - Labour hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | Labour | 285 | 47.9% | -25.3% | -26.5% | No Description | 211 | 35.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 74 | 12.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 25 | 4.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Mansfield Independent Forum |
|
| -26.8% | -18.6% | Liberal Democrat |
|
|
| -7.0% | Total votes | 595 |
| 41% | 73% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 17 Mansfield Independent Forum, 17 Labour, 2 UKIP
|
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Nov 25, 2016 15:48:25 GMT
Newcastle-upon-Tyne - Labour hold | Party | 2016 B2 votes | 2016 B2 share | since 2016 B1 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | Labour | 892 | 44.9% | +3.0% | -18.3% | -10.6% | -25.7% | -25.7% | Liberal Democrat | 784 | 39.4% | +12.1% | +30.3% | +30.1% | +21.4% | +17.2% | Newcastle First | 164 | 8.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 148 | 7.4% | -0.5% | -0.1% | -4.1% | -4.0% | +0.2% | UKIP |
|
| -18.5% | -16.1% | -18.4% |
|
| Green |
|
| -4.4% | -4.0% | -5.3% |
|
| Total votes | 1,988 |
| 83% | 68% | 43% | 74% | 72% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat ~4½% since September by-election but ~24% since May, 20% since 2015, 23½% since 2014 and 21.5% since 2012
Council now 55 Labour, 20 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent
Pendle, Reedley - Conservative gain from Labour
| Party | 2016 B votes | 2016 B share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Conservative | 1,267 | 51.1% | +5.7% | +8.4% | +4.2% | +8.1% | Labour | 1,156 | 46.6% | +6.7% | -7.6% | -1.8% | -1.9% | Liberal Democrat | 57 | 2.3% | -3.7% | from nowhere | +0.3% | -6.2% | UKIP |
|
| -7.5% |
|
|
| TUSC |
|
| -1.2% | -3.1% | -2.6% |
| Total votes
| 2,480 |
| 101% | 79% | 103% | 116% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ½% since May but Labour to Conservative 8% since 2015, 3% since 2014 and 5% since 2012
Council now 22 Conservative, 16 Labour, 10 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent BNP
South Somerset, Turn Hill - Conservative hold
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | since 2007 | | Conservative | 452 | 51.4% | -6.6% | -7.7% | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 354 | 40.2% | +5.9% | -0.7% | from nowhere | Labour | 74 | 8.4% | +0.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent 1 |
|
|
|
| -58.9% | Independent 2 |
|
|
|
| -41.1% | Total votes | 880 |
| 48% | 70% | 81% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 6¼% since 2015 and 3½% since 2011 Council now 30 Liberal Democrat, 25 Conservative, 3 Independent, 2 Independent Conservative
Tandridge, Valley - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2016 B votes | 2016 B share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2012 | since 2011 | | Liberal Democrat | 444 | 51.6% | +12.9% | +16.6% | +22.1% | +11.9% | Conservative | 215 | 25.0% | +1.0% | -8.8% | -15.0%
| -10.3% | UKIP | 145 | 16.8% | +2.1% | -0.4% | +3.7% | +3.8% | Labour | 57 | 6.6% | -6.3% | -7.3% | -2.7% | -5.4% | Independent |
|
| -9.7% |
|
|
| Green |
|
|
|
| -8.2%
|
| Total votes | 861 |
| 78% | 42% | 86% | 65% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~6% since May, 12¾% since 2015, 18½% since 2012 (when a Conservative elected in 2008 again won) and ~11% since 2011 Council now 31 Conservative, 6 Liberal Democrat, 3 Residents, 2 Independent
|
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,137 
|
Post by Foggy on Nov 25, 2016 17:25:58 GMT
Although Sovereign ward isn't necessarily indicative of the constituency as a whole, I think it's important to note that we now have some electoral proof of my strong suspicion that the Lib Dems will not win back a seat like Eastbourne on anti-Brexit platform, despite it being the closest Tory-LD marginal at the last GE. of the by elections , you will see that Sovereign is very untypical . The new Marina and associated new housing has made the ward much more Conservative than it was just 10 years ago . Having said that , I had thought the Lib Dems would get closer than they did . Look upthread and you'll see that I'm the one who linked to it this week! I didn't need to read the preview for Sovereign anyway as I know the area and was last there under 18 months ago. It's possible that even more housing with Tory-friendly residents has been built since then. A UKIP candidate would've needed to take a third of those Conservative votes for that Lib Dem score to seem remotely competitive. Within the Eastbourne constituency, I'd say Willingdon ward from Wealden is probably an even bigger outlier than Sovereign. Caroline Ansell will not be losing any sleep. |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Nov 25, 2016 17:35:54 GMT
If you read Andrew Teale's preview of the by elections , you will see that Sovereign is very untypical . The new Marina and associated new housing has made the ward much more Conservative than it was just 10 years ago . Having said that , I had thought the Lib Dems would get closer than they did . Look upthread and you'll see that I'm the one who linked to it this week! I didn't need to read the preview for Sovereign anyway as I know the area and was last there under 18 months ago. It's possible that even more housing with Tory-friendly residents has been built since then. A UKIP candidate would've needed to take a third of those Conservative votes for that Lib Dem score to seem remotely competitive. Within the Eastbourne constituency, I'd say Willingdon ward from Wealden is probably an even bigger outlier than Sovereign. Caroline Ansell will not be losing any sleep. I thought the winner's CV indicated a very strong candidate, at least on paper. Born and bred locally, senior lecturer / manager in FE, lifeboat crew / manager for 30 years, school governor, sea cadets, local church, Eastbourne 999 committee (whatever that is). |
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,137
|
Post by Foggy on Nov 25, 2016 17:44:40 GMT
I thought the winner's CV indicated a very strong candidate, at least on paper. Born and bred locally, senior lecturer / manager in FE, lifeboat crew / manager for 30 years, school governor, sea cadets, local church, Eastbourne 999 committee (whatever that is). Yes, that all matters, particularly in a local campaign. The UKIP candidate for the parliamentary seat last year had an excellent CV for a prospective MP too, but without many obvious links to the area. The eventual winner was described in her election literature as a "local mum", but the part of town I lived in appeared to have been taken over by some sort of Stephen Lloyd personality cult. I wrongly assumed he was safe as houses based on that. Of course the parties' respective views on EU membership were less of an issue then. |
|
|
|
Post by tonygreaves on Nov 26, 2016 16:14:19 GMT
The turnout in Reedley (Pendle BC) was 58%. A little statistic that hides rather a lot...
|
|
mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,764
|
Post by mboy on Nov 27, 2016 11:06:27 GMT
I think in recent by-elections we are seeing what happens when the Lib Dem activists who will travel are busy in Parliamentary by-elections, so local parties have to rely on their own resources. Possibly a better guide to next May that the surprising gains over the summer. Good holds and swings to Lib Dem in most places, but Tory votes also holding up with a net swing from UKIP to Tory as seen nationally I think there's some truth in that, but also the winter weather reduced activist output, and that will recover in time for the locals in May... |
|
