rocky
Non-Aligned
Posts: 122 
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Post by rocky on Nov 24, 2016 23:52:02 GMT
Personal changes in my life in January (among others, my wedding and me going back to studies) will make me unable to have the time neccessary to create these threads anymore. Someone will have to take over. I am sorry if someone is annoyed by that annoucement, but, you have to make choices in life, I had to drop some things I was doing on my free time and this is what I chose to drop. I would like to echo the words of appreciation above for your much valued contributions. Best wishes ahead for your married life and your studies. Agreed many thanks for all your work on them always a good read |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
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Post by maxque on Nov 25, 2016 0:00:00 GMT
Sovereign (Eastbourne) Result Con 1276 LD 528 Lab 152 Con 65.2% (+24.3) LD 27.0% (+1.6) Lab 7.8% (0.0) |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,137
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Post by Foggy on Nov 25, 2016 1:42:43 GMT
Sovereign (Eastbourne) Result Con 1276 LD 528 Lab 152 Con 65.2% (+24.3) LD 27.0% (+1.6) Lab 7.8% (0.0) Although Sovereign ward isn't necessarily indicative of the constituency as a whole, I think it's important to note that we now have some electoral proof of my strong suspicion that the Lib Dems will not win back a seat like Eastbourne on anti-Brexit platform, despite it being the closest Tory-LD marginal at the last GE. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Nov 25, 2016 2:42:17 GMT
Con 65.2% (+24.3) LD 27.0% (+1.6) Lab 7.8% (0.0) Although Sovereign ward isn't necessarily indicative of the constituency as a whole, I think it's important to note that we now have some electoral proof of my strong suspicion that the Lib Dems will not win back a seat like Eastbourne on anti-Brexit platform, despite it being the closest Tory-LD marginal at the last GE. True if UKIP doesn't stand. In the likely case UKIP stands, I'm not sure that result learns us much. |
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zoe
Conservative
Posts: 637
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Post by zoe on Nov 25, 2016 6:16:34 GMT
I would like to echo the words of appreciation above for your much valued contributions. Best wishes ahead for your married life and your studies. Agreed many thanks for all your work on them always a good read Congratulations and thank you. |
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zoe
Conservative
Posts: 637
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Post by zoe on Nov 25, 2016 6:18:48 GMT
Although Sovereign ward isn't necessarily indicative of the constituency as a whole, I think it's important to note that we now have some electoral proof of my strong suspicion that the Lib Dems will not win back a seat like Eastbourne on anti-Brexit platform, despite it being the closest Tory-LD marginal at the last GE. True if UKIP doesn't stand. In the likely case UKIP stands, I'm not sure that result learns us much. No UKIP in Richmond Park.  |
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Post by lbarnes on Nov 25, 2016 9:05:03 GMT
Con 65.2% (+24.3) LD 27.0% (+1.6) Lab 7.8% (0.0) Although Sovereign ward isn't necessarily indicative of the constituency as a whole, I think it's important to note that we now have some electoral proof of my strong suspicion that the Lib Dems will not win back a seat like Eastbourne on anti-Brexit platform, despite it being the closest Tory-LD marginal at the last GE. Sovereign ward isn't just not necessarily indicative of the seat it's about as big an outlier as you can get. |
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Post by marksenior on Nov 25, 2016 9:32:13 GMT
Con 65.2% (+24.3) LD 27.0% (+1.6) Lab 7.8% (0.0) Although Sovereign ward isn't necessarily indicative of the constituency as a whole, I think it's important to note that we now have some electoral proof of my strong suspicion that the Lib Dems will not win back a seat like Eastbourne on anti-Brexit platform, despite it being the closest Tory-LD marginal at the last GE. If you read Andrew Teale's preview of the by elections , you will see that Sovereign is very untypical . The new Marina and associated new housing has made the ward much more Conservative than it was just 10 years ago . Having said that , I had thought the Lib Dems would get closer than they did . |
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Post by marksenior on Nov 25, 2016 9:36:43 GMT
Newcastle Blakelaw result was
Lab 892
LDem 784
New 1st 164
Con 148
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 25, 2016 9:38:06 GMT
Although Sovereign ward isn't necessarily indicative of the constituency as a whole, I think it's important to note that we now have some electoral proof of my strong suspicion that the Lib Dems will not win back a seat like Eastbourne on anti-Brexit platform, despite it being the closest Tory-LD marginal at the last GE. If you read Andrew Teale's preview of the by elections , you will see that Sovereign is very untypical . The new Marina and associated new housing has made the ward much more Conservative than it was just 10 years ago . Having said that , I had thought the Lib Dems would win . FTFY |
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Post by marksenior on Nov 25, 2016 9:41:25 GMT
South Somerset result Con hold
Con 452
LDem 354
Lab 74
I believe Basingstoke is counting later
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Post by marksenior on Nov 25, 2016 9:44:55 GMT
If you read Andrew Teale's preview of the by elections , you will see that Sovereign is very untypical . The new Marina and associated new housing has made the ward much more Conservative than it was just 10 years ago . Having said that , I had thought the Lib Dems would win . FTFY Not actually true . Forecasts in the competition are not necessarily what I think will happen and if I had read Andrew Teale's preview first they may or may not have been different . |
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 25, 2016 10:29:06 GMT
Turn Hill (South Somerset) result:
CON: 51.4% (-6.6)
LDEM: 40.2% (+5.9)
LAB: 8.4% (+0.7)
Conservative HOLD.
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 25, 2016 10:51:23 GMT
I think in recent by-elections we are seeing what happens when the Lib Dem activists who will travel are busy in Parliamentary by-elections, so local parties have to rely on their own resources. Possibly a better guide to next May that the surprising gains over the summer. Good holds and swings to Lib Dem in most places, but Tory votes also holding up with a net swing from UKIP to Tory as seen nationally
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 25, 2016 13:54:02 GMT
Tadley is taking a tad long to declare
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Post by Antiochian on Nov 25, 2016 14:00:31 GMT
Spoke to someone at scrutiny in Tadley and they said 13% swing to LibDems but Tory hold. Numbers to follow.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Nov 25, 2016 14:01:38 GMT
Tadley is taking a tad long to declare There's nothing on Twitter on it bar campaigning messages, the council said "Count starting at 10.00am and that's all, and if it was a recount you'd think Twitter would have something about it. There were 3,000 votes or so in 2015 to count but even so four hours is a bit of a long time. |
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Post by Antiochian on Nov 25, 2016 14:09:16 GMT
Rough numbers for Tadley
LibDem 36%
Tory 49%
Turnout just over 20%...
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Post by marksenior on Nov 25, 2016 14:27:30 GMT
Tadley
Con 456
LDem 342
Lab 88
UKIP 41
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Nov 25, 2016 14:54:40 GMT
Tadley Con 456 LDem 342 Lab 88 UKIP 41 Con 49.2% (-13.8) LD 36.9% (+16.4) Lab 9.5% (-6.9) UKIP 4.4% |
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