By-elections - November 10th

[maxque]

Eltham North - Greenwich LBC - Wynn Davies (Labour) resigned due to moving to Shropshire. He was a councillor since 2014.

2014: Con 1975/1823/1519, Lab 1946/1942/1556, UKIP 1221, Grn 591, BNP 307, LD 207/205
2010: Con 3078/2968/2774, Lab 2395/2338/2330, LD 1126/1073/816, BNP 686, Grn 625
2006: Con 2344/2164/2096, Lab 1220/1165/1084, LD 1083/1015/871, UKIP 634, Grn 584
Feb 2005 by: Con 1326, Lab 1252, LD 289, UKIP 193, CPA 20
2002: Con 1914/1893/1841, Lab 1537/1474/1400, LD 651/615/569, Socialist Alliance 134

Matt Browne (Green Party Candidate)
Charlie Davis (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Sam Macauley (Liberal Democrats)
Simon Peirce (Labour Party)
Barbara Ray (UK Independence Party (UKIP))

2016 results:
Mayor: Con 1848, Lab 1462, UKIP 271, Grn 241, LD 208, WEP 76, BF 57, CISTA 36, Respect 31, BNP 20, Zylinski 9, OLP 5
List: Con 1490, Lab 1348, UKIP 572, Grn 327, LD 243, WEP 127, BF 73, AWP 57, BNP 32, CPA 29, Respect 37, House 15
Constituency: Lab 1560, Con 1525, UKIP 653, Grn 360, LD 239, APP 12

Southwater - Horsham DC - Ian Howard (Conservative) died. He was a councillor from 1999 to 2003 and since 2007 and he was the Cabinet Member for Planning until he resigned from Cabinet in 2013 due to health issues.

2015: Con 2583/2442/2347, LD 1233/743, UKIP 1099/946, Ind 814, Grn 801, Lab 690
2011: Con 1857/1806/1721, LD 1073/834/666, UKIP 495
2007: Con 1575/1433/1405, LD 1312/1265/1195
2003: LD 1232/1227/1205, Con 971/966/938, Lab 179

Uri Baran (United Kingdom Independence Party)
Billy Greening (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Richard Greenwood (Liberal Democrats)
Kevin O'Sullivan (Labour Party)

Hitchin Oughton - North Hertfordshire DC - Simon Watson (Labour) resigned. He was a councillor since 2016.
2016-2020 term

2016: Lab 505, Con 328, Grn 102, LD 89
2014: Lab 450, UKIP 278, Con 252, Grn 89, LD 55
Sept 13 by: Lab 361, Con 180, UKIP 148, Grn 32, LD 31
2012: Lab 638, Con 258, Grn 103, LD 50
2010: Lab 888, Con 795, LD 461, Grn 138
2008: Lab 640, Con 410, LD 108, Grn 99
2007: Lab 643/636, Con 326/322, LD 124, Grn 119/89
2006: Lab 511, Con 400, LD 151, Grn 107
2004: Lab 581, Con 377, LD 251
2002: Lab 656, Con 308, LD 156

Serena Farrow (Conservative Party)
George Howe (The Green Party)
Jackie McDonald (Independent)
Louise Peace (Liberal Democrats)
Martin Stears-Handscomb (Labour and Co-operative Party)

Queenstown - Wandsworth LBC - Sally-Ann Ephson (Labour) died. She was a councillor since 2014 and was a former board member of the Sickle Cell Society.

2014: Con 1773/1711/1678, Lab 1753/1665/1650, Grn 401/385/306, UKIP 313, LD 237/151
2010: Con 2894/2888/2781, Lab 2385/2327/2133, LD 1113/886/751, Grn 562/490
2006: Con 1793/1769/1666, Lab 1362/1346/1336, Grn 586, Ind 320
2002: Con 1390/1362/1279, Lab 1194/1128/1112, LD 239

Stella Baker (The Green Party)
Richard Davis (Liberal Democrats)
Rhodri Morgan (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Aydin Osborne Dikerdem (Labour Party)

2016 results:
Mayor: Lab 1574, Con 1260, Grn 240, LD 150, WEP 97, UKIP 67, Respect 41, BF 40, CISTA 35, Zylinski 18, BNP 16, OLP 2
List: Lab 1382, Con 1140, Grn 326, LD 209, WEP 176, UKIP 119, BF 53, Respect 48, CPA 36, AWP 35, BNP 14, House 10
Constituency: Lab 1571, Con 1320, Grn 329, LD 190, UKIP 123, Ind 5

[Crimson King]

Horsham should be interesting as (more or less) a 3 way C/LD/UKIP marginal

[carlton43]

Horsham a Conservative hold in current climate with Conservatives gains in Eltham and Wandsworth fairly likely and even possible at Hitchin?

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 8, 2016 15:23:22 GMT carlton43 said:

Horsham a Conservative hold in current climate with Conservatives gains in Eltham and Wandsworth fairly likely and even possible at Hitchin?

Doubtful I'd say - as the figures above show they didn't come close even in the dark dying days of Gordon Brown's premiership. I'm not sure why this area is quite so loyal to Labour as it's no worse than some wards in for example Hemel which have regularly and comfortably elected Tory councillors (or some of those in Letchworth for that matter)

[carlton43]

Nov 8, 2016 15:58:34 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Nov 8, 2016 15:23:22 GMT carlton43 said:

Horsham a Conservative hold in current climate with Conservatives gains in Eltham and Wandsworth fairly likely and even possible at Hitchin?

Doubtful I'd say - as the figures above show they didn't come close even in the dark dying days of Gordon Brown's premiership. I'm not sure why this area is quite so loyal to Labour as it's no worse than some wards in for example Hemel which have regularly and comfortably elected Tory councillors (or some of those in Letchworth for that matter)

Well, that was the base of my point, as it all used to be quite Labour once and unless I have overlooked some demographic change, it occurred that it could be the early  beneficiary of 'Corbyn-Drift'  if we are to believe a fundamental shift in smaller town/suburbia/commuter seats in the Midlands/South?

[bigfatron]

Tories have only gained a handful of seats in the last 6 months, but you are predicting 3 gains?
That seems a bit odd...

To me these look to be fairly steady as you go, with a possible Lib Dem gain in Horsham and a possible Tory gain in Eltham,.

[Robert Waller]

Andrew Teale's informative review:
election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews-10-11-16

[Adam in Stroud]

Not looking like a good night for us, for second successive week. Boo!  

[Davıd Boothroyd]

[marksenior]

Hitchin Lab hold

Lab 258 Ind 200 Con 158 LD 150 Green 42

[maxque]

Nov 10, 2016 22:58:54 GMT marksenior said:

Hitchin Lab hold

Lab 258 Ind 200 Con 158 LD 150 Green 42

Lab 31.9% (-17.4)
Ind 24.8%
Con 19.6% (-12.4)
LD 18.6% (+9.9)
Grn 5.2% (-4.8)

[David Ashforth]

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Eltham North turnout is 31.33% (3,185 votes).

[Georg Ebner]

Is Macaulay a common name or is the LD-candidate in ElthamN a relative?

[andrea]

Wandsworth - Queenstown

Lab 1551
Con 987
Lib Dem 249
Green 122

[David Ashforth]

[Davıd Boothroyd]

WANDSWORTH Queenstown

Aydin Osborne Dikerdem (Labour Party) 1,551
Rhodri Morgan (The Conservative Party Candidate) 987
Richard Davis (Liberal Democrats) 249
Stella Baker (The Green Party) 122

[Old Fashioned Leftie]

Queenstown (Wandsworth)

Lab 53.3% (+14%)
Con 33.9% (-5.5%)
LD 8.6% (+3%)
Green 4.2% (-5%)

[marksenior]

Horsham Con hold

Con 1046 LD 308 Lab 118 UKIP 109

[Robert Waller]

Southwater (Horsham) result:
CON: 66.2% (+30.4)
LDEM: 19.5% (+2.4)
LAB: 7.5% (-2.1)
UKIP: 6.9% (-8.3)