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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2016 22:07:12 GMT
It's been a weird parliament for byelections. Firstly, eight in under 18 months seems a lot - but worth noting that only 3 were following deaths, and one of those - of course - under unusual circumstances. Then there's the sequence - four Labour defences, then the special circumstances of Batley & Spen, then three Conservative defences - all following resignations! And very different patterns. (I've excluded Batley & Spen from this analysis.) Labour - up in 3 of the first 4 (a tiny fall in Ogmore); down in all of the last 3. Conservatives down in all seven. (I've included the sort-of-independent Zak) Lib Dems stationary in first 4, up in last 3 (hugely in Witney & Richmond). UKIP - within 3 %points of 2015 except in Witney (down 5.7). Green - marginally down in all 4 they contested. Do you think we may see different patterns pre and post Brexit? |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2016 22:16:49 GMT
Every by-election has a story and every story has its interpretation.
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 9, 2016 22:29:11 GMT
Every by-election has a story and every story has its interpretation. And I, Edgar Lustgarten, will be bringing you another tale of corruption, lust and chicanery from the rich annals of political by-elections next week. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 9, 2016 22:37:59 GMT
I am surprised how well the Conservative vote held up here, bearing in mind this by-election was brought about by resignation rather than death - and after what we witnessed in Witney and Richmond Park. I was thinking it would be somewhere in the low 40s. One has to go back to May and June of 1982 to find by-elections where the Conservatives defended parliamentary seats whilst in government with such small decreases in the party's share of the vote. It was -1.3% in Coatbridge & Airdrie, -0.5% in Mitcham and Morden, +0.1% in Beaconsfield. In all cases, Labour lost support to the Liberal-SDP Alliance. Mitcham and Morden wasn't in fact a defence, extraordinarily it was a gain with a (marginally) reduced vote share. It was, I think, the only seat where a sitting Labour MP defected to the SDP and called a by-election. The Liberal vote had been pretty insignificant and Angela Rumbold won it for the Tories vs essentially a split Labour vote and held it until the demise of the SDP, which essentially re-united the Labour vote. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 9, 2016 22:49:45 GMT
It's been a weird parliament for byelections. Firstly, eight in under 18 months seems a lot - but worth noting that only 3 were following deaths, and one of those - of course - under unusual circumstances. Then there's the sequence - four Labour defences, then the special circumstances of Batley & Spen, then three Conservative defences - all following resignations! And very different patterns. (I've excluded Batley & Spen from this analysis.) Labour - up in 3 of the first 4 (a tiny fall in Ogmore); down in all of the last 3. Conservatives down in all seven. (I've included the sort-of-independent Zak) Lib Dems stationary in first 4, up in last 3 (hugely in Witney & Richmond). UKIP - within 3 %points of 2015 except in Witney (down 5.7). Green - marginally down in all 4 they contested. Good spot Gwyn. The comfort for Labour has to be that notwithstanding the general derision for Corbyn their vote share was up in their safe seats - not a threat to the Tories of course, as their aim should be, but not a meltdown either. Collapses in Tory seats aren't disastrous and might even be advantageous if it leads to Tory losses to LDs (making slightly dodgy assumption that it's better for Labour for a seat to be held by LD rather than Conservative.) And the prospect of further trouble for the Tories from 2017 when we enter into the true "mid-term blues." The £50m question has to be whether the dichotomy in Labour results is due to the divide in Labour-Tory defences, or whether it follows from pre- or post- Brexit by elections. My gut feeling based on council by-elections is that it may be the latter. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Dec 9, 2016 22:50:04 GMT
I am surprised how well the Conservative vote held up here, bearing in mind this by-election was brought about by resignation rather than death - and after what we witnessed in Witney and Richmond Park. I was thinking it would be somewhere in the low 40s. One has to go back to May and June of 1982 to find by-elections where the Conservatives defended parliamentary seats whilst in government with such small decreases in the party's share of the vote. It was -1.3% in Coatbridge & Airdrie, -0.5% in Mitcham and Morden, +0.1% in Beaconsfield. In all cases, Labour lost support to the Liberal-SDP Alliance. Mitcham and Morden wasn't in fact a defence, extraordinarily it was a gain with a (marginally) reduced vote share. It was, I think, the only seat where a sitting Labour MP defected to the SDP and called a by-election. The Liberal vote had been pretty insignificant and Angela Rumbold won it for the Tories vs essentially a split Labour vote and held it until the demise of the SDP, which essentially re-united the Labour vote. Yes, it was a gain, of course. I haven't worded the above very well, but I can see the parallels with Sleaford and the early summer of 1982. It makes me wonder if there are any Labour seats the Conservatives could actually gain in by-elections at this time, given current polls. Angela Rumbold did manage to hold on for one final term in 1992, after the demise of the SDP. |
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Post by greenhert on Dec 9, 2016 22:53:12 GMT
problem for labour is a chunk of this seat may end up in the Lincoln seat at next election and that is a key seat if labour hopes to win power. The 'chunk' you are referring to will be the 'North Hykeham' part (which is really a suburb of the city of Lincoln nowadays) of Sleaford & North Hykeham, leaving just Sleaford. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 9, 2016 23:01:13 GMT
Yes, it was a gain, of course. I haven't worded the above very well, but I can see the parallels with Sleaford and the early summer of 1982. It makes me wonder if there are any Labour seats the Conservatives could actually gain in by-elections at this time, given current polls. Angela Rumbold did manage to hold on for one final term in 1992, after the demise of the SDP. I see what you mean. If Corbyn = Foot, could a static or slightly rising Tory vote take seats off Labour? In 1982 the SDP/Alliance took Labour (and perhaps "wet" Tory) votes to a 3rd party, now the polls suggest a straight movement from Labour to Con, or Labour to sit-on-hands while Tories turn out to vote. On Rumbold, yes, it wasn't a straight SDP collapse, more a slw ebbing of support from Alliance to Labour putting the latter in pole position when the Tories collapsed in 1997 and tactical voting was rampant. Failure to take M+M in 1992 was I suppose one of the bricks in Major's surprise victory. I ran into Siobhain McDonagh a few times round about then and thought she was a terrible light-weight. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Dec 9, 2016 23:11:23 GMT
North Kesteven District Council have posted a YouTube video of the declaration with speeches by the three candidates with the most votes:
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 9, 2016 23:49:37 GMT
Mitcham and Morden wasn't in fact a defence, extraordinarily it was a gain with a (marginally) reduced vote share. It was, I think, the only seat where a sitting Labour MP defected to the SDP and called a by-election. The Liberal vote had been pretty insignificant and Angela Rumbold won it for the Tories vs essentially a split Labour vote and held it until the demise of the SDP, which essentially re-united the Labour vote. Yes, it was a gain, of course. I haven't worded the above very well, but I can see the parallels with Sleaford and the early summer of 1982. It makes me wonder if there are any Labour seats the Conservatives could actually gain in by-elections at this time, given current polls. Angela Rumbold did manage to hold on for one final term in 1992, after the demise of the SDP. I certainly think there are seats, especially in the north of England, where the Tories could potentially make by election gains in the right circumstances. Off the top of my head somewhere like Scunthorpe strikes my as possible and there are seats like Halifax that Labour held with very slim majorities in 2015. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 10, 2016 0:35:51 GMT
So on that basis, how much did Labour's 1993 results in Newbury and Christchurch actually mean? It meant nothing for the same reason that their recent performance in Richmond Park meant nothing (and no-one with any credibility is trying to suggest otherwise). Here there was no issue of any kind of squeeze - no case of obviously Labour supporters voting tactically for another party. It was simply a dismal result |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Dec 10, 2016 0:38:04 GMT
So on that basis, how much did Labour's 1993 results in Newbury and Christchurch actually mean? It meant nothing for the same reason that their recent performance in Richmond Park meant nothing (and no-one with any credibility is trying to suggest otherwise). Here there was no issue of any kind of squeeze - no case of obviously Labour supporters voting tactically for another party. It was simply a dismal result Though I suspect this time Labour got more votes than their local membership. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 10, 2016 0:40:16 GMT
I think this is a serious Tweet from a Labour supporter:
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 10, 2016 0:40:25 GMT
It meant nothing for the same reason that their recent performance in Richmond Park meant nothing (and no-one with any credibility is trying to suggest otherwise). Here there was no issue of any kind of squeeze - no case of obviously Labour supporters voting tactically for another party. It was simply a dismal result Though I suspect this time Labour got more votes than their local membership. Well indeed which just goes to show that Labour's vote in RP was not a reflection of their level of support whereas here it has to be taken pretty much as just that |
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Post by johnloony on Dec 10, 2016 1:02:08 GMT
So on that basis, how much did Labour's 1993 results in Newbury and Christchurch actually mean? It meant nothing for the same reason that their recent performance in Richmond Park meant nothing (and no-one with any credibility is trying to suggest otherwise). Here there was no issue of any kind of squeeze - no case of obviously Labour supporters voting tactically for another party. It was simply a dismal result It was meaningful and significant because it was a clear indication that the voters were ratcheting up the process of tactical voting in order to defeat Conservative candidates as decisively as possible. |
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on Dec 10, 2016 7:19:15 GMT
I think this is a serious Tweet from a Labour supporter: I hate to say it - but she is being sarcastic... I think she's on EAL wing of Labour... However. these responses to the latest opinion poll ratings are genuine and should really worry the comrades... YorksLass @chrissieoap 5h5 hours ago .@lbc FYI HilaryBenn could lose his seat at next GE. Poll on local TV news 89% disagreed with him re #Syria speech.They agreed with Corbyn Famous Blue Raincoat @managerboardout 6h6 hours ago @lbc What are opinion polls worth? Polls said #brexit and #Trump were done for! YorksLass @chrissieoap 6h6 hours ago .@lbc #RichardSpurr YouGov founded by ToryMP Zahawi and you expect public to believe their polls? Ha! ha! |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 10, 2016 9:12:36 GMT
Yes, it was a gain, of course. I haven't worded the above very well, but I can see the parallels with Sleaford and the early summer of 1982. It makes me wonder if there are any Labour seats the Conservatives could actually gain in by-elections at this time, given current polls. Angela Rumbold did manage to hold on for one final term in 1992, after the demise of the SDP. I certainly think there are seats, especially in the north of England, where the Tories could potentially make by election gains in the right circumstances. Off the top of my head somewhere like Scunthorpe strikes my as possible and there are seats like Halifax that Labour held with very slim majorities in 2015. Dewsbury, Grimsby and Mansfield? |
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 10, 2016 9:58:01 GMT
I think it displays very well the fact that there are all sorts of different positions and trends which exist in the two main parties. They aren't particularly coherent and its nlikely they can be resolved within the traditional 'broad church' I agree with that Mike but see it as an insiders view and not how the uninvolved outsiders have long felt. I think its more complicated. Labour are doing well in some areas, not in others, as for that matter are the LD's and Ukip. The Tories are more consistently maintaining support, but they did only get 37% last time despite the parliamentary majority. I think most of the parties look quite divided and its not altogether clear what they stand for - I accept that we are currently much more affected by that problem than anyone else at present. But should the negotiations progress as I expect I think the Tories divisions will rise up again. Sections of the population feel aggrieved about different things, but what is unpredictable is how that translates in a FPTP system.in terms of electoral outcomes. |
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 10, 2016 10:01:10 GMT
At the Barnsley by-election of 2011 the Tories polled their lowest ever share of the vote in the constituency, clearly proving that they were on the road to irrelevance across the nation. Ah! But there one has to go back to the 80s for the Conservatives to even break through a weak 20%. Since when it has been sub 20. In Sleaford Labour has more recently been over 34%. There is a real difference and you must see that. Not that I care of course and I do note it does not imply irrelevancy nationwide, but it ought to be damn worrying. In 1997, which really does have to be regarded as a freak election - Tory mass abstentionism in 2001 skewed matters somewhat too. Obviously Labour did very badly, but this is the sort of seat which will always be Conservative even in a freakishly good year for Labour. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 10, 2016 10:03:04 GMT
Sleaford and North Hykeham is the sort of seat where the Labour Party should have a very solid substantial vote. Labour should not be polling at 10%.
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