myth11
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Post by myth11 on Dec 9, 2016 20:18:52 GMT
problem for labour is a chunk of this seat may end up in the Lincoln seat at next election and that is a key seat if labour hopes to win power.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 9, 2016 20:19:57 GMT
At the Barnsley by-election of 2011 the Tories polled their lowest ever share of the vote in the constituency, clearly proving that they were on the road to irrelevance across the nation. Outside of heavily Muslim areas, and possibly Liverpool, Labour have become an irrelevance. What the hell do they stand for? Are they for or anti immigration? Are they for or anti Brexit? No-one trusts them on economic issues. They used to represent the Working Class - now Labour laughs at the Working Class. They used to be the establishment party in Scotland, even within the present decade. They used to be the party with the greatest support among the Jewish party - now they're the party of choice for anti-semites. I believe Corbyn was at yet another Jew-baiting event last night ..... That is a tribal and a strained and a tendentious post calculated to cause trouble and offence. Why do that? |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Dec 9, 2016 20:23:27 GMT
Er... they weren't defending Coatbridge & Airdrie; it had a Labour majority of 33% in 1979. Oops. Well, swan listed it as a defence and I can imagine it would've been very socially conservative for religious reasons at the time. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 9, 2016 20:25:34 GMT
problem for labour is a chunk of this seat may end up in the Lincoln seat at next election and that is a key seat if labour hopes to win power. That's more a comment on Labour's general organisational failings than this by-election. Why should organisation suddenly stop dead at the borough boundary? Not good, but also typical. |
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 9, 2016 20:37:32 GMT
I am surprised how well the Conservative vote held up here, bearing in mind this by-election was brought about by resignation rather than death - and after what we witnessed in Witney and Richmond Park. I was thinking it would be somewhere in the low 40s. One has to go back to May and June of 1982 to find by-elections where the Conservatives defended parliamentary seats whilst in government with such small decreases in the party's share of the vote. It was -1.3% in Coatbridge & Airdrie, -0.5% in Mitcham the and Morden, +0.1% in Beaconsfield. In all cases, Labour lost support to the Liberal-SDP Alliance. I think it is pretty clear that the Tories put far more effort into this by-election than any of the others, particularly i suspect into the postal vote. The full telephone canvas operation was in operation and the Lib Dems put in about 1/10 of the effort they put in in Witney, with virtually no canvassing before the final week. Labour did more in Witney and had a candidate with a local track record. Ukip had a handful of activists visiting and a candidate guaranteed to frighten Tory voters.. I am not at all surprised that the Tory vote fell very little - on a low turnout they worked hardest and got their vote out. I suspect that under the differential turnout there was Tory to Lib dem switching like there was in Witney, and probably Tory to Independent switching too. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 9, 2016 20:56:24 GMT
At the Barnsley by-election of 2011 the Tories polled their lowest ever share of the vote in the constituency, clearly proving that they were on the road to irrelevance across the nation. I would just point out to the Hon Member that the Conservatives were in government in 2011. Opposition parties are meant to benefit electorally from opposition. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 9, 2016 20:59:41 GMT
So on that basis, how much did Labour's 1993 results in Newbury and Christchurch actually mean?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2016 21:00:38 GMT
Outside of heavily Muslim areas, and possibly Liverpool, Labour have become an irrelevance. What the hell do they stand for? Are they for or anti immigration? Are they for or anti Brexit? No-one trusts them on economic issues. They used to represent the Working Class - now Labour laughs at the Working Class. They used to be the establishment party in Scotland, even within the present decade. They used to be the party with the greatest support among the Jewish party - now they're the party of choice for anti-semites. I believe Corbyn was at yet another Jew-baiting event last night ..... That is a tribal and a strained and a tendentious post calculated to cause trouble and offence. Why do that? I genuinely believe what I wrote to be true. Outside the inner-cities (where they are likely to gain) Labour are in terminal decline. It's very hard to see why anyone other than Muslims and SJWs would choose to vote Labour. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 9, 2016 21:03:05 GMT
If recent years have demonstrated anything, it is that lots of people "genuinely believe" all sorts of nonsense.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 9, 2016 21:06:22 GMT
Believe is a word fraught with baggage and overtones of religiosity.
I know, I understand, I think, I surmise, I am persuaded..........are all better.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2016 21:09:14 GMT
If recent years have demonstrated anything, it is that lots of people "genuinely believe" all sorts of nonsense. We'll see. I wanted Brexit and Trump to win, but predicted neither. I see no reason for 'ordinary' Working and Middle Class people to vote Labour. Your average person in the UK is not interested in Castro and Palestine. Those are the issues that matter to Muslims and Corbynistas. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Dec 9, 2016 21:20:36 GMT
Er... they weren't defending Coatbridge & Airdrie; it had a Labour majority of 33% in 1979. Oops. Well, swan listed it as a defence and I can imagine it would've been very socially conservative for religious reasons at the time. Mentioning Coatbridge was cheeky of me, as it was a Labour stronghold. But it followed the same pattern as Beaconsfield and Mitcham and Morden, which is why I mentioned it (ie. Tory vote steady, Labour down, Alliance up. Not that the Liberals had stood there in 1979 anyway...). |
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spqr
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Post by spqr on Dec 9, 2016 21:24:06 GMT
Er... they weren't defending Coatbridge & Airdrie; it had a Labour majority of 33% in 1979. Oops. Well, swan listed it as a defence and I can imagine it would've been very socially conservative for religious reasons at the time. The Coatbridge by-election was precipitated by the death of its sitting Labour MP, James Dempsey. He was very much of the socially-conservative 'Old Right', and as a Roman Catholic argued against changes to abortion law in the 1960s. He also became known for his opposition to British Airways using bikini-clad models in their public advertisements, and was involved in a campaign to curb glue-sniffing at the time of his death. In this, as you say, he would have reflected the opinions and instincts of a sizeable proportion of his constituency's electorate. He did, however, vote against the restoration of capital punishment when the issue was debated in 1979 (only three Labour MPs voted in favour). I don't really know what carlton43 was thinking about in his post, but the last time the Tories were serious challengers in the constituency was in 1959, when Dempsey - who was seeking election for the first time following the retirement of Jean 'Haud the Wean' Mann - won with a majority of just 794 over the Unionist candidate. (EDIT: Ah, I see now. Swanarcadian's original wording made Coatbridge sound like a Conservative defence...) |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 9, 2016 21:34:50 GMT
Oops. Well, swan listed it as a defence and I can imagine it would've been very socially conservative for religious reasons at the time. The Coatbridge by-election was precipitated by the death of its sitting MP, James Dempsey. He was very much of the socially-conservative 'Old Right', and as a Roman Catholic argued against changes to abortion law in the 1960s. He also became known for his opposition to British Airways using bikini-clad models in their public advertisements, and was involved in a campaign to curb glue-sniffing at the time of his death. In this, as you say, he would have reflected the opinions and instincts of a sizeable proportion of his constituency's electorate. He did, however, vote against the restoration of capital punishment when the issue was debated in 1979 (only three Labour MPs voted in favour). I don't really know what carlton43 was thinking about in his post, but the last time the Tories were serious challengers in the constituency was in 1959, when Dempsey - who was seeking election for the first time following the retirement of Jean 'Haud the Wean' Mann - won with a majority of just 794 over the Unionist candidate. (EDIT: Ah, I see now. Swanarcadian's original wording made Coatbridge sound like a Conservative defence...) Good stuff spqr and I did in fact live through and note all those events. It was indeed a humorous spoof to Swan. |
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spqr
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Post by spqr on Dec 9, 2016 21:38:06 GMT
The Coatbridge by-election was precipitated by the death of its sitting MP, James Dempsey. He was very much of the socially-conservative 'Old Right', and as a Roman Catholic argued against changes to abortion law in the 1960s. He also became known for his opposition to British Airways using bikini-clad models in their public advertisements, and was involved in a campaign to curb glue-sniffing at the time of his death. In this, as you say, he would have reflected the opinions and instincts of a sizeable proportion of his constituency's electorate. He did, however, vote against the restoration of capital punishment when the issue was debated in 1979 (only three Labour MPs voted in favour). I don't really know what carlton43 was thinking about in his post, but the last time the Tories were serious challengers in the constituency was in 1959, when Dempsey - who was seeking election for the first time following the retirement of Jean 'Haud the Wean' Mann - won with a majority of just 794 over the Unionist candidate. (EDIT: Ah, I see now. Swanarcadian's original wording made Coatbridge sound like a Conservative defence...) Good stuff spqr and I did in fact live through and note all those events. It was indeed a humorous spoof to Swan. Glad you liked it. I'm always up for a trip down memory lane (although, unlike you, I wasn't around at the time). |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 9, 2016 21:40:29 GMT
Good stuff spqr and I did in fact live through and note all those events. It was indeed a humorous spoof to Swan. Glad you liked it. I'm always up for a trip down memory lane (although, unlike you, I wasn't around at the time). But the good new for you is that you will be and I won't! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 9, 2016 21:54:32 GMT
I am thoroughly enjoying the work of spqr at the moment. |
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spqr
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Post by spqr on Dec 9, 2016 21:58:14 GMT
I am thoroughly enjoying the work of spqr at the moment. But not enough to vote for me as Best Newcomer though, eh, you bl@#~y... No, just kidding.  That's very kind of you to say so. Much appreciated. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 9, 2016 22:00:55 GMT
I am thoroughly enjoying the work of spqr at the moment. But not enough to vote for me as Best Newcomer though, eh, you bl@#~y... No, just kidding. That's very kind of you to say so. Much appreciated. You qualified far too early. Wrong Olympics old chap. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 9, 2016 22:04:52 GMT
It's been a weird parliament for byelections.
Firstly, eight in under 18 months seems a lot - but worth noting that only 3 were following deaths, and one of those - of course - under unusual circumstances.
Then there's the sequence - four Labour defences, then the special circumstances of Batley & Spen, then three Conservative defences - all following resignations!
And very different patterns. (I've excluded Batley & Spen from this analysis.)
Labour - up in 3 of the first 4 (a tiny fall in Ogmore); down in all of the last 3.
Conservatives down in all seven. (I've included the sort-of-independent Zak)
Lib Dems stationary in first 4, up in last 3 (hugely in Witney & Richmond).
UKIP - within 3 %points of 2015 except in Witney (down 5.7).
Green - marginally down in all 4 they contested.
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That's very kind of you to say so. Much appreciated.