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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 27, 2016 22:51:23 GMT
Conservative HOLD Darwell (Rother).
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 27, 2016 22:51:52 GMT
CON: 43.5% (+1.9)
LDEM: 31.4% (+14.8)
LAB: 9.6% (-0.6)
GRN: 8.4% (-6.6)
UKIP: 7.3% (-9.5)
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
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Post by maxque on Oct 27, 2016 22:55:27 GMT
CON: 43.5% (+1.9) LDEM: 31.4% (+14.8) LAB: 9.6% (-0.6) GRN: 8.4% (-6.6) UKIP: 7.3% (-9.5) In votes: Con 359 LD 259 Lab 79 Grn 69 UKIP 60 |
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 862
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Post by obsie on Oct 27, 2016 22:55:45 GMT
Con 359 43.5% UKIP 60 7.3% Lib Dem 259 31.4% Green 69 8.4% Lab 79 9.6% |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 27, 2016 22:55:53 GMT
CON: 43.5% (+1.9) LDEM: 31.4% (+14.8) LAB: 9.6% (-0.6) GRN: 8.4% (-6.6) UKIP: 7.3% (-9.5) Boo! That was our best chance of a District level win tonight. Have to settle for a decent swing, I suppose. Bad night for UKIP down in Bexhill, really. |
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Post by andrewteale on Oct 28, 2016 0:00:02 GMT
CON: 43.5% (+1.9) LDEM: 31.4% (+14.8) LAB: 9.6% (-0.6) GRN: 8.4% (-6.6) UKIP: 7.3% (-9.5) Boo! That was our best chance of a District level win tonight. Have to settle for a decent swing, I suppose. Bad night for UKIP down in Bexhill, really. Number Cruncher Politics on Twitter has misread my preview and thought Darwell was the ward with 45% over-64s. On the basis of that he's put a tweet out, hat-tipped me and my Twitter notifications are now full of very happy and rather poorly informed Lib Dems. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Oct 28, 2016 7:17:20 GMT
Rhyl West, Denbighshire
Lab 199 (48.0%; -2.3)
Con 93 (22.4%; +8.3)
Ind Shone 55 (13.3%; -3.3 on his score as PC in 2012)
Ind Webster 42 (10.1%)
LD 26 (6.3%)
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 28, 2016 8:18:49 GMT
Denbighshire, Rhyl West - Labour hold
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | since 2008 "top" | since 2008 "average" | | Labour | 199 | 48% | -2.4% | -2.0% | +12.4% | +13.7% | Conservative | 93 | 22.4% | +8.3% | +8.5% | -0.1% | -0.2% | Independent Shone * | 55 | 13.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Webster | 42 | 10.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -15.0% | -15.5% | Liberal Democrat | 26 | 6.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -10.5% | -11.1% | Previous Independents |
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| -18.9% | -19.2% |
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| Plaid Cymru |
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| -16.6% | -16.9% |
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| Total votes | 415 |
| 55% | 56% | 53% | 56% |
* Plaid Cymru candidate in 2012
Swing Labour to Conservative ~5¼% since 2012 but ~6½% Conservative to Labour since 2008 Council now 18 Labour, 13 Independent, 8 Plaid Cymru, 7 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat
Rother, Collington - Independent hold
Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2014 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Independent | 818 | 60.0% | +19.8% | +19.9% | +18.1% | +10.3% | +10.4% | Conservative | 393 | 28.8% | -1.0% | +0.0% | +1.0% | -10.7% | -10.5% | Labour | 87 | 6.4% | -2.2% | -2.5% | -1.1% | -4.5% | -4.7% | UKIP | 66 | 4.8% | -7.9% | -8.4% | -18.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green |
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| -8.7% | -9.0% |
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| Total votes | 1,364 |
| 42% | 43% | 100% | 62% | 64% |
Swing Conservative to Independent ~10% since 2015, 8½% since 2014 by-election and ~10½% since 2011
Council now 31 Conservative, 3 Liberal Democrat, 3 Association of Independents, 1 Independent
Rother, Darwell - Conservative hold
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2014 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 359 | 43.5% | +1.9% | +3.7% | +0.8% | -11.0% | -9.6% | Liberal Democrat | 259 | 31.4% | +14.8% | +14.3% | +23.7% | +14.4% | +14.3% | Labour | 79 | 9.6% | -0.6% | -0.9% | -0.4% | -1.1% | -1.5% | Green | 69 | 8.4% | -6.6% | -7.0% | -9.8% | -9.6% | -10.4% | UKIP | 60 | 7.3% | -9.5% | -10.1% | -14.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 826 |
| 24% | 25% | 98% | 39% | 40% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~6½% / 5¼% since 2015, 11% since 2014 by-election and 12¾% / 12% since 2011 Council now 31 Conservative, 3 Liberal Democrat, 3 Association of Independents, 1 Independent
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 28, 2016 10:08:36 GMT
Satisfactory result for Labour in Rhyl - their vote did not "slump" as a certain poster predicted.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 28, 2016 15:39:44 GMT
These results again provide more evidence of a good trend for Conservatives and LDs. After over 6-years of Conservative administrations one would most certainly expect better results from Labour, especially bearing in mind the quite recent coalition by LDs with the Conservatives. Labour should been expected to have made major inroads as the Centre/Centre Left standard-bearer with the 'taint' of government lingering over the LDs far longer. They should also be benefitting from stolid and central opposition to Brexit, and from the splurge of new members and new Leader with two large convincing personal polls of endorsement. There is so much scope for an Official Opposition under prevailing circumstances and yet they have been nearly totally squandered to leave a vacuum that even the Farron-led LDs have been able to exploit quite effectively; albeit from a low base and a lot of local losses in previous 5-years.
Usually there is a considerable fillip from a change of leadership but that has only really affected the Conservatives, despite very real doubts on the part of many commentators. Most thought May would have a difficult transition, pick a colourless team and be Cameron-continuation-tribute-band. But she has I think surprised most critics and even her own side with the smooth and accomplished transition from a very backgrounded long term Home Secretary. Farron has made virtually no mainline national profile at all. Corbyn seems to eschew the media as much as possible and has presented quite a low profile except to his own claque which is even more narrow than PLP/Membership. UKIP have done their very best to ruin their own image and cock up the leadership on 3-occasions so far.
The Conservatives are improving their poll share on many occasions and Labour losing share too often. It ought to be the other way round and with a greater margin as well. On this basis I just cannot see why the Conservatives are not planning to hold an early GE.
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Post by marksenior on Oct 28, 2016 16:05:08 GMT
These results again provide more evidence of a good trend for Conservatives and LDs. After over 6-years of Conservative administrations one would most certainly expect better results from Labour, especially bearing in mind the quite recent coalition by LDs with the Conservatives. Labour should been expected to have made major inroads as the Centre/Centre Left standard-bearer with the 'taint' of government lingering over the LDs far longer. They should also be benefitting from stolid and central opposition to Brexit, and from the splurge of new members and new Leader with two large convincing personal polls of endorsement. There is so much scope for an Official Opposition under prevailing circumstances and yet they have been nearly totally squandered to leave a vacuum that even the Farron-led LDs have been able to exploit quite effectively; albeit from a low base and a lot of local losses in previous 5-years. Usually there is a considerable fillip from a change of leadership but that has only really affected the Conservatives, despite very real doubts on the part of many commentators. Most thought May would have a difficult transition, pick a colourless team and be Cameron-continuation-tribute-band. But she has I think surprised most critics and even her own side with the smooth and accomplished transition from a very backgrounded long term Home Secretary. Farron has made virtually no mainline national profile at all. Corbyn seems to eschew the media as much as possible and has presented quite a low profile except to his own claque which is even more narrow than PLP/Membership. UKIP have done their very best to ruin their own image and cock up the leadership on 3-occasions so far. The Conservatives are improving their poll share on many occasions and Labour losing share too often. It ought to be the other way round and with a greater margin as well. On this basis I just cannot see why the Conservatives are not planning to hold an early GE. The Conservative vote share in all October by elections was 24.2% down 4.9% on last time fought hardly can be described as improving their vote share . Full figures for October Con 24.9% minus 4.2% Lab 28.4% plus 0.2% LDem 18.6% plus 8.3% UKIP 6.2% minus 4.0% Green 4.8% minus 1.6% Nats 7.1% plus 3.3% Others/Ind 10.6% minus 1.3% and for September Con 29.6% minus 2.7% Lab 26.7% minus 3.5% LDem 22.1% plus 12.0% UKIP 11.6% minus 2.4% Green 2.6% minus 2.3% Nats 3.5% plus 1.1% Others/Ind 3.9% minus 2.1% |
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Post by Penddu on Oct 29, 2016 3:08:00 GMT
Satisfactory result for Labour in Rhyl - their vote did not "slump" as a certain poster predicted. Ok...this certain poster underestimated Labour resilience here - i dont know local politics so well in north Wales...better in the south. Which brings me to next weeks contests.... Gibby in Barry has a similar vote share for Labour as in Rhyl, but with a more obvious alternative candidate...this time Conservative. I think Labour will hold this seat but will be pushed hard by Conservatives (I wont use the word slump..) But the more interesting seat is Grangetown....with two strong challengers. Plaid already have a strong second place here and have been growing support in recent years. The LDs are currently a distant third, but have previously held this seat and i expect them to recover a lot of their previous lost vote. I predict that Labour will lose this seat, and fall to third place behind both Plaid and LD. But I am not so certain who will win. It all depends on the extent of LD recovery. A modest recovery taking votes mainly from Labour should result in a Plaid gain. A more significant recovery could see LD leapfrogging into first place. |
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Post by tonygreaves on Oct 29, 2016 13:33:36 GMT
Some appalling ageism in this thread!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 29, 2016 14:56:41 GMT
Some appalling ageism in this thread! What are you talking about you senile old fossil? |
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Post by tonygreaves on Oct 30, 2016 17:28:46 GMT
 I wonder which of those words to object to? Fossil I think...
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 30, 2016 18:03:03 GMT
I hope you are not referring to me. I specifically rejected someone else's suggestion that septuagenarians are merely preparing to push up the daisies!  |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 30, 2016 18:10:46 GMT
I hope you are not referring to me. I specifically rejected someone else's suggestion that septuagenarians are merely preparing to push up the daisies! It cannot refer to me as I have more than 5 weeks to go before I am a septuagenarian. |
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I wonder which of those words to object to? Fossil I think...