By-elections - October 27th

[maxque]

Rhyl West - Denbighshire - Ian Armstrong (Labour) resigned. He was a councillor since 2008.

2012: Lab 378/361, Ind 142, PC 125, Con 106/99
2008: Lab 276/236, Ind 195/188, Con 175/163, LD 130
2004: Lab 404/339, Ind 277/252

Les Harker (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate)
Alan James (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru)
Keith Kirwan (Welsh Liberal Democrats)
Norman Shone (Independent)
Mark Webster (Independent)

Collington - Rother DC - Tony Mansi (Independent) resigned for health reasons. He was a councillor since 2011. He is a retired postmaster and the chairman of the Bexhill Festival of Music.

2015: Ind 1309/1220, Con 973/847, UKIP 417, Grn 282, Lab 280
June 2014 by: Ind 570, Con 378, UKIP 311, Lab 102
2011: Ind 1096/1034, Con 871/819, Lab 239
Jun 2008 by: Con 893, LD 216, Lab 78
2007: Con 1159/1158, LD 497
2003: Con 1071/974, LD 575

Andrew Burton (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Deirdre Earl-Williams (Independent)
Michael Phillips (UKIP)
Sara Watson (Labour Party Candidate)

Darwell - Rother DC - Emily Rowlinson (Conservative) resigned. She was a councillor since 2015.

2015: Con 1419/1213, UKIP 574, LD 564, Grn 510, Lab 347
July 2014 by: Con 361, UKIP 182, Grn 154, Lab 84, LD 65
2011: Con 1168/1016, Grn 386, LD 363/341, Lab 228
2007: Con 1072, Ind 685, LD 469
2003: Con 858, Ind 756, LD 476

John Barnes (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Antonia Berelson (Labour Party Candidate)
Edward Smith (Uk Independence Party)
Mary Varrall (Liberal Democrat)
Andrew Wedmore (The Green Party Candidate)

[John Chanin]

A remarkably low key week. It's ages since we had such a boring set of elections.

[bigfatron]

It's very hard to see where the traditional weekly Lib Dem gain is coming from...

[Penddu]

For Rhyl West I expect to see a slump in Labour vote, but I don't know if the Independent candidate has a high enough profile to overturn this. I don't think that Conservatives can do it or LD.

[maxque]

Oct 26, 2016 6:51:06 GMT Penddu said:

For Rhyl West I expect to see a slump in Labour vote, but I don't know if the Independent candidate has a high enough profile to overturn this. I don't think that Conservatives can do it or LD.

Shone was the PC candidate in 2012, Webster is a former Labour councillor for the ward, who lost as an Independent in 2008.

[tonygreaves]

We should come second in Darwell.

[greenchristian]

Oct 25, 2016 18:44:07 GMT bigfatron said:

It's very hard to see where the traditional weekly Lib Dem gain is coming from...

Some obscure parish council seat we've not noticed yet?

[marksenior]

Oct 26, 2016 21:08:23 GMT greenchristian said:

Oct 25, 2016 18:44:07 GMT bigfatron said:

It's very hard to see where the traditional weekly Lib Dem gain is coming from...

Some obscure parish council seat we've not noticed yet?

There are several town council elections this week likely to see Lib Dem gains - see the appropriate thread .

[Robert Waller]

Andrew Teale's preview
election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews-27-10-16

This does also confirm that the C candidate in Darwell is, as I suspected, the historian John Barnes (biographer of Baldwin, etc). He must be nearly 80 by now.

[Pete Whitehead]

Fwiw the UKIP candidate in Collington is one of the county councillors for Bexhill King Offa

[The Bishop]

Oct 27, 2016 0:37:21 GMT Robert Waller said:

Andrew Teale's preview
election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews-27-10-16

This does also confirm that the C candidate in Darwell is, as I suspected, the historian John Barnes (biographer of Baldwin, etc). He must be nearly 80 by now.

I don't suppose the occasional poster "lbarnes" on here is in any way related? Their politics appear not dissimilar if nothing else.....

[lbarnes]

Oct 27, 2016 9:23:06 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 27, 2016 0:37:21 GMT Robert Waller said:

Andrew Teale's preview
election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews-27-10-16

This does also confirm that the C candidate in Darwell is, as I suspected, the historian John Barnes (biographer of Baldwin, etc). He must be nearly 80 by now.

I don't suppose the occasional poster "lbarnes" on here is in any way related? Their politics appear not dissimilar if nothing else.....

Not knowingly.

[Deleted]

Oct 27, 2016 0:37:21 GMT Robert Waller said:

Andrew Teale's preview
election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews-27-10-16

This does also confirm that the C candidate in Darwell is, as I suspected, the historian John Barnes (biographer of Baldwin, etc). He must be nearly 80 by now.

High chance  of another by-election in that ward then I guess within a short period of time?

[Robert Waller]

That is not what I meant.

I actually played cricket with John for Patrick Mayhew's team (which I believe I have mentioned here before).

Aside from the therapeutic and preservative qualities of the king of games, I believe he is also currently a county councillor and clearly hale as well as hearty.

[Deleted]

Thanks for the clarification, good to hear all is well.

[Deleted]

I think there are currently no LDs on Denbighshire council if you check the council website. Perhaps a Tory hiding their true colours?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Oct 27, 2016 22:21:32 GMT @williamhone1780 said:

I think there are currently no LDs on Denbighshire council if you check the council website. Perhaps a Tory hiding their true colours?

There is one Liberal Democrat on Denbighshire council - Bobby Feeley (Ruthin). Because councillors can't be in a group of one, she is a member of the Independent group.

[Robert Waller]

Independent GAIN Collington (Rother) from Independent.
IND: 60.0% (+60.0)
CON: 28.8% (+7.1)
LAB: 6.4% (+0.1)
UKIP: 4.8% (-4.5)

Britain Elects' way of putting it, not mine.

[obsie]

Ind 818 60.0%
Con 393 28.8%
UKIP 66 4.8%
Lab 87 6.4%

[maxque]

Oct 27, 2016 22:41:36 GMT Robert Waller said:

Independent GAIN Collington (Rother) from Independent.
IND: 60.0% (+60.0)
CON: 28.8% (+7.1)
LAB: 6.4% (+0.1)
UKIP: 4.8% (-4.5)

Britain Elects' way of putting it, not mine.

Considering the new Independent was endorsed by the 2015 ones:

Ind +19.9
Con -1.0
Lab -2.2
UKIP -8.0