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Post by pembspolitic on Oct 14, 2016 23:24:54 GMT
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299 
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Post by maxque on Oct 14, 2016 23:28:40 GMT
Well, that won't happen, so tht thread is moot.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 14, 2016 23:29:34 GMT
Hahaha no he's not resigning.
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,532
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Oct 15, 2016 0:45:36 GMT
In an alternative universe, the by-election will be fun because it will be a three-way marginal between Plaid Cymru, Llais Gwynedd, and Dafydd Elis-Thomas on 26% each. The remaining 22% will be split between Conservative, Labour, UKIP and the Hippopotamus Revolutionary Party, on about 5% each.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 15, 2016 9:54:08 GMT
All that has happened so far is that Lord Elis Tomos has resigned from Plaid and will continue to sit as an Independent and Plaid can huff and puff all they want for a by-election, but they are not going to get one). What is more likely is that he will join Llais Gwynedd ahead of the locals next year and stand against the Plaid Cymru group leader (just as they did in 2008 which saw the defeat of Dafydd Iwan when he was leader / president)
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Post by pembspolitic on Oct 15, 2016 15:02:07 GMT
I may have gotten too excited at the prospect of an interesting Assembly by-election. For what it's worth, i strongly believe he would've lost (quite easily).
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Oct 15, 2016 15:12:45 GMT
Just how great is Dafydd Elis-Thomas' personal vote anyway? (Assuming he has one)
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Post by greenhert on Oct 15, 2016 15:47:26 GMT
Lord Twaddleford, reasonably good, although Plaid can retain this seat with any half-decent candidate simply due to Dwyfor Meirionydd's high Welsh-speaking population.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 15, 2016 17:26:46 GMT
Lord Twaddleford, reasonably good, although Plaid can retain this seat with any half-decent candidate simply due to Dwyfor Meirionydd's high Welsh-speaking population. Dwyfor Plaid Vote 2007 - 2015 Assembly 2007: 60% Parliament 2010: 44% Assembly 2011: 47% Parliament 2015: 41% Assembly 2016: 47% Suggesting that Lord Elis Tomos has a 4.5% personal vote bonus on Plaid's national performance |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 15, 2016 17:31:06 GMT
But that's not how it works; most people just vote the same way on the list as the constituency so personal votes spill over. Edit: oh you weren't even comparing... lawd.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 15, 2016 17:32:17 GMT
Just how great is Dafydd Elis-Thomas' personal vote anyway? (Assuming he has one) Considerable in Meirionnydd, negligible on the Llŷn. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Oct 15, 2016 18:35:45 GMT
All that has happened so far is that Lord Elis Tomos has resigned from Plaid and will continue to sit as an Independent and Plaid can huff and puff all they want for a by-election, but they are not going to get one). What is more likely is that he will join Llais Gwynedd ahead of the locals next year and stand against the Plaid Cymru group leader (just as they did in 2008 which saw the defeat of Dafydd Iwan when he was leader / president) Meanwhile, back on Earth... |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 16, 2016 10:21:02 GMT
There are in any case two sorts of personal votes. The first is the personal vote that ensures support for a candidate even though they wouldn't usually vote for their party; the second is the personal vote that ensures support for a candidate even though ordinarily they'll vote for any candidate of their chosen party. The first is helpful in marginal seats, but it's the second that's relevant when it comes to deselections and defections. And whilst there's some correlation between the two, they're not necessarily directly linked.
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