Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 12, 2016 11:43:07 GMT
If you are so monumentally stupid as to believe the crap you just posted I suppose it doesn't make any difference all. So no answer then, just catty remarks. Makes a nice change. If you ask a reasonable question and I might offer a serious reply but if you start off with nonsensical bullshit about "politicians who advocate shipping people's jobs overseas" I really can't be bothered. If you think something as complex as globalisation and how the western world responds to its numerous effects can be boiled down to such simplistic soundbites you are clearly too thick to waste any time debating with. |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 13, 2016 1:23:12 GMT
New article at 538Non-college-educated whites are moving toward Donald Trump. Non-whites and college-educated whites are swinging Hillary Clinton. We built a county-by-county model to show where shifts in these groups could make the biggest difference 
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 14, 2016 1:21:21 GMT
Map of advantage for Clinton vs Trump  |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 28, 2016 5:37:35 GMT
Agreed, in 20 years time we will probably be talking about the tightness of the race in SC and GA and how NC would be, electorally speaking, basically in the North East and we would be talking about the Southern Eastern Seaboard (NC,SC,GA,FL) as totally seperate from the South So basically in 20 years time The South East (NC,SC,GA,FL) will be Blue and the Mid West (IA,MN,WI,MI,IN,OH(excluding IL(for now))) will be red and the key swing states will probably be AZ,PA,SC,GA and IL will be on the path PA is just starting on and TX will be on the path NV is nearing the end of. While such a scenario isn't impossible, the path to 270 will become incredibly tight for the GOP, one would imagine the party will finally reform to become more appealing to minorities to stop such states from swinging, Eg. the trend in Georgia could be slowed down by cutting the margins in Henry and Rockdale counties etc (affluent black Atlanta suburbia). Reapportionment would be killer for Republicans in such a scenario, here's estimates of changes in 2020: Safe Republican states EC changes in this scenario: Alabama: -1
Michigan: -1
Minnesota: -1
West Virginia: -1
Ohio: -1Lean Republican states EC changes: Texas: +3Swings states EC changes: Arizona: +1
Florida: +1Pennsylvania: -1Lean Democratic state EC changes: Illinois: -1Safe Democratic states EC changes: California: +1
Colorado: +1New York: -1North Carolina: +1
Oregon: +1Rhode Island: -1Virginia is just short of gaining an extra district, so an uptick in population growth would have it +1, probably at the expense of a 3 rd Texas gain. A map of trends in House seats, states in red have lost house seats while states in blue have gained house seats  |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 28, 2016 7:09:27 GMT
Which suggests that the Democrats have a in-built advantage that will continue to expand exponentially
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 30, 2016 22:59:56 GMT
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 1, 2016 0:30:23 GMT
Which suggests that the Democrats have a in-built advantage that will continue to expand exponentially I think you misunderstand the word exponentially. It doesn't just mean "increases really fast". Exponential expansion is basically multiplying over and over again. Given the finite population of the US, exponential increases in Democrat advantage would mean they get to 100% of votes/seats within the next few years. |
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