Witney

[Admin Twaddleford]

Sept 20, 2016 22:23:10 GMT Sibboleth said:

Liberal gain, calling it now. Has all the ingredients (inc. reviled incumbent buggering off to make money and not even bothering to disguise that fact).

As you've written that, I've added a poll.

[johnloony]

I predict Lib Dem 2nd, UKIP 3rd, Labour 4th.

[Deleted]

Conservative hold, with bells on.

[boogieeck]

A more interesting poll for this week IMHO would be who do we expect the Conservatives to select. I have seen the names of Hannan and McVey touted by supporters.

[Khunanup]

What was the West Oxon ref result?

[krollo]

Sept 21, 2016 7:39:57 GMT Khunanup said:

What was the West Oxon ref result?

54% remain.

[A Brown]

Sept 21, 2016 7:39:57 GMT Khunanup said:

What was the West Oxon ref result?

Remain 53.7

[Deleted]

Sept 21, 2016 0:51:15 GMT johnloony said:

I predict Lib Dem 2nd, UKIP 3rd, Labour 4th.

Agreed

[Pete Whitehead]

I can imagine a Bromley & Chislehurst style result here

[boogieeck]

Sept 21, 2016 8:06:32 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I can imagine a Bromley & Chislehurst style result here

With John Cartwright being decisive once more?

[The Bishop]

Sept 20, 2016 22:23:10 GMT Sibboleth said:

Liberal gain, calling it now. Has all the ingredients (inc. reviled incumbent buggering off to make money and not even bothering to disguise that fact).

Is he actually "reviled" locally, though?

[Sibboleth]

Well probably not, but I doubt his recent antics have impressed anyone.

[The Bishop]

Yeah I expect the LibDems in particular already have their campaign literature ready with regard to that.

[Sibboleth]

They really do write themselves: "WHY SHOULD I DO THE HARD SHIT?"

[gwynthegriff]

Local people tell us they feel betrayed!


Can we ever trust a Tory again?


What he said
And what he did!

[johnloony]

The last time the Lib Dems were in the deep doldrums, after the merger and during the time of the SDP splitters an the Green surge in 1989, one of the first signs of the Lib Dem recovery was the Eastbourne by-election. They won it because of local factors, despite the Lib Dems still being low in the opinion polls at the national level. Lib Dems have historically been in a good 2nd place in Witney for most of the last 30 years, so should be well placed to harvest the generic protest vote.

It doesn't mean the Lib Dems will win, but it could be close.

[strinity]

Sept 21, 2016 9:57:43 GMT The Bishop said:

Yeah I expect the LibDems in particular already have their campaign literature ready with regard to that.

I wonder though if they might do the opposite - present themselves as moderate liberal conservatives in the Cameron mould, and play on the bad feeling of voters that their local MP PM was dispatched early, effectively by his own side. It helps in this respect that the seat voted remain (albeit narrowly).

[johnloony]

Sept 21, 2016 13:50:24 GMT strinity said:

Sept 21, 2016 9:57:43 GMT The Bishop said:

Yeah I expect the LibDems in particular already have their campaign literature ready with regard to that.

I wonder though if they might do the opposite - present themselves as moderate liberal conservatives in the Cameron mould, and play on the bad feeling of voters that their local MP PM was dispatched early, effectively by his own side. It helps in this respect that the seat voted remain (albeit narrowly).

They wouldn't get the substantial Labour vote if they did that.

[Jack]

Sept 21, 2016 14:00:14 GMT johnloony said:

Sept 21, 2016 13:50:24 GMT strinity said:

I wonder though if they might do the opposite - present themselves as moderate liberal conservatives in the Cameron mould, and play on the bad feeling of voters that their local MP PM was dispatched early, effectively by his own side. It helps in this respect that the seat voted remain (albeit narrowly).

They wouldn't get the substantial Labour vote if they did that.

The age-old Lib Dem problem.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Twitter reports that the ludicrous Wessex Regionalists will stand again. Whether perennial poll-botherer Colin Bex will be the candidate is unconfirmed.