Witney

[Deleted]

Sept 21, 2016 0:51:15 GMT johnloony said:

I predict Lib Dem 2nd, UKIP 3rd, Labour 4th.

Agreed

[Pete Whitehead]

I can imagine a Bromley & Chislehurst style result here

[The Bishop]

Sept 20, 2016 22:23:10 GMT Sibboleth said:

Liberal gain, calling it now. Has all the ingredients (inc. reviled incumbent buggering off to make money and not even bothering to disguise that fact).

Is he actually "reviled" locally, though?

[Sibboleth]

Well probably not, but I doubt his recent antics have impressed anyone.

[The Bishop]

Yeah I expect the LibDems in particular already have their campaign literature ready with regard to that.

[Sibboleth]

They really do write themselves: "WHY SHOULD I DO THE HARD SHIT?"

[gwynthegriff]

Local people tell us they feel betrayed!


Can we ever trust a Tory again?


What he said
And what he did!

[johnloony]

The last time the Lib Dems were in the deep doldrums, after the merger and during the time of the SDP splitters an the Green surge in 1989, one of the first signs of the Lib Dem recovery was the Eastbourne by-election. They won it because of local factors, despite the Lib Dems still being low in the opinion polls at the national level. Lib Dems have historically been in a good 2nd place in Witney for most of the last 30 years, so should be well placed to harvest the generic protest vote.

It doesn't mean the Lib Dems will win, but it could be close.

[Deleted]

Sept 21, 2016 9:57:43 GMT The Bishop said:

Yeah I expect the LibDems in particular already have their campaign literature ready with regard to that.

I wonder though if they might do the opposite - present themselves as moderate liberal conservatives in the Cameron mould, and play on the bad feeling of voters that their local MP PM was dispatched early, effectively by his own side. It helps in this respect that the seat voted remain (albeit narrowly).

[johnloony]

Sept 21, 2016 13:50:24 GMT @strinity said:

Sept 21, 2016 9:57:43 GMT The Bishop said:

Yeah I expect the LibDems in particular already have their campaign literature ready with regard to that.

I wonder though if they might do the opposite - present themselves as moderate liberal conservatives in the Cameron mould, and play on the bad feeling of voters that their local MP PM was dispatched early, effectively by his own side. It helps in this respect that the seat voted remain (albeit narrowly).

They wouldn't get the substantial Labour vote if they did that.

[Jack]

Sept 21, 2016 14:00:14 GMT johnloony said:

Sept 21, 2016 13:50:24 GMT @strinity said:

I wonder though if they might do the opposite - present themselves as moderate liberal conservatives in the Cameron mould, and play on the bad feeling of voters that their local MP PM was dispatched early, effectively by his own side. It helps in this respect that the seat voted remain (albeit narrowly).

They wouldn't get the substantial Labour vote if they did that.

The age-old Lib Dem problem.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Twitter reports that the ludicrous Wessex Regionalists will stand again. Whether perennial poll-botherer Colin Bex will be the candidate is unconfirmed.

[Deleted]

Sept 21, 2016 7:43:32 GMT A Brown said:

Sept 21, 2016 7:39:57 GMT Khunanup said:

What was the West Oxon ref result?

Remain 53.7

Makes this very promising or the LibDems.

[AdminSTB]

The Lib Dems would need a 26.7% swing to gain this seat. In Newbury back in 1993 they achieved 28.4%, and that was from a relatively strong second place. The political climate is not the same as it was in 1993, when the Conservative government was in its fourth consecutive term of office and were well behind in the polls.
Therefore, although the Lib Dems seem well placed to turn in a decent performance, I think it's fanciful to suggest they will actually win.

[greenhert]

Sept 21, 2016 14:46:11 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Twitter reports that the ludicrous Wessex Regionalists will stand again. Whether perennial poll-botherer Colin Bex will be the candidate is unconfirmed.

Could you show me the link to such a Twitter post in order to verify this information?

I must also say that according to my research there are only about 10 Wessex Regionalist members at most.

[Adam in Stroud]

On the Wessex Regionalists, Bex did stand last time (and almost doubled their vote share!) so if they don't bother it might be all over for them, which'd be a shame of us anoraks.

If the LDs were to win this it'd be astonishing, and for that reason the pressure is off a bit.  This is like a lower league side drawing Man Utd in the FA Cup - a win would be a giant-killing we could live off for a year, even a plucky defeat would generate some handy headlines.  And if we get hammered, so what?

Plus points - and I'm trying not to be a mindlessly optimistic LD supporter here, but objective things include:-
1. Manner of Cameron's leaving can be depicted negatively (have to say, I don't think the worse of him for it myself, I think he'd have been a pain fro the govt.)
2. We've gone for an experienced local candidate; presumably a high profile (therefore non-local) Tory will be selected, as it's such a safe seat it is an opportunity to get a high-flier safely into Parliament without risking an Ed balls moment. That's a useful contrast for us if it comes about - vote LD for an MP who cares about local issues, not another professional politico heading for the cabinet and bound to b*gger off as soon as they start sliding down the greasy pole.
3. There's an issue with local NHS services closing, which is never a good story for the Tories, and plays well to current LD policy moves including possible hypothecated tax for NHS. Local party has already been leafleting on the NHS before selecting the candidate
4. Local vote for Remain.  Especially handy if the Tories pick Hannan.
5. Labour vote can be squeezed on "wasted vote" basis due to current civil war.  (In other circs, it could easily be the other way round, but not right now, I think.)
6. Wild card: noises from Diane James standing for UKIP.  If some Remainers are tempted to vote LD while some Leavers go UKIP that would be an irritation to a mainstream eurosceptic Tory.

Minus points: 
1. Theresa May
2. Relatively good economic news post-Brexit
2. Come on, its bloody Witney

[Devil Wincarnate]

Sept 21, 2016 17:20:06 GMT greenhert said:

Sept 21, 2016 14:46:11 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Twitter reports that the ludicrous Wessex Regionalists will stand again. Whether perennial poll-botherer Colin Bex will be the candidate is unconfirmed.

Could you show me the link to such a Twitter post in order to verify this information?

I must also say that according to my research there are only about 10 Wessex Regionalist members at most.

Struggling to link at the moment but top two tweets on their Twitter account infer it. Sorry I can't be of more immediate help.

[Merseymike]

Be interesting to see who the Tories do pick.
Douglas Hurd, Shaun Woodward and David Cameron suggest a moderate local party

[La Fontaine]

Sept 20, 2016 19:33:33 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Labour candidate is, as expected, Duncan Enright.

Never met him, though I knew his late father, David. He was MEP for Leeds, but got deselected by Michael McGowan.

[Lord Twaddleford]

Ok, who predicted a Green gain?