Witney

[Lord Twaddleford]

Oct 18, 2016 21:06:53 GMT johnhemming said:

Delivering a few leaflets in Witney we did find someone who claimed to be a Labour voter who supported Corbyn because he would "nuke the immigrants".

I doubt even the diehard fringes of UKIP would ever go that far.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Oct 17, 2016 7:32:13 GMT marksenior said:

Reports from various sources ( not all Lib Dem ) say postal vote returns so far have been very low which would indicate a lower overall turnout than forecast by Andy . Lib Dem campaign this weekend focused on the Labour areas of Witney itself which is now apparently a sea of orange posters and stakeboards . My own forecast is now a Labour vote share below 10% and a Lib Dem share just above 30% .

I don't have any reason to believe we'd do well, but that doesn't seem to me like a reason to expect a particularly strong Lib Dem performance. If that was the case, there'd be much more effort being put in better areas for the Conservatives.

[finsobruce]

Oct 18, 2016 20:52:23 GMT greenhert said:

Oct 18, 2016 10:56:32 GMT andrew111 said:

These pacts rarely work... Look up Colne valley in 1951 and 1955... Liberals and then Tories took turns to unseat Labour in a Churchill-engineered pact... But eventually Richard Wainwright won despite the Tories standing..

In Witney Corbynite Labour would have no chance anyway and being endorsed by Labour would not help the Lib Dems capture Tory votes, so it is just a Guardianista pipe dream!

On the other hand, the Liberals and Conservatives worked together successfully for a time in Bolton and Huddersfield to keep Labour out of either of the constituencies in those places until the pact broke down shortly before the 1964 general election.

Not quite - Labour won Huddersfield East throughout the period.

[greenhert]

Correct-and its successor, Huddersfield, is still firmly held by Labour today. Not for want of trying, though-and the pact did work for Huddersfield West.

[greenhert]

My thoughts on this by-election: greensocialistalan.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/my-questions-about-witney-by-election.html

[johnloony]

I predict (%)

Con 43.4 (-16.8)
LD 27.2 (+20.4)
Lab 14.6 (-2.6)
UKIP 6.8 (-2.4)
Grn 2.9 (-2.2)
NHA 1.8 (+0.7)
Others 3.3 (+2.8)

Turnout 52%

[Robert Waller]

Andrew Teale's preview
election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews-20-10-16-parliamentary-special

[Adam in Stroud]

Oct 20, 2016 19:27:37 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

I have to laugh at the poll at the top....Five people think it will be a Labour gain.

I offer a 1000/1 to anyone who wants to bet that the Conservatives don't win

I'd take you on at a quid, on the basis of never betting any amount that you would care about losing. 

[Andrew_S]

I spent a few hours in the town of Witney this afternoon. Saw Larry Sanders riding around the town in a rickshaw, waving at people. That was about the height of the excitement.

[Deleted]

Prediction

Con 50.4 (-9.8)
LD 24.8 (+18)
Lab 12.8 (-4.4)
UKIP 5.1 (-4.1)
Green 2.4 (-2.7)
Others 4.5 (+3)

[AdminSTB]

Oct 20, 2016 19:27:37 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

I have to laugh at the poll at the top....Five people think it will be a Labour gain.

I offer a 1000/1 to anyone who wants to bet that the Conservatives don't win

Five people think Bernie Sanders' brother will pull it off for the Greens...

It all started upthread when Sibboleth suddenly predicted a Liberal gain. Prior to that I had thought a Conservative hold was so certain in everyone's minds - despite the circumstances of this by-election - that it would be more interesting to put a poll up asking who would be most likely to come second. Then, a general consensus seemed to emerge that the Lib Dems were going to get a big increase in their share of the vote and that they were bound to come second.

A Lib Dem gain would cause me a great deal of befuddlement, given the present overall political climate. If the Tories were as far behind at this point as they were in October 1990, for instance - as opposed to getting the kind of leads they were getting in the run up to the 1983 election - I would have been a great deal more worried about their prospects.

[Adam in Stroud]

Oct 20, 2016 19:32:11 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

Oct 20, 2016 19:30:56 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

I'd take you on at a quid, on the basis of never betting any amount that you would care about losing. 

Minimum Fiver

Dammit a fiver, that's a pint!  I'm not sure I can afford to do without one of those...

OK, anything for a laugh, you're on.  If we get a decent second I'll be happy enough to pay up.

If we get 6.8% of the vote again I'm going to be pissed off.

[Deleted]

Oct 20, 2016 20:16:07 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Oct 20, 2016 19:32:11 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

Minimum Fiver

Dammit a fiver, that's a pint!  I'm not sure I can afford to do without one of those...

OK, anything for a laugh, you're on.  If we get a decent second I'll be happy enough to pay up.

If we get 6.8% of the vote again I'm going to be pissed off.

A fiver.....come North, young man.

[Adam in Stroud]

Yeah, but I'd have to drink northern beer.

(Tin hat)

[mick745]

Turnout will be 39.6%.

[Izzyeviel]

What time do you reckon the result will be? Shall I stay up?

[Andrew_S]

Prediction:

Con 51.3 (-8.9)
LD 27.6 (+20.9)
Lab 10.2 (-7.0)
Green 4.9 (-0.2)
UKIP 4.5 (-4.7)
Others 1.6 (-0.1)

Turnout 55.1 (-18.2)

[marksenior]

Oct 20, 2016 19:27:37 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

I have to laugh at the poll at the top....Five people think it will be a Labour gain.

I offer a 1000/1 to anyone who wants to bet that the Conservatives don't win

I would take that bet . I can lay it off immediately on Betfair for a decent profit

[Arthur Figgis]

Oct 20, 2016 20:21:09 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Yeah, but I'd have to drink northern beer.

(Tin hat)

Of course it's cheaper- you only get half a pint of it under all that head!

[Adrian]

My prediction is Con 16,000 LD 10,000