Witney

[Pete Whitehead]

www.ukip.org/ukip_select_oxfordshire_man_dickie_bird_as_witney_candidate

[greenhert]

The top three things in this by-election according to my search of live tweets for the #WitneyByElection appear to be:

1. Promotion of Liz Leffman's campaign and how the Liberal Democrats have been bothering to leaflet when Labour has not by various Twitter users.
2. A Mr David Welsh reiterating about how important the Brexit issue will be in this by-election, and others Tweeting the fact Witney overall voted to remain will have an impact.
3. Independent Daniel Skidmore's campaign-and how little impact it is actually having (hardly anyone is favouriting or retweeting his Tweets).

[greenchristian]

Oct 4, 2016 13:08:01 GMT greenhert said:

The top three things in this by-election according to my search of live tweets for the #WitneyByElection appear to be:

1. Promotion of Liz Leffman's campaign and how the Liberal Democrats have been bothering to leaflet when Labour has not by various Twitter users.
2. A Mr David Welsh reiterating about how important the Brexit issue will be in this by-election, and others Tweeting the fact Witney overall voted to remain will have an impact.
3. Independent Daniel Skidmore's campaign-and how little impact it is actually having (hardly anyone is favouriting or retweeting his Tweets).

If his campaign consists entirely of tweeting, then it's no wonder that he's having no impact.

[markf]

Sept 12, 2016 20:39:56 GMT Andrew_S said:

Sept 12, 2016 20:25:53 GMT AdminSTB said:

I agree entirely.

In spite of what the opinion polls are telling us, I would expect the Conservative share of the vote to take a rather bigger knock than might otherwise be expected, simply because the party will be deprived of the "leader's bonus" (the Lab to Con swing was 9.4% in 2010). What isn't certain is who will benefit the most. Second placed Labour already had a bit of a boost last year thanks to the Lib Dem slump. UKIP, the Lib Dems (who came 2nd in 2010 and 4th in 2015) and the Greens all saved their deposits last year - which of them, if any, could be best placed to benefit from Labour's present predicament?

I agree.

Early prediction:

Con 50% (-10)
UKIP 16% (+7)
Lab 15% (-2)
Green 10% (+5)
LD 8% (+1)
Others 1% (-1)

[markf]

Because Ukip are now running the Tory party ,
my prediction
Con 62%
Lab 15%
Ukip 7%
Ldp 7%.

Green 7%

I may have overestimated the Labour vote.

 Has anyone noticed there has only been 1 bye-election

in a Tory marginal since 2010,

sorry ive just seen my put my post in the wrong place

[marksenior]

It is pretty clear from anyone who has spent some time in Witney that the Lib Dems will be a decent 2nd . The bookies know it too .
A week ago Ladbrokes had Lib Dems at 9/10 to be 2nd . Todays price is 2/5 . Betfairs winner without the Conservatives market has Lib Dems at 1/3 .
My latest forecast for the result is

Con 45
LD 28
Lab 12
UKIP 5
Green 5
All Others 5

[Andrew_S]

Oct 4, 2016 21:23:07 GMT marksenior said:

It is pretty clear from anyone who has spent some time in Witney that the Lib Dems will be a decent 2nd . The bookies know it too .
A week ago Ladbrokes had Lib Dems at 9/10 to be 2nd . Todays price is 2/5 . Betfairs winner without the Conservatives market has Lib Dems at 1/3 .
My latest forecast for the result is

Con 45
LD 28
Lab 12
UKIP 5
Green 5
All Others 5

What's your estimate for turnout?

[marksenior]

Oct 4, 2016 22:54:43 GMT Andrew_S said:

Oct 4, 2016 21:23:07 GMT marksenior said:

It is pretty clear from anyone who has spent some time in Witney that the Lib Dems will be a decent 2nd . The bookies know it too .
A week ago Ladbrokes had Lib Dems at 9/10 to be 2nd . Todays price is 2/5 . Betfairs winner without the Conservatives market has Lib Dems at 1/3 .
My latest forecast for the result is

Con 45
LD 28
Lab 12
UKIP 5
Green 5
All Others 5

What's your estimate for turnout?

around 48%

[markf]

I just think the UKIP vote will start to go down over a longer term & it will go the Conservatives

[marksenior]

Oct 5, 2016 15:35:27 GMT markf said:

I just think the UKIP vote will start to go down over a longer term & it will go the Conservatives

It will go back whence it came which is mostly not the Conservatives

[markf]

not sure, a lot of the Thatcherite wing  Conservative voters became Ukippers

[marksenior]

Oct 5, 2016 16:02:30 GMT markf said:

not sure, a lot of the Thatcherite wing  Conservative voters became Ukippers

and many of them moved back to the Conservatives at GE 2015

[Deleted]

Think Marks on the money here.

[markf]

Joe , I hope I,m wrong lol

[markf]

At the GE2015 , Cameron got back a fair percentage
of Tory wet voters who voted Libdem over the last 20years, somehow convincing
them he was a centrist

[Robert Waller]

When the Liberal Democrats were doing well (c 20%) I wouldn't describe their voters as overwhelmingly 'centrist'.
They were saying, "neither of the above" (that is, the two governing parties). When the LDs became a governing party, that type of vote predominantly went to ... UKIP.

When I was a pollster, some of the crossbreaks would have alarmed Lib Dem (and L-SDP Alliance) apparatchiks, if they hadn't just been pleased to have the numbers. I recall - highest percentage in favour of capital punishment, and highest percentage against the EEC/EC/EU, for example.

[Andrew_S]

Oct 5, 2016 22:23:55 GMT Robert Waller said:

When the Liberal Democrats were doing well (c 20%) I wouldn't describe their voters as overwhelmingly 'centrist'.
They were saying, "neither of the above" (that is, the two governing parties). When the LDs became a governing party, that type of vote predominantly went to ... UKIP.

When I was a pollster, some of the crossbreaks would have alarmed Lib Dem (and L-SDP Alliance) apparatchiks, if they hadn't just been pleased to have the numbers. I recall - highest percentage in favour of capital punishment, and highest percentage against the EEC/EC/EU, for example.

I think the LDs used to pick up a lot of working-class votes in the south west for example, and those voters would have been considerably more in favour of capital punishment since the middle-classes tend to be against it.

[tonygreaves]

Look at the Council by-elections for some underlying trends at the moment (as ever). Possibly ephemeral, possibly not so ephemeral (as ever). One clear trend is that the UKIP vote is shrinking and that it is tending to go to where it came from (different in different places). Including in some places to the LDs. Voting is more complex than a lot of people assume (though not amongst the experts here of course!)

I can't think that events yesterday and today will encourage a UKIP surge at Witney.


Tony

[carlton43]

Sept 17, 2016 12:13:07 GMT mick745 said:

I think it would take a strange set of circumstances for Conservatives to lose this one, I don't feel a huge disgruntment amongst people with the government and its new leader, I think most people I speak to wish May well and the honeymoon period hasn't quite worn off. Equally I don't sense a huge wave of support for the opposition parties. Do the people of Witney think Corbyn is the answer? As someone previously said it would have been a doddle for Lab or LD in the 90s but the two circumstances were true then. It may not be a particularly interesting result. The government only have a majority of 12 so Cameron can't be too concerned that the seat will be lost.

It would not have been a doddle for either Labour or LD in the 90s. The fact that there are two parties with a shout would have saved it with a useful majority. And because it is a stable and conservative area like a Newark or Gainsborough.

[carlton43]

Sept 17, 2016 14:04:42 GMT Sibboleth said:

I suppose an absurd Liberal Upset isn't entirely out of the question given everything. They've managed them in the past when their poll ratings were in the toilet.

Yes it is out of the question.