Post by middleenglander on Aug 24, 2016 17:56:57 GMT
There have been 72 by-elections for 73 seats in the 15 week period since the 2016 elections on 5 May, with 26 (36%) changing hands irrespective of the result in Fife, The Lochs where there is no Independent defending the seat.
The geographic distribution of the by-election seats can be summarised by:
- 61 in England with 21 (34%) changing hands
- 8 in Wales with 2 (25%) changing hands and
- 4 in Scotland with 3 (75%) changing hands.
An analysis of the seats contested / changing hands in England is given by:
* "split" ward prior to by-election
Thus since the annual elections in May the defending party has lost 9 out of 12 English by-elections in small (less than 2,000 electors) and relatively small (2,000 to 3,999 electors) single member wards / divisions. There were two seats changing hands in Wales (Independent gain from Conservative and No Description gain from Independent) both where the electorate was less than 2,000.
Of the remaining 12 seats changing hands, 10 were in "split" wards prior to the by-election. The other 2 seats were the perpetual marginal of Dorset, Sherborne Rural together with the 2 member Kent, Gravesham East gained by the Conservatives last week which was previously Labour in 2005 and 2013 and Conservative 2009.
Whilst there are no statistics about previous years, I have commented before about the prevalence of smallish single member wards / divisions to change hands at by-elections in the circumstances of very long standing Councillors resigning / dying, Councillors resigning a relatively short time after election and those resigning "under a cloud". The respective quality of new candidates is obviously a factor, either positive or negative.
The geographic distribution of the by-election seats can be summarised by:
- 61 in England with 21 (34%) changing hands
- 8 in Wales with 2 (25%) changing hands and
- 4 in Scotland with 3 (75%) changing hands.
An analysis of the seats contested / changing hands in England is given by:
| Electorate | Total seats in ward / division | Seats contested | Changed hands | Proportion | Notes: |
| Up to 1,999 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 50% | Con gain from Ind, LD from Con, Green from Con |
2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | Con gain from Ind *, LD from Con * | |
| 2,000 to 3,999 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 100% | Con gain from Lab, LD gain from Con (2), UKIP and Ind (2) |
2 | 8 | 3 | 28% | Lab gain from UKIP *, Farnham Residents from Con (2) * | |
| 4,000 to 5,999 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 14% | UKIP gain from Lab * |
3 | 5 | 2 | 40% | Lab gain from UKIP *, LD from Con * | |
| 6,000 to 7,999 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 33% | LD gain from Con where highest majority in 4 elections since 2005 has been 5.2% |
3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | LD gain from Lab * | |
| 8,000 to 9,999 | 1 | 2 | |||
3 | 8 | ||||
| 10,000 to 11,999 | 1 | 2 | |||
3 | 6 | ||||
| 12,000 plus | 1 | 2 | 2 | 100% | Con gain from Lab, UKIP gain from Lab * |
3 | 1 | ||||
Total | 61 | 21 | 34% |
* "split" ward prior to by-election
Thus since the annual elections in May the defending party has lost 9 out of 12 English by-elections in small (less than 2,000 electors) and relatively small (2,000 to 3,999 electors) single member wards / divisions. There were two seats changing hands in Wales (Independent gain from Conservative and No Description gain from Independent) both where the electorate was less than 2,000.
Of the remaining 12 seats changing hands, 10 were in "split" wards prior to the by-election. The other 2 seats were the perpetual marginal of Dorset, Sherborne Rural together with the 2 member Kent, Gravesham East gained by the Conservatives last week which was previously Labour in 2005 and 2013 and Conservative 2009.
Whilst there are no statistics about previous years, I have commented before about the prevalence of smallish single member wards / divisions to change hands at by-elections in the circumstances of very long standing Councillors resigning / dying, Councillors resigning a relatively short time after election and those resigning "under a cloud". The respective quality of new candidates is obviously a factor, either positive or negative.