Ask the Forum thread- psephology

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

May 10, 2024 12:50:54 GMT yellowperil said:

May 10, 2024 11:17:59 GMT The Bishop said:

At least it is good to see that yellowperil is still lurking on here, as they promised

"they"?

Yes, I'm still lurking- trying hard to resist the temptation to post. Even when I see things that want me to scream

I just assumed that they was used as Eileen is seen as an honourary member of this forum.

[carolus]

Are there any examples of councils where a party with a majority has for some reason not run the council? Perhaps because of infighting or some other reason.

[uthacalthing]

Or where Independents are a majority and they cannot agree an administration but acceded to one offered by a party

[uthacalthing]

I had a sort of similar question relating to elected Mayors and PCCs.

Given that part of the supposed logic was that these posts might attract capable individuals from beyond party politics, and taking into account the somewhat self-serving eulogies offered to Andy Street by political opponents as part of their justified attack on Sunak, have we seen any evidence of a political party choosing not to put up a candidate and instead endorsing the candidate of another party or an Independent?

I quite fancy being in a party that does not select candidates but instead critiques those who do and offers a recommendation

[rogerg]

May 14, 2024 13:37:19 GMT carolus said:

Are there any examples of councils where a party with a majority has for some reason not run the council? Perhaps because of infighting or some other reason.

I think first term at least of the Lib Dem mayor in Bedford he appointed a multi-party cabinet which he did not absolutely have to do. Even then it was good political sense as the Lib Dem group was pretty small - not sure Lib Dems even had a third of the council to get a budget through etc. I'm sure other executive mayors will have done something similar. That's probably as close as you'll get to this.

[carolus]

May 14, 2024 21:11:56 GMT rogerg said:

May 14, 2024 13:37:19 GMT carolus said:

Are there any examples of councils where a party with a majority has for some reason not run the council? Perhaps because of infighting or some other reason.

I think first term at least of the Lib Dem mayor in Bedford he appointed a multi-party cabinet which he did not absolutely have to do. Even then it was good political sense as the Lib Dem group was pretty small - not sure Lib Dems even had a third of the council to get a budget through etc. I'm sure other executive mayors will have done something similar. That's probably as close as you'll get to this.

Yes, there are certainly some examples of parties entering coalition even when they have a majority - one example is actually Dorset as of yesterday, where the Greens have joined the LD majority and taken up a cabinet position. I presume a combination of wanting to be somewhat collaborative, and that a few more votes makes a one vote majority look a little more secure.

I suppose the idea of a majority failing to govern sounds absurd, but then there are so many councils and so many elections, that all sorts of absurd things have happened at some time or another. And we've certainly seen plenty of dysfunctional council groups!

Another perhaps spiritually similar situation is the Scottish councils run by Labour minorities from third place.

[uthacalthing]

I was on a council where we were the largest party, due to a landslide of gains. But our group leader was able to hand over power to his Lib Dem colleagues who he knew better and trusted more. When he was eventually deposed he joined them.

I have kept many pets. I love most animals. I have never wished to keep a snake. I do not fear them or hate them. I just see no point in them.

BTW Shunt, the Millenium Tortoise, is currently having a bath to himself

[iain]

May 14, 2024 20:05:09 GMT uthacalthing said:

I had a sort of similar question relating to elected Mayors and PCCs.

Given that part of the supposed logic was that these posts might attract capable individuals from beyond party politics, and taking into account the somewhat self-serving eulogies offered to Andy Street by political opponents as part of their justified attack on Sunak, have we seen any evidence of a political party choosing not to put up a candidate and instead endorsing the candidate of another party or an Independent?

I quite fancy being in a party that does not select candidates but instead critiques those who do and offers a recommendation

The Lib Dems have endorsed an Independent a couple of times I think. Definitely we endorsed Independent incumbent Martin Surl in Gloucestershire in 2016 (then stood against him in 2021, and he was our candidate this year).

[edgbaston]

Ask the forum:

Has there ever been a situation in a council elected by thirds, where a ruling party faced near total or total wipeout in an election, but happily kept on running the council due to reasonable showings in the previous years against the apparent wishes of the local electors.

In other words has there ever been a split that went something like:

Year 1: 8/10 Maj party
Year 2: 8/10 Maj party
Year 3: 0/10 Maj party

[johnloony]

May 17, 2024 13:14:32 GMT edgbaston said:

Ask the forum:

Has there ever been a situation in a council elected by thirds, where a ruling party faced near total or total wipeout in an election, but happily kept on running the council due to reasonable showings in the previous years against the apparent wishes of the local electors.

In other words has there ever been a split that went something like:

Year 1: 8/10 Maj party
Year 2: 8/10 Maj party
Year 3: 0/10 Maj party

Probably loads of examples

[J.G.Harston]

May 17, 2024 13:14:32 GMT edgbaston said:

Ask the forum:

Has there ever been a situation in a council elected by thirds, where a ruling party faced near total or total wipeout in an election, but happily kept on running the council due to reasonable showings in the previous years against the apparent wishes of the local electors.

In other words has there ever been a split that went something like:

Year 1: 8/10 Maj party
Year 2: 8/10 Maj party
Year 3: 0/10 Maj party

From the numbers that would give them 16 seats out of 30, so while it would be hell on the whips, they would still be in the majority.

[Pete Whitehead]

May 17, 2024 13:37:09 GMT J.G.Harston said:

May 17, 2024 13:14:32 GMT edgbaston said:

Ask the forum:

Has there ever been a situation in a council elected by thirds, where a ruling party faced near total or total wipeout in an election, but happily kept on running the council due to reasonable showings in the previous years against the apparent wishes of the local electors.

In other words has there ever been a split that went something like:

Year 1: 8/10 Maj party
Year 2: 8/10 Maj party
Year 3: 0/10 Maj party

From the numbers that would give them 16 seats out of 30, so while it would be hell on the whips, they would still be in the majority.

That was the point

[Pete Whitehead]

May 17, 2024 13:35:54 GMT johnloony said:

May 17, 2024 13:14:32 GMT edgbaston said:

Ask the forum:

Has there ever been a situation in a council elected by thirds, where a ruling party faced near total or total wipeout in an election, but happily kept on running the council due to reasonable showings in the previous years against the apparent wishes of the local electors.

In other words has there ever been a split that went something like:

Year 1: 8/10 Maj party
Year 2: 8/10 Maj party
Year 3: 0/10 Maj party

Probably loads of examples

I also thoutght there would be 'loads' of examples but haven't found one yet. I thought Basildon might be a good bet as the Conservatives won all the seats there in 1992 and lost everywhere in 1994 but they had not done well enough in 1991 to retain a majority. There are obviously loads of examples of a party winning a small minority of seats in one cycle and staying in control because of the other two, but not where they won none (or almost none)

[Pete Whitehead]

For example in 2015 the Lib Dems only won in 3 of 13 wards in Three Rivers but retained a majority - but we need to do better than that.

[hullenedge]

May 17, 2024 13:50:12 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

For example in 2015 the Lib Dems only won in 3 of 13 wards in Three Rivers but retained a majority - but we need to do better than that.

Kirklees 1975 Labour won 3 wards (one unopposed) and held onto the council by the mayor's casting vote. There must be better examples. Pre-1974 parties held control thanks to the aldermen after suffering oblivion in a cycle or two.

[john07]

May 17, 2024 13:54:52 GMT hullenedge said:

May 17, 2024 13:50:12 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

For example in 2015 the Lib Dems only won in 3 of 13 wards in Three Rivers but retained a majority - but we need to do better than that.

Kirklees 1975 Labour won 3 wards (one unopposed) and held onto the council by the mayor's casting vote. There must be better examples. Pre-1974 parties held control thanks to the aldermen after suffering oblivion in a cycle or two.

I can recall Labour regaining control of Stoke-on-Trent in the late 1960s only to lose it back again after the Aldermanic elections .

[andrewp]

May 17, 2024 13:14:32 GMT edgbaston said:

Ask the forum:

Has there ever been a situation in a council elected by thirds, where a ruling party faced near total or total wipeout in an election, but happily kept on running the council due to reasonable showings in the previous years against the apparent wishes of the local electors.

In other words has there ever been a split that went something like:

Year 1: 8/10 Maj party
Year 2: 8/10 Maj party
Year 3: 0/10 Maj party

2000 in Tamworth is very close

1998 Lab 10 Con 0
1999 Lab 8 Con 1 Ind 1
2000 Con 11 Lab 1. Lab didnt top the poll in any of the 10 wards but got the 2nd seat in a double vacancy in Glascote

2000 Council. Lab 16 Con 13 Ind 1

[J.G.Harston]

May 17, 2024 13:48:38 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

May 17, 2024 13:35:54 GMT johnloony said:

Probably loads of examples

I also thoutght there would be 'loads' of examples but haven't found one yet. I thought Basildon might be a good bet as the Conservatives won all the seats there in 1992 and lost everywhere in 1994 but they had not done well enough in 1991 to retain a majority. There are obviously loads of examples of a party winning a small minority of seats in one cycle and staying in control because of the other two, but not where they won none (or almost none)

My memory tells me it was close to that scenario in Sheffield when the LibDems lost the council in 2002, but my memory is misleading me. The LibDems lost loads of seats, but held half of what they were defending, resulting in Labour being the biggest party, but one seat short of having a majority. The LibDems ceded them control of the council but coordinated with the other parties to form a majority at the AGM to out-vote Labour on setting committee placements. It was my second year as a whip, and I spent the entire meeting forcing people to remain and preventing them from drifting off. No you *can't* get a sandwich, no you *can't* "just pop" to the loo, no you *can't* pop out for a ciggie.

[Clark]

What's the best bookmakers site for betting on individual seats at the General Election?

[kevinf]

May 27, 2024 11:25:37 GMT Clark said:

What's the best bookmakers site for betting on individual seats at the General Election?

Ladbrokes has some ridiculous odds on Tories in safe seats, eg 4/7 to hold Sevenoaks. We’ll worth a punt on Tories to hold some of these safe seats whet3 there’s no obvious challenger.