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Post by andrewteale on Nov 6, 2020 21:39:46 GMT
Westminster 2018. C 41 (-3) Lab 19 (+3). Changes based on 2014: C gain from Lab Churchill (1) Lab gain from C Bayswater (1) Maida Vale (2) West End (1) Split wards in 2018 were: Bayswater: 1Lab/2C Churchill: 2Lab/1C West End: 2C/1Lab
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Nov 7, 2020 5:31:22 GMT
If Churchill was a Conservative gain shouldn't it be Blue?
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 7, 2020 6:13:13 GMT
If Churchill was a Conservative gain shouldn't it be Blue? They won the third seat, whilst Labour retained the first and second. Since Andrew's maps only show the top candidate result in multi-seat wards, he's coloured that ward in red. This may not be the best way to represent the results in multi-seat wards, but it's how he consistently does it.
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Nov 7, 2020 6:39:50 GMT
If Churchill was a Conservative gain shouldn't it be Blue? They won the third seat, whilst Labour retained the first and second. Since Andrew's maps only show the top candidate result in multi-seat wards, he's coloured that ward in red. This may not be the best way to represent the results in multi-seat wards, but it's how he consistently does it.
Thanks
I always assumed it was who won that year, for some reason I hadn't realised that though I've looked at many many maps of his.
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Post by John Chanin on Nov 7, 2020 8:27:08 GMT
They won the third seat, whilst Labour retained the first and second. Since Andrew's maps only show the top candidate result in multi-seat wards, he's coloured that ward in red. This may not be the best way to represent the results in multi-seat wards, but it's how he consistently does it.
Thanks
I always assumed it was who won that year, for some reason I hadn't realised that though I've looked at many many maps of his. I think the point you are missing is that London (and many other places) don't elect in thirds, where there is a single person elected, but three at the same time. Andrew colours the top candidate in these cases.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 8, 2020 22:24:41 GMT
Thanks
I always assumed it was who won that year, for some reason I hadn't realised that though I've looked at many many maps of his. I think the point you are missing is that London (and many other places) don't elect in thirds, where there is a single person elected, but three at the same time. Andrew colours the top candidate in these cases. And where elections are in thirds (or occasionally in halves) he shows the most recent victor even when they're not the majority of seats in the ward.
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 8, 2020 23:23:04 GMT
I think the point you are missing is that London (and many other places) don't elect in thirds, where there is a single person elected, but three at the same time. Andrew colours the top candidate in these cases. And where elections are in thirds (or occasionally in halves) he shows the most recent victor even when they're not the majority of seats in the ward. For thirds elections I post here the map for the most recent year, with any wards not up for election that year in grey. Any maps not posted here go on LEAP in the appropriate place - however that queue is now cleared, as all the thirds councils for 2018 are now done. Craven, on the previous page of the thread, was the last one. Once I have cleared the last six result sets from 2018 (hopefully this week, as I'm off work on annual leave) it will be 2019 all the way. So far I've done 100 result sets for that year, with 148 to go. The number of map files on the LEAP server is around 10,000. I'm not drawing them all again.
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Nov 9, 2020 6:31:00 GMT
No one wants you to redo, this came up because I automatically think in thirds, thanks for everything you do on elections, it is really appreciated.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 9, 2020 9:54:56 GMT
Once I have cleared the last six result sets from 2018 (hopefully this week, as I'm off work on annual leave) it will be 2019 all the way. So far I've done 100 result sets for that year, with 148 to go. Only one of the Mets left to do for 2019 (Bury) so that's the obvious starting point I suppose.
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 9, 2020 15:20:01 GMT
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Post by John Chanin on Nov 9, 2020 15:30:49 GMT
Eastbrook (part of which is really Romford) is the only ward where the Conservatives got more than 50% of the Labour vote. I suppose completeness requires that maps be drawn for councils like this.
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Post by bjornhattan on Nov 9, 2020 15:52:08 GMT
Eastbrook (part of which is really Romford) is the only ward where the Conservatives got more than 50% of the Labour vote. I suppose completeness requires that maps be drawn for councils like this. I would be very interested to know whether Eastbrook voted Conservative in the general election. We'll never know for sure but I'd expect it was very close.
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Post by John Chanin on Nov 9, 2020 17:16:00 GMT
Eastbrook (part of which is really Romford) is the only ward where the Conservatives got more than 50% of the Labour vote. I suppose completeness requires that maps be drawn for councils like this. I would be very interested to know whether Eastbrook voted Conservative in the general election. We'll never know for sure but I'd expect it was very close. Given the closeness of the result in Dagenham & Rainham I am sure you are right. We’d need to weigh up how big the Conservative lead was in Rainham and South Hornchurch, both areas where there was traditionally a substantial Labour vote.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 9, 2020 17:36:42 GMT
I would be very interested to know whether Eastbrook voted Conservative in the general election. We'll never know for sure but I'd expect it was very close. I’m pretty confident it voted Labour. My own notionals from 2017 have about a 4% larger Labour lead than the constituency as a whole, and it’s a pretty demographically representative area (class, ethnicity etc) so I doubt it trended much more Conservative than the constituency as a whole. The Conservative vote is very much concentrated in the Hornchurch end of the constituency where they will have reasonably comfortably won all 3 wards in 2017 and even more so in 2019.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 9, 2020 19:40:26 GMT
I would be very interested to know whether Eastbrook voted Conservative in the general election. We'll never know for sure but I'd expect it was very close. I’m pretty confident it voted Labour. My own notionals from 2017 have about a 4% larger Labour lead than the constituency as a whole, and it’s a pretty demographically representative area (class, ethnicity etc) so I doubt it trended much more Conservative than the constituency as a whole. The Conservative vote is very much concentrated in the Hornchurch end of the constituency where they will have reasonably comfortably won all 3 wards in 2017 and even more so in 2019. I wouldn't be confident - probably pretty much neck and neck. As was mentioned, a substantial part of this ward (Rush Green) is effectively Romford, physically and culturally and distinct from Dagenham 'proper'. And it is demographically quite distinct from the other Dagenham wards - much more owner occupied than the other wards(apart from the Chadwell Heath area) and significantly whiter. Less so than the Havering wards of course, but therefore fairly typical of the constituency as a whole
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 9, 2020 19:52:01 GMT
Hammersmith and Fulham 2018. Lab 35 (+9) C 11 (-9). Changes based on 2014: Lab gain from C Addison (1) Avonmore and Brook Green (2) Ravenscourt Park (3) Sands End (3) No split wards in 2018.
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 10, 2020 12:27:53 GMT
Harrogate 2018. C 31 LD 7 Ind 2. New ward boundaries. That completes North Yorkshire for 2018. Harrogate has now moved to whole council elections and will next poll in 2922.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 10, 2020 12:45:51 GMT
Harrogate 2018. C 31 LD 7 Ind 2. New ward boundaries. That completes North Yorkshire for 2018. Harrogate has now moved to whole council elections and will next poll in 2922. Phew, 904 year terms! There’ll be some by-elections there I suspect 😉
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 10, 2020 13:13:00 GMT
Harrogate 2018. C 31 LD 7 Ind 2. New ward boundaries. That completes North Yorkshire for 2018. Harrogate has now moved to whole council elections and will next poll in 2922. Phew, 904 year terms! There’ll be some by-elections there I suspect 😉 That's too good a mistake to fix.
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 11, 2020 14:36:40 GMT
Harrogate 2018. C 31 LD 7 Ind 2. New ward boundaries. That completes North Yorkshire for 2018. Harrogate has now moved to whole council elections and will next poll in 2922. Phew, 904 year terms! There’ll be some by-elections there I suspect 😉 nah, they'll use cooption. It's cheaper and more stable.
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