By-elections - August 4th

[maxque]

Labour HOLD in East Brighton.

Lab 1488
Con 514
Grn 286
LD 116
Ind ??
UKIP

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BRIGHTON AND HOVE East Brighton

Partial result

Lloyd Russell-Moyle (Labour and Co-operative Party) 1,488
David Plant (Conservative Party Candidate) 514
Mitch Alexander (Green Party) 286
Andrew England (Liberal Democrats) 116

No figures for:

Leigh Farrow (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Ramon Sammut (Independent)

[Old Fashioned Leftie]

Frome Britain Elects -

South East Holderness
CON: 38.5% (+3.6)
LAB: 33.8% (+7.9)
UKIP: 16.4% (-13.3)
IND: 7.3% (+7.3)
LDEM: 4.1% (+4.1)

[Old Fashioned Leftie]

From Britain Elects

East Brighton (Brighton & Hove) result:
LAB: 57.5% (+11.1)
CON: 19.9% (-2.6)
GRN: 11.1% (-8.5)
UKIP: 5.9% (+5.9)
LDEM: 4.5% (-3.4)
IND: 1.2%

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Looks like UKIP got about 150, and the Independent about 30, in East Brighton.

[curiousliberal]

Going backwards in Brighton does not bode well for our party's chances of reconciling with our student base, although Alston Moor is a bright spot tonight.

[Sibboleth]

Aug 4, 2016 23:50:28 GMT curiousliberal said:

Going backwards in Brighton does not bode well for our party's chances of reconciling with our student base

Then I have some good news for you; it isn't a student ward but one dominated by a big council estate.

[curiousliberal]

D'oh! Thank you for correcting my error there.

Still, going backwards from a vote that low already isn't fantastic, to say the least. These things do happen in council elections from time to time, usually due to local factors, but it's still not pleasing.

[Robert Waller]

Alston Moor (Eden) result:
LDEM: 54.6% (+54.6)
CON: 45.4% (+15.7)

[Khunanup]

Aug 5, 2016 0:11:21 GMT curiousliberal said:

D'oh! Thank you for correcting my error there.

Still, going backwards from a vote that low already isn't fantastic, to say the least. These things do happen in council elections from time to time, usually due to local factors, but it's still not pleasing.

There is a pattern to our by-election results. Look at Andrew's previews and take stock.

[middleenglander]

Ashford, Beaver - UKIP gain from Labour

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"	since 2013 B	since 2011 B	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"
UKIP	373	42.1%	+11.6%	+8.3%	+23.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	243	27.4%	-3.3%	-3.0%	-8.4%	-10.1%	-11.4%	-14.1%
Conservative	240	27.1%	+0.2%	+3.4%	+7.9%	-0.8%	-9.4%	-6.9%
Green	31	3.5%	-3.8%	-3.4%	+1.2%	+0.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent			-4.7%	-5.2%	-4.1%
Ashford Independent					-10.3%	-12.4%	-24.8%	-24.6%
Liberal Democrat					-9.6%	-19.3%
Total	887		33%	37%	107%	99%	71%	77%

Swing Labour to UKIP 6% / 7½% since 2015 and ~16% since 2013 by-election

Council now 35 Conservative, 2 Labour, 2 Ashford Independent, 2 UKIP, 1 Liberal democrat, 1 Independent

Brighton & Hove, East Brighton - Labour hold

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"	since 2012 B	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"
Labour	1,488	57.5%	+11.1%	+9.4%	+1.0%	+10.9%	+10.4%
Conservative	514	19.9%	-2.6%	-3.2%	+1.1%	-1.4%	-2.0%
Green	286	11.1%	-8.5%	-5.5%	-4.4%	-10.6%	-9.4%
UKIP	152	5.9%	from nowhere	from nowhere	+0.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	116	4.5%	-3.4%	-3.9%	+2.4%	-2.8%	-2.4%
Independent	31	1.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
TUSC			-3.7%	-3.9%	-1.9%	-3.2%	-3.6%
Total votes	2,587		37%	40%	92%	59%	66%

Swing Conservative to Labour ~6½% since 2015, nil since 2012 by-election and ~6% since 2011 largely, but not entirely, as a result of increased Labour share from Green / TUSC

Council now 23 Labour, 20 Conservative, 11 Green

East Riding of Yorkshire, South East Holderness - Conservative hold

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"	since 2012 B	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"
Conservative	917	38.5%	+3.6%	+3.1%	+1.0%	+5.3%	+7.4%
Labour	806	33.8%	+7.9%	+9.4%	+1.9%	+16.2%	+15.9%
UKIP	390	16.4%	-13.3%	-14.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent	173	7.3%	-2.3%	-2.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	98	4.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	-6.4%	-6.9%
Previous Independent					-30.6%	-23.7%	-24.9%
Independent						-10.4%	-10.1%
Independent						-4.7%	-5.0%
Total votes	2,384		35%	36%	75%	44%	46%

Swing Conservative to Labour ~2% / 3% since 2015, ½% since 2012 by-election and 4% / 5% since 2011 as Labour share increases more than the increase in the Conservative share 

Council now 49 Conservative, 6 Labour, 6 Independent, 3 UKIP, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Conservative

Eden, Alston Moor - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"
Liberal Democrat	302	54.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	251	45.4%	+4.7%	-0.3%	+14.1%	+13.9%
Previous Independents			-59.3%	-54.3%	-35.0%	-35.2%
Independents					-14.2%	-13.7%
Labour					-19.4%	-19.6%
Total votes	553		46%	52%	44%	45%

Swing not meaningful

Council now 20 Conservative, 10 Independent, 8 Liberal Democrat

Newcastle-under-Lyme, Silverdale & Parksite - Labour gain from UKIP sitting as Independent Group

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2015	since 2014	since 2013 B	since 2011	since 2010
Labour	399	56.4%	+9.7%	+19.5%	+2.2%	+10.0%	+19.2%
UKIP	174	24.6%	from nowhere	-21.2%	-11.0%	-17.9%	-3.2%
Conservative	80	11.3%	-10.6%	-0.4%	+3.2%	+0.3%	-8.2%
Independent	54	7.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Previous Independent			-22.9%
Green			-5.3%	-3.5%
TUSC			-3.3%	-2.0%	-2.0%
Liberal Democrat							-15.5%
Total votes	707		37%	68%	99%	70%	43%

Swing UKIP to Labour ~20% since 2014, ~6½% since 2013 by-election, ~14% since 2011 and ~11% since 2010

Council now 28 Labour, 21 Conservative, 6 Independents, 3 Liberal Democrat, 2 UKIP

Nottinghamshire, Bingham - Conservative hold

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2013	since 2009	since 2005
Conservative	1,270	44.0%	+2.2%	-4.7%	+0.7%
Independent	1,232	42.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	382	13.2%	-7.0%	+3.4%	-10.4%
Liberal Democrat			-19.9%	-29.1%	-30.6%
UKIP			-18.0%
Previous Independents				-12.3%	-2.3%
Total votes	2,884		79%	70%	46%

Swing not meaningful

Council now 32 Labour, 21 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat, 6 independents

Rushcliffe, Cranmer - Conservative hold

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2015	since 2011 *	since 2007 *
Conservative	318	54.3%	-17.6%	-16.0%	-21.9%
Independent	138	23.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	130	22.2%	-7.0%	-7.5%	-1.6%
Total votes	586		42%	70%	78%

* boundary changes across the authority but thought to have little effect on ward

Swing not meaningful

Council now 34 Conservative, 4 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent

[finsobruce]

Aug 4, 2016 23:25:36 GMT timmullen1 said:

Labour HOLD East Brighton, Brighton & Hove

One of you two is going to have to grow a moustache you know. It's very confusing.

[marksenior]

Aug 5, 2016 0:11:52 GMT Robert Waller said:

Alston Moor (Eden) result:
LDEM: 54.6% (+54.6)
CON: 45.4% (+15.7)

LDem 302 Con 251

[politicalmatrix]

Promising result for UKIP in Ashford.

Nice to have some positive news, seems to have been very little post-Brexit.

[timmullen1]

Aug 5, 2016 5:36:59 GMT finsobruce said:

Aug 4, 2016 23:25:36 GMT timmullen1 said:

Labour HOLD East Brighton, Brighton & Hove

One of you two is going to have to grow a moustache you know. It's very confusing.

I tried but the grey hairs made me look like Clive Dunn in Dad's Army 😳

[Merseymike]

The last few weeks have displayed just how few real marginals there are and that changes of hands are often down to local circumstance

[The Bishop]

Aug 5, 2016 14:11:01 GMT politicalmatrix said:

Promising result for UKIP in Ashford.

Nice to have some positive news, seems to have been very little post-Brexit.

Harriet Yeo's patch isn't it?

Must admit I was a bit surprised nobody predicted a UKIP win here, it always seemed like somewhere their recent slump could be bucked.

[middleenglander]

Without wishing to underplay the Liberal Democrat achievements in gaining 9 seats in by-elections since May, 5 from Conservatives, I do believe too much can be read into some of the results, as demonstrated by some comments on other sites, whereas an overview may give a deeper impression.

For example this week there were 7 by-elections but the Liberal Democrats did not contest 4 of them:
- Ashford, Beaver where they polled nearly 10% in a 2013 by-election and approaching 20% in a 2011 by-election,
- Newcastle-under-Lyme, Silverdale & Parksite where they polled 15% when last contested in 2010,
- Nottinghamshire, Bingham where they polled almost 20% in 2013 and some 30% in 2009 and 2005
- Rushcliffe, Cranmer not contested in recent times.
In Brighton & Hove, East Brighton the Liberal Democrat share at 4½% was some 3% / 4% lower than in 2015 and 2011 although 2½% up on a 2012 by-election
whilst in the East Riding of Yorkshire, South East Holderness the 4% share was well down on the 10½% / 11% achieved when they last contested the seat in 2011.

The great excitement was largely due to the gain from a Conservative in Eden, Alston Moor. But here things may not be quite as they seem as a review of elections in this century shows.

Year	Candidates	Seats	Electorate	Valid Papers	Turnout	Elected	Con vote	Highest vote	Con share of of valid papers
2003	2 Ind	2	?	-	unopposed	2 Ind	-	-	-
2007	3 Ind	2	1,700	717	42.3%	2 Ind	-	533	-
2011	1 Con, 1 Lab, 3 Ind	2	1,894	866	45.7%	1 Ind, 1 Con	390	436	45.0%
2015	1 Con, 2 Ind	2	1,748	1,108	63.4%	1 Ind, 1 Con	487	710	44.0%
2016 by	1 Con, 1 LD	1	1,686	563	33.4%	1 LD	251	302	44.6%

Alston Moor is a 2 member ward with an electorate below 2,000, hence classed as a small ward. 
It was non-political in 2003 and 2007 whilst in 2011 and 2015 an Independent topped the poll.
The Conservative received a vote from a constant ~ 45% share of all those voting in the 3 most recent elections where they had a candidate.
A Liberal Democrat contested the seat for this first time in recent history appearing to pick up the 55% of voters who have not voted Conservative in the past Council elections.

Although this is a 2 member ward it has the characteristics of a small ward where a very high proportion of seats have recently changed hands.  It is also a "split" ward where changes tend to occur.

[Adam in Stroud]

Sound stuff, middleenglander, and therefore useful much as I'd like to discount it.

It seems to me that both in the Eden case and a couple of gains in July we won in seats we did not previously stand in.  So there is some improvement merely by being able to find candidates where we previously could not, and that is some cause for optimism - it suggests that we are no longer totally demoralised and able to gain some benefit as a result, small wards or not. And to some extent perceived success helps despite the caveats - "winning here" etc.  It is quite hard to spin being the only party to make net gains in bye-elections as not some sort of success.

East Brighton seemed disappointing to me - not expecting a win, but I thought an increased vote share might be possible with Labour in some local difficulty.  Looks like I should add SE Holderness to that.

[marksenior]

I take note of what middleenglander says but although it is the only way to do so it is not particularly accurate to compare the vote shares in East Brighton as the Lib Dems only had 1 candidate in 2015 and that will give a higher % than if they had fielded a full slate .
The 2 Notts contests are more interesting as the Independents in Bingham aka Bingham First are almost all former Lib Dems ( indeed some of them still are ) led by Rushcliffe District Councillor George Davidson elected originally in 2003 as a Lib Dem but re elected in 2015 as an Independent. George Davidson was also the Lib Dem candidate for Bingham in 2005/20092013 .It is no surprise that the Lib Dems did not compete against them in the by election .