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Post by markgoodair on Aug 1, 2016 18:04:22 GMT
South Africa goes to the polls on Wednesday to elect new councils and will be an important indicator as to how unpopular the ANC have become under Zuma.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2016 18:12:06 GMT
How well does the ANC tend to do in local elections compared to general elections? Are they actually competitive?
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 3, 2016 9:23:03 GMT
The DA's problem is a bit like that of the ANC - it's history and image.
The all-encompassing national party makes sense given the origins of South Africa -the alternative is seen in Zimbabwe - but in time the ANC's hold will decline further. But I'm not convinced the DA will ever break through outside it's target areas.
The ANC could still revive if they dispose of Zuma.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2016 13:44:25 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2016 14:00:27 GMT
The DA's problem is a bit like that of the ANC - it's history and image. The all-encompassing national party makes sense given the origins of South Africa - the alternative is seen in Zimbabwe - but in time the ANC's hold will decline further. But I'm not convinced the DA will ever break through outside it's target areas. The effective challenge to the ANC will eventually come from the left and the labour movement. The metal workers union and the former SG of COSATU have been trying to get an alternative off the ground for some time, if they do not succeed other challenges will follow. The origins of Zimbabwe and modern SA are quite different. ZANU-PF was based on a guerilla army and a small clique of party apparatchiks and came to power after winning a guerilla war, it was then challenged by a trade union based party. ANC is based on an alliance of anti-apartheid activists with Communists and trade unions and came to power after a negotiated settlement. The SA security apparatus is not engaged in politics and democracy is firmly rooted. And the ANC are after all much better at managing the economy than ZANU-PF (a very low bar, admittedly). |
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 3, 2016 14:03:13 GMT
The DA's problem is a bit like that of the ANC - it's history and image. The all-encompassing national party makes sense given the origins of South Africa - the alternative is seen in Zimbabwe - but in time the ANC's hold will decline further. But I'm not convinced the DA will ever break through outside it's target areas. The effective challenge to the ANC will eventually come from the left and the labour movement. The metal workers union and the former SG of COSATU have been trying to get an alternative off the ground for some time, if they do not succeed other challenges will follow. The origins of Zimbabwe and modern SA are quite different. ZANU-PF was based on a guerilla army and a small clique of party apparatchiks and came to power after winning a guerilla war, it was then challenged by a trade union based party. ANC is based on an alliance of anti-apartheid activists with Communists and trade unions and came to power after a negotiated settlement. The SA security apparatus is not engaged in politics and democracy is firmly rooted. And the ANC are after all much better at managing the economy than ZANU-PF (a very low bar, admittedly). agree with all that. The point about Zimbabwe was the tribal/ethnic split between Mugabe and Nkomo which the ANC avoided The election of Ramophosa as successor to Zuma may get the ANC back on track |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2016 14:22:30 GMT
The effective challenge to the ANC will eventually come from the left and the labour movement. The metal workers union and the former SG of COSATU have been trying to get an alternative off the ground for some time, if they do not succeed other challenges will follow. The origins of Zimbabwe and modern SA are quite different. ZANU-PF was based on a guerilla army and a small clique of party apparatchiks and came to power after winning a guerilla war, it was then challenged by a trade union based party. ANC is based on an alliance of anti-apartheid activists with Communists and trade unions and came to power after a negotiated settlement. The SA security apparatus is not engaged in politics and democracy is firmly rooted. And the ANC are after all much better at managing the economy than ZANU-PF (a very low bar, admittedly). agree with all that. The point about Zimbabwe was the tribal/ethnic split between Mugabe and Nkomo which the ANC avoided The election of Ramaphosa as successor to Zuma may get the ANC back on track Cyril Ramaphosa is currently popular and quite capable, but he also represents the worst of the ANC. A former union leader turned fat cat businessman thanks to political connections who went on to condone the suppression of strikes and the killing of miners in the Marikana massacre. He is a sell-out in the eyes of many. I think his ascension to the top job in the long run would further the notion that ANC is a vehicle for party insiders and the new black bourgeoisie. www.aljazeera.com/blogs/africa/2015/11/ghost-marikana-haunts-ramaphosa-151113113810520.html |
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Post by lancastrian on Aug 3, 2016 22:28:18 GMT
It is amazing that South Africa can manage to map the results from all its rural polling stations, whilst here we have to trawl through endless PDFs in the corners of council websites to get any results.
On the results reported so far, you can't draw any conclusions from partial South African results without trawling through individual station breakdowns, as there's huge differences between how different areas within the same authority vote- there's loads of 95% ANC areas, so whether they've reported or not matters. Cape Town even has some 95% DA areas.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2016 9:55:02 GMT
For those that don't know BEE is Black Economic Empowerment. Its the South African version of Affirmative Action. As in the United States although low income blacks are helped by affirmative action it is the black middle class who gain the most economic benefit from this policy. The speech and policy changes earlier this year from the DA leader indicating a full embrace of BEE policy could have helped a lot in winning over black middle class voters. I suspect that poorer black voters who gain less from BEE and more from direct government spending in their areas would be much less likely to be moved from the ANC by this policy shift. BEE includes transfer of property rights and is far more widereaching than AA. If a company wants to engage in business with any kind of government body – apply for a tender, purchase a state-owned asset or enter a public-private partnership etc. it needs to let blacks own a certain share of the company and constitute a certain share of management. |
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 4, 2016 10:09:52 GMT
Problem is that reduced turnout in the townships isn't particularly positive as a development .
It means no significant opposition has emerged where the majority of people live
And emphasises that the DA still has significant limitations
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Post by lancastrian on Aug 5, 2016 17:14:24 GMT
They haven't entirely finished yet, but it's been two days so.. Changes from the last local elections in 2011.
National (97% counted)
ANC 54.32% (-7.6%)
DA. 26.41% (+2.5%)
EFF. 8.03%
Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth)
DA. 46.71% (+6.6%)
ANC 40.92% (-11.0%)
EFF. 5.12%
DA 4 seats short of a majority. The only possible combination of less than 4 parties is DA+EFF(!).
The ANC won a clear majority of first past the post wards, but that doesn't affect the overall result.
Tshwane (Pretoria) (85% complete)
ANC 42.89% (-12.4%)
DA. 41.62% (+3.0%)
EFF 11.53%
Remaining votes probably slightly favour the ANC.
Johannesburg (77% complete)
DA 41.95% (+7.3%)
ANC 41.51% (-17.0%)
EFF.10.52%
Remaining votes quite heavily favour the ANC, who I think will get more votes than the DA.
Cape Town (97% complete)
DA. 66.38% (+5.5%)
ANC 24.54% (-8.3%)
EFF 3.19%
The ANC comfortably retained their majorities in the Buffalo City (East London), eThekwini(Durban), and Mangaung(Bloemfontein) metropolitan areas, and I think just about will in Ekurhuleni.
The EFF got 16% in Limpopo province and 15% in North West, their highlights being 28% in Polokwane and 26% in Rustenberg.
Overall, not that much change, despite the ANC's travails. The DA making limited advances as ever and the EFF not really going anywhere either. These are however the 'worst' results in the ANC's impressive electoral history, which won't help Zuma's position in the party.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2016 18:17:49 GMT
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Post by lancastrian on Aug 6, 2016 21:53:10 GMT
Final results:
ANC 53.91% (-8.04%) 161 (-19) councils controlled, largest party on a further 15.
DA. 26.89% (+2.95%) 19 ( +5) 5
EFF. 8.20%
IFP. 4.25% (+0.68%) 6 ( +4) 1
Tshwane/Pretoria
DA. 43.11% (+ 4.46%)
ANC 41.22% (-14.1%)
EFF 11.7%
Johannesburg
ANC 44.55% (-14.01%)
DA. 38.37% (+ 3.75%)
EFF 11.09%
Ekurhuleni
ANC 48.64% (-12.99%)
DA. 34.15% (+ 3.86%)
EFF 11.23%
Contrary to my previous post, the DA ended up largest party in Pretoria, but probably can't run it, and the ANC did lose their majority in Ekurhuleni (a metropolitan district east of Johannesburg not including any dominant well known city).
I thought this was page 2 of this thread?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2016 22:06:00 GMT
A bit more detailed:
Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth)
DA 46.71% - 57 seats (2011: 40.13%)
ANC 40.92% - 50 seats (2011: 51.91%)
EFF 5.12% - 6 seats
UDM 1.91% - 2 seats
AIC 0.95% - 1 seat
UFEC (local) 0.94% - 1 seat
COPE 0.73% - 1 seat
ACDP 0.36% - 1 seat
PA 0.27% - 1 seat
DA will probably form a majority coalition with the UDM, COPE and other minor parties.
Mangaung (Bloemfontein)
ANC 56.52% - 58 seats
DA 25.96% - 27 seats
EFF 8.66% - 9 seats
VF+ 1.92% - 2 seats
AIC 1.69% - 2 seats
'ANA' 0.89% - 1 seat
COPE 0.6% - 1 seat
Cape Town
DA 66.61% - 154 seats
ANC 24.36% - 57 seats
EFF 3.17% - 7 seats
ACDP 1.21% - 3 seats
Al Jama'ah 0.66% - 2 seats
AIC 0.59% - 1 seat
VF+ 0.41% - 1 seat
DI 0.3% - 1 seat
UDM 0.26% - 1 seat
CMC 0.26% - 1 seat
PAC 0.25% - 1 seat
COPE 0.25% - 1 seat
PA 0.2% - 1 seat
Cape Town was a massive victory for the DA and a horrendous defeat for the ANC.
Tshwane (Pretoria)
DA 43.11% - 93 seats
ANC 41.22% - 89 seats
EFF 11.7% - 25 seats
VF+ 1.99% - 4 seats
ACDP 0.49% - 1 seat
COPE 0.24% - 1 seat
PAC 0.17% - 1 seat
Big DA victory - although it's only a plurality victory, resulting in a hung council with the EFF holding the balance of power.
eThekwini (Durban)
ANC 56.01% - 126 seats
DA 26.92% - 61 seats
IFP 4.2% - 10 seats
EFF 3.44% - 8 seats
Ind 4.2% - 4 seats
AIC 1.37% - 3 seats
ACDP 0.54% - 1 seat
MF 0.53% - 1 seat
DLC 0.52% - 1 seat
TA 0.41% - 1 seat
MOSA 0.31% - 1 seat
APC 0.21% - 1 seat
Al Jama'ah 0.19% - 1 seat
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 6, 2016 23:49:38 GMT
In a country not short of dodgy or vile groupings, it's sad to to see Al Jamma'ah getting anywhere.
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Post by maxque on Aug 7, 2016 0:24:15 GMT
In a country not short of dodgy or vile groupings, it's sad to to see Al Jamma'ah getting anywhere. Only due to the electoral system. 0.19% is pretty much going nowhere. |
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Post by mboy on Aug 7, 2016 12:54:57 GMT
Is it pure party lists, or an AMS variant?
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 7, 2016 12:56:12 GMT
Is it pure party lists, or an AMS variant? AMS variant. |
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Post by john07 on Aug 7, 2016 13:23:11 GMT
Final results: ANC 53.91% (-8.04%) 161 (-19) councils controlled, largest party on a further 15. DA. 26.89% (+2.95%) 19 ( +5) 5 EFF. 8.20% IFP. 4.25% (+0.68%) 6 ( +4) 1 Tshwane/Pretoria DA. 43.11% (+ 4.46%) ANC 41.22% (-14.1%) EFF 11.7% Johannesburg ANC 44.55% (-14.01%) DA. 38.37% (+ 3.75%) EFF 11.09% Ekurhuleni ANC 48.64% (-12.99%) DA. 34.15% (+ 3.86%) EFF 11.23% Contrary to my previous post, the DA ended up largest party in Pretoria, but probably can't run it, and the ANC did lose their majority in Ekurhuleni (a metropolitan district east of Johannesburg not including any dominant well known city). I thought this was page 2 of this thread? It was until someone deleted all of his posts (in a fit of pique?). |
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Post by lancastrian on Aug 7, 2016 18:32:57 GMT
Is it pure party lists, or an AMS variant? AMS variant. The number of seats won in total is proportional, as I will try to explain in the following paragraph: Quota is (total votes/seats) +1, divide each party's total votes by the quota, and round down any fractions. Seats left over are then allocated to the parties with the biggest fractions of a quota until all are taken.(E.g you have 30.7 quotas, you get 30 seats, then probably get another for your 0.7 being a biggest remainder) These are the total numbers of seats won by each party, including any FPTP wards won. Note that there are two ballots- ward and list, and 'total votes' in quota and seat calculation means both combined. There are FPTP wards, but who wins them is irrelevant to the overall result, unless an independent or a party with no list wins, in which case their seats are removed from the total seat number when calculating the quota. So your total seats are calculated first, then you take off the number of wards you've won to get your list seats. Alternatively, here's a graphic from South Africa's election commission to explain it: www.elections.org.za/content/uploadedImages/SeatAllocationThumb.gif?n=1725 |
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