Clinton vs. Trump: who will win?

[neilm]

Aug 8, 2016 21:27:28 GMT @odo said:

On why the female vote is decisive: 53% of registered voters are women and they turn out to vote at rates 10% higher than men. Historically the GOP was "the party of women", but they haven't won the female vote since 1988 and the 20% gender gap in 2012 was the highest ever. Romney lost the female vote by 12 points, but won the male by 8. In recent decades the most decisive factor among female voters has been marital status. Romney lost single women by 20 points, but won married women by 6 points. This time it looks like education will rival marital status as the decisive factor among women. Well-educated married women in the suburbs will go for Clinton in unprecedented numbers, at the same time single women will constitute a record 23% of the electorate and this is a group the GOP will likely lose at least 70/30 (2008 was 70 to 29 and Trump wont do better than McCain).

With an electorate that is only 69% white, and Hispanics likely to vote in significantly higher numbers than the 48% that turned out last time Trump needs to narrow the gender gap, but instead he looks destined to increase it.

In 1976, women broke for Ford whereas men plumped for Carter? I hadn't realised that.

[john07]

The gender gap was much the same in Britain up to the 1990s with women favouring the Conservatives and men Labour in an even split election.

[Deleted]

Aug 9, 2016 7:19:00 GMT john07 said:

The gender gap was much the same in Britain up to the 1990s with women favouring the Conservatives and men Labour in an even split election.

The history is different in the US because the Republicans were historically more positive towards women's causes (incl. prohibition, which was popular with female voters). Whereas the Democrats were supported by the groups with the most patriarchal family structure. The US suffragettes almost all came from Republican backgrounds.

The Nineteenth Amendment that gave women the vote was passed by 200-19 among Republicans in the House, but only 102-69 among Democrats. In the Senate it was 36-8 among Republicans, but 20-17 among Democrats. 

The groups that were the most amongst female suffrage were German Lutherans, Catholics and Southerners. All Democratic core voters. The northern WASPs (and Scandinavian Lutherans), which formed the basis of the Republicans, were much more supportive of legal gender equality.

It was the cultural divide between "pietists" and liturgical religion with the Republicans attracting the (non-Southern..) pietists (non-conformists, Presbyterians, Scandinavian Lutherans) and the Democrats having the "liturgicals" (Catholics, German Lutherans, Episcopalians).  

Prohibition was a major gender divider. In 1928 Herbert Hoover became known as "the woman's candidate" and was endorsed by the National Woman's Party

The depression did not completely eradicate this pattern. The best estimate for 1932 is FDR won 63-35 among men, but only 57-41 among women (based on voters recollection in 1936). Eisenhower won the female vote based on women blaming the Democrats for the Korean War, inflation, and corruption in Washington. The GOP was seen as the more responsible and moral party. 

It was second wave feminism (incl. abortion), the South going Republican and the GOP starting to becoming perceived as the more warlike party, that changed the pattern. Probably also support for the "Great Society", but that is less clear. 

[Deleted]

Aug 9, 2016 10:21:35 GMT @odo said:

Aug 9, 2016 7:19:00 GMT john07 said:

The gender gap was much the same in Britain up to the 1990s with women favouring the Conservatives and men Labour in an even split election.

The history is different in the US because the Republicans were historically more positive towards women's causes (incl. prohibition, which was popular with female voters). Whereas the Democrats were supported by the groups with the most patriarchal family structure. The US suffragettes almost all came from Republican backgrounds.

The Nineteenth Amendment that gave women the vote was passed by 200-19 among Republicans in the House, but only 102-69 among Democrats. In the Senate it was 36-8 among Republicans, but 20-17 among Democrats. 

The groups that were the most amongst female suffrage were German Lutherans, Catholics and Southerners. All Democratic core voters. The northern WASPs (and Scandinavian Lutherans), which formed the basis of the Republicans, were much more supportive of legal gender equality.

It was the cultural divide between "pietists" and liturgical religion with the Republicans attracting the (non-Southern..) pietists (non-conformists, Presbyterians, Scandinavian Lutherans) and the Democrats having the "liturgicals" (Catholics, German Lutherans, Episcopalians).  

Prohibition was a major gender divider. In 1928 Herbert Hoover became known as "the woman's candidate" and was endorsed by the National Woman's Party

The depression did not completely eradicate this pattern. The best estimate for 1932 is FDR won 63-35 among men, but only 57-41 among women (based on voters recollection in 1936). Eisenhower won the female vote based on women blaming the Democrats for the Korean War, inflation, and corruption in Washington. The GOP was seen as the more responsible and moral party. 

It was second wave feminism (incl. abortion), the South going Republican and the GOP starting to becoming perceived as the more warlike party, that changed the pattern. Probably also support for the "Great Society", but that is less clear. 

Great summary and explanation, thanks!

[carlton43]

I have withdrawn my vote for Trump. There was a period where he seemed to have engaged with a mood and a movement already there in embryo. Now his acts and pronouncements are without form or purpose and his failure to run a campaign on the ground at all will inevitably lead to failure. The GOP really need to distance themselves with a formal statement and ask supporters to concentrate on all the other contests and to leave him to contest quite alone. he appears to have become unhinged and that will get through to a majority before polling day.