Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2016 17:43:50 GMT
Who do you think will win?
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Jul 21, 2016 17:44:59 GMT
Clinton.
Easily.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 21, 2016 18:22:28 GMT
Clinton will win comfortably and the Democrats will likely take the Senate as well (and with it The Supreme Court). The GOP will probably just hold onto The House but that is no longer close to a certainty.
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 21, 2016 19:46:43 GMT
Who's the second person who thinks Trump will win?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2016 20:00:23 GMT
I haven't voted yet, because I personally can't call it. The polls have been close.
A consensus is definitely emerging here. But we thought Remain was going to win the EU referendum. We thought there would be a hung parliament last year with Labour as the largest party. No-one imagined that old rebel Jeremy Corbyn could ever become Labour leader. Can we take anything for granted any more?
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Jul 21, 2016 20:18:17 GMT
With the amount of the electorate that Trump has alienated during his campaign, I don't see how it's possible for him to win.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 21, 2016 21:26:35 GMT
The only chance of a Trump presidency IMO is a lowish poll in which his "angry" core vote disproportionately turns out.
But I think he will motivate plenty to vote *against* him as well.....
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 21, 2016 21:40:43 GMT
Who's the second person who thinks Trump will win? Probably your man from Stettin. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 21, 2016 21:44:27 GMT
I haven't voted yet, because I personally can't call it. The polls have been close. A consensus is definitely emerging here. But we thought Remain was going to win the EU referendum. We thought there would be a hung parliament last year with Labour as the largest party. No-one imagined that old rebel Jeremy Corbyn could ever become Labour leader. Can we take anything for granted any more? There's a key difference here though. Remain and Leave were a binary choice, but the concepts weren't as offensive as Trump and Clinton. That and nobody doubted that Leave did actually have a bit of nous and were making an effort. Whereas by all accounts the Trump campaign is a bit amateurish. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Jul 21, 2016 22:49:32 GMT
Don't know how - but Trump.
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pomofaced
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Post by pomofaced on Jul 21, 2016 22:53:42 GMT
Trump and by a surprising margin. It will be 1980 all over again
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 21, 2016 23:43:06 GMT
Trump and by a surprising margin. It will be 1980 all over again It so isn't 1980 that it is untrue. Reagan was a political giant while Trump is nothing more than a troll who will be an embarrassing foot note in history. Forget the specifics and concentrate on this simple truth. Reagan appealed to the GOP base while also attracting a wide range of support. Trump can't even unite the base and is appealing to a narrow range of support. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 22, 2016 1:21:13 GMT
I don't know and have no way of knowing. But then many of you with your assertive certainty about Florida, Arizona and Ohio don't know either. How can you? This is not typical and normal Red v. Blue stuff. This is akin to Brexit and I just have a vague smell of 'change'.
I have a visceral loathing of Clinton that would have me out pounding the pavement for Trump, in order to see her fail. Don't overlook that vote. Don't overlook the WWC backlash from Dem to Trump. Don't overlook the NRA and pro-Police lobby....the anti-Moslem lobby...the anti-Immigrant lobby...the Law n' Order lobby...the hate-Obama sector, the hate-Latino sector......And a possible difference in TO between those fired up by Trump over those less fired up for Hilary (if that is a possible position to hold?).
I can see a possibility that far more rednecks will change to Trump from Dem than smooth well educated Rep will go to Dem. So I very gingerly call this as a possible for Trump.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 22, 2016 2:21:46 GMT
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Jul 22, 2016 7:00:02 GMT
Clinton. Too many people will be inspired to go out and vote against Trump for him to win.
But most importantly, compare Cruz's speech this week to Sanders' endorsement of Hillary. The Democrats are united and only Susan Sarandon will be holding out for 'Bernie or Bust' by the time we have had a full campaign with debates, while Trump's flaws will stop many Republicans from supporting him.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 22, 2016 10:23:27 GMT
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john07
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Post by john07 on Jul 22, 2016 15:48:44 GMT
"Conrad Black The brilliant Donald Trump deserves to win His political achievements are already unprecedented, and his insight amounts to genius" Well he has managed to stay out of jail, so far! Which is more than can be said for Conrad Black. |
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pomofaced
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Post by pomofaced on Jul 22, 2016 22:44:59 GMT
when did he leave prison? |
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john07
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Post by john07 on Jul 22, 2016 23:08:47 GMT
Trump and by a surprising margin. It will be 1980 all over again It so isn't 1980 that it is untrue. Reagan was a political giant while Trump is nothing more than a troll who will be an embarrassing foot note in history. Forget the specifics and concentrate on this simple truth. Reagan appealed to the GOP base while also attracting a wide range of support. Trump can't even unite the base and is appealing to a narrow range of support. And the demographic balance in 1980 was very very different to 2016. Reagan was a candidate who was generally liked not just within his own party base. Reagan ran a very professional campaign and hired people who knew what they were doing. Reagan had plenty of political experience as a two two time Governor of California. He was a former trade union official (Screen Actors Guild). He may not have been universally liked but was respected across the political spectrum. Reagan picked his main rival George HW Bush as running mate. Meantime John Anderson stood as a third party candidate and collected a lot of votes from disillusioned Democrats. He faced a very unpopular President humiliated by the Iran hostage crisis. |
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Post by Tangent on Jul 22, 2016 23:33:07 GMT
ted across the political spectrum. Reagan picked his main rival George HW Bush as running mate. To be fair, the scuttlebutt current at the moment suggests that Trump would have liked to have Kasich on board, and would have been prepared to give him considerable actual power as a result. |
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