Prediction competition for June 2016

[middleenglander]

It looks as though there are 16 by-elections together with 1 election deferred from May 5th during June 2016:

* 6 by-elections on 2nd June along with the deferred election
* 4 on 9th June
* 1 on 16th June
* 1 on 23rd June
* 4 o 30th June

2 by-elections are for seats where there were elections in May
- 1 in an Unitary Authority and 1 a District Council
6 including the deferred election are for seats where the last election was in 2015
- 2 in Unitary Authorities and 4 in District Councils
3 are in London Boroughs last contested in 2014
2 are in County Councils last contested in 2013
3 are in Wales last contested in 2012
1 is in Scotland where the last main election was in 2012 although there have been 3 by-elections in the ward since then.

Conservatives are defending 6 seats, 1 following the death of the previous Councillor and 5 a resignation
Labour is defending 5 seats including the deferred election, with 2 of the by-elections due to a death and 2 a resignation
Liberal Democrats are defending 2 seats, both following a resignation
SNP 1 seat after a resignation and
Independents 3 seats all following a death.

With nominations available for 13 of the 17 contests:
Conservatives are contesting all 13 seats, Labour 12, Liberal Democrats 10, Green 8, UKIP 7, Independents 6 for 5 contests, Plaid Cymru and TUSC 2 each, SNP 1
- a total of 61 candidates so far.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.

There is a by-election on Friday 1st July but this will be within the July completion.

[hedgehog]

Oban North & Lorn
SNP 42
Con 36
Ind 22
Lib Dems 10

Denbigh Lower Denbighshire
Ind 37
PC 26
Lab 13
Lib Dems 12
Con 12

Dyserth Denbighshire
Con 40
Williams Ind 29
Lab 21
Parry Ind 10
PC 6
Lib Dems 4

Sherborne Rural Dorset CC
Lib Dems 49
Con 45
Lab 6

Lewes Bridge Lewes DC
Lib Dems 30
Green 28
Lab 24
Con 18

Barking & Somersham Middle Suffolk DC
Con 45
Green 30
Lib Dems 27
Lab 8

Aldershot Park Rushmoor DC
Con 32
Lab 31
UKIP 30
Green 7

[marksenior]

Argyll Oban N SNP 44 Con 27 Ind 22 LD 7
Denbighshire Lower Denbigh Ind 33 Plaid 25 Lab 17 Con 14 LD 11
Denbighshire Dyserth Ind Williams 28 Con 25 Lab 16 Plaid 15 Ind Parry 10 LD 6
Dorset Sherborne LD 55 Con 38 Lab 7
Lewes Lewes Bridge LD 35 Green 29 Lab 23 Con 13
Suffolk Barking Con 42 LD 27 Green 18 Lab 13
Rushmoor Aldershot Park Lab 39 Con 31 UKIP 20 Green 10

[greenhert]

Argyll UA, Oban North: (1st preferences) SNP 45, Conservative 25, Independent (Green) 21, Liberal Democrats 9.
Denbighshire UA, Lower Denbigh: Independent (Young) 35, Plaid Cymru 26, Labour 15, Conservative 14, Liberal Democrats 10.
Denbighshire UA, Dyserth: Independent (Williams) 30, Con 28, Lab 15, Plaid 14, Independent (Parry) 8, Lib Dem 5.
Dorset CC, Sherborne Rural: Lib Dem 48, Con 44, Lab 8.
Lewes DC, Lewes Bridge: Green 34, Lib Dem 32, Lab 20, Con 14.
Suffolk CC, Barking & Somersham: Con 47, Lib Dem 24, Green 20, Lab 9.
Rushmoor BC, Aldershot Park: Lab 38, Con 36, UKIP 20, Green 6.

[Robert Waller]

Argyll Oban N SNP 38 Con 30 Ind 24 LD 8
Denbighshire Lower Denbigh Ind 38 Plaid 22 Lab 20 Con 10 LD 10
Denbighshire Dyserth Ind Williams 21 Con 23 Lab 16 Plaid 10 Ind Parry 24 LD 6
Dorset Sherborne LD 47 Con 43 Lab 10
Lewes Lewes Bridge LD 41 Green 26 Lab 17 Con 16
Suffolk Barking Con 45 LD 26 Green 19 Lab 10
Rushmoor Aldershot Park Lab 37 Con 38 UKIP 20 Green 5

[Davıd Boothroyd]

ARGYLL AND BUTE Oban North and Lorn: SNP 45, C 29, Ind 17, L Dem 9
DENBIGHSHIRE Denbigh Lower: Ind 38, PC 24, Lab 19, C 12, L Dem 7
DENBIGHSHIRE Dyserth: C 35, Lab 26, Ind Williams 15, L Dem 9, Ind Parry 8, PC 7
DORSET Sherborne Rural: L Dem 55, C 37, Lab 8
LEWES Lewes Bridge: L Dem 52, GP 18, Lab 16, C 14
MID SUFFOLK Barking and Somersham: C 46, L Dem 28, GP 19, Lab 7
RUSHMOOR Aldershot Park: Lab 41, C 36, UKIP 19, GP 4

[maxque]

ARGYLL AND BUTE Oban North and Lorn: SNP 43, C 29, Ind 23, LD 5
DENBIGHSHIRE Denbigh Lower: Ind 38, PC 25, Con 20, Lab 9, LD 8
DENBIGHSHIRE Dyserth: C 30, Ind Williams 27, Lab 19, Ind Parry 11, LD 10, PC 3
DORSET Sherborne Rural: LD 50, C 47, Lab 3
LEWES Lewes Bridge: LD 33, Grn 30, Lab 22, C 15
MID SUFFOLK Barking and Somersham: C 43, LD 19, Grn 19, Lab 19
RUSHMOOR Aldershot Park: Lab 37, C 32, UKIP 28, Grn 3

[hempie]

Argyll & Bute, Oban North: SNP 42, Con 26, Ind 22, Lib Dem 10
Denbighshire, Lower Denbigh: Ind 34, PC 25, Lab 17, Con 13, Lib Dem 11
Denbighshire, Dyserth: Ind(Williams) 30, Con 25, Lab 16, PC 15, Ind(Parry) 10, Lib Dem 4
Dorset, Sherborne Rural: Lib Dem 49, Con 42, Lab 9
Lewes, Lewes Bridge: Lib Dem 37, Green 25, Lab 20, Con 18
Suffolk, Barking & Somersham: Con 46, Lib Dem 25, Green 17, Lab 12
Rushmoor, Aldershot Park: Lab 35, Con 32, UKIP 29, Green 4

[Pete Whitehead]

Dorset CC - Sherborne Rural

LD   48.9%
Con 46.5%
Lab   4.6%


Lewes DC - Lewes Bridge

LD   44.1%
Lab 22.4%
Grn 19.4%
Con 14.1%


Mid Suffolk DC

Con 48.2%
LD   25.9%
Grn 16.7%
Lab    9.2%


Rushmoor BC - Aldershot Park

Lab   36.6%
Con  33.2%
UKIP 26.5%
Grn     3.7%


Argyll & Bute - Oban N & Lorn

SNP  40.2%
Con  27.6%
Ind    21.3%
LD     10.9%


Denbighshire - Denbigh Lower

Ind   35.7%
PC    26.4%
Con  16.3%
Lab  12.8%
LD      8.8%


Denbighshire - Dyserth

Con     35.4%
Ind W 24.5%
Lab      14.7%
Ind P   10.9%
PC         9.1%
LD         5.4%

[lennon]

ARGYLL AND BUTE Oban North and Lorn: SNP 40, C 35, Ind 15, L Dem 10
DENBIGHSHIRE Denbigh Lower: Ind 20, PC 26, Lab 24, C 20, L Dem 10
DENBIGHSHIRE Dyserth: C 30, Lab 20, Ind Williams 15, L Dem 15, Ind Parry 10, PC 10
DORSET Sherborne Rural: L Dem 50, C 45, Lab 5
LEWES Lewes Bridge: L Dem 50, GP 15, Lab 20, C 15
MID SUFFOLK Barking and Somersham: C 50, L Dem 30, GP 5, Lab 15
RUSHMOOR Aldershot Park: Lab 36, C 34, UKIP 25, GP 5

[middleenglander]

9 entries this week with nothing from Arthur Figgis and Just Looking whilst Tony Otim is once again absent without leave. Hedgehog gets 3x10 additional faults for adding to 110% in Argyll & Bute, Denbighshire: Dyserth and Mid Suffolk.

Argyll & Bute: 100% SNP ahead on first preferences with lead over Conservative ranging from 5% (Lennon) to 20% Greenhert
Denbighshire, Dyserth: 5 Conservative hold, Greenhert, hempie & Mark Senior Independent Williams gain, Robert Waller Independent Parry gain
Denbighshire, Denbigh Lower: 8 Independent hold with majority ranging from 8% (Mark Senior) to 16% (Robert Waller), Lennon Plaid Cymru gain
Dorset: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative with majority ranging from 2.4% (Pete Whitehead) to 18% (David Boothroyd)
Lewes: 8 Liberal Democrat hold with majority ranging from 2% (hedgehog) to 34% (David Boothroyd), Greenhert Green gain
Mid Suffolk: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 15% (hedgehog) to 24% (Maxque)
Rushmoor: 7 Labour hold with majority ranging from 2% (Greenhert & Lennon) to 8% (Mark Senior), hedgehog & Robert Waller Conservative gain

[middleenglander]

Mark With 2 results awaited it looks like Pete Whitehead, Maxque, hempie, Greenhert and then Mark Senior. Full results later.

[middleenglander]

Argyll & Bute, Oban North & Lorn
Pete Whitehead 11.4 faults, hempie 11.8, Robert Waller 15.4, Greenhert 15.8, Mark Senior 17.8, Maxque 19.8, David Boothroyd 23.8, Lennon 25.8, hedgehog 21.8+10

Denbighshire, Denbigh Lower
Pete Whitehead 8.4 faults, Greenhert 11.0, hedgehog 12.4, Maxque 13.8, hempie & Mark Senior 17.0, David Boothroyd 21.3, Robert Waller 24.4, Lennon 39.3+10

Denbighshire, Dyserth
Robert Waller 28.2+10 faults, Mark Senior 45.0, Maxque 35.1+10, hempie 49.0, Greenhert 51.0, Pete Whitehead 46.6+10, Lennon 48.2+10. David Boothroyd 64.2+10, hedgehog 59.0+10+10

Dorset, Sherborne Rural
Maxque 1.3 faults, Pete Whitehead 1.9, Lennon 3.4, hedgehog 4.7, Greenhert 8.7, hempie 10.7, Robert Waller 12.7, Mark Senior 17.4, David Boothroyd 19.4

Lewes, Lewes Bridge
Robert Waller 12.8 faults, Pete Whitehead 18.9, Mark Senior 19.2, hempie 21.9, Maxque 23.2, David Boothroyd 23.5, Lennon 26.7, hedgehog 29.9, Greenhert 25.2+10

Mid Suffolk, Barking & Somersham
hedgehog 19.1+10+10 faults, David Boothroyd & Robert Waller 31.1+10, Greenhert 31.2+10, Mark Senior 33.1+10, hempie 35.2+10, Pete Whitehead 35.7+10, Maxque 43.2+10, Lennon 59.1+10

Rushmoor, Aldershot Park
Maxque 19.0 faults, Pete Whitehead 20.5, hempie 21.8, Lennon 24.7, David Boothroyd 26.7, Mark Senior 28.7, Greenhert 30.7, hedgehog 29.8+10, Robert Waller 32.7+10

and for the week:

163.4 Pete Whitehead
175.4 Maxque
177.4 hempie

187.2 Robert Waller
188.2 Mark Senior
193.6 Greenhert

230.0 David Boothroyd
236.7 hedgehog
257.3 Lennon

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 4 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on Thursday.

[marksenior]

Basildon Lab 37 UKIP 35 Con 22 Green 6
Lambeth Lab 61 Green 13 Con 11 LD 6 TUSC 4 UKIP 3 Ind 2
NE Lincs Lab 63 UKIP 23 Con 14 Green 6 TUSC 4
Southwark LD 31 Lab 30 Con 21 Green 8 UKIP 6 Ind 4

[hedgehog]

Basildon: UKIP 38, Lab 36, Con 22, Green 4
Gipsy Hill: Green 38, Lab 34, Con 11, UKIP 7, Lib Dems 6, Ind 2, TUSC 2
Lincs: UKIP 40, Lab 35, Con 21, Green 3, TUSC 1
Surrey Docks: Lib Dems 25, Lab 23, Con 22, Green 17, UKIP 11, Ind 2

[greenhert]

Essex CC, Basildon Laindon Park & Fryerns: Labour 38, UKIP 35, Conservative 23, Green Party 4.
Lambeth LBC, Gipsy Hill: Lab 62, Green 12, Con 10, Liberal Democrats 8, TUSC 3, UKIP 3, Independent (Lambert) 2.
North East Lincolnshire UA, South: Lab 54, UKIP 22, Con 17, Green 5, TUSC 2.
Southwark LBC, Surrey Docks: Lib Dem 33, Lab 29, Con 20, Green 8, UKIP 7, Independent (Hellings) 3.

[Robert Waller]

Essex CC, Basildon Laindon Park & Fryerns: Labour 45, UKIP 34, Conservative 18, Green Party 3.
Lambeth LBC, Gipsy Hill: Lab 64, Green 12, Con 11, Liberal Democrats 6, TUSC 1, UKIP 3, Independent (Lambert) 3.
North East Lincolnshire UA, South: Lab 60, UKIP 25, Con 10, Green 3, TUSC 2.
Southwark LBC, Surrey Docks: Lib Dem 32, Lab 30, Con 20, Green 10, UKIP 5, Independent (Hellings) 3

[Davıd Boothroyd]

ESSEX Basildon Laindon Park and Fryerns: Lab 44, UKIP 39, C 12, GP 5
LAMBETH Gipsy Hill: Lab 56, C 20, GP 12, L Dem 5, UKIP 4, Ind 2, TUSC 1
NORTH EAST LINCOLNSHIRE South: Lab 50, UKIP 33, C 10, GP 4, TUSC 3
SOUTHWARK Surrey Docks: L Dem 35, C 26, Lab 25, GP 7, UKIP 6, Ind 3

[hempie]

Essex, Basildon Laindon Park & Fryerns: Labour 42, UKIP 39, Conservative 15, Green Party 4
Lambeth, Gipsy Hill: Lab 57, Green 19, Con 10, Lib Dem 6, UKIP 3, Ind 3, TUSC 2
North East Lincolnshire, South: Lab 50, UKIP 35, Con 10, Green 3, TUSC 2
Southwark, Surrey Docks: Lib Dem 34, Lab 30, Con 20, Green 8, UKIP 6, Ind 2

[maxque]

Essex, Basildon Laindon Park & Fryerns: Lab 39, UKIP 38, Con 17, Grn 6
Lambeth, Gipsy Hill: Lab 65.3, Con 14.3, Grn 10.7, LD 4.9, UKIP 2.8, Ind 1, TUSC 1
North East Lincolnshire, South: Lab 52, UKIP 24, Con 20, Grn 2, TUSC 2
Southwark, Surrey Docks: LD 34, Lab 21, Con 19, Grn 12, UKIP 11, Ind 3