Short Preview of Council Elections - 5th May 2016
May 3, 2016 20:35:38 GMT
greenchristian likes this
Post by middleenglander on May 3, 2016 20:35:38 GMT
There are 2,744 seats being contested in 124 authorities on Thursday, including a few returned unopposed and one deferred until 2nd June following the death of a candidate. In addition there are 79 vacancies being filled through by-elections including 27 within the 124 authorities with annual elections, all but one being "double" elections.
There are "all out" elections for 887 seats in 18 authorities:
- 507 seats in 12 District Councils compared to 544 previously, a reduction of 37 or some 7%
- 188 seats in 3 Unitary Authorities, an increase of 4 and
- 192 seats in 3 Metropolitan Councils, a reduction of 18 (all in Knowsley).
Of the remaining 1,857 seats mainly elected in 2012 (but including a few Councils with "all out" elections in 2014 and 2015 now electing by thirds) :
- 736 (40%) seats are in 51 District Councils electing by thirds where there were elections last year,
- 124 seats (7%) in 7 District Councils electing by "halves" where the previous elections were in 2014
- 271 seats (15%) in 16 Unitary Authorities electing by thirds with elections last May and
- 726 seats (39%) in 32 Metropolitan Councils with elections last May.
Conservatives are defending some 557 of these seats (30% of 1,857), Labour approximately 959 (52%), Liberal Democrats circa 224 (12%), Green 21, UKIP 9, Independent 50, Residents 27 and Others 10 - subject to changes in allegiance.
Most authorities polling by thirds will have the same wards as last year, although a few do have a largely different set, eg Harrogate and South Lakeland. As a benchmark (not a prediction) if the Conservatives polled the same as last year (ignoring a different mix along with candidate personal votes) they could gain around 230 seats excluding those authorities with "all out" elections and the 7 that elect by "halves". Inclusion of these latter two groups would take the gains on a very similar performance to last May to around 275 gains.
There are "all out" elections for 887 seats in 18 authorities:
- 507 seats in 12 District Councils compared to 544 previously, a reduction of 37 or some 7%
- 188 seats in 3 Unitary Authorities, an increase of 4 and
- 192 seats in 3 Metropolitan Councils, a reduction of 18 (all in Knowsley).
Of the remaining 1,857 seats mainly elected in 2012 (but including a few Councils with "all out" elections in 2014 and 2015 now electing by thirds) :
- 736 (40%) seats are in 51 District Councils electing by thirds where there were elections last year,
- 124 seats (7%) in 7 District Councils electing by "halves" where the previous elections were in 2014
- 271 seats (15%) in 16 Unitary Authorities electing by thirds with elections last May and
- 726 seats (39%) in 32 Metropolitan Councils with elections last May.
Conservatives are defending some 557 of these seats (30% of 1,857), Labour approximately 959 (52%), Liberal Democrats circa 224 (12%), Green 21, UKIP 9, Independent 50, Residents 27 and Others 10 - subject to changes in allegiance.
Most authorities polling by thirds will have the same wards as last year, although a few do have a largely different set, eg Harrogate and South Lakeland. As a benchmark (not a prediction) if the Conservatives polled the same as last year (ignoring a different mix along with candidate personal votes) they could gain around 230 seats excluding those authorities with "all out" elections and the 7 that elect by "halves". Inclusion of these latter two groups would take the gains on a very similar performance to last May to around 275 gains.