Post by greenhert on Apr 23, 2016 20:42:22 GMT
My predictions for 2016 devolved elections in the UK are as follows:
London Assembly
1. I predict the overall turnout will be 42.8%.
2. On the [single member] constituency ballot, I predict that Labour will receive 44% of the vote, the Conservatives 32%, the Green Party 9%, UKIP 7%, and the Liberal Democrats 6%.
3. On the list ballot, I predict that Labour will receive 42.5%, the Conservatives 28.6%, the Green Party 9.1%, UKIP 7.6%, the Liberal Democrats 5.5%, and other parties [individually falling below the 5% threshold] a total of 6.7%.
4. I predict that Labour will receive 9 constituency seats and the Conservatives will receive 5 constituency seats.
5. I predict the seat totals for each party will be: Labour 12, Conservative 8, Green 2, UKIP 2, Liberal Democrats 1.
6. I predict that Havering & Redbridge will have the largest swing on 5 May.
7. I predict that West Central will have the smallest swing on 5 May.
8. I predict that the safest constituency seat in the London Assembly on 5 May will be City & East, held by Labour.
9. I predict that the most marginal constituency seat in the London Assembly on 5 May will be Croydon & Sutton, held by the Conservatives.
10. Of the single member constituencies in the London Assembly, City & East will be strongest for Labour, West Central will be strongest for the Conservatives, South West London will be strongest for the Liberal Democrats, Havering & Redbridge will be strongest for UKIP, and North East will be strongest for the Greens.
11. I predict that the South West constituency will have the highest turnout and that the City & East constituency will have the lowest turnout in this London Assembly election.
12. (skipped as already effectively answered in questions 4 and 5)
13. City & East will declare first and Croydon & Sutton will declare last.
Northern Ireland:
(note: questions 2,4,5,7, 8 and 9 have been skipped; I do not believe it is realistically possible to predict two-party swings in elections using STV)
1. I predict the turnout will be 56.8% overall.
3. I predict that: the DUP will receive 37 seats, Sinn Fein will receive 27 seats, the UUP will receive 18 seats, the SDLP will receive 12 seats, the Alliance Party will receive 9 seats, the Green Party will receive 2 seats, People Before Profit will receive 2 seats, and that the TUV will receive 1 seat.
6. Strongest support by constituency in the NI Assembly election: DUP: North Antrim; Sinn Fein: Belfast West; UUP: Strangford; SDLP: Foyle.
Scotland:
(note: I will skip questions 7,8,12,13 and 14.)
1. I predict the overall turnout to be 54.8%.
2. I predict the following constituency ballot votes by party: SNP: 53%, Labour 20%, Conservative 18%, Liberal Democrats 7%.
3. I predict the following list ballot votes by party: SNP: 42%, Labour 18%, Conservative 18%, Green 10%, Liberal Democrats 7%, UKIP 3%, Others 2%.
4. I predict that in SMC seat terms that: the SNP will receive 65 seats, Labour 3 seats, the Conservatives 2 seats, and the Liberal Democrats 3 seats.
5. I predict that only these single member constituencies will not return an SNP MSP this year: Orkney (Lib Dem), Shetland (Lib Dem), Eastwood (Con), Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire (Con), Edinburgh Western (Lib Dem), Edinburgh Southern (Lab), Edinburgh Northern & Leith (Lab), and Dumfriesshire (Lab).
6. I predict that the Scottish Parliament seat totals for this year will be: SNP 70, Labour 27, Conservative 18, Green 9, Liberal Democrats 5.
9. The safest seat in this election will be Dundee City East, held by the SNP.
10. The most marginal seat in this election will be Edinburgh Southern, gained by Labour via anti-SNP tactical voting.
11. I predict that the strongest support for each party by SMC will be: SNP: Dundee City East; Labour: Edinburgh Northern & Leith, Conservative: Ettrick, Roxburgh & Selkirk; Liberal Democrats: Orkney.
Wales:
(note: I will skip questions 11,12 and 13.)
1. I predict the overall turnout for the 2016 Welsh Assembly election will be 44.5%.
2. I predict that the SMC vote by party will be: Labour 36%, Plaid Cymru 21%, Conservatives 17%, UKIP 16%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Greens 4%.
3. I predict that the list vote by party will be: Labour 32%, Plaid Cymru 21%, Conservatives 19%, UKIP 15%, Liberal Democrats 5%, Green 5%, Others 3%.
4. I predict that in SMC terms, Labour will receive 26 seats, Plaid Cymru will receive 7 seats, the Conservatives will receive 6 seats, and the Liberal Democrats will receive 1 seat.
5. I predict the seat totals will be: Labour 26, Plaid Cymru 12, Conservative 11,, UKIP 7, Liberal Democrats 2, Green 2.
6. I predict that Cardiff Central will have the largest swing on 5 May (from Liberal Democrat to Green, although Labour will likely hold the seat).
7. I predict that Monmouth will have the smallest swing on 5 May.
8. I predict that Blaenau Gwent will be the safest seat in this election, held by Labour.
9. I predict that the Vale of Clwyd will be the most marginal seat in this election, gained by the Conservatives.
10. By party, I predict that these SMCs will have the strongest support: Labour: Blaenau Gwent, Conservative: Monmouth, Plaid Cymru: Ynys Mon, Liberal Democrats: Brecon & Radnorshire, UKIP: Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney; Green: Cardiff Central.
