Prediction Competition for April 2016

[middleenglander]

10 entries this week, all present and correct.

Caerphilly: 100% Labour hold with majority over Plaid Cymru ranging from 20%(Lennon) to 34% (Maxque)
East Riding of Yorkshire: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 6%(Greenhert) to 40%(Lennon)
Perth & Kinross: 9 SNP ahead on first preferences with majority ranging from 2% (Greenhert & Mark Senior) to 13.5% (Pete Whitehead) with Lennon Conservative 1% ahead

[middleenglander]

Caerphilly, Ynysddu
David Boothroyd 16.1 faults, krollo 20.5, hempie 20.7, Greenhert & Maxque 22.7, Pete Whitehead 23.3, Robert Waller 26.5, Tony Otim 30.3, Mark Senior 38.1, Lennon 40.1

East Riding of Yorkshire, Pocklington Provincial
Robert Waller 26.0+10 faults, Pete Whitehead 29.0+10, David Boothroyd 30.0+10, krollo 36.0+10, Maxque 37.2+10, hempie 38.1+10, Mark Senior 44.0+10, Greenhert 48.0+10, Lennon 52.0+10, Tony Otim 67.0+10

Perth & Kinross, Almond & Earn
Lennon 19.5 faults, Greenhert 17.1+10, Robert Waller 19.1+10, Maxque & Tony Otim 19.3+10, Mark Senior 21.1+10, hempie 25.1+10. krollo 27.5+10, David Boothroyd 29.1+10, Pete Whitehead 29.5+10

and for the week:

91.7 Robert Waller
95.1 David Boothroyd
99.2 Maxque

101.9 Pete Whitehead
103.9 hempie
104.0 krollo
107.8 Greenhert

121.6 Lennon
123.1 Mark Senior
136.6 Tony Otim

Objections please by 5.00 pm Saturday.

Final 3 by-elections next week before a circa 6 week break.

[carlton43]

Apr 7, 2016 11:25:51 GMT lennon said:

Apr 7, 2016 10:53:40 GMT carlton43 said:

Thanks for the feed back. On that basis and on knowing the patch a bit and the current mood, I call it for the Conservatives, yet note none of the regular experts have done so?

Here's hoping you're right...

Yes we were. Well done. Congratulations.

[Pete Whitehead]

Congratulations to Robert for the week, although none of us really covered ourselves with glory. I notice that two of the by-elections next week are in Cornwall, so that will be fun ..

[middleenglander]

The actual result of the Perth & Kinross result is slightly different to that reported last night in that the Conservative share was 0.4% lower whilst the SNP share 0.3% higher. I think this makes the same difference for each participant so do not propose the amend the figures above. The revised shares will however be incorporated into the final result next week.

[krollo]

Menheniot - Con 37, LD 23, UKIP 23, Lab 10, Grn 7
Wadebridge West - Con 37, LD 27, Ind 17, Lab 13, Grn 6
Taunton Halcon - LD 34, Con 22, UKIP 21, Lab 16, Grn 7

[Robert Waller]

Menheniot - Con 35, LD 33, UKIP 16, Lab 10, Grn 6
Wadebridge West - Con 29, LD 24, Ind 31, Lab 10, Grn 6
Taunton Halcon - LD 41, Con 24, UKIP 10, Lab 18, Grn 7

[lennon]

Menheniot - LD 35, Con 30, UKIP 15, Lab 10, Grn 10
Wadebridge West - Con 50, LD 20, Ind 20, Lab 5, Grn 5
Taunton Halcon - LD 45, Con 25, UKIP 10, Lab 15, Grn 5

[Davıd Boothroyd]

CORNWALL Menheniot: C 41, L Dem 27, UKIP 19, Lab 9, GP 4
CORNWALL Wadebridge West: Ind 34, C 26, L Dem 22, GP 11, Lab 7
TAUNTON DEANE Halcon: L Dem 37, C 27, UKIP 18, Lab 13, GP 5

[greenhert]

Cornwall UA, Menheniot: Conservative 38, Liberal Democrats 34, UKIP 15, Labour 8, Green 5.
Cornwall UA, Wadebridge West: Con 40, Lib Dem 23, Independent 20, Green 10, Lab 7.
Taunton Deane DC, Halcorn: Lib Dem 38, Con 30, UKIP 15, Lab 10, Green 7.

[marksenior]

Menheniot LD 34 Con 31 UKIP 23 Lab 8 Green 4
Wadebridge West Con 44 LD 34 Lab 10 Ind 7 Green 5
Taunton Deane LD 44 Con 29 UKIP 12 Lab 10 Green 5

[hempie]

Cornwall, Menheniot: Con 34, LD 32, UKIP 17, Lab 10, Green 7
Cornwall, Wadebridge West: Con 34, LD 28, Ind 24, Green 8, Lab 6
Taunton Deane, Halcon: LD 40, Con 30, UKIP 13, Lab 10, Green 7

[maxque]

Cornwall UA, Menheniot: Con 39, LD 29, UKIP 19, Lab 8, Grn 5
Cornwall UA, Wadebridge West: Ind 35, Con 28, LD 21, Lab 9, Grn 7
Taunton Deane DC, Halcon: LD 42, Con 24, Lab 19, UKIP 8, Grn 7

[Pete Whitehead]

Cornwall UA - Menheniot

LD     34.3%
Con   32.3%
UKIP 19.2%
Lab      9.1%
Grn     5.1%


Cornwall UA - Wadebridge West

Con 37.6%
LD   24.8%
Ind  21.8%
Lab    8.9%
Grn    6.9%


Taunton Deane BC Taunton Halcon

LD     40.8%
Con   26.5%
UKIP 14.3%
Lab   12.8%
Grn     5.6%

[middleenglander]

9 entries this week with nothing from Tony Otim.

Cornwall, Menheniot: 6 Conservative hold, Lennon, Mark Senior & Pete Whitehead Liberal Democrat gain
Cornwall, Wadebridge West: 6 Conservative hold, David Boothroyd, Maxque & Robert Waller Independent gain
Taunton Deane, Halcon: 100% Liberal Democrat hold

[Pete Whitehead]

Congratulations to Robert for the week and the month. I make it rather a close three-way thing for third place which I may not have had the best of, but depends on rounding from last week's figures

[middleenglander]

Apr 15, 2016 5:37:09 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Congratulations to Robert for the week and the month. I make it rather a close three-way thing for third place which I may not have had the best of, but depends on rounding from last week's figures

Am waiting to verify the figures as it appears to be down to second decimal points.

[middleenglander]

Cornwall, Menheniot
Greenhert 8.9 faults, Maxque & Robert Waller 16.9, David Boothroyd 19.8, hempie 20.9, Pete Whitehead 19.7+10, Lennon 22.9+10, krollo 32.9, Mark Senior 24.9+10

Cornwall, Wadebridge West
Mark Senior 36.7+10 faults, krollo 40.7+10, hempie 51.0+10, Pete Whitehead 51.6+10, Robert Waller 52.7+10, Greenhert & Maxque 59.0+10, David Boothroyd 61.0+10, Lennon 72.7+10

Taunton Deane, Halcon
Lennon 6.1 faults, Pete Whitehead 8.3, Robert Waller 11.3, Mark Senior 11.5, Maxque 13.3, David Boothroyd 15.5, hempie 15.6, Greenhert 19.5, krolls 23.2

and for the week
Robert Waller 90.9 faults, Mark Senior 93.1, Greenhert 97.4, hempie 97.5, Maxque 99.2, Pete Whitehead 99.6, David Boothroyd 106.3, krollo 106.8, Lennon 121.7

and for the month

181.7 Robert Waller
197.6 Maxque

200.59 hempie
200.60 David Boothroyd
200.66 Pete Whitehead

204.3 Greenhert
210.1 krollo

215.4 Mark Senior
242.6 Lennon

Objections please by noon Sunday.

We will have a break for some 5 or 6 weeks.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Edged out of bronze by 0.01? How can this be?

[Pete Whitehead]

That's a bit annoying