Prediction Competition for April 2016

[middleenglander]

There are 6 by-elections during April:
* 3 on 7th April and
* 3 on 14th April.

One of the by-elections is for a district council where the former councillor was elected in May 2015
- and another in an Unitary authority elected last May
Two are in an Unitary Authority where the last elections were in 2013
One is for a Scottish Authority with another in Wales where the last elections were in 2012.

Conservatives are defending 3 seats, one following the death of the former councillor and two after resignations,
Labour is defending 1 seat following a death,
Liberal Democrats are defending 1 seat after a resignation whilst
Independents are defending 1 seat following a death.

Labour is contesting all 6 seats, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and UKIP 5 each, Greens 3, Independents 2, Plaid Cymru and SNP 1 each
- a total of 28 candidates.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on the day of the election.

[hempie]

An early entry from me this week as I am away from early tomorrow for a few days.
Caerphilly, Ynysddu: Lab 60, PC 25, UKIP 12, LD 3
E Riding Yorkshire, Pocklington Provincial: Con 35, Lab 25, UKIP 20, Ind 20
Perth & Kinross, Almond & Earn: SNP 39, Con 36, LD 12, Lab 10, UKIP 3

[greenhert]

My predictions for this week:

Caerphilly UA, Ynysddu: Labour 59, Plaid Cymru 27, UKIP 10, Liberal Democrats 4.
East Yorkshire UA, Pocklington Provincial: Conservative 38, Labour 32, UKIP 16, Independent (Strangeway) 14.
Perth & Kinross UA, Almond & Earn: (1st preference votes): SNP 42, Conservative 40, Liberal Democrats 8, Labour 7, UKIP 3.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

CAERPHILLY Ynysddu: Lab 54, PC 22, UKIP 18, L Dem 6
EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE Pocklington Provincial: C 45, Ind 23, Lab 21, UKIP 11
PERTH AND KINROSS Almond and Earn: SNP 48, C 34, Lab 8, L Dem 6, UKIP 4

[Robert Waller]

Caerphilly UA, Ynysddu: Labour 58, Plaid Cymru 29, UKIP 9, Liberal Democrats 4.
East Yorkshire UA, Pocklington Provincial: Conservative 47, Labour 18, UKIP 10, Independent (Strangeway) 25.
Perth & Kinross UA, Almond & Earn: (1st preference votes): SNP 43, Conservative 39, Liberal Democrats 6, Labour 8, UKIP 4.

[krollo]

Ynysddu: Lab 57, PC 26, UKIP 13, LD 4
Pocklington Provincial: Con 39, Lab 25, Ind 20, UKIP 16
Almond and Earn: SNP 45, Con 35, LD 9, Lab 9, UKIP 2

[maxque]

Caerphilly UA, Ynysddu: Lab 60, PC 26, UKIP 12, LD 2
East Yorkshire UA, Pocklington Provincial: Con 48.2, Ind 19.4, Labour 18, UKIP 14.4
Perth & Kinross UA, Almond & Earn: SNP 43.2, Con 38.9, Lab 8, LD 7.6, UKIP 2.3

[lennon]

Caerphilly UA, Ynysddu: Labour 50, Plaid Cymru 30, UKIP 10, Liberal Democrats 10.
East Yorkshire UA, Pocklington Provincial: Conservative 55, Labour 15, UKIP 15, Independent (Strangeway) 15.
Perth & Kinross UA, Almond & Earn: (1st preference votes): SNP 39, Conservative 40, Liberal Democrats 10, Labour 10, UKIP 1.

[marksenior]

Caerphilly Lab 53 Plaid 32 UKIP 8 LD 7
E Yorks Con 42 Lab 27 Ind 16 UKIP 15
Perth SNP 40 Con 38 Lab 10 LD 7 UKIP 5

[Tony Otim]

Apr 6, 2016 15:26:44 GMT tonyotim said:

CaerphillY:
Lab 55.3
PC 30.9
UKIP 10.4
LD 3.4


East Riding:
Con 53.5
UKIP 21.8
Lab 20.2
Ind 4.5


Perth & Kinross:
SNP 43.2
Con 38.9
Lab 7.9
LD 6.8
UKIP 3.2

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 6, 2016 23:51:28 GMT petewhitehead said:

East Riding of Yorkshire UA - Pocklington Provincial

Con   44.6%
Ind    23.6%
Lab   17.9%
UKIP 13.9%


Perth & Kinross - Almond & Earn

SNP  47.3%
Con  33.8%
Lab    8.9%
LD     7.1%
UKIP 2.9%


Caerphilly CC - Ynysddu

Lab    55.6%
PC     27.4%
UKIP 15.2%
LD      1.8%

[carlton43]

Perth Seat. If the Conservative candidate is a well-known local and can marshal the anti-SNP vote as only man likely, then I think this could be an upset and if it is then it will be an indicator of a ground movement for a little later.

[maxque]

Apr 7, 2016 10:30:26 GMT carlton43 said:

Perth Seat. If the Conservative candidate is a well-known local and can marshal the anti-SNP vote as only man likely, then I think this could be an upset and if it is then it will be an indicator of a ground movement for a little later.

The candidate is a former councillor for Kinross-shire who lost her seat in 2012 (but she lives in Almond and Earn, it seems).

[Tony Otim]

Apr 7, 2016 10:30:26 GMT carlton43 said:

Perth Seat. If the Conservative candidate is a well-known local and can marshal the anti-SNP vote as only man likely, then I think this could be an upset and if it is then it will be an indicator of a ground movement for a little later.

I don't think it would indicate all that much - in 2007 the Conservatives had a 16% lead in this ward. The now departed indy took a fair chunk of the Tory vote with them, so some level of Tory recovery is inevitable. I can't see them being 16% ahead and even when they were in 2007 they still lost the constituency by a good 7%.

[carlton43]

Thanks for the feed back. On that basis and on knowing the patch a bit and the current mood, I call it for the Conservatives, yet note none of the regular experts have done so?

[lennon]

Apr 7, 2016 10:53:40 GMT carlton43 said:

Thanks for the feed back. On that basis and on knowing the patch a bit and the current mood, I call it for the Conservatives, yet note none of the regular experts have done so?

Here's hoping you're right...

[carlton43]

Apr 7, 2016 11:25:51 GMT lennon said:

Apr 7, 2016 10:53:40 GMT carlton43 said:

Thanks for the feed back. On that basis and on knowing the patch a bit and the current mood, I call it for the Conservatives, yet note none of the regular experts have done so?

Here's hoping you're right...

Do we know if they count tonight?

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 7, 2016 10:44:17 GMT maxque said:

Apr 7, 2016 10:30:26 GMT carlton43 said:

Perth Seat. If the Conservative candidate is a well-known local and can marshal the anti-SNP vote as only man likely, then I think this could be an upset and if it is then it will be an indicator of a ground movement for a little later.

The candidate is a former councillor for Kinross-shire who lost her seat in 2012 (but she lives in Almond and Earn, it seems).

When I looked at the SOPN last night, three of the candidates addresses were withheld 'for internet purposes' or some such nonsense I have never seen before. The Tory candidate appeared to give an address of a constituency office

[lennon]

Apr 7, 2016 14:24:49 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Apr 7, 2016 10:44:17 GMT maxque said:

The candidate is a former councillor for Kinross-shire who lost her seat in 2012 (but she lives in Almond and Earn, it seems).

When I looked at the SOPN last night, three of the candidates addresses were withheld 'for internet purposes' or some such nonsense I have never seen before. The Tory candidate appeared to give an address of a constituency office

Just looked that up myself (SOPN here: www.pkc.gov.uk/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=35277&p=0) - that is utterly ridiculous. (The actual wording is: "Not released for internet purposes"). I can only assume that what they mean is the one on the website is withheld, but the paper one which is posted outside the town hall has them on. Quite why I have no idea.

I think that the other one is the funniest - listed as "Control Tower, Perth Airport"

[maxque]

Apr 7, 2016 14:24:49 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Apr 7, 2016 10:44:17 GMT maxque said:

The candidate is a former councillor for Kinross-shire who lost her seat in 2012 (but she lives in Almond and Earn, it seems).

When I looked at the SOPN last night, three of the candidates addresses were withheld 'for internet purposes' or some such nonsense I have never seen before. The Tory candidate appeared to give an address of a constituency office

I'm aware. She said on her campaign Facebook account she lives in Abernethy, through, and she was the councillor for the old Abernethy & Glenfarg seat. Most of it went to Kinross-shire, but Abernethy itself is in Almond and Earn, if I remember well.