By-elections - March 31st

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Clacton East counting tomorrow, it seems:

[Pimpernal]

Mar 31, 2016 22:49:30 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Clacton East counting tomorrow, it seems:

To have got all those people there to verify the votes it seems odd to then reconvene for the count the next day... surely another half hour would have been enough to actually do the count?

Still - at least people can now wonder whether they needed the over night to ensure the result goes the right way...

[timmullen1]

Apr 1, 2016 5:18:04 GMT Pimpernal said:

Mar 31, 2016 22:49:30 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Clacton East counting tomorrow, it seems:

To have got all those people there to verify the votes it seems odd to then reconvene for the count the next day... surely another half hour would have been enough to actually do the count?

Though that Tweet is timed at 11.07am yesterday, so would've meant keeping them a further 11 hours before polling closed (not to say that they couldn't have brought them back later of course).

[maxque]

Holland-on-Sea RA GAIN over Tendring First in Clacton, it seems (not 100% about the source, through).

HoSRA 1781 (46.8%)
UKIP 961 (25.2%; +0.4)
Con 628 (16.5%; -12.3)
Lab 387 (10.2%; -0.5)
LD 49 (1.3%; -0.4)

[maxque]

If those numbers are true, it's a calamitous week for Conservatives (their best result being 23% in Richmond).

[Davıd Boothroyd]

For today, perhaps wait until official confirmation.

[Deleted]

Apr 1, 2016 9:34:25 GMT maxque said:

Holland-on-Sea RA GAIN over Tendring First in Clacton, it seems (not 100% about the source, through).

HoSRA 1781 (46.8%)
UKIP 961 (25.2%; +0.4)
Con 628 (16.5%; -12.3)
Lab 387 (10.2%; -0.5)
LD 49 (1.3%; -0.4)

maybe right as tendring council feed announce win for RA

[maxque]

Apr 1, 2016 9:39:34 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

For today, perhaps wait until official confirmation.

Tendring DC confirms it's a Holland-on-Sea Resident Association GAIN.

[Pete Whitehead]

Given only less than half the electorate are actually in Holland on sea that is an incredibly strong performance for them. They are of course utterly dominant in Holland on Sea but must have won a decent vote in the other two wards (if this result is correct)

[Deleted]

Apr 1, 2016 9:50:15 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Given only less than half the electorate are actually in Holland on sea that is an incredibly strong performance for them. They are of course utterly dominant in Holland on Sea but must have won a decent vote in the other two wards (if this result is correct)

link

seems correct

[Robert Waller]

Unfortunately (for my fortunes in the prediction competition as well as the Conservative Party)
I don't think this result is a function of today's date.

[john07]

Mar 31, 2016 21:59:51 GMT timmullen1 said:

CON: 7

Presumably there were ten signatories to the nomination papers. How can you get as low as 7 votes?

[dazza]

Colin Sargeant is an excellent chap, known him for years.He will be a really dedicated Councillor.To win a seat like Clacton East when you are standing for a Residents Association that only represents part of the ward (geographically) is a really big achievement.I gather he worked REALLY hard.

[piperdave]

Apr 3, 2016 1:43:16 GMT john07 said:

Mar 31, 2016 21:59:51 GMT timmullen1 said:

CON: 7

Presumably there were ten signatories to the nomination papers. How can you get as low as 7 votes?

You ate only signing to say this person is eligible to be a candidate. There is nothing that requires you to vote for them.

Indeed, in some Westminster elections, a candidate has only gotten 1 or 2 votes. Was it a Rainbow candidate in Cardiff in 2005? Someone will correct me no doubt.

[The Bishop]

Cardiff North in 2005, I believe.

However, there are suspicions this may have involved some vote miscounting.

(as with more recent instances of "zero votes" in local elections, viz a Tory candidate in Sedgefield and TUSC in Medway)

[maxque]

Apr 3, 2016 6:12:50 GMT dazza said:

Colin Sargeant is an excellent chap, known him for years.He will be a really dedicated Councillor.To win a seat like Clacton East when you are standing for a Residents Association that only represents part of the ward (geographically) is a really big achievement.I gather he worked REALLY hard.

I suppose the machine campaigned in Holland-on-Sea, while the candidate was trying to get votes in Clacton.

He had to do so. Doing calculations with ward electorates and turnout at 2015 local (because differential turnout), I find 47% of the division electors living in Holland. If RA did the same score than in 2015 with those (78%, which is dubious because those were straight RA-Con fights), they would still need to poll 19% in Clacton proper to get the result in % they got.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Holland is likely to have had a higher turnout, based on demographics. It's also probable that the winning candidate effectively relied upon the same coalition as the Oxleys did and potentially the organisation, if any of that still exists. Though that's just guesswork, because I haven't set foot in Clacton this year.

[maxque]

Apr 3, 2016 22:10:19 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Holland is likely to have had a higher turnout, based on demographics. It's also probable that the winning candidate effectively relied upon the same coalition as the Oxleys did and potentially the organisation, if any of that still exists. Though that's just guesswork, because I haven't set foot in Clacton this year.

I know than it's more likely to have higher turnout, it's why I considered 2015 local election turnout to get 47%. Without considering turnout, it would have been lower.

Tendring First seems a bit dead, their website is down, their Facebook not updated this year and their Twitter is only retweets of one of their councillors and from the Labour Essex PCC candidate, all anti-Conservative.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Apr 3, 2016 22:28:51 GMT maxque said:

Apr 3, 2016 22:10:19 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Holland is likely to have had a higher turnout, based on demographics. It's also probable that the winning candidate effectively relied upon the same coalition as the Oxleys did and potentially the organisation, if any of that still exists. Though that's just guesswork, because I haven't set foot in Clacton this year.

I know than it's more likely to have higher turnout, it's why I considered 2015 local election turnout to get 47%. Without considering turnout, it would have been lower.

Tendring First seems a bit dead, their website is down, their Facebook not updated this year and their Twitter is only retweets of one of their councillors and from the Labour Essex PCC candidate, all anti-Conservative.

Yes, but I think that underestimates the difference. Not everybody who votes in the general also votes locally, but a lot more do than will vote in a stand-alone election and I suspect the demographic aspect of this would make Holland a clear majority of the voters.

Tendring First was never really a single unit anyway, so much as the personal vehicles of its councillors. And Twitter is unlikely to be an accurate reflection of the performance of Tendring councillors of any stripe.