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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2016 17:23:02 GMT
The opposition is now clearly ahead according to the March 14-16 Realmeter poll. Sharp drop in undecideds.
Saenuri 40.7% (-3.4)
Minjoo 29.3% (+1.5)
Peoples 12.2% (+1.1)
Justice 7.8% (+2.1)
Others 3.7% (+1.5)
Undecided 6.3% (-2.8)
So 49.3-40.7. A bit surprising given the dissatisfaction with candidate selection, but that will likely become more of a turnout issue.
Metropolitan region:
Saenuri 36.5%
Minjoo 33.8%,
Peoples 10.2%
Justice 9.5%)
Chungcheong, Sejong, Daejeon:
Saenuri 40.6%
Minjoo 30.5%
Peoples 16.2%
Justice 5.9%
North Gyeongsang, Daegu:
Saenuri 71.4%
Minjoo 13.3%
Peoples 4.4%
Justice 2.6%
South Gyeongsang, Busan, Ulsan:
Saenuri 52.1%
Minjoo 23.6%
Peoples 7.0%
Justice 5.5%
Jeolla and Gwangju:
Peoples 34.2%
Minjoo 33.9%
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2016 17:28:41 GMT
Minjoo has proposed an electoral alliance between the three opposition parties in the capital region, but the People's Party have refused and threatened to expel anyone who accepts it on constituency level. Bad news for the opposition - it seems almost impossible for them to win without a joint list in Metro Seoul. There are currently multiple opposition candidates in 105 of 122 constituencies in the capital region. Justice has agreed to a joint list with Minjoo in principle, but wants a quota of the seats and for candidates to be decided by party leaders, whereas Minjoo wants a joint primary. Seems pretty stupid of Minjoo to offer Justice such a blatantly unfair deal. Time is running out because the ballot papers are being printed on April 4, so candidates who "withdraw" afterwards remain on the ballot. www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/03/116_201362.html |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2016 12:22:06 GMT
March 28 to April 1 Realmeter poll:
Saenuri 37.1 (-1.2)
Minjoo 26.2 (+1.3)
People's Party 14.8 (+0.8)
Justice Party 8.5 (nc)
Others 3.8 (-0.2)
Undecided 9.6 (-0.7)
Saenuri 37.1
Opposition 49.5
Capital Region:
Saenuri 35.4%
Minjoo 27.0%
Justice 13.7%
Peoples 11.4%
Opposition 52.1%
North Gyeongsan etc.
Saenuri 53.1% (-2.9)
Minjoo 9.4%
Peoples 9.6%
Justice 5.5%
Opposition 24.5 (-4.6). The opposition has gained 3.2% in Daegu, which is their best bid for seats. Former Saenuri independents are a big factor here.
South Gyeongsan etc.
Saenuri 43.2% (-4.6)
Minjoo 24.8%
Peoples 8.7%
Justice 6.7%
Opposition 40.2 %
Chungcheong etc.
Saenuri 38.5% (-5.7)
Minjoo 36.2%
Peoples 11.3%
Justice 6.6%
Opposition 54.1% (+12.2)
Jeolla & Gwangju:
Peoples 40.5%
Minjoo 32.6%
Both parties gained and it seems they will share all seats now.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2016 12:23:44 GMT
Some local polling: Minjoo leads in 20 Seoul City seats (they got 25 last time), while Saenuri's candidates are ahead in 28. People's leader Ahn Cheol-soo has the 49th. The opposition is now ahead in 8 of the 65 seats in Saenuri's traditional eastern strongholds: North and South Gyeongsan with the metro areas of Daegu, Busan and Ulsan. Saenuri's support is generally going down the most in its traditional home turf in the provincial center and east: North & South Gyeongsang and Chungcheong.  www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/04/116_201881.html |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2016 12:25:15 GMT
If it wasn't for vote splitting this would be an opposition landslide, but in reality it may be quite close.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2016 12:26:52 GMT
"Saenuri Party Chairman Kim Moo-sung announced Wednesday he will resign early from his chairmanship immediately following the April 13 general election. “I’m resigning early because I couldn’t keep my promise to conduct an open primary nomination process,” Kim said at the Kwanhun Club, an association of senior journalists. Kim added that he is taking responsibility for the “complete chaos” that ensued within the party with regard to the nomination process, which made the party appear “split in its mentality.” koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/Article.aspx?aid=3016913So less than two week before an election one of the two major parties is led by an interim leader and the other is led by a leader who is de facto interim because he has promised to step down after the election whether they win or lose. That is a quite a remarkable situation. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2016 9:37:34 GMT
 Former police officer Kwon Eun-hee, who is running for the People Party's in Gwangsan B down in Gwangju is in trouble over a campaign poster portraying her as an "assassin" targeting President Park Geun-hye with the text "Kwon Eun-hee is the one who will snipe Park Geun-hye." The poster also says Kwon's next "target" is the Special Committee for National Security Measures, which refers to Minjoo's interim head Kim Jong-in, who served the special committee in 1980 under former (authoritarian) president Chun Doo-hwan. Saenuri says the idea of "sniping the president" is inappropriate and asks whether this is the People's Party's idea of "new politics"? (their slogan) Kwon's campaign dropped the poster after the criticism and the party's spokeswoman apologized, but its still spread online through social networks. Kwon was fired from the Seoul police for allegedly committing perjury in a case against the former chief of the Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency, saying he obstructed an investigation of the National Intelligence Service's meddling in the 2012 presidential election. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 5, 2016 9:39:24 GMT
You've posted this thrice over now!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2016 22:06:07 GMT
Early voting started Friday. First GE you can just go into a polling station anywhere in the country and vote - if its not in your home district they will mail it afterwards. This should increase turnout. Turnout was highest in opposition strongholds on the first day. Lowest in the big cities: www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/04/116_202228.htmlFriday turnout 4.46% (4 pm) South Jeolla Province 7.78% North Jeolla Province 6.86% Seoul 3.96% Incheon 3.82% Busan 3.61% |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2016 22:06:31 GMT
New Realmeter poll conducted April 4-6.
Approval rating for President Park in opposition stronghold Jeolla and Gwangju has fallen to a record low 15.9% (▼ 5.9%, 21.8% → 15.9%). Long time since a Korean president had such low approval ratings anywhere. Also interesting that her approval among self-described moderate Conservatives is now below 40% (▼6.5%, 43.9% → 37.4%).
Regarding the actual election both the big opposition parties are gaining and Saenuri is close to only getting a third of the vote. Justice is dropping in Seoul, likely due to fear of vote splitting and because they have withdrawn in favor of Minjoo from certain constituencies, but gains elsewhere keeps their national vote stable.
Saenuri 34.4% (▼2.7%)
Minjoo 27.3% (▲1.1%)
People's 16.8% (▲ 2.0%)
Justice 8.3% (▼ 0.2%)
Capital region:
Saenuri 33.1 (-2.3)
Minjoo 31.2 (+4.2)
People's 13.7 (nc)
Justice 11.4 (-1.4)
Opposition: 54.9 vs. Saenuri 33.1. Minjoo close to tying Saenuri on their own.
Chungcheong etc::
Saenuri 40.4% (+1.9)
Minjoo 26.7% (-9.5)
People's 12.0% (+0.7)
Justice 7.4% (+0.8)
The opposition is down 8.0% to 46.1% vs. Saenuri at 40.4%. Local infighting seems to be behind the drop for Minjoo.
North Gyeongsan etc.
Saenuri 46.0% (-7.1)
Minjoo 13.6% (+4.2)
People's 12.9 (+3.3)
Justice 7.0% (+1.5)
Opposition 33.5 vs. Saenuri 46.0%. A gap of only 12.5% in this Conservative stronghold is unprecedented.
South Gyeongsan etc.:
Saenuri 42.2% (-1.0)
Minjoo 25.6% (+0.8)
People's 11.6 (+2.9)
Justice 5.4 (-1.3)
Opposition 42.6 vs. Saenuri 42.2, so a tie in a historically strong Conservative region.
Jeolla & Gwangju:
People's 50.8% (+10.3)
Minjoo 21.2% (-11.4)
People's may win it all in the SW now. Opposition to Moon Jae-in visiting the region seems to have caused the drop due to his unpopularity. Apparently his new nickname down there is Moon Jae-"half" (反).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2016 22:07:45 GMT
Despite the vote splitting risk this election looks like an opposition win now. The Liberal inroads into historically conservative areas is impressive, and the results in some of the big eastern cities will be very interesting.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2016 18:16:59 GMT
Election day starts in a little less than 3 hours and runs from 6AM to 6PM KST, which is GMT UCT +9. Voters will cast ballots at 13,837 polling stations. Exit polls to be expected shortly after the polls close. www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/04/116_202464.htmlTurnout is estimated to be higher than the previous general election, where it was 54.2%. In a Research&Research survey requested by the NEC showed 66.6 percent of 1,500 respondents said they would vote. Gallup Korea has expected turnout for voters in their 50s and those 60+ dropping to respectively 75% and 80% while expected turnout for voters in their 20s rose to from 62% to 71%. - "Only when voter turnout goes way above 60 percent, is there the likelihood of a slight positive impact on the opposition camp." In a last ditch attempt to shore up support the government has disclosed details of the defection of 13 North Koreans. Though given that both Kim Jong-in and Ahn have a tough attitude towards North Korea, this is unlikely to work. There has been a poll ban in effect since April 7, so unclear how the dynamic was in the last week. And early voting will be a factor anyway this time. Other pollsters disagree with Realmeter and has Saenuri further ahead, but lets see. With a high turnout the centre-left should do well. Especially if it goes down among older voters and up among young.  |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2016 9:49:35 GMT
Exit polls:
KBS TV
Saenuri 121-143
Minjoo 101-123
People's Party 34-41
Justice Party 5-6.
MBC TV showed the ruling party winning between
Saenuri 118-136 seats against the
Minjoo 107-128 seats. An
SBS TV
Saenuri 123-147
Minjoo Party securing 97-120
Independent candidates are expected to win between 8-20 seats.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2016 15:12:12 GMT
Constituency seats distribution at the moment:
Saenuri
109/253
Minjoo
106/253
Peoples
25/253
Justice
2/253
Independents
11/253
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2016 15:13:26 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2016 16:31:06 GMT
The left-right order of the region on the page are: Seoul Busan Daegu Incheon Gwangju Daejeon Ulsan Sejong Gyeonggi (around the capital) Gangwon North Chungcheong South Chungcheong North Jeolla South Jeolla North Gyeongsang South Gyeongsang Jeju |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2016 20:03:51 GMT
Current constituency distribution:
Minjoo 110
Saenuri 104
Peoples 26
Justice 2
Indies 11
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2016 20:11:02 GMT
It seems the pro-Park faction did especially bad in Saenuri's defeat, which will weaken her further.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2016 21:52:26 GMT
It seems like almost all constituencies are counted:
Minjoo 110
Saenuri 105
Peoples 25
Justice 2
Indies 11
All list seats distributed:
Saenuri 17
Peoples 13
Minjoo 13
Justice 4
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2016 22:10:48 GMT
Final result:
Minjoo 123
Saenuri 122
Peoples 38
Justice 6
Indies 11
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