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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 23:04:15 GMT
South Korea elects a new parliament on April 13.
Four main parties are running: A Conservative (pro-American, elitist, technocratic (and somewhat authoritarian) with a stronghold in the heavily industrialized East; a "Liberal" (more accommodating towards North Korea, patriotic, in favor of a more independent foreign policy, civil rights and democratization with its core area in the agrarian SW; a populist, "radical centre"/Third Way/regionalist outfit founded in January and led by Ahn Cheol-soo (53), a physician and academic turned successful IT entrepreneur; and a Progressive (aka left wing) backed by the independent trade unions, focused on labour rights, redistribution and an anti-American foreign policy. Korean parties change composition and names quite often, but the basic "three tradition" pattern is very stable. The current female President is Conservative and increasingly authoritarian - United Progressive Party, the more old school leftist party from which JP split in 2012, was banned in 2014 (the Justice Party "inherited" their support from the radical trade unions from them).
There is a strong SW/E divide and the capitol region with little under half the population is the swing area in Korean politics. Currently 253 seats are elected by FPTP and 47 on block lists using PR. Talks about Minjoo and Justice running on a joint list to avoid vote splitting have so far not led to a result.
Poll from mid-February:
Saenuri ("New Frontier") (Conservatives) 39.7 Minjoo Party ("United Democratic Party") (Social Liberal) 25.9 People's Party (party of Third Wayish IT-guy) 12.9 Justice Party (Progressive/Social Demcratic) 5.7 Others (primarily independents) 3.4 Undecided 12.4
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 23:04:53 GMT
Two last elections. LFP has merged into Saenuri and UPP (United Progressive Party) was the leftists.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 23:06:09 GMT
South Korea’s economy has become increasingly polarized, with inequality rising and its population aging, making an expansion of public welfare a central issue.
President Park ran on expanding ”welfare without raising taxes” (ie. corporate taxes) in 2012, but her administration increased taxes on tobacco and cars and de facto also the income tax through some technicalities, so the government has been accused of "taking from the working class", while failing to expand welfare.
Opposition leader Moon Jae-in wants to expand welfare by increasing corporate taxed, specifically on the reserves of the large family-run conglomerates (chaebol), that control most of the country’s economy and are increasingly blamed for holding back the economy.
Saenuri’s chairman Kim Moo-sung is on the right wing of his party and has gone back and forth between “excessive welfare would make people indolent” - "welfare is impossible without increasing taxes" and supporting the unpopular presidet and her “welfare without increasing taxes” (with tax hikes as a last resort) position. He seems not yet to have decided what position he will actually run on.
South Korean voters will only support an expansion of public welfare, if it means they do not have to pay higher taxes, but a slim majority are in favor of raising corporate taxes on the conglomerates.
South Korea has a single-term system, so the parliamentary election will in many ways be a dress rehearsal for the presidential election in 2017. With both party chairmen eyeing the presidency.
Moon Jae-in lost to Park in 2012. He is a former law firm partner with President Roh Moo Hyun (2003-08) and was his CoS. He is on the same wing of the party, which sees itself as heirs to the accommodating "Sunshine Policy" approach towards North Korea introduced by President Kim Dae-jung (1998-2003).
Both party leaders are from the second most populous city Busan in Gyeongsang province in the SE, which is usually Saenuri’s turf. And either winning or keeping this important city played a part in securing both men the leadership. At least on paper they belong to the left wing (or at least rhetorically more assertive wing) and right wing of their respective parties and this may mean more of an ideological element than usual.
EDIT: This post is a bit dated as Moon doesn't lead the party anymore (see later), but is kept because it describes general strategy. Moon is quite likely to stage a comeback and still favorite to become the oppositions presidential candidate (though the Mayor of Seoul is another contender from the more centrist wing of the party).
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 23:06:49 GMT
Moon and Roh before him tried to fight "regionalism", which more specifically means the SW and others southernes grip on the party - and the faction he led (the Roh loyalists) were accused of forcing "heterodox" factions out. The Roh loyalists tend to see themselves as mainstream and the others as the "regionalists" and heterodox.
The Honam-faction from Kim Dae-jungs home region in the SW (the stronghold of the party) left in January under one of K D-j old comrades (who is 85 now), saying Moon was too dictatorial and would not accept a leadership election.
Roh did various unpopular things while in office (trying to move the capital was one).
In 2003-08 the two factions had different parties, but they had to reunite in 2008 to have a chance. And there has been infighting since then.
The IT-entrepreneur Ahn Cheol-soo left the Minjoo Party in December and created the above mentioned People’s Party and his base in the SE, after his demand for a new leadership election was repeatedly rejected by Moon (they were rival candidates in the 2012 presidential elections) and Ahn withdrew from the race after being continually outmaneuvered by Moon. Then Moon was narrowly defeated by Park Geun-hye and Anh of course claimed he could have done better. He is now courting all those who have left Minjoo.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 23:07:16 GMT
Kim Jong-in who now chairs the "emergency committee" - which leads the party during the campaign - is a 75 year old German educated economist and a former lifelong Conservative, who only joined the other side after he for unknown reasons fell out with president Park Geun-hye after her victory in 2012. He was in her economic cabinet. He worked for General Chun Doo-hwan's government and Chun's Democratic Justice Party back in the 80s, so an odd provisional leader of the Liberals. But likely a compromise candidate as an outsider to the factions. There is some talk that Honam (in the SW), which has a strong regional identity and is the liberal’s traditional base (it was poor and underdeveloped, which partly was a result of the generals thinking it was an unreliable and undeserving area as it had been a leftist guerilla stronghold under the Korean War, which then again was a result of it being underdeveloped etc.). Local independents and local municipal politicians (all ex-Liberals) + the former governor of South Jeolla province, Park Jun-youn have been wanting to set up a regional party to wield more power. The People’s Reform Party (which then co-founded the People’s Party with Anh). The last election showed that the electorate in Honam aren’t simply going to vote for liberal candidates because that’s what they’ve historically done (ome Indies did really well and one of them, Chun Jung-bae won the city constituency in the main city Gwangju. They want results and that requires the ability to also influence a Conservative government and not be in seemingly perpetual opposition. This has then put the old Kim Dae-jung faction, which is Honam based, under pressure and now they have left. So we might see a Honam SNP on the ballot.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 23:08:41 GMT
The line of South Korean parties since the early 80s. Might be more confusing than helpful. One leader and his followers leave after losing some fight, then merge with their old enemies and maybe a third group a couple of years later, until there is another break-up and so on. But sometimes ideology is involved - especially on the left.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 23:09:19 GMT
Basically the story of the modern SK left starts with trade unionists founding a new leftist party called the Democratic Labor Party (DLP).
DPP was had three main pillars it was anti-imperialist, Democratic Socialist, and Korean nationalist (de facto left nationalist).
DLP got 13% in the 2004 election, which was shocking to he whole Conservative establishment.
A big part of DLP had sympathy for North Korea and thought the Workers Party of Korea in the north shared some basic nationalist elements with them.
Another part of DLP rejected the nationalist rhetoric of the party leadership. So two factions struggled for control a) the radical anti-imperialist nationalists, who sympathized with the north, and the anti-nationalist progressives that promoted social welfare and civil liberties (Social Democrats by European standards).
In 2007 DLP split and the anti-nationalists founded the New Progressive Party (NPP). In the 2008 elections DLP lost five seats and the new NPP failed to win any seats.
In late 2011 DLP fused with some ex-NPP members and a minor leftist party to form the Unified Progressive Party (UPP) in order to be able to compete
The new party was officially not Socialist, but "radical progressive" and left nationalist (though the leadership coming from the DLP tradition made it de facto a blend between Euro-Communism and Social Democracy as when the PCI started moderating). It was activist and very anti-American.
Then the government moved against the party and calling them a ”North Korean puppet”, ”pro-North Korean” etc. And the party was banned in December 2014 after the secret service of South Korea planted evidence, bribed party members etc.
The thing that unleashed the banning was most likely that UPP had exposed that former President Park Chung-hee had been a lieutenant into the Manchukuo Imperial Army in the Japanese puppet state in NE China under WW2 and thereby de facto a collaborator since it fought against Korean guerillas, which embarrassed his daughter President Park Geun-hy. But its virulent critique of American imperialism may also simply have been beyond the pale for the establishment.
Before the banning, the UPP had sufferd a split (like the DLP) over the nationalist question. UPP members who rejected Korean nationalism left (mostly Social Democrats) and formed their own party starting out as the Progressive Justice Party, which they changed to simply the Justice Party (JP) in July 2013, which was in the the social welfare/civil liberties Social Democratic tradition.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 23:10:16 GMT
Saenuri and Minjoo has reached an agreement to reduce the number of seats for proportional representatives from the current 54 to 47 in the upcoming general elections. The Minjoo Party is expected to take the biggest toll. If you base it on the last Realmeter poll the 47 seats will be allocated by 23:15:7:2 to Saenuri, Minjoo, People’s and Justice respectively, based on 41.7 percent for Saenuri, 26.7 percent for Minjoo, 11.7 percent for People’s, and 3.5 percent for Justice. So Saenuri lose four of 27 proportional seats, while Minjoo will lose six and the People’s Party gets 7. The Justice Party will lose four of its six PR seats in the National Assembly (and since they are unlikely to get any constituency seats thats bad news. The National Assembly Act allocates the PR seats to each party that acquired 3% or more in popular vote proportional to their vote. Many male politicians who were expecting nomination for the proportional seats are said to be in panic because both Saenuri and Minjoo decided to raise the ratio of female candidates on their PR lists to 60% in the upcoming elections, so its more difficult for male candidates to get a seat. Most constituency candidates are male, so the parties try to use their PR lists to get more women elected. .... In other news Minjoo are conducting a good old fashioned talking filibuster against the governments anti-terror law (which is predictably terrible and violates a number of civil rights). Having a US inspired political system leads to some quirky situations. "Day in and day out, the lawmakers of the main opposition Minjoo Party of Korea are staging the grueling process of filibusters to block the passage of the anti-terrorism bill during the regular session of the National Assembly, and President Park expressed her anger at the opposition party’s last gambit, pounding on her desk as many as 10 times. The situation is even more frustrating as there is no clear solution." Pounding on her desk.. Strong stuff! Even with the current 50% quotas (which are mandated by the Constitutional Court), only 49 members of the National Assembly are women. I'm pretty sure that means that only 22 out of the 246 directly elected seats are held by women, in other words only 8.9%, a number even lower than the noted sausage fest called known as the Japanese Diet. Increasing the percentage of women to 60% in the PR seats while getting rid of 7 of said seats effectively cancels out.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 23:11:39 GMT
Saenuri and Minjoo did agree on the electoral map six days ago. It will have 253 constituencies (+7) keeping the 300 member size of the National Assembly. All constituencies now have a population between 140,000 and 280,000 and thereby comply with the requirement from the Constitutional Court. The province around Seoul gains 8 seats and now has 60, which will increase its importance as the swing area even more.The parties agreed to scrap two seats in each of their strongholds: Gyeongsang (Saenuri) and Jeolla (Minjoo), and totally screw over rural areas and fishing communities by merging them with towns (ditching an electoral promise). www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/02/116_198780.html
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 23:13:11 GMT
The latest Realmeter poll (22-26/2) has Saenuri above their 42.8% 2012 result for the first time in more than a year. They are now polling at 43.5%. The Peoples Party has stopped dropping and is at 12.1 (11.7 last time), which is bad news for Minjoo, they really need them to drop further. Justice is at 4.7, up 1.2 from the last poll, while Minjoo is stalling at 26.7. Only 9.9% undecided now and 3.1 for Indies and micro parties.
Some regional results from the poll:
North (130):
Metropolitan area (Incheon, Seoul and Gyeonggi) with 122 seats: Saenuri 38.6% Minjoo 31.3% Justice 11.6% Peoples 6.4%
Gangwon isn't mentioned, likely because it only has 8 seats and they invariably goes to Saenuri.
Middle (52):
Chungcheong (incl. Sejong and Daejeon) with 27 seats: Saenuri 42.0% Minjoo 28.0% People's 11.4% Justice 2.7%
Daegu and Gyeongbuk (= North Gyeongsang) with 25 seats: Saenuri 68.7% Minjoo 9.2% Justice 3.5% People's 5.2%
South (71):
Jeolla & Gwangju with 28 seats: Peoples 32.1% Minjoo 29.0% (no numbers for the others down there, but a lot of the rest would go to independents - Jeju with three seats not included)
Busan, South Gyeongsang, Ulsan with 40 seats: Saenuri 57.5% Minjoo 22.0% People's 7.6% Justice 2.7%
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 23:14:32 GMT
Intro to the filibuster, which has long since set a new world record. www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/southkorea/12177283/filibuster-south-korea-intelligence-record.html"The marathon filibuster began last Tuesday and is being hailed as the world's longest - shattering the previous record of 57 hours set by Canada's New Democratic Party in 2011. Twenty-five politicians from the main opposition Minjoo Party and Justice Party have now spent more than 140 hours taking turns to hold the main floor of the parliament. The are demanding revisions to an anti-terrorism bill, pushed by the ruling conservative Saenuri Party, that would allow the National Intelligence Service (NIS) to collect a wide range of personal data - including phone records - on anyone suspected of posing a security threat." Realmeter thought Saenuri was gaining on opposition to the filibuster (+ security threats from the North), but not sure if they had polled it or were just interpreting the numbers. The pattern seems mainly to be undecideds breaking for Saenuri, not the opposition losing their own voters.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 23:15:21 GMT
South Korean growth has picked up a bit, but its driven by the domestic market and the government's various stimulus packages. Their export sector is still having big problems and it makes up 50% of the South Korean GDP. It is both due to devaluations in Japan and China, being at the top of the value chain so feeling every slump in the global economy + dropping oil prices as petroleum products is a significant part of their export. www.bbc.com/news/business-34612397www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21662952-steepest-year-drop-trade-2009-mark-sagging-global-demand-why-big-slumpThis will be central to the campaign. Broadly speaking the opposition is critical about the role of the conglomerates and think their dominance creates an inflexible economy and prevents entrepreneurship and innovation, while the right wing wants fewer life long employees and more part time workers (part time workers are a separate bottom of the barrel group in SK and even have their own trade union) + more wage caps ("peaks") to increase competitiveness. This is already an ongoing proces, but it creates poverty and raises issues about whether SK should have a more developed welfare state. More on the fringe the Greens are allied with a campaign for a basic income model to improve conditions for the underemployed and other poor groups.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 23:16:08 GMT
Realmeter poll from early March with lowest People's and best Minjoo numbers since the People's Party was launched. Its a tie between the three opposition parties with 44.0 combined and Saenuri with 43.7, so the distribution will be crucial (I will look at the regional breakdown later). Saenuri 43.7 Minjoo 28.0 People's 11.5 Justice 4.5 Other 3.6 Undecided 8.7 Regional results from the poll - the party that gains the most is bolded.The general picture is that Peoples are going down in the central regions, but with regional differences as to who benefits from it. Saenuri is gaining in the capital region and the central west, but losing in the SE. While Minjoo is gaining in the traditional Conservative strongholds in the east. Generally this poll indicates a more efficient vote distribution for the opposition (even if you can't tell for sure without constituency polling). North (130):
Metropolitan area (Incheon, Seoul and Gyeonggi) with 122 seats: Saenuri 40.2 (38.6)Minjoo 31.3 (31.7) Justice 11.0 (11.6) Peoples 5.6 (6.4) Gangwon isn't mentioned, likely because it only has 8 seats and they invariably goes to Saenuri Middle (52):
Chungcheong (incl. Sejong and Daejeon) with 27 seats: Saenuri 49.3 (42.0)Minjoo 28.0 (28.0) People's 5.6 (11.4) Justice 3.2 (2.7) Daegu and Gyeongbuk (= North Gyeongsang) with 25 seats: Saenuri 69.8 (68.7) Minjoo 14.3 (9.2)Justice 3.4 (3.5) People's 2.1 (5.2) South (71):Jeolla & Gwangju with 28 seats: Peoples 33.4 (32.1)Minjoo 29.5 (29.0) (no numbers for the others down there, but a lot of the rest would go to independents - Jeju with three seats not included) Busan, South Gyeongsang, Ulsan with 40 seats: Saenuri 51.6 (57.5) Minjoo 26.6 (22.0)People's 6.7 (7.6) Justice 2.3 (2.7)
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2016 12:13:09 GMT
"The top 10% of South Korea’s income earners are taking home nearly half of all income, a new report shows. This is the highest concentration of income among any comparable Asian country. In order to decrease income concentration, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) is calling for an aggressive fiscal policy."(so even the IMF thinks SK is too unequal..) “The duality between regular and non-regular employment has been a key driver of inequality. While duality can keep unemployment low, non-regular workers typically earn less, and receive fewer training opportunities and lower social insurance coverage.” english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/735462.html
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2016 12:28:03 GMT
Fierce infighting over the candidate list in Saenuri between the pro-Park faction and party chairman Kim Moo-sung, who accused the Nominations Committee of violating party rules, and postponed the approval of the candidate list at a Supreme Council meeting Wednesday. The nominations earlier this week excluded most incumbents affiliated to former president Lee Myung-bak (74-years old and in office 2008-13) and now led by the partys former "floor boss" (= chief whip) Yoo Seong-mon, who is a leading critic of President Park, while basically all Park-loyalists got on it. 87 of 149 candidates on the list are pro-Park. Yoo Seong-min failed to get on the list and now says the anti-Park faction might form an alliance and run as independents. There are more than two factions in Saenuri, so it won't split them down the middle, but in Lee Myung-bak's home region North Gyeongsang it could be quite serious. Though, even if Minjoo has been gaining a bit they are at 14-15%, so even with a split Conservative vote it will be hard to gain seats, but perhaps they can take one or two in the Saenuri heartland. (as a leading student politician Lee Myung-bak was arrested for participating in a demonstrations against President Park Chung-hee (beloved father of you know who). He got a three year sentence for "plotting insurrection", but only served three months) www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/03/116_200610.htmlwww.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/03/116_200545.htmlAlso strong criticism of the President for de facto campaigning for Saenuri during official visits.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2016 12:29:32 GMT
Realmeter March 7-11:
Saenuri 44.1 (+0.4) Minjoo 27.8 (-0.2) Peoples 11.1 (-0.4) Justice 5.7 (+1.2) Other 2.2 (-1.4) Undecid 9.1 (+0.4)
No big changes, but Peoples on their lowest level so far (though only down 0.4 from the last), Justice is back up to their December level and the micro parties/Indies are declining (which could be anything from a coincidence to a consolidation of the left wing vote). Still 9.1% undecided (8.7 last poll).
Still a tie between the two sides: Saenuri 44.1 Opposition 44.6
Regional distribution:
Capital region: Saenuri 49.6% Minjoo 32.2% Peoples 10.2% Justice 7.4%
North Gyeongsang, Daegu: Saenuri 70.8% Minjoo 11.5% Peoples 3.8% Justice 2.3%
South Gyeongsang, Busan, Ulsan Saenuri 59.8% Minjoo 19.2% Peoples 5.7% Justice 5.0%
Chungcheong, Daejeon, Sejong: Minjoo 28.5% Peoples 11.7% Justice 3.0%
Gwangju and Jeolla: Peoples 31.8% Minjoo 38.9%
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2016 19:12:35 GMT
The nomination process in the two big opposition parties is nearly finished and the factional status for their three potential 2017 presidential candidates Moon Jae-in (Minjoo), Ahn Cheol-soo (PP), and Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon (Minjoo) are: Moon (leader of the "Roh legacy"-faction) failed to get former PM under the Roh administration Lee Hae-chan nominated, but otherwise had a good result. Ahn's allies within his fragmented party also survived the nomination process. Mayor Park was the big loser in Minjoo. Of his 10-12 nominated aides only Deputy Mayor Ki Dong-min made the cut. The result is viewed as a barometer for the 2017 presidential race, and it looks like Park simply hasn't got the internal support to prevent a Moon candidacy. Even if Moon currently isn't party leader, it seems he still has by far the widest support base within Minjoo. Ahn seems closer to uniting what is a hotchpotch of southern councillors, regionalists, co-opted businessmen, allies from Minjoo etc. and he will probably have enough internal unity to mount a presidential bid. Selecting candidates less than a month before the election amidst fierce factional battles - throwing out long term incumbents and political heavyweights left and right because they are "symbols" of the other side and "those bastards" can't have it all - is very Korean. Dunno of anywhere else where they do it quite like that. www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/03/116_200675.html
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2016 17:40:09 GMT
Realmeter poll (with a MoE on 3.1) on satisfaction with candidate selection. Saenuri supporters are generally satisfied, while Minjoo and Peoples voters are dissatisfied - most so in Seoul and the rest of the metropolitan area, where Mayor Parks supporters are obviously unhappy with the deselection of a lot of their top names, but Peoples supporters are just as mad. Might affect turnout.
Saenuri supporters: Very satisfied 19.3 Satisfied 41.0 ——————— Dissasisfied 18.2 Very dissatisfied 7.7%
Minjoo supporters: Very satisfied 3.9% Satisfied 28.3% ———————- Dissatisfied 30.8 Very dissatisfied 18.1%
Peoples supporters: Very satisfied 3.1% Satisfied 20.5% ———————— Dissatisfied 34.5% Very dissatisfied 18.2%
Satisfied vs. dissatisfied for various sub-groups (adding the "very" to the ordinary satisfied and dissatisfied)
Saenuri:
Region:
Chungcheong, Daejeon: 62.4% vs. 16.5%
Gyeongnam, Busan, Ulsan: 61.8% vs 24.5%
Daegu: 56.7% vs 30.1%
Metropolitan area: 58.2% vs 28.9%
Age: 30s 60.5% vs 24.4% 40s 62.7% vs 30.6% 50s 61.7% vs 24.4% 60+ 61.2% vs 21.8% (no mentioning of 19-29, but they are apparently the least satisfied)
Ideologi: Conservatives: 67.8% vs 22.5% Centrists: 54.5% vs 31.7%
So right wingers more satisfied than self-described moderates.
Minjoo:
Metropolitan area: 29.7% vs 55.5%!
Gyeongnam, Busan, Ulsan: 29.3% vs 38.1%
Daegu: 29.6% vs 36.3%
Jeolla and Gwangju: 40.2% vs 41.6%
Age: 20s. 24.4% vs 50.1% 30 s. 36.1% vs 44.8% 40s 30.6% vs 57.5% 50s 39.3% vs 52.8% 60+ 39.0% vs 33.0%
Ideologi: Progressives: 23.9% vs 58.5% (!) Centrists: 34.1% vs 46.6%
Peoples:
Jeolla and Gwangju: 48.1% vs 27.8%
Metropolitan area 10.4% vs. 60.4% (!)
60+ 24.0% vs 49.0% (highest share of dissatisfied - no other age groups given)
Ideologi: Progressives: 19.1% vs 46.6% Centrists: 23.6% vs 57.0%
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2016 22:05:26 GMT
I forgot about the filibuster. It was cut short by 8 days and ended with the anti-terror bill passing. So 192 hours non-stop talking by 38 MPs and a new world record, but to no avail. The general assumption seems to be it ended up harming the opposition with the voters, though young people seem to have viewed it positively. www.affairstoday.co.uk/192-hours-what-one-filibuster-in-south-korea-has-brought-to-its-political-sphere/"Even though the bill is supposed to protect people from terrorism, the problem is that the definition of “terrorism” in this bill is not very clear and can be manipulated as needed by the government."
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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2016 17:22:16 GMT
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