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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 19, 2016 22:22:42 GMT
Are you planning to ignore most of Middlesex?
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Post by greenhert on Mar 19, 2016 23:38:33 GMT
No, Pete Whitehead, I am not. I just needed to rethink my solutions to Middlesex (and Hammersmith & Fulham) due to the awkward ward sizes of the various boroughs, especially regarding cross-borough constituencies.
1. Ruislip-Northwood. The Hillingdon wards of Northwood, Northwood Hills, Eastcote & East Ruislip, West Ruislip, Harefield, Manor, Cavendish, Ickenham, and South Ruislip. Electorate: 72,471.
2. Uxbridge & Hayes. The Hillingdon wards of Uxbridge North/South, Brunel, Yiewsley, Pinkwell, Botwell, Hillingdon East, Townfield, and Charville. Electorate: 78,218.
3. Brentford & Isleworth. The current Brentford & Isleworth constituency minus Osterley & Spring Grove ward. Electorate: 72,066.
4. Greenford & Northolt. The Ealing wards of Northolt Mandeville/West End, Greenford Green, North Greenford, Greenford Broadway and Lady Margaret, and the Hillingdon wards of Yeading and Barnhill. Electorate: 72,829.
5. Willesden & Shepherd's Bush. The Brent wards of Queen's Park, Kilburn, Willesden Green, Brondesbury Park, Kensal Green, and Harlesden, plus the Hammersmith & Fulham wards of Shepherd's Bush Green, Askew, College Park & Old Oak, and Wormholt & White City. Electorate: 77,279.
6. Hammersmith & Fulham. All Hammersmith & Fulham wards except for Shepherd's Bush Green, College Park & Old Oak, Wormholt & White City, and Askew. Electorate: 77,725.
7. Feltham & West Drayton. The Hillingdon wards of West Drayton, and Heathrow Villages, plus the Hounslow wards of Cranford, Bedfont, Hanworth, Hanworth Park, Hounslow West, and Feltham North/West. Electorate: 71,823.
8. Ealing Central & Acton. The Ealing wards of East Acton, South Acton, Acton Central, Southfield, Ealing Common, Walpole, Northfield, Ealing Broadway, and half of Hanger Hill ward. Electorate: 75,060 (estimate).
9. Wembley South & Perivale. The Brent wards of Tokyngton, Wembley Central, Sudbury and Alperton, plus the Ealing wards of Hanger Hill (half), Perivale, Cleveland, and Hobbayne. Electorate: 77,705 (estimate).
10. Southall & Heston. The Ealing wards of Southall Broadway, Dormers Wells, Elthorne, Norwood Green and Southall Green, and the Hounslow wards of Heston Central/East/West and Osterley & Spring Grove. Electorate: 78,504.
11. Wembley North. The Brent wards of Kenton, Northwick Park, Mapesbury, Dollis Hill, Fryent, Preston, Barnhill, Welsh Harp, and Dudden Hill. Electorate: 76,525.
12. Harrow West. The Harrow wards of Pinner, Pinner South, Headstone North/South, Harrow-on-the-Hill, Roxbourne, Roxeth, West Harrow, Rayners Lane, and Hatch End. Electorate: 76,393.
13. Harrow East. The Harrow wards of Marlborough, Harrow Weald, Wealdstone, Greenhill, Queensbury, Kenton East/West, Belmont, and Stanmore Park, plus the Brent ward of Queensbury. Electorate: 78,141.
14. Hendon & Edgware. The Harrow wards of Canons and Edgware, and the Barnet wards of Edgware, Colindale, Hale, Burnt Oak, Hendon, and West Hendon. Electorate: 74,408.
15. Finchley & Golders Green. As the current Finchley & Golders Green constituency plus Mill Hill ward. Electorate: 78,011.
16. Chipping Barnet. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 72,480.
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 7, 2016 17:25:42 GMT
Crossposted from another forum (where I'll be talking to myself) in London Bromley 3.02 - should be 3 seats (currently 3.5 undersized seats) Bexley 2.21, Greenwich 2.15, Lewisham 2.24, Southwark 2.50 should be thrown together for 9 seats. At moment Dulwich & W Norwood (cross the Southwark-Lambeth line) is the only seat on target and the other two Southwark seats are too large. Everything else is quite a bit too small Lambeth 2.52, Wandsworth 2.69, Merton 1.74 - 7 seats (down .5) Vauxhall is rightsized and should remain unchanged. Tooting is also rightsized. Croydon 3.13, Sutton 1.82 - combining these is a nobrainer, though how it's done exactly will be interesting. Croydon N and S currently both oversized, C on target. Kingston 1.40, Richmond 1.69 and all three seats currently legal. This is a godsend and if anyone tries to tinker with it to win through their own ideas they should be drummed out of the Civil Service. So no need to cross the Thames. The same can't be said of the River Lea though.  Havering 2.37, Barking 1.49, Redbridge 2.38, Waltham Forest 2.08, Newham 2.27 (so the whole of Essex London) and at least Enfield 2.57 need to be thrown together. Hornchurch & Upminster, Barking, Ilford South currently of legal size (but only Barking might conceivably survive because the alternative of what to do with Dagenham is too dreadful to contemplate), East Ham and West Ham hugely, hugely oversized Tower Hamlets 2.02, Hackney 1.98 and 4 rightsized constituencies. Actually these are two of the three London boroughs with new ward maps, but minimum change works out fine (and is genuinely quite minor). Westminster 1.49, City 0.08, Kensington 1.02, Hammersmith 1.41 to be combined losing an entire seat. Not sure how that'll work out in detail. Alternately Kensington & Chelsea could be its own seat and Westminster combined with Islington and Camden, but that creates serious issues with Hammersmith. Islington 1.74, Camden 1.74, Haringey 1.89, Barnet 2.79 probably to be thrown together. Holborn & St Pancras is huge, Hampstead (crosses into Brent), Hornsey & Wood Green and Chipping Barnet are of legal size. The last should survive. Might be possible to combine Tottenham with Essex London/Enfield instead which would allow Hornsey & Wood Green to emerge unscathed, but that would require very oversized seats here. Hounslow 2.13, Ealing 2.79 thrown together is obvious. Hounslow seats are too large, Ealing N is fine, Southall is much too small (and Acton a bit). Brent 2.44, Harrow 2.15, Hillingdon 2.46 are what's left and also fit together. Ruislip etc and Brent C currently on target but cannot remain unchanged.
So... I've managed to actually draw North London with no split wards (though I would suggest a minorish alteration to dramatically better the map in one area by introducing a ward split). This is amazing to me. I managed to save both Barking and Hornchurch & Upminster. Most of the map is quite minimum-changey, really, except for the Lea crossing seat of course. Which also throws Iain Duncan Smith to the dogs.  I did include Haringey here as well.  1 Hornchurch & Upminster 78064, unchanged 2 Barking 72314, unchanged 3 Dagenham & Rainham 71429, loses Chadwell Heath ward at the northern end, gains Hylands ward in Havering 4 Romford & Chadwell Heath 76686, Romford loses Hylands but gains Chadwell Heath and Chadwell wards. These are two orphan wards (belonging to Barking & Dagenham and Redbridge respectively), but form a single neighborhood as far as I can see. (Certainly the wikipedia article on "Chadwell Heath" is about both.) 5 Ilford South 78358, loses Chadwell but gains Aldborough 6 Woodford & Ilford North 74283, Ilford N loses Aldborough but gains Monkhams and Church End, reuniting Woodford in one constituency 7 East Ham 76731, loses the Royal Docks 8 West Ham 75729, gains Royal Docks but loses the two Forest Gate wards 9 Leyton, Wanstead & Forest Gate 77404, Leyton & Wanstead gains Forest Gate. Much as I dislike commas in constituency names, it seems importune not to do it here. 10 Walthamstow 71982, gains Hale End & Highams Park ward 11 Enfield North 74422, gains Ponders End ward 12 Enfield Southgate 72787, gains Bush Hill Park ward 13 Tottenham 75962, gains Upper Edmonton ward 14 Hornsey & Wood Green 77400, unchanged 15 Chingford & Edmonton 75352, the dreaded cross Lea constituency. Certainly defendable given what a decent map it enables elsewhere. 5 Chingford and 4 Edmonton wards, 53% of the population from Chingford. Given just how safe Edmonton has become in recent years though this is a Labour-leaning seat. 16 Hackney N & Stoke Newington 75318 17 Hackney S & Shoreditch 73026 18 Bethnal Green & Bow 76868 19 Poplar & Limehouse 74283, minimum change to align with ward boundaries for all (stating this out of order because comment can stand alone). While remarkably there is a minimum fix of just adding Heston W to Southall and Turnham Green to Acton, this is very weird and breaks all sorts of community ties. Better to move Hounslow West to Brentford (uniting the Hounslow part of Hounslow) and all of Chiswick (Riverside, Homefields and Turnham Green) to Acton. As long as the Ealing wards are then split 8:8:6:1 (that goes into Brentford) there are all sorts of legal permutations and if a different one to that mapped here is locally preferred then go for it. So... after throwing Haringey in with East London, that argued for the Westminster-Islington-Camden grouping - provided that I could get Hammersmith-Brent-Harrow-Barnet-Hillingdon to work. That one was a bitch, and is the only part of this I actually drew in the boundary assistant rather than my oldfashioned way. The key to getting a legal map was in not crossing the Brent-Barnet line - that hadn't occurred to me at all. After that, I could play with Harrow and Brent wards to beat at least a semblance of sense into the horror that was my first legal map. Though I'm definitely not happy with northern Hillingdon.  20 Islington North 77241, gains Canonbury (Holloway is too large) 21 Hampstead & Highgate 77062, Highgate, Gospel Oak, Haverstock and those Camden wards in the current Hampstead and Kilburn, and the Abbey Road ward of Westminster 22 St Pancras & Islington South (or vice versa) 74017 the remaining Camden and Islington territory north of the Inner Ring Road, except Regent's Park ward 23 Westminster North? Regent's Park & Paddington? Paddington & Marylebone? 77042, Westminster North loses Abbey Road, gains Regent's Park and the three Westminster wards of Hyde Park, Bryanston & Dorset Square and Marylebone High Street (and far too many Tory voters for its current MP, I believe?) These three should be improved on by a very reasonable split of Camden Town with Primrose Hill ward, provided there are at least 3039 voters in Primrose Hill (otherwise, the ward split would have to be further west and not quite as reasonable). Hampstead & Highgate would include Primrose Hill instead of Abbey Road; St Pancras & Islington S would include Regent's Park instead of Primrose Hill; and Westminster N would include Abbey Road instead of Regent's Park. But this version works too. There are certainly worse seats out there. 24 Centre of London & Westminster 76221, Cities of etc loses three wards to the nortwest but gains Finsbury and the parts of Camden south of the Inner Ring Road 25 Kensington & Chelsea 76454, whole borough 26 Hammersmith & Fulham 77725, much like the 1997-2010 seat (missing four wards to the north) 27 Willesden (South?) & Shepherd's Bush 77082. If you want to include Mapesbury or Dudden Hill instead of Harlesden you can. 28 Chipping Barnet 72480, unchanged 29 Finchley & Golders Green 78011, gains Mill Hill 30 Hendon & Edgware 74408, loses Mill Hill but gains Edgware and Canons wards from Harrow 31 um... Brent Central? 78228, not a literal descendant of the current seat. A Preston-Alperton swap is possible. 32 Harrow South & Wembley West 73638, Harrow West loses Marlborough, Greenhill and Headstone, gains areas in Brent as far as Wembley C. I was thinking of "Harrow W & Wembley" at first, but the stadium is not in the constituency and a double naming of "West" is obviously anathema for aesthetical reasons. 33 Harrow Central & Kenton 77837, unites Kenton and Queensbury across the borough line 34 Harrow North & Northwood 77595, you can avoid the splitting of Headstone, but only by swapping Headstone North for Belmont, and this vague descendant of RN&P is elongated and disparate enough already... 35 Uxbridge & South Ruislip 75855, or & East Ruislip. Loses Yiewsley, gains Ickenham and Eastcote & East Ruislip. And yes, if you want to swap Ickenham for West Ruislip (uniting the Ruislip part of Ruislip) you can, but see comment at 34... 36 Hayes & Harlington 78097, Gains Yiewsley 37 Ealing North 73703, unchanged 38 Ealing Southall 73377, loses Northfields but gains Walpole and Ealing Broadway 39 Ealing Acton & Chiswick 74930, loses Walpole and Ealing Broadway, gains the three Chiswick wards 40 Brentford & Hounslow 75213, gains Hounslow W and Northfields, loses Chiswick 41 Feltham & Heston 71263, loses Hounslow W |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 7, 2016 17:58:05 GMT
'Centre of London' needs to include 'City of London' in its name since it includes the entire City of London in its boundaries; that is required by specific legislation which has not been dropped for this review.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 7, 2016 18:00:30 GMT
What you've done around Harrow and Brent is awful - Harrow South & Wembley West ?! - I presume this is all about trying to gerrymander Labour seats in the area, as is the Central London seat which is never going to be accepted as it contains parts of three boroughs and the City. There was enough of a row last time about it containing parts of two boroughs with the City
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 7, 2016 18:13:30 GMT
What you've done around Harrow and Brent is awful - Harrow South & Wembley West ?! - I presume this is all about trying to gerrymander Labour seats in the area no - I just mentioned effects in a few places, I didn't draw things because I wanted these effects (and there are huge parts of London where I have only the vaguest clue what the effects would even be). The last part of a map drawn tends to be the weakest. It's a feature of amateur mapdrawing, not a bug. As I said, there are a number of minor things that can be done to make it different - I wouldn't know what's best there. Provide a framework of what works within the rules and let the locals hash the details out. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 7, 2016 18:13:56 GMT
'Centre of London' needs to include 'City of London' in its name since it includes the entire City of London in its boundaries; that is required by specific legislation which has not been dropped for this review. That. is. hilarious. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 7, 2016 19:13:39 GMT
'Centre of London' needs to include 'City of London' in its name since it includes the entire City of London in its boundaries; that is required by specific legislation which has not been dropped for this review. That. is. hilarious. That was once true but is no longer. It was contained in the old rules which were replaced by the 2011 Act. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 7, 2016 19:27:24 GMT
49 – CROYDON NORTH AND NORWOOD (76208): This is more or less the successor to the current Croydon North seat, and it is the first of several seats that will link Croydon wards with parts of adjacent boroughs. This is necessary because Croydon ward electorates are such that no combination of seven wards can reach the lower limit, while any contiguous eight will exceed the upper limit (unless they contain the two smaller wards on New Addington). There are plenty combinations of seven Croydon wards that reach the lower limit. There's even at least one arrangement of Croydon wards into two seven ward constituencies and one eight ward constituency including New Addington. There are probably no such combinations that are particularly natural or pretty or reasonable, though. The issue is the concentration of the larger wards in the center of the borough. To demonstrate:  (Map not endorsed, obviously. But legal. If you do only one boundary crosser into Sutton, and use two Croydon wards for it, then they must be those two. And that constituency must also include the undersized Sutton South ward. What fun. God, I love this toy.) |
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Post by islington on Apr 7, 2016 20:27:00 GMT
The London thread springs to life after a long period of quiescence...
Regarding swix's plan, I'm not sure what problem he's trying to solve here. The boundary review process is supposed to have regard to LA boundaries, and all else being equal it must be very likely that an authority with an electorate within quota would be made a stand-alone seat, provided it doesn't get in the way of a satisfactory fit elsewhere. Why should K&C be any different?
As for minionofmidas, I'd take a more positive view of his scheme than Pete Whitehead did. There's some really good stuff here: treating Ealing and Hounslow together is an excellent idea, and the seats in this area are a lot better than in most other plans (certainly than mine). Even the rather awkward Feltham & Heston seat can be justified by the way it allows all of Hounslow town to be united in a seat - this is better than any other proposal I've seen for this area, and for that matter, better than the boundaries currently in use - and because it avoids a seat taking in territories on both sides of Heathrow Airport. And I agree that preserving the existing seats in Hackney and Tower Hamlets means biting the bullet of a cross-Lea seat joining Edmonton and Chingford.
On the other hand, there are a couple of three-borough seats in the plan (e.g. Romford (but this could be remedied quite easily) and Leyton (although this might be justified as a special case because of the elegant way it deals with the oversize Newham seats). But I agree with Pete about the Central London seat, which covers four authorities if we count the C of L as distinct from Westminster, as of course it legally is.
And of course I agree that Harrow and Brent is a mess. But everyone has struggled in this area; my own plan (posted upthread in instalments between 27 Feb and 1 Mar) completely jettisoned existing boundaries here, while Pete Whitehead had to split a ward. And minionofmidas has acknowledged that he is (with good reason!) unhappy about north Hillingdon, so let me suggest an alternative.
WILLESDEN SOUTH AND SHEPHERD'S BUSH: As per minion's (and my) plan. 77279
WILLESDEN NORTH AND KINGSBURY: Compared with minion's plan, gains Preston and Kenton (Brent); loses Alperton and Tokyngton. 77502
HARROW SOUTH AND WEMBLEY: Compared with minion, gains Tokyngton (and thus the stadium) and Alperton; loses Preston and Rayners Lane. 75393
HARROW EAST: Loses Kenton, Headstone South; gains Harrow Weald, Stanmore Park. 78141
HARROW WEST AND NORTHWOOD: Loses Harrow Weald, Stanmore Park; gains Rayners Lane, Headstone South. 76262
All right, this last is still hardly a thing of beauty, and the inclusion of W Ruislip ward is particularly unfortunate, but at least its Harrow component is much more compact.
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Post by islington on Apr 7, 2016 20:40:40 GMT
And minion is quite right to pull me up about Croydon. Pete Whitehead came up with an improvement on my plan with an 8-ward Croydon S seat including New Addington and a 7-ward Croydon Central, both wholly within the borough. The consequence of this is that my Croydon N & Norwood seat, referenced above, gains W Thornton and loses Selhurst compared with my original proposal and thus comes in at 76074.
I've made a few adjustments elsewhere in London, but I haven't got round to posting them yet.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 8, 2016 8:01:48 GMT
As for minionofmidas, I'd take a more positive view of his scheme than Pete Whitehead did. There's some really good stuff here: treating Ealing and Hounslow together is an excellent idea, and the seats in this area are a lot better than in most other plans (certainly than mine). Well I wasn't dissing the whole plan and I did like particularly the Acton & Chiswick seat - my specific beef was with the Harrow/Hillingdon/Brent seats and this is the area of which I have most local knowledge/family links. In particular I was concerned that Stanmore is divided between three different seats. I know from having played around with all sorts of possibilities in the area that Brent in particular is difficult to get seats within the quota without ward splitting. In the event I was quite happy about producing a ward split in that area because the ward in question has always annoyed me as it crosses the Brent and therefore the historic boundary between Wembley and Willesden (and again here my familial ties are to the northern part of this ward). Splitting that ward helped with the maths but it also enabled me to create Wembley and Willesden seats in which the river Brent formed the entirety of the boundary |
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Post by islington on Apr 8, 2016 9:13:04 GMT
Well, I've been playing around in west London and I've come up with something. I'd welcome views.
Minion's scheme in Harrow and north Hillingdon was a complete mess, but his approach to Hounslow was excellent. So I was trying to come up with something that combined his Hounslow seats (more or less) with my own proposals for Harrow and north Hillingdon, as posted on 28 Feb. This entailed wholesale surgery on the places in between, especially Ealing. The following is the best I can find at the moment; it's not necessarily pretty, but it's legal and I don't think there's anything as bad as what minion suggested for Ruislip.
BRENTFORD AND HOUNSLOW: As per minion. 75213
FELTHAM AND HESTON: Minion's seat plus Heathrow Villages. This makes the seat look much more solid on the map (not necessarily on the ground) and it's an additional borough boundary crossed, but it has to be done or else there are simply too many electors for a satisfactory fit in the rest of Hillingdon and Ealing. 78138
UXBRIDGE: The two Uxbridge wards, Yiewsley, W Drayton, Hillingdon E, Brunel, Charville, Yeading, Barnhill. Not an especially pretty seat, but there's worse to follow. 76292
SOUTHALL AND HAYES: From Hillingdon - Pinkwell, Botwell, Townfield; from Ealing - Southall Gn, Southall B'way, Norwood Gn, Dormers Wells, Elthorne. 74440
GREENFORD: The current Ealing North seat plus Lady Margaret and minus Cleveland. 74119
EALING SOUTH AND CHISWICK: Minion's Acton/Chiswick seat plus Walpole and minus Hanger Hill. Minion's version already penetrated a long way into the centre of Ealing and this alteration increases the Ealingness still further, so I think this has to be reflected in the name. I'm not pretending this ward swap is an improvement on minion's suggestion - it definitely isn't - but it preserves the essentials of his very attractive proposal and it's needed for the following seat. 74807
EALING NORTH AND WEMBLEY (or some such name): Ealing B'way, Hanger Hill, Cleveland (all from Ealing) plus Sudbury, Wembley C, Alperton, Tokyngton, Stonebridge from Brent. This combination is far from satisfactory (don't tell me; I know) but it's the least horrible I can come up with, and some of my rejected options were a lot worse. I feel I can live with a boundary through Ealing town centre provided the names of both seats acknowledge it. Others (such as BCE) might prefer to call these seats 'Ealing Acton and Chiswick' and 'Ealing Broadway and Wembley'. 73197
WILLESDEN NORTH AND KINGSBURY: As per my post of 28 Feb. 76525
That's it. Thoughts please.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 8, 2016 10:09:10 GMT
I quite like Minionofmidas' plan for east and north-east London, but I think there's room for improvement in some places. Here's an attempt that has no triborough seats. In general it concentrates more on least change than on community ties, but I think the only really unsatisfactory seats here are the ones in Havering, where ward sizes mean you've got very few options that don't involve crossing a borough boundary (and doing that would have knock-on consequences in Redbridge.)  Romford North & Harold Hill (76874) - the four northernmost wards from Romford combined with the four northernmost wards from Hornchurch & Upminster. Romford South & Upminster - the remaining three wards of Romford and four wards of Hornchurch & Upminster. Very ugly. Given that Romford is only 80 voters under quota, it's tempting to suggest just shifting a road or two and otherwise having no change. Dagenham & Rainham (73863) - loses Chadwell Heath, gains Valence and Alibon. Ilford North (74356) - gains Chadwell Heath. Ilford South (78212) - unchanged. Barking and Beckton (73046) - loses Alibon and Valence, gains Beckton and Royal Docks. East Ham (78146) - loses Beckton and Royal Docks, gains Green Street West. Does Green Street form a cohesive community? It doesn't look like it on a map, but the numbers worked so I did it anyway. West Ham (78150) - loses Green Street West. Leyton & Woodford Green (75730) - gains Church End and Monkhams. The split of Woodford is less than lovely, but it's nothing new and I think it might be easier to sell to the BCE than a triborough seat. Walthamstow (71982) - gains Hale End & Highams Park. The remaining seats are exactly the same is in Minionofmidas' plan. |
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Post by islington on Apr 8, 2016 10:46:45 GMT
ENFIELD (75302): This is the same as the existing Enfield North with the addition of Grange, which avoids the current boundary running right through the town centre. SOUTHGATE AND PALMERS GREEN (72338): This is Enfield Southgate minus Grange and plus Bush Hill Park and Haselbury. EDMONTON AND CHINGFORD (76201): I thought I'd better get this monster out of the way near the start; it's the five remaining wards of Enfield plus the WF wards of Chingford Green, Endlebury, Larkswood and Valley. The only defence of this seat is that it avoids worse problems elsewhere, and I'd point out that there are two road links (A110 and A406) between the two halves. WALTHAMSTOW (71586): The present seat minus Lea Bridge but plus Hale End and Hatch Lane. ... ILFORD SOUTH (78212): No change. It is a particularly compact and logical seat and within quota. HORNCHURCH AND UPMINSTER (78064): No change. ROMFORD (73566): The current seat minus Hylands and plus two B&D wards of Chadwell Heath and Whalebone. DAGENHAM AND RAINHAM (77626): The current seat minus Chadwell Heath and Whalebone but plus Hylands, Alibon and Valence. Ah yes, but I think we can do better than Lefty's suggestion. We can have West Ham, East Ham and Barking as Lefty has them above. Then: ILFORD NORTH AND WOODFORD (74114): The current Ilford North seat loses Clayhall and gains Monkham and Church End, thus including all four wards of Woodford town. LEYTON AND WANSTEAD (78055): The current seat plus Clayhall and Lea Bridge. Everything else as per my post of 27 Feb, the relevant extracts of which are above. Incidentally, although I agree completely with minion's approach of crossing the Lea between Edmonton and Chingford, I do feel that his use of Upper Edmonton ward to reinforce Tottenham is a mistake. It's understandable because it looks tempting on the map, but I know this area pretty well and this ward is absolutely integral to Edmonton despite the apparent barrier of the N Circular Rd (which is less of a barrier than it appears because at the crucial point, where it crosses Fore Street, it goes through a tunnel and at street level, you wouldn't know it was there). So I argue strongly that the Enfield/Haringey boundary should be maintained and Tottenham should be reinforced from within Haringey. Regarding east London more generally, the approach outlined here means: no need for ward splits or triborough seats; not too much upheaval to current boundaries with two seats completely unchanged; and the towns of Romford and Woodford both undivided. I'd take a lot of persuasion that there's a better plan. East London isn't a problem. It's west London that's bothering me. |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 9, 2016 15:22:59 GMT
That plan causes more problems than it solves by messing up a lot of constituencies without any real need to do so. Is it really necessary to avoid crossing the Lea when creating a new constituency re: Sixth Review?
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Post by timrollpickering on Apr 9, 2016 15:26:16 GMT
Here's a go at getting the Lea-crossing constituency into a place that doesn't look like an attempt to take out the Quiet Man. Take a walk around the area between the Lea and the Jubilee line and you'll soon see the problems with a seat crossing here. Or read the 2000s review where this very link was torn to shreds. There simply isn't a common residential community. This is going to be a mouthful but "West Ham North" is a more accurate and historic name for the Newham part of the seat. And ideally a cross borough constituency should acknowledge both halves - "West Ham North and Leyton"? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 9, 2016 18:08:08 GMT
And Chingford and Edmonton have the North Circular, which is hardly a quiet country lane. Neither of the options for crossing the Lea is particularly good looked at on its own, so I think it's more sensible to look at what causes least disruption elsewhere. Besides, IDS is surely a likely retirement next time and I don't recall there being any statutory need to preserve a seat for him. Accepting Islington's suggestions for East London (because they're clearly better than mine), here's an attempt at the rest of London north of the Thames. I began by breaking the problem down into groups of local authorities, because I'm pretty sure that's what the BCE would do. So Kensington & Chelsea stands alone (yes, there are valid counter-arguments, but if it's cohesive enough to be a local authority then it's cohesive enough to be a constituency); Westminster, Camden, Islington and the city get 5 seats; Hammersmith & Fulham; Hounslow and Hillingdon gets 6 seats; and Haringey, Brent, Barnet, Harrow and Ealing get 12. Originally I grouped Ealing and Harrow for 5 and Haringey, Barnet and Brent for 7, but it rapidly became apparent that you got better seats crossing Barnet-Harrow than Barnet-Brent so I merged the groups. Central London (Westminster, Camden, Islington, City of London)  Islington North (77,247) - gains Canonbury. Holloway would have been better, but there isn't room Islington South & Holborn (74,997) - loses Canonbury, gains the three Camden wards south of the Euston Road Cities of London & Westminster (74,463) - gains Bayswater, Church Street and Lancaster Gate. Church Street is an outlier both geographically and socially, but there aren't enough electors south of the A501. Hampstead & Westminster North (78,393) - Westminster North minus Church Street, plus all the Camden wards of Hampstead & Kilburn bar Hampstead Town and Belsize. You probably can't get away with calling a seat Hampstead when it doesn't contain Hampstead Town or the Heath, but I can't think of any better names off-hand. Highgate & St Pancras (76,522) - loses three wards south of the Euston Road, gains Hampstead Town and Belsize. North West London (Haringey, Barnet, Brent, Harrow, Ealing)  Tottenham (73,707) - gains Noel Park. Yes, I know this isn't north-west London in any meaningful way. Hornsey & Wood Green (77,020) - loses Noel Park, gains Garden Suburb. Chipping Barnet (72,480) - unchanged. Finchley & Hendon (75,380) - loses Garden Suburb, gains Hendon and West Hendon. Edgware & Stanmore (76,885) - successor to Hendon, loses Hendon & West Hendon, gains Canons, Harrow Weald and Stanmore. I don't know Harrow at all, so most of my decisions here are based on clean shapes. Open to counter-arguments concerning individual wards. Kenton & Queensbury (77,406) - successor to Harrow East, loses Canons, Harrow Weald and Stanmore, gains Greenhill and Marlborough from Harrow and Queensbury and Kenton from Brent. No, that split of Harrow proper isn't particularly nice. Harrow West (76,393) - loses Greenhill and Marlborough, gains Hatch End, Pinner and Pinner South. Brent North (72,639) - loses Kenton and Queensbury, gains Tokyngton Brent South (75,066) - successor to Brent Central. Gains the Kilburn wards, loses Harlesden and Kensal Green. I'd rather have taken Stonebridge, but the numbers don't work. Acton & Harlesden (78,036) - loses Ealing Broadway, gains Harlesden and Kensal Green. I've already explained the Brent ugliness. If you swap Walpole and Ealing Broadway, this would be over quota by 2 electors. Ealing North (73,703) - unchanged. Ealing Southall (73,450) - gains Ealing Broadway. West London (Hillingdon, Hounslow, Hammersmith & Fulham)  Ruislip-Northwood (72,471) - loses the Pinner wards, gains South Ruislip, Cavendish and Manor Uxbridge (76,292) - loses South Ruislip, Cavendish and Manor, gains West Drayton, Charville, Barnhill and Yeading. Unfortunately not enough of Hayes & Harlington in here to set up a McDonnell vs. Johnson deathmatch Hayes & Feltham (74,784) - I'm treating this as the successor to Hayes & Harlington, though Feltham & Heston provides more electors. Loses West Drayton, Charville, Barnhill and Yeading. Gains five wards around Feltham. Hounslow (71,993) - the successor to Feltham & Heston (marginally more of which is here than in Hayes & Feltham). Loses five Feltham wards, gains Hounslow Heath, Hounslow Central, Hounslow South and Isleworth. Brentford & White City (75,274) - loses Hounslow Heath, Hounslow Central, Hounslow South and Isleworth, gains Askew, Ravenscourt Park, Wormholt & White City and College Park & Old Oak. Yes, it's ugly Hammersmith & Fulham (77,930) - technically the successor to Hammersmith, but would definitely favour Greg Hands over Andy Slaughter. Loses Askew, Ravenscourt Park, Wormholt & White City and College Park & Old Oak, gains Fulham Kensington & Chelsea (76,454) - the eponymous borough In practice, I think you can probably improve the lines around Hammersmith and Harlesden by breaching these groups, although it might require more than one triborough seat. |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 9, 2016 20:51:51 GMT
Some alternative London proposals with minionofmidas ' alternative borough pairings.
Note that there is no viable way of pairing Islington, Camden, Barnet, and Haringey together without significant ward (and also community) splitting. Another combination of pairings is realistically needed for that part of London.
West Central:
1. Hammersmith & Fulham. All Hammersmith & Fulham wards except for College Park & Old Oak, Wormholt & White City, Shepherd's Bush Green, and Askew. Electorate: 77,725. 2. Kensington & White City. The Hammersmith & Fulham wards of College Park & Old Oak, Wormholt & White City, Shepherd's Bush Green, and Askew, plus the Kensington & Chelsea wards of Golborne, Dalgarno, St Helen's, Notting Dale, Colville, Queen's Gate, Norland, Pembridge Holland, Campden, and Abingdon. Electorate: 72,441. 3. City of London, Westminster & Chelsea. The entire City of London, plus the Westminster wards of West End, St James's, Pimlico, Tachbrook, Vincent Square, Warwick, and Churchill, plus the Kensington & Chelsea wards of Royal Hospital, Brompton & Hans Town, Chelsea Riverside, Stanley, Earl's Court, Courtfield, and Redcliffe. Electorate: 74,332. 4. Paddington & St Marylebone. The Westminster wards of Queen's Park, Harrow Road, Maida Vale, Bayswater, Lancaster Gate, Little Venice, Westbourne, Hyde Park, Abbey Road, Regent's Park, Church Street, Bryanston & Dorset Square, and Marylebone High Street. Electorate: 74,894.
Ealing & Hounslow:
1. Acton & Chiswick. The Ealing wards of Acton Central, East Acton, South Acton, Hanger Hill, and Southfield, plus the Hounslow wards of Chiswick Homefield, Chiswick Riverside, Turnham Green, and Brentford. Electorate: 75,258. 2. Ealing. The Ealing wards of Ealing Common, Ealing Broadway, Walpole, Northfield, Elthorne, Cleveland, Hobbayne, and Norwood Green. Electorate: 71,121. 3. Greenford & Northolt. The Ealing wards of Lady Margaret, Dormers Wells, Perivale, North Greenford, Greenford Green, Northolt Mandeville, Northolt West End, and Greenford Broadway. Electorate: 74,320. 4. Southall, Heston & Isleworth. The Ealing wards of Southall Green and Southall Broadway, plus the Hounslow wards of Heston (all), Cranford, Osterley & Spring Grove, Isleworth, and Syon. Electorate: 75,109. 5. Feltham & Hounslow. The Hounslow wards of Hounslow (all), Feltham North, Feltham West, Bedfont, Hanworth, and Hanworth Park. Electorate: 72,678.
Brent, Harrow & Hillingdon.
1. Willesden. The Brent wards of Queen's Park, Kilburn, Brondesbury Park, Kensal Green, Welsh Harp, Willesden Green, Dudden Hill, Mapesbury, and Dollis Hill. Electorate: 72,936. 2. Wembley. The Brent wards of Stonebridge, Tokyngton, Alperton, Wembley Central, Sudbury, Preston, Northwick Park, and Harlesden. Electorate: 72,991. 3. Kenton & Queensbury. The Brent wards of Kenton, Queensbury, Fryent, and Barnhill, plus the Harrow wards of Canons, Edgware, Queensbury, Kenton East, and Kenton West. Electorate: 75,299. 4. Harrow & Wealdstone. The Harrow wards of Rayners Lane, Harrow on the Hill, West Harrow, Roxbourne, Roxeth, Marlborough, Wealdstone, Headstone North, and Headstone South. Electorate: 74,234. 5. Hayes & Harlington. As the current Hayes & Harlington constituency plus Yiewsley ward. Electorate: 78,097. 6. Uxbridge & Ruislip. As the current Uxbridge & South Ruislip constituency minus Yiewsley ward but plus Eastcote & East Ruislip and West Ruislip wards. Electorate: 76,242. 7. Northwood & Harrow North. The Hillingdon wards of Ickenham, Harefield, Northwood, and Northwood Hills, plus the Harrow wards of Pinner, Pinner South, Hatch End, Harrow Weald, Stanmore Park, and Belmont. Electorate: 77,310.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 9, 2016 21:48:24 GMT
I began by breaking the problem down into groups of local authorities, because I'm pretty sure that's what the BCE would do. You had me fretting about this for a while, but then this isn't what they did last time |
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I did include Haringey here as well.
