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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 12, 2016 16:16:09 GMT
In East London, Labour lose one seat through abolition. It isn't entirely clear which seat as though West Ham is the most obviously dismembered seat, it actually donates the largest number of voters to both Leyton & Stratford and to Poplar & Canning Town. Could make for an interesting selection. Lyn Brown represented multiple council wards in Newham but mainly in the south west of the borough though a co-ordinated shuffle would be more likely than a head to head. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2016 22:07:02 GMT
SOUTH WEST LONDON
This seems pretty solid to me. Every existing seat has a clear successor, aside from Streatham and Dulwich and West Norwood, so the knock on changes aren't vast, and result in three tasty marginals. The Wandsworth and Wimbledon Conservative Group wouldn't appreciate these boundaries... PARTISAN EFFECT Boroughs of Richmond and Kingston fit nicely for three Conservative seats. Putney is well undersized and has to expand to take one Merton ward and one Wandsworth ward or two Merton wards. I think Earlsfield and Wimbledon Park fits the most naturally. Earlsfield is a Conservative leaning marginal ward and Wimbledon Park safeish Conservative. Overall Putney still a safe Conservative seat, but very slightly less safe. Wimbledon loses safeish Conservative Wimbledon Park and gains St Helier, Ravensbury and Lower Morden. Safe Conservative seat becomes marginal. New seat is renamed Wimbledon and Morden. Mitcham and Morden loses the wards above to Wimbledon and picks up three Streatham wards, Streatham South, St Leonard's and Streatham Wells. Renamed Mitcham (or Mitcham or Streatham). Still safe labour. Tooting loses Tory leaning marginal Earlsfield and gains safe Tory Balham. Satisfying as currently Greater Balham (Balham extends into much of Nightingale and Bedford wards). Name changed to Tooting and Balham. Battersea loses safe Tory Balham and gains Tory leaning marginal Clapham Common and safe Labour Clapham Town. Safeish Conservative seat becomes a proper marginal. Vauxhall loses safe Labour Clapham Town and gains very safe labour Coldharbour. Streatham loses three wards Streatham South, Streatham Wells and St. Leonard's to the new Mitcham seat, but takes 4 of the 5 Dulwich and West Norwood wards, I.e Gipsy Hill, Herne Hill, Knight’s Hill, and Thurlow Park, but not Coldharbour (which goes into Vauxhall). New seat can't be called Streatham, and don't really know what is best. Gone for Tulse Hill. Chukka would be in for a bunfight to stand here I expect.
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 12, 2016 22:20:12 GMT
Nice. I think you've solved one of my bugbears with the Croydon seats - the sheer absurdity of a seat called "Croydon Central" going all the way to New Addington (lovely place by the way and there are further delights along the tram route). |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2016 22:55:45 GMT
Looking at the partisan changes effected by my proposals. Firstly abolished seats: In East London, Labour lose one seat through abolition. It isn't entirely clear which seat as though West Ham is the most obviously dismembered seat, it actually donates the largest number of voters to both Leyton & Stratford and to Poplar & Canning Town. In any event Labour are down 1 there. In North London, Enfield Southgate is abolised and split between Chipping Barnet (Barnet & Southgate) and Enfield North (Enfield West) In West London Kensington is abolished and divided between Hammersmith, Chelsea & Fulham and Westmisnter North (Maida Vale & Ladbroke Grove) In South London two seats disappear. Erith & Thamesmead is clearly abolished with the greater part joining with wards from Bexleyheath & Crayford where it is in the minority (though it will translate this into a marginal seat) while the two seats of Dulwich & west Norwood and Lewisham West & Penge are effectively merged though with the latter contributing slightly more voters. So abolished seats result in a loss of 3 Labour seats and 2 Conservative seats. There are then a further six seats which are moved from one party to another 1. Hampstead & Kilburn on becoming Hampstead & Highgate would likely have returned a small Conservative majority in 2015 (about 300) but the fundamental balance of the seat is not altered 2. Enfield North in being transformed into Enfield West moves from marginal Labour to reasonably safe Conservative 3. Brentford & Isleworth in being transformed into Brentford & Chiswick moves from marginal Labour to comfortably Conservative 4. Tooting in being transformed into Wandsworth Central moves from marginal Labour to safely Conservative 5. Croydon Central moves from marginal Conservative to safe Labour 6. Carshalton & Wallington in being transformed into Carshalton & Coulsdon moves from marginal Lib Dem to safe Conservative (Sutton & St Helier however is much more marginally Conservative) The result in 2015 would therefore have been Lab 39 (-6) Con 29 (+2) LD 0 (-1) Edit: Forgot to check Eltham & Welling and having done so that comes out on my figures as Tory with a majority of 95 - too close to call really and I guess had those two wards (where Labour will have done no work) been in the seat they may have been able to make up the deficit. Clearly much more vulnerable though What are your figures for Battersea and Clapham. Guessing that must be moderately close. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 13, 2016 1:08:50 GMT
What are your figures for Battersea and Clapham. Guessing that must be moderately close. On those boundaries my notional 2015 result is a Conservative majority of about 2,500 (4.5%). Incidentally I put Labour narrowly ahead in your Eltham and Welling seat - majority of about 200-300. UKIP a strong third there as well. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2016 13:12:46 GMT
If we're doing gerrymanders of South London, I think this one works quite well:  City of London and Southwark 75,676 Peckham 75,262 Greenwich 76,969 Woolwich and Thamesmead 74,764 Bexley and Erith 78,503 Bexleyheath and Sidcup 73,348 Eltham 76,464 Bromley and Chislehurst 75,151 Orpington 74,853 Beckenham 71,895 Penge and Grove Park 74,202 Dulwich 71,865 Brixton 75,832 Streatham 73,073 Croydon North 77,986 Croydon Central and Beddington 74,450 Croydon South 78,259 Sutton and Carshalton 74,152 Mitcham and Morden 73,034 Worcester Park 78,270 Wimbledon 73,447 Kingston upon Thames 72,543 Richmond Park 76,110 Wandsworth 72,402 Battersea 77,421 Camberwell 77,978 That Wandsworth seat is too hideous for words |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 13, 2016 13:26:24 GMT
I think that's intended as a joke pro-Tory gerrymander suggestion, not a serious submission. (I think it makes seven Labour seats south of the river, some marginal)
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Post by greenhert on Mar 17, 2016 22:12:38 GMT
My London proposals, part 1.
1. Kensington & Chelsea. The entire borough of Kensington & Chelsea. Electorate: 76,454.
2. Bethnal Green & Bow. Adjusted to fit new ward boundaries but otherwise unchanged. Electorate: 76,868.
3. Poplar & Limehouse. Adjusted to fit new ward boundaries but otherwise unchanged. Electorate: 74,283.
4. Hackney North & Stoke Newington. Adjusted to fit new ward boundaries but otherwise unchanged. Electorate: 75,318.
5. Hackney South & Shoreditch. Adjusted to fit new ward boundaries but otherwise unchanged. Electorate: 73,026. 6. Richmond Park. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 74,740. 7. Twickenham. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 78,247. 8. Kingston & Surbiton. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 77,995.
9. Orpington. As the current Orpington constituency plus the ward of Cray Valley West. Electorate: 78,277.
10. Bromley & Chislehurst. The Bromley wards of Chislehurst, Mottingham & Chislehurst North, Bickley, Plaistow & Sundridge, Bromley Town, Bromley Common & Keston, and Hayes & Conley Hall. Electorate: 75,812.
11. Beckenham. The Bromley wards of Crystal Palace, Penge & Cator, Clock House, Kelsey & Eden Park, West Wickham, Copers Cope, and Shortlands. Electorate: 72,004. |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 17, 2016 22:33:16 GMT
My London proposals part 2 (Central London).
1. The City of London and Westminster South. As the current Cities of London & Westminster constituency plus the wards of Lancaster Gate and Bayswater. Electorate: 74,463.
2. St Pancras & Westminster North. All City of Westminster wards not in the City of London & Westminster South constituency plus the Camden wards of Regent's Park, St Pancras & Somers Town, Camden Town & Primrose Hill, and Cantelowes. Electorate: 74,603.
3. Islington North. As the current Islington North plus the ward of Canonbury. Electorate: 77,247.
4. Islington South & Holborn. The Islington wards of Holloway, Clerkenwell, Bunhill, St Mary's, St Peter's, Barnsbury, and Caledonian, plus the Camden wards of Bloomsbury, Kings Cross, and Holborn & Covent Garden. Electorate: 74,997.
5. Hampstead. The Camden wards of Frognal & Fitzjohns, Hampstead Town, Belsize, Swiss Cottage, Kilburn, Kentish Town, Haverstock, Fortune Green and West Hampstead. Electorate: 72,659.
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Post by greenhert on Mar 17, 2016 23:36:03 GMT
My London proposals part 3 (South East London).
1. Lewisham West. The Lewisham wards of Forest Hill, Sydenham, Perry Vale, Brockley, Ladywell, Telegraph Hill, Bellingham, and Crofton Park. Electorate: 76,118.
2. Lewisham East. As the current Lewisham East constituency plus Lewisham Central ward. Electorate: 72,898.
3. Bexley. The Bexley wards of Cray Meadows, Sidcup, Longlands, St Mary's, Blendon & Penhill, Danson Park, Christchurch, Barnehurst, and Crayford. Electorate: 73,127.
4. Erith & Belvedere. The Bexley wards of East Whickham, St Michael's, Thamesmead East, Lesnes Abbey, Brampton, North End, Colyers, Erith, Belvedere, and Northumberland Heath. Electorate: 76,300.
5. Eltham. As the current Eltham constituency minus Charlton ward, but plus the Bexley wards of Falconwood & Welling and Blackfen & Lamorbey. Electorate: 77,729.
6. Woolwich. The Greenwich wards of Thamesmead Moorings, Charlton, Abbey Wood, Plumbstead, Glyndon, Shooters Hill, Woolwich Common, and Woolwich Riverside. Electorate: 77,050.
7. Greenwich, New Cross, & Rotherhithe. The Greenwich wards of Peninsula and Greenwich West, the Lewisham wards of New Cross and Evelyn, and the Southwark wards of Surrey Docks, Rotherhithe, Riverside, and Grange. Electorate: 76,105.
8. Dulwich & Peckham. The Southwark wards of College, Village, East Dulwich, Nunhead, Peckham, Peckham Rye, The Lane, and Livesey. Electorate: 73,263. 9.Bermondsey & Camberwell. The Southwark wards of South Camberwell, Brunswick Park, Camberwell Green, Faraday, South Bermondsey, East Walworth, Newington, Cathedrals, and Chaucer. Electorate: 76,953.
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Post by greenhert on Mar 18, 2016 0:21:14 GMT
My proposals for London, part 4 (North East Middlesex and South West Essex aka the boroughs of Haringey, Enfield, Waltham Forest and Redbridge).
1. Hornsey & Wood Green. As the current Hornsey & Wood Green minus the Stroud Green ward, but plus the Camden ward of Highgate; this unites Highgate in one constituency. Electorate: 74,275.
2. Tottenham. As the current Tottenham constituency plus Stroud Green. Electorate: 74,648.
3. Edmonton & Chingford. The Enfield wards of Upper Edmonton, Edmonton Green, Lower Edmonton, Haselbury and Jubilee, plus the Waltham Forest wards of Chingford Green, Valley, Endlebury, and Larkswood. Electorate: 76,632.
4. Enfield Southgate. The current Enfield Southgate constituency plus Bush Hill Park ward. Electorate: 72,978.
5. Enfield North. The current Enfield North constituency plus Ponders End ward. Electorate: 74,422.
6. Walthamstow. The Waltham Forest wards of Hatch Lane, Hale End & Highams Park, Hoe Street, Markhouse, Wood Street, William Morris, Chapel End, and Higham Hill. Electorate: 71,586.
7. Leyton & Wanstead. The current Leyton & Wanstead constituency plus the Redbridge ward of Clayhall and the Waltham Forest ward of Lea Bridge. Electorate: 78,055.
8. Ilford North & Woodford. The Redbridge wards of Hainault, Aldborough, Fairlop, Fulwell, Barkingside, Bridge, Monkhams, Roding, and Church End. Electorate: 74,114.
9. Ilford South. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 78,212.
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Post by greenhert on Mar 18, 2016 10:34:53 GMT
My London proposals, part 5 (Lambeth, Wandsworth, and Merton).
1. Brixton. The Lambeth wards of Thurlow Park, Herne Hill, Coldharbour, Tulse Hill, Brixton Hill, Ferndale, Larkhall, and Stockwell. Electorate: 75,954.
2. Streatham & Clapham. The Lambeth wards of Clapham Town/Common, Streatham Hill/South/Wells, St Leonard's, Thornton, Knight's Hill, and Gipsy Hill. Electorate: 78,019.
3. Morden & Wimbledon South. The Merton wards of Hillside, Raynes Park, Dundonald, West Barnes, Lower Morden, Cannon Hill, Merton Park, St Helier, Ravensbury, Cricket Green, and Pollards Hill. Electorate: 72,209.
4. New Tooting & Colliers Wood. The Merton wards of Trinity, Abbey, Colliers Wood, Lavender Fields, Longthornton, Graveney, and Figge's Marsh, plus the Wandsworth wards of Furzedown, Bedford, and Graveney. Electorate: 74,866.
5. Putney & Wimbledon North. As the current Putney constituency plus the Merton wards of Village and Wimbledon Park. Electorate: 72,489.
6. Wandsworth Central. The Wandsworth wards of Balham, Fairfields, Wandsworth Common, Northcote, Earlsfield, Nightingale, and Tooting. Electorate: 71,232.
7. Vauxhall & Battersea. The Lambeth wards of Prince's, Bishop's, Oval, and Vassall, plus the Wandsworth wards of Latchmere, Shaftesbury, Queenstown and St Mary Park. Electorate: 74,419.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 18, 2016 10:42:53 GMT
Your Battersea & Tooting seat doesn;t include much of Battersea.
Can I suggest posting images of the maps of your proposals as it's much more convenient for people to see the proposals rather than having to read through all the detail. It would probably be quicker for you as well
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Post by greenhert on Mar 18, 2016 13:34:27 GMT
My London proposals, part 6 (Croydon and Sutton)
1. Sutton & Cheam. As the current Sutton and Cheam constituency plus the ward of St. Helier. Electorate: 75,244.
2. Carshalton & Wallington. As the current Carshalton & Wallington constituency minus St. Helier ward but plus Broad Green ward from Croydon. Electorate: 71,619.
3. Croydon South. The Croydon wards of Coulsdon East/West, Kenley, Sanderstead, Selsdon & Ballards, Heathfield, Fieldway, and New Addington. Electorate: 71,401.
4. Croydon Central. The Croydon wards of Purley, Croham, Waddon, Farfield, Addiscombe, Selhurst (half), Ashburton, and Shirley. Electorate: 77,200 approx.
5. Croydon North. The Croydon wards of Upper Norwood, South Norwood, Woodside, Thornton Heath, Selhurst (half), Norbury, West Thornton, and Bensham Manor. Electorate: 76,600 approx.
Croydon and Sutton proposals map |
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 18, 2016 16:24:12 GMT
Erm where does Newham go? It doesn't have the numbers for standalone seats.
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Post by greatkingrat on Mar 18, 2016 16:58:19 GMT
Presumably 6 seats for Newham/Barking/Havering combined.
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Post by greenhert on Mar 19, 2016 0:26:03 GMT
Presumably 6 seats for Newham/Barking/Havering combined. Correct-and there are good links between all three boroughs, which all used to be in Essex (apart from the North Woolwich area of Newham) before Greater London was formed. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2016 1:21:24 GMT
My London proposals, part 5 (Lambeth, Wandsworth, and Merton; ward-splitting is unfortunately needed to make this work).
1. Brixton & West Norwood. The Lambeth wards of Gipsy Hill, Herne Hill, Knight's Hill (two-thirds), Tulse Hill, Brixton Hill, Coldharbour, Thurlow Park, and Ferndale. Electorate: 72,198 (estimate).
2. Streatham & Clapham. The Lambeth wards of Clapham Town/Common, Larkhall, Streatham Hill/South/Wells, St Leonard's, Thornton, and Knight's Hill (one-third). Electorate: 73,341 (estimate).
3. Wimbledon & Morden. As the current Wimbledon constituency plus the wards of Lower Morden and St Helier. Electorate: 76,938.
4. Mitcham. All Merton wards not in Wimbledon & Morden plus the Wandsworth wards of Furzedown and Graveney. Electorate: 72,570.
5. Putney. As the current Putney constituency plus the wards of Fairfield and Earlsfield (half). Electorate: 75,218 (estimate).
6. Tooting & Battersea South. The Wandsworth wards of Tooting, Nightingale, Balham, Wandsworth Common, Northcote, Bedford, and Shaftesbury, plus half of Earlsfield. Electorate: 75,321 (estimate).
7. Vauxhall & Battersea North. The Lambeth wards of Prince's, Bishop's, Oval, Stockwell, and Vassall, plus the Wandsworth wards of Latchmere, Queenstown and St Mary Park. Electorate: 72,932.
Lambeth, Merton, and Wandsworth map
Rename Tooting and Battersea South to Balham. |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 19, 2016 19:54:54 GMT
Finally onto Newham, Barking & Dagenham, and Havering.
1. West Ham. As the current West Ham constituency minus Green Street West ward. Electorate: 78,150.
2. East Ham. As the current East Ham constituency plus Green Street West ward but minus Royal Docks and Beckton wards. Electorate: 78,146.
3. Barking & Beckton. The Newham wards of Beckton and Royal Docks, plus the Barking & Dagenham wards of Abbey, Eastbury, Gascoigne, Longbridge, Mayesbrook, Partrees, Becontree and Thames. Electorate: 72,943.
4. Dagenham & Rainham. The Barking & Dagenham wards of River, Village, Heath, Alibon, Eastbrook, and Goresbrook, and the Havering wards of Rainham & Wennington, South Hornchurch, Elm Park and Hylands. Electorate: 77,729.
5. Romford & Chadwell Heath. The Barking & Dagenham wards of Chadwell Heath and Whalebone, plus the Havering wards of Havering Park, Mawneys, Brooklands, Romford Town, Pettits, and Squirrel's Heath. Electorate: 73,566.
6. Hornchurch & Upminster. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 78,064.
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Post by greenhert on Mar 19, 2016 20:14:01 GMT
The constituencies that disappear in my plans are:
Holborn & St Pancras, Chingford & Woodford Green, Chelsea & Fulham, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Lewisham Deptford, Battersea, Dulwich & West Norwood, Camberwell & Peckham, Greenwich & Woolwich, Bexleyheath & Crayford, Brent Central, and Hayes & Harlington.
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