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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 13, 2016 14:36:56 GMT
Grimsby split in two and both are Conservative according to Anthony Wells' notionals:
Grimsby North and Barton CC:
Con 18,747
Lab 14,002
UKIP 8,702
Grimsby South and Cleethorpes BC
Con 16,987
Lab 14,521
UKIP 9,409
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 13, 2016 15:05:16 GMT
3 seats unchanged in Yorkshire & The Humber:
Beverley & Holderness
East Yorkshire
Elmet and Rothwell
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Post by AdminSTB on Sept 13, 2016 17:26:09 GMT
What's happening to Shipley?
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,918
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Post by YL on Sept 13, 2016 17:30:08 GMT
What's happening to Shipley? Loses Wharfedale to Keighley, gains Guiseley & Rawdon ward of Leeds. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 13, 2016 18:08:15 GMT
What's happening to Shipley? It loses Wharfedale to Keighley, and gains Guiseley & Rawdon from Pudsey. It also loses 1 voter to Keighley in the Worth Valley ward. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,843 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Sept 13, 2016 20:02:14 GMT
Sheffield overlaid with this year's new ward boundaries where the proposed constituencies split them.  |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,918
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Post by YL on Sept 13, 2016 20:24:31 GMT
According to Anthony Wells's 2015 notional estimates, the "Hallam & Stocksbridge" thing comes out as
Lab 20,453
LD 16,461
Con 12,113
UKIP 7,860
Green 1,070
I guess this makes sense: compared with the existing Hallam the loss of Crookes hurts Labour, but the Lib Dems will have got few votes in Stocksbridge & Upper Don and Penistone East in 2015, so it's not surprising Labour overtake them. However, the Lib Dems would have no doubt got more tactical votes out of those wards (and Beauchief & Greenhill) had it existed, so I guess it would actually have been closer than that...
"Sheffield Central & West" (I'm going to try and think of a better name for this) would have been Lib Dem in 2010, but comfortably Labour in 2015.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,455
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Post by iain on Sept 13, 2016 20:35:44 GMT
According to Anthony Wells's 2015 notional estimates, the "Hallam & Stocksbridge" thing comes out as Lab 20,453 LD 16,461 Con 12,113 UKIP 7,860 Green 1,070 I guess this makes sense: compared with the existing Hallam the loss of Crookes hurts Labour, but the Lib Dems will have got few votes in Stocksbridge & Upper Don and Penistone East in 2015, so it's not surprising Labour overtake them. However, the Lib Dems would have no doubt got more tactical votes out of those wards (and Beauchief & Greenhill) had it existed, so I guess it would actually have been closer than that... "Sheffield Central & West" (I'm going to try and think of a better name for this) would have been Lib Dem in 2010, but comfortably Labour in 2015. If I've added up right, this is the Pete Whitehead notional: Lab – 18,406 (32.98%) LD – 16,345 (29.29%) Con – 11,947 (21.41%) UKIP – 7,556 (13.54%) Grn – 1,066 (1.91%) Oth – 492 (0.88%) |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,843
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Post by J.G.Harston on Sept 13, 2016 21:09:40 GMT
"Sheffield Central & West" (I'm going to try and think of a better name for this) would have been Lib Dem in 2010, but comfortably Labour in 2015. Sheffield Universities? I'm tempted to support the proposals just to keep that squashed salamander on the map. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 13, 2016 21:18:10 GMT
I don't know whether to laugh or dispair at Sheffield Why choose one? |
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 13, 2016 21:45:11 GMT
Poor old Halifax. Ripped apart...but not a great surprise. These proposals (bar the addition of Royds) more or less mirror a Liberal scheme from 30+ years ago - Calderdale East/West.
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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 14, 2016 21:00:27 GMT
I think it fair to say that we in Wakefield are delighted with the boundary change proposal and we will do all in our power to keep it that way. Nobody could seriously argue that bringing Sandal into the existing Wakefield seat is not a perfectly logical and reasonable measure to achieve the objective. I look forward to getting our first Conservative MP for central Wakefield, since 1932, which I am confident will happen at the next general election....it can't come soon enough. I'm surprised that you are so happy about the proposals. While Wakefield is better for the Conservatives than before, Morley & Outwood will be lost. Under the current boundaries we could win both Wakefield and Morley & Outwood in a poor year for Labour, while under these proposals only Wakefield is winnable. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,918
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Post by YL on Sept 15, 2016 17:18:49 GMT
Poor old Halifax. Ripped apart...but not a great surprise. These proposals (bar the addition of Royds) more or less mirror a Liberal scheme from 30+ years ago - Calderdale East/West. I've realised that the Commission's proposal to split Calderdale into east and west rather than Halifax and not-Halifax allows the Bradford orphan ward which goes into one of them to be Queensbury after all, rather than Royds, and it looks to me like that makes more sense. It also allows for something closer to minimal change in Bradford, as West doesn't need to take Queensbury so can keep Manningham, with East being the current seat plus Wibsey, and the Bradford component of Spen (& Bradford South) being Wyke and Royds. Tong would still be orphaned in (Leeds West &) Pudsey, which is not very satisfactory, but the rest of the Leeds/Bradford arrangement then looks reasonable to my South Yorkshire eyes. (South Yorkshire is another matter...) |
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 16, 2016 17:08:07 GMT
Another scenario could see the revival of Brighouse & Spenborough. The remaining wards divvied up into Halifax & Bradford South and Calder Valley (or Sowerby).
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Post by greenhert on Sept 16, 2016 18:22:32 GMT
It could just be Halifax & Queensbury; Queensbury & Shelf formed a separate urban district from Bradford from 1937 until the local government reorganisation of 1974. Removing Sowerby Bridge ward and reuniting it with 'Sowerby' (Calder Valley minus Brighouse town plus a rural ward currently in Keighley) will help.
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Post by AdminSTB on Sept 16, 2016 19:47:05 GMT
It could just be Halifax & Queensferry; Queensferry & Shelf formed a separate district from Bradford until the local government reorganisation of 1974. Removing Sowerby Bridge ward and reuniting it with 'Sowerby' (Calder Valley minus Brighouse town plus a rural ward currently in Keighley) will help. You mean Queensbury not Queensferry. |
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Post by greenhert on Sept 16, 2016 20:07:21 GMT
Oops-I do mean Queensbury. Queensferry is in Flintshire.
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 16, 2016 20:35:04 GMT
Did somebody mention Queensbury?
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Post by AdminSTB on Sept 16, 2016 21:47:41 GMT
Did somebody mention Queensbury? Superb band. I've watched them play practically for free at an event to mark the 150th anniversary of Queensbury (it was called Queenshead until 1863). Gerry Sutcliffe was sat in the row in front of me. |
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Post by greenhert on Sept 28, 2016 21:10:12 GMT
Proposals for Sheffield with detailed ward splits (since this is one of only a few areas that should have any split wards at all regarding the 2018 review).
1. Sheffield South East (77,719) Arburthorne, Beighton, Mosborough and Woodhouse wards. Alternative name: Sheffield Gleadless.
2. Sheffield Central (76,588) Loses Manor Castle ward, gains Crookes ward and polling districts NB, NC, NF and NG from Fulwood ward. Alternative name: Sheffield Crookes.
3. Sheffield South West (75,194) Beauchief & Greenhill, Dore & Totley, Ecclesall Gleadless Valley, Graves Park and polling districts NA, NC and ND from Fulwood ward. Closest successor to Sheffield Heeley . Alternative name: Sheffield Ecclesall.
4. Sheffield East (77,328) Burngreave, Darnall, Firth Park, Manor Castle, Shiregreen & Brightside wards, plus polling districts WA, WC, WE, WF and WG of Southey ward (the part east of Halifax Road). Succeeds Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough (despite losing Hillsborough itself). Alternative name: Sheffield Brightside.
5. Sheffield North (74,601). Stocksbridge & Upper Don, Ecclesfield East, Ecclesfield West, Hillsborough and Stannington wards, and polling districts WB and WD of Southey ward (the districts west of Halifax Road). Closest successor to Penistone & Stocksbridge. Alternative name: Sheffield Stocksbridge & Ecclesfield.
Sheffield Hallam disappears.
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