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Post by edgbaston on Jun 9, 2019 16:10:20 GMT
I wish it were gerrymandering, but Labour would only really net an extra 5 or seats from this over apportionment. The main reason for it is to bolster the parliamentary voices of these nations so that they are more important in the election and in the HoC - a Cameron 2015 situation, for example, is made harder (1 Scottish seat but an overall majority) Scotland used to be over represented with 72 seats, that was cut down to size to 59 seats as they got devolution. Why should they be over represented again without giving up devolution? As devolution has failed |
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 9, 2019 16:36:30 GMT
Scotland used to be over represented with 72 seats, that was cut down to size to 59 seats as they got devolution. Why should they be over represented again without giving up devolution? As devolution has failed In what way? |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,144 
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Post by Foggy on Jun 9, 2019 18:40:48 GMT
Well, in Scotland, it failed to "kill nationalism stone dead" I suppose. Interesting to see a senior Labour activist advocating its abolition, though.  |
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Post by edgbaston on Dec 17, 2019 22:39:29 GMT
Anyone got an idea of what the results would've been under this review?
Was thinking about Yorkshire and I got Labour: 24, Tory: 26. As opposed to the current situation of more votes for the Tories but fewer seats. An incentive for the government to shove something like this through.
Barnsley East & Hemsworth - Labour, maj probably under 2000
Barnsley West & Stocksbridge - Labour, maj probably under 1000
Batley & Morley BC - Tory, much reduced maj
Beverley & Holderness - Tory, unchanged
Bradford North - Labour, safe
Bradford South BC - Labour, safe
Bradford South East and Spen - Tory, comfortable maj
Cleethorpes & Great Grimsby South - Tory, safe
Colne Valley & Penistone - Tory, ~5000 maj
Dewsbury - Tory, unchanged
Don Valley - Tory, pretty unchanged
Doncaster Central - Labour, pretty unchanged
Doncaster North - Labour, pretty unchanged
East Yorkshire - Tory, unchanged
Elmet & Rothwell - Tory, unchanged
Goole, Howden & Axholme - Tory, safe
Great Grimsby North & Barton - Tory, safe
Halifax & North Calderdale - Labour, safe
Harrogate & Knaresborough - Tory - unchanged
Huddersfield - Labour, maj more like 3000
Hull East - Labour, more comfortably
Hull North - Labour, safe
Hull West & Haltemprice - Tory, fairly comfortably
Keighley - Tory, more comfortably
Leeds Central - Labour, safe
Leeds East - Labour, safe
Leeds North East - Labour, safe
Leeds North West, Labour, maj more like 5000 I would think?
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford - Labour, unchanged
Pudsey - Labour, safe
Richmond - Tory, unchanged
Rother Valley - Tory, unchanged
Rotherham, Labour, maj under 3000
Scarborough & Whitby, Tory, largely unchanged
Scunthorpe, Tory, more comfortably
Selby & Ainsty - Tory, unchanged
Sheffield Central - Labour, safe
Sheffield Hallam - Labour, more comfortably
Sheffield North and Ecclesfield - Labour, safe
Sheffield South - Labour, safe
Sheffield South East - Labour, safe
Shipley - Tory, safely
Skipton & Ripon - Tory, unchanged
South Calderdale & Queensbury - Tory, maj 10,000+?
Thirsk & Malton - Tory, largely unchanged
Wakefield - Tory, relatively comfortably
Wakefield Rural - Tory, maj ~2000
Wentworth & Hoyland - Labour, maj ~3000
York Central - Labour, relatively unchanged
York Outer - Tory, relatively unchanged
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 18, 2019 8:26:00 GMT
Anyone got an idea of what the results would've been under this review? Was thinking about Yorkshire and I got Labour: 24, Tory: 26. As opposed to the current situation of more votes for the Tories but fewer seats. An incentive for the government to shove something like this through. Barnsley East & Hemsworth - Labour, maj probably under 2000 Barnsley West & Stocksbridge - Labour, maj probably under 1000 Batley & Morley BC - Tory, much reduced maj Beverley & Holderness - Tory, unchanged Bradford North - Labour, safe Bradford South BC - Labour, safe Bradford South East and Spen - Tory, comfortable maj Cleethorpes & Great Grimsby South - Tory, safe Colne Valley & Penistone - Tory, ~5000 maj Dewsbury - Tory, unchanged Don Valley - Tory, pretty unchanged Doncaster Central - Labour, pretty unchanged Doncaster North - Labour, pretty unchanged East Yorkshire - Tory, unchanged Elmet & Rothwell - Tory, unchanged Goole, Howden & Axholme - Tory, safe Great Grimsby North & Barton - Tory, safe Halifax & North Calderdale - Labour, safe Harrogate & Knaresborough - Tory - unchanged Huddersfield - Labour, maj more like 3000 Hull East - Labour, more comfortably Hull North - Labour, safe Hull West & Haltemprice - Tory, fairly comfortably Keighley - Tory, more comfortably Leeds Central - Labour, safe Leeds East - Labour, safe Leeds North East - Labour, safe Leeds North West, Labour, maj more like 5000 I would think? Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford - Labour, unchanged Pudsey - Labour, safe Richmond - Tory, unchanged Rother Valley - Tory, unchanged Rotherham, Labour, maj under 3000 Scarborough & Whitby, Tory, largely unchanged Scunthorpe, Tory, more comfortably Selby & Ainsty - Tory, unchanged Sheffield Central - Labour, safe Sheffield Hallam - Labour, more comfortably Sheffield North and Ecclesfield - Labour, safe Sheffield South - Labour, safe Sheffield South East - Labour, safe Shipley - Tory, safely Skipton & Ripon - Tory, unchanged South Calderdale & Queensbury - Tory, maj 10,000+? Thirsk & Malton - Tory, largely unchanged Wakefield - Tory, relatively comfortably Wakefield Rural - Tory, maj ~2000 Wentworth & Hoyland - Labour, maj ~3000 York Central - Labour, relatively unchanged York Outer - Tory, relatively unchanged Northern Ireland: Solid DUP: Antrim East, Antrim West, Dalriada, Down West, Strangford DUP marginals: Belfast East (Alliance), Glenshane (Sinn Fein) Sinn Fein marginals: Belfast South West (SDLP), Fermanagh and South Tyrone (UUP), Upper Bann and Blackwater (DUP) Solid SDLP: Foyle Alliance marginals: Down North (DUP) Once I have finished tallying the UK, I shall be able to do a complete notional for 2019 |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Dec 18, 2019 9:05:40 GMT
Northern Ireland: Solid DUP: Antrim East, Antrim West, Dalriada, Down West, Strangford DUP marginals: Belfast East (Alliance), Glenshane (Sinn Fein) Sinn Fein marginals: Belfast South West (SDLP), Fermanagh and South Tyrone (UUP), Upper Bann and Blackwater (DUP) Solid SDLP: Foyle Alliance marginals: Down North (DUP) Once I have finished tallying the UK, I shall be able to do a complete notional for 2019 Those aren't the final NI proposals, which have 4 Belfast seats. (And this liking some people have for switching the word order in compass point + county names comes across as particularly hideous with County Down. Please, it's "North Down", not "Down North".) |
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Deleted
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Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2019 9:22:11 GMT
Anyone got an idea of what the results would've been under this review? Was thinking about Yorkshire and I got Labour: 24, Tory: 26. As opposed to the current situation of more votes for the Tories but fewer seats. An incentive for the government to shove something like this through. Barnsley East & Hemsworth - Labour, maj probably under 2000 Barnsley West & Stocksbridge - Labour, maj probably under 1000 Batley & Morley BC - Tory, much reduced maj Beverley & Holderness - Tory, unchanged Bradford North - Labour, safe Bradford South BC - Labour, safe Bradford South East and Spen - Tory, comfortable maj Cleethorpes & Great Grimsby South - Tory, safe Colne Valley & Penistone - Tory, ~5000 maj Dewsbury - Tory, unchanged Don Valley - Tory, pretty unchanged Doncaster Central - Labour, pretty unchanged Doncaster North - Labour, pretty unchanged East Yorkshire - Tory, unchanged Elmet & Rothwell - Tory, unchanged Goole, Howden & Axholme - Tory, safe Great Grimsby North & Barton - Tory, safe Halifax & North Calderdale - Labour, safe Harrogate & Knaresborough - Tory - unchanged Huddersfield - Labour, maj more like 3000 Hull East - Labour, more comfortably Hull North - Labour, safe Hull West & Haltemprice - Tory, fairly comfortably Keighley - Tory, more comfortably Leeds Central - Labour, safe Leeds East - Labour, safe Leeds North East - Labour, safe Leeds North West, Labour, maj more like 5000 I would think? Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford - Labour, unchanged Pudsey - Labour, safe Richmond - Tory, unchanged Rother Valley - Tory, unchanged Rotherham, Labour, maj under 3000 Scarborough & Whitby, Tory, largely unchanged Scunthorpe, Tory, more comfortably Selby & Ainsty - Tory, unchanged Sheffield Central - Labour, safe Sheffield Hallam - Labour, more comfortably Sheffield North and Ecclesfield - Labour, safe Sheffield South - Labour, safe Sheffield South East - Labour, safe Shipley - Tory, safely Skipton & Ripon - Tory, unchanged South Calderdale & Queensbury - Tory, maj 10,000+? Thirsk & Malton - Tory, largely unchanged Wakefield - Tory, relatively comfortably Wakefield Rural - Tory, maj ~2000 Wentworth & Hoyland - Labour, maj ~3000 York Central - Labour, relatively unchanged York Outer - Tory, relatively unchanged whats the current total? |
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 18, 2019 10:55:59 GMT
Anyone got an idea of what the results would've been under this review? Was thinking about Yorkshire and I got Labour: 24, Tory: 26. As opposed to the current situation of more votes for the Tories but fewer seats. An incentive for the government to shove something like this through. Barnsley East & Hemsworth - Labour, maj probably under 2000 Barnsley West & Stocksbridge - Labour, maj probably under 1000 Batley & Morley BC - Tory, much reduced maj Beverley & Holderness - Tory, unchanged Bradford North - Labour, safe Bradford South BC - Labour, safe Bradford South East and Spen - Tory, comfortable maj Cleethorpes & Great Grimsby South - Tory, safe Colne Valley & Penistone - Tory, ~5000 maj Dewsbury - Tory, unchanged Don Valley - Tory, pretty unchanged Doncaster Central - Labour, pretty unchanged Doncaster North - Labour, pretty unchanged East Yorkshire - Tory, unchanged Elmet & Rothwell - Tory, unchanged Goole, Howden & Axholme - Tory, safe Great Grimsby North & Barton - Tory, safe Halifax & North Calderdale - Labour, safe Harrogate & Knaresborough - Tory - unchanged Huddersfield - Labour, maj more like 3000 Hull East - Labour, more comfortably Hull North - Labour, safe Hull West & Haltemprice - Tory, fairly comfortably Keighley - Tory, more comfortably Leeds Central - Labour, safe Leeds East - Labour, safe Leeds North East - Labour, safe Leeds North West, Labour, maj more like 5000 I would think? Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford - Labour, unchanged Pudsey - Labour, safe Richmond - Tory, unchanged Rother Valley - Tory, unchanged Rotherham, Labour, maj under 3000 Scarborough & Whitby, Tory, largely unchanged Scunthorpe, Tory, more comfortably Selby & Ainsty - Tory, unchanged Sheffield Central - Labour, safe Sheffield Hallam - Labour, more comfortably Sheffield North and Ecclesfield - Labour, safe Sheffield South - Labour, safe Sheffield South East - Labour, safe Shipley - Tory, safely Skipton & Ripon - Tory, unchanged South Calderdale & Queensbury - Tory, maj 10,000+? Thirsk & Malton - Tory, largely unchanged Wakefield - Tory, relatively comfortably Wakefield Rural - Tory, maj ~2000 Wentworth & Hoyland - Labour, maj ~3000 York Central - Labour, relatively unchanged York Outer - Tory, relatively unchanged whats the current total? 28 to 26 so Labour down four. The 'new' Halifax likely Labour by 9,000 whereas South Calderdale Tory by 14,000. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 18, 2019 14:33:03 GMT
Northern Ireland: Solid DUP: Antrim East, Antrim West, Dalriada, Down West, Strangford DUP marginals: Belfast East (Alliance), Glenshane (Sinn Fein) Sinn Fein marginals: Belfast South West (SDLP), Fermanagh and South Tyrone (UUP), Upper Bann and Blackwater (DUP) Solid SDLP: Foyle Alliance marginals: Down North (DUP) Once I have finished tallying the UK, I shall be able to do a complete notional for 2019 Those aren't the final NI proposals, which have 4 Belfast seats. (And this liking some people have for switching the word order in compass point + county names comes across as particularly hideous with County Down. Please, it's "North Down", not "Down North".) Democratic Unionist wins: East Antrim, South Antrim, West Antrim, East Belfast, Dalriada, West Down, Glenshane, Strangford, Sinn Fein wins: North West Belfast, South West Belfast, South Down, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Newry and Armagh, North Tyrone, Upper Bann and Blackwater Alliance wins: North Down SDLP wins: Foyle |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,870
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Post by Crimson King on Dec 18, 2019 15:25:05 GMT
perhaps more interestingly, what do we think will happen with this? AIUI the recomendations could be laid bedore parliament and voted through. or they could be voted out, in which case the commission simply start again anyway with the same rules, or there will have to be primary legislation to amend or replace the current rules, after which presumably the boundary commission set off under the new rules. I assume the second is unlikely - if the government are happy with a 600 seat HoC they might as well vote the existing proposals through
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Post by greenhert on Dec 18, 2019 15:30:20 GMT
Regarding the whole review-it is likely a new review will start since a lot of the non-metropolitan Labour seats that would have disappeared under this review are now Conservative seats; one will disappear in North Lincolnshire, Cumbria, Staffordshire, Teesside and Northumberland amongst areas with significant Conservative gains this year. North Lincolnshire, Cumbria and Staffordshire have no Labour MPs left and Teesside now has only 3 Labour MPs across its 6 constituencies.
There is no longer any reason to split up Great Grimsby either-that was just an anti-Labour gerrymander under the 2018 review.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Dec 18, 2019 17:17:36 GMT
perhaps more interestingly, what do we think will happen with this? AIUI the recomendations could be laid bedore parliament and voted through. or they could be voted out, in which case the commission simply start again anyway with the same rules, or there will have to be primary legislation to amend or replace the current rules, after which presumably the boundary commission set off under the new rules. I assume the second is unlikely - if the government are happy with a 600 seat HoC they might as well vote the existing proposals through According to the 2011 Act the Commissions are supposed to complete another review for 600 seats under the current rules by October 2023, using December 2020 data, which I assume will be in time for the next election. So they may well not bother to do anything and just let that review start. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 18, 2019 17:28:49 GMT
Against that, a 600 seat review in 2020-23 would cause a lot more problems for the Conservative Party than previously. Also there must be a decent chance that the FTPA is replaced by something allowing the PM a free choice of the date of the next election, rather than holding to May 2024.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 18, 2019 17:51:46 GMT
Against that, a 600 seat review in 2020-23 would cause a lot more problems for the Conservative Party than previously. Also there must be a decent chance that the FTPA is replaced by something allowing the PM a free choice of the date of the next election, rather than holding to May 2024. Such as the manifesto commitment to repeal it? |
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Post by courtenay on Dec 18, 2019 18:22:26 GMT
My best guess for England & Wales. Don't ask for individual results. Contradict or challenge away. | Basildon & E Thurrock | Con | | Bedford | Con | | Billericay | Con | | Braintree | Con | | Brentwood & Ongar | Con | | Broadland & Fakenham | Con | | Broxbourne | Con | | Bury St Edmunds | Con | | C Suffolk | Con | | Cambridge | Lab | | Castle Point | Con | | Chelmsford | Con | | Colchester | Con | | Epping Forest | Con | | Great Yarmouth | Con | | Harlow | Con | | Harwich & Clacton | Con | | Hemel Hempstead | Con | | Hertford & Stortford | Con | | Hertsmere | Con | | Hitchin & Harpenden | Con | | Huntingdon & St Neots | Con | | Ipswich | Con | | Letchworth & Royston | Con | | Luton N & Houghton Regis | Lab | | Luton S | Lab | | Mid Bedfordshire | Con | | Mid Norfolk | Con | | N Norfolk | Con | | NE Bedfordshire | Con | | NE Cambridgeshire | Con | | NE Essex | Con | | Norwich N | Con | | Norwich S | Lab | | NW Cambridgeshire | Con | | NW Norfolk | Con | | Peterborough | Con | | Rayleigh & Wickford | Con | | Rochford & Southend E | Con | | S Cambridgeshire | Con | | S Norfolk | Con | | S Suffolk | Con | | Saffron Walden | Con | | SE Cambridgeshire | Con | | Southend W & Hadleigh | Con | | St Albans | Lib Dem | | Stevenage | Con | | Suffolk Coastal | Con | | SW Bedfordshire | Con | | SW Hertfordshire | Con | | Thetford & Downham Market | Con | | Thurrock | Con | | W Suffolk | Con | | Watford | Con | | Waveney | Con | | Welwyn Hatfield | Con | | Witham & Maldon | Con | | Amber Valley | Con | | Ashfield | Con | | Bassetlaw | Con | | Bolsover | Con | | Boston & Skegness | Con | | Bosworth | Con | | Broxtowe & Hucknall | Con | | Charnwood | Con | | Chesterfield | Lab | | Corby & E Northamptonshire | Con | | Daventry & Lutterworth | Con | | Derby E | Con | | Derby W | Lab | | Derbyshire Dales | Con | | Erewash | Con | | Gainsborough | Con | | Grantham & Stamford | Con | | Harborough Oadby & Wigston | Con | | High Peak | Con | | Kettering | Con | | Leicester E | Lab | | Leicester S | Lab | | Leicester W | Lab | | Lincoln & N Hykeham | Con | | Loughborough & S Rushcliffe | Con | | Louth & Horncastle | Con | | Mansfield | Con | | N Rushcliffe & Clifton | Con | | NE Derbyshire | Con | | Newark | Con | | Northampton N | Con | | Northampton S | Con | | Nottingham E & Carlton | Lab | | Nottingham N | Lab | | Nottingham W & Beeston | Lab | | NW Leicestershire | Con | | Rutland & Melton | Con | | S Derbyshire | Con | | S Holland & Deepings | Con | | S Leicestershire | Con | | S Northamptonshire | Con | | Sherwood | Con | | Sleaford | Con | | Wellingborough & Rushden | Con | | Barking & Beckton | Lab | | Battersea & Clapham | Lab | | Beckenham | Con | | Bermondsey & Old Southwark | Lab | | Bexley & Sidcup | Con | | Brixton & Vauxhall | Lab | | Bromley & Chislehurst | Con | | Camberwell & Peckham | Lab | | Camden & St Pancras | Lab | | Carshalton & Wallington | Con | | Chingford & Woodford Green | Con | | Chipping Barnet | Con | | Cities of London & Westminster | Con | | Croydon SE | Con | | Croydon SW | Con | | Dagenham & Rainham | Lab | | Dulwich & Sydenham | Lab | | Ealing C & Acton | Lab | | Ealing N & Sudbury | Lab | | East Ham | Lab | | Edmonton | Lab | | Eltham & E Wickham | Con | | Enfield | Lab | | Erith & Crayford | Con | | Feltham & Hounslow | Lab | | Finchley & Enfield Southgate | Lab | | Finsbury Park & Stoke Newington | Lab | | Greenwich & Deptford | Lab | | Hackney | Lab | | Hammersmith & Fulham | Lab | | Hampstead | Lab | | Harrow N | Con | | Harrow S & Kenton | Lab | | Hayes & Harlington | Lab | | Hendon | Con | | Hornchurch & Upminster | Con | | Hornsey | Lab | | Ilford N & Wanstead | Lab | | Ilford S | Lab | | Isleworth Brentford & Chiswick | Lab | | Islington S & Finsbury | Lab | | Kensington & Chelsea | Con | | Kingston & Surbiton | Lib Dem | | Lewisham & Catford | Lab | | Leyton & Stratford | Lab | | Mitcham & Norbury | Lab | | Norwood & Thornton Heath | Lab | | Orpington | Con | | Paddington & Queens Park | Lab | | Poplar & Canning Town | Lab | | Putney & Wandsworth Town | Lab | | Richmond Park | Lib Dem | | Romford | Con | | Ruislip Northwood & Pinner | Con | | Shoreditch & Bethnal Green | Lab | | Southall & Heston | Lab | | Stepney & Bow | Lab | | Streatham & Brixton Hill | Lab | | Sutton & Cheam | Con | | Tooting & Balham | Lab | | Tottenham | Lab | | Twickenham | Lib Dem | | Uxbridge & Northolt | Con | | Walthamstow | Lab | | Wembley | Lab | | Willesden & Shepherds Bush | Lab | | Wimbledon | Con | | Woolwich | Lab | | Berwick & Morpeth | Con | | Billingham & Sedgefield | Lab | | Bishop Auckland | Con | | Blaydon | Lab | | Blyth & Ashington | Lab | | City of Durham & Easington | Lab | | Darlington | Con | | Gateshead | Lab | | Hartlepool | Lab | | Hexham & Cramlington | Con | | Houghton & Seaham | Lab | | Jarrow | Lab | | Middlesbrough & Eston | Lab | | Middlesbrough S & Thornaby | Con | | N Durham | Lab | | N Tyneside | Lab | | Newcastle upon Tyne E | Lab | | Newcastle upon Tyne NW | Lab | | NW Durham | Lab | | Redcar & E Cleveland | Con | | S Shields | Lab | | Stockton & Yarm | Con | | Sunderland C | Lab | | Tynemouth | Lab | | Washington & Sunderland W | Lab | | Altrincham & Knutsford | Con | | Ashton under Lyne & Stalybridge | Lab | | Barrow & Furness | Con | | Birkenhead | Lab | | Blackburn | Lab | | Blackley & Broughton | Lab | | Blackpool N & Fleetwood | Con | | Blackpool S | Con | | Bolton NE | Lab | | Bolton W | Con | | Bootle | Lab | | Bramhall & Wilmslow | Con | | Burnley | Lab | | Bury | Con | | Carlisle | Con | | Chorley | Speaker | | City of Chester | Lab | | Congleton | Con | | Crewe & Nantwich | Con | | Eddisbury | Con | | Ellesmere Port & Neston | Lab | | Farnworth & Radcliffe | Lab | | Fylde | Con | | Garston & Halewood | Lab | | Hyndburn | Con | | Knowsley | Lab | | Lancaster & Morecambe | Lab | | Leigh | Con | | Littleborough & Saddleworth | Con | | Liverpool Riverside | Lab | | Liverpool Wavertree | Lab | | Liverpool West Derby | Lab | | Macclesfield | Con | | Makerfield | Lab | | Manchester C | Lab | | Manchester Gorton | Lab | | Manchester Withington | Lab | | Marple & Hyde | Con | | N Lancashire | Con | | Oldham N | Lab | | Oldham S & Droylsden | Lab | | Pendle & Ribble Valley | Con | | Penrith & Solway | Con | | Preston | Lab | | Prestwich & Middleton | Lab | | Rochdale | Lab | | Rossendale & Darwen | Con | | S Ribble | Con | | Salford & Eccles | Lab | | Sefton C | Lab | | Southport | Con | | St Helens N | Lab | | St Helens S & Whiston | Lab | | Stockport E & Denton | Lab | | Stockport W & Cheadle | Con | | Stretford & Urmston | Lab | | W Cumbria | Con | | W Lancashire | Lab | | Wallasey | Lab | | Warrington N | Lab | | Warrington S | Con | | Weaver Vale | Con | | Westmorland & Lonsdale | Con | | Widnes & Runcorn | Lab | | Wigan | Lab | | Wirral W & Bebington | Con | | Worsley & Eccles S | Lab | | Wythenshawe & Sale E | Lab | | Abingdon & Oxford N | Lib Dem | | Aldershot | Con | | Arundel & S Downs | Con | | Ashford | Con | | Aylesbury | Con | | Banbury | Con | | Basingstoke | Con | | Beaconsfield | Con | | Bexhill & Battle | Con | | Bognor Regis & Littlehampton | Con | | Bracknell | Con | | Brighton Kemptown & Seahaven | Con | | Brighton Pavilion | Green | | Buckingham & Milton Keynes W | Con | | Canterbury & Faversham | Con | | Chatham & Malling | Con | | Chesham & Amersham | Con | | Chichester | Con | | Crawley | Con | | Dartford | Con | | Dover & Deal | Con | | E Hampshire | Con | | E Oxfordshire | Con | | E Surrey | Con | | E Thanet | Con | | E Worthing & Shoreham | Con | | Eastbourne | Con | | Eastleigh | Con | | Epsom & Ewell | Con | | Esher & Walton | Con | | Fareham | Con | | Folkestone & Hythe | Con | | Gillingham & Rainham | Con | | Gosport | Con | | Gravesham | Con | | Guildford | Con | | Hastings & Rye | Con | | Havant | Con | | Horsham | Con | | Hove & Regency | Lab | | Isle of Wight E | Con | | Isle of Wight W | Con | | Lewes & W Wealden | Con | | Maidenhead | Con | | Maidstone | Con | | Mid Sussex | Con | | Milton Keynes NE | Con | | Milton Keynes S | Con | | Mole Valley | Con | | N Kent Coastal | Con | | NE Hampshire | Con | | New Forest E | Con | | New Forest W | Con | | Newbury | Con | | NW Hampshire | Con | | Oxford | Lab | | Portsmouth N | Con | | Portsmouth S | Lab | | Reading E | Lab | | Reading W | Con | | Reigate | Con | | Rochester & Strood | Con | | Runnymede & Weybridge | Con | | Sevenoaks | Con | | Sittingbourne & Sheppey | Con | | Slough | Lab | | Southampton Itchen | Con | | Southampton Test | Con | | Spelthorne | Con | | Surrey Heath | Con | | SW Surrey | Con | | Test Valley | Con | | Tonbridge | Con | | Tunbridge Wells & Crowborough | Con | | Wantage | Con | | Weald of Kent | Con | | Winchester | Con | | Windsor | Con | | Witney | Con | | Woking | Con | | Wokingham | Con | | Worthing W | Con | | Wycombe | Con | | Bath | Lib Dem | | Bideford Bude & Launceston | Con | | Bodmin & St Austell | Con | | Bournemouth E | Con | | Bournemouth W | Con | | Bridgwater & W Somerset | Con | | Bristol E | Lab | | Bristol NW | Lab | | Bristol S | Lab | | Bristol W | Lab | | C Devon | Con | | Cheltenham | Con | | Chippenham & N Wiltshire | Con | | Christchurch | Con | | Cotswolds | Con | | Devizes & E Wiltshire | Con | | Dursley Thornbury & Yate | Con | | E Devon | Con | | Exeter | Lab | | Falmouth Camborne & Redruth | Con | | Filton & Bradley Stoke | Con | | Forest of Dean | Con | | Gloucester | Con | | Kingswood | Con | | Mid Dorset | Con | | N Devon | Con | | N Somerset | Con | | N Swindon | Con | | NE Somerset | Con | | Newton Abbot | Con | | Plymouth Moor View | Con | | Plymouth Sutton & Devonport | Lab | | Plympton Tavistock & Ivybridge | Con | | Poole | Con | | S Dorset | Con | | S Swindon | Con | | Salisbury | Con | | SE Cornwall | Con | | Somerton & Frome | Con | | St Ives | Con | | Stroud | Con | | Taunton Deane | Con | | Tewkesbury | Con | | Tiverton & Honiton | Con | | Torbay | Con | | Totnes | Con | | Trowbridge & W Wiltshire | Con | | Truro & Newquay | Con | | W Dorset | Con | | Warminster & Shaftesbury | Con | | Wells | Con | | Weston super Mare | Con | | Yeovil & S Somerset | Con | | Aldridge Brownhills & Bloxwich | Con | | Birmingham Edgbaston & Selly Oak | Lab | | Birmingham Erdington & Perry Barr | Lab | | Birmingham Hall Green | Lab | | Birmingham Hodge Hill | Lab | | Birmingham Kings Heath | Lab | | Birmingham Ladywood | Lab | | Birmingham Northfield | Con | | Birmingham Yardley | Lab | | Bridgnorth & Wrekin | Con | | Bromsgrove & Droitwich | Con | | Burton | Con | | Cannock Chase | Con | | Coventry E | Lab | | Coventry NW | Lab | | Coventry S & Kenilworth | Con | | Darlaston & Tipton | Lab | | Dudley | Con | | Evesham | Con | | Halesowen & Rowley Regis | Con | | Hereford & S Herefordshire | Con | | Lichfield | Con | | Ludlow & Leominster | Con | | Malvern & Ledbury | Con | | Meriden | Con | | N Shropshire | Con | | N Warwickshire | Con | | Newcastle under Lyme | Con | | Nuneaton | Con | | Redditch | Con | | Rugby & Southam | Con | | S Staffordshire | Con | | Shrewsbury | Con | | Solihull | Con | | Stafford | Con | | Staffordshire Moorlands | Con | | Stoke C | Con | | Stoke N & Kidsgrove | Con | | Stoke S & Stone | Con | | Stourbridge | Con | | Stratford on Avon | Con | | Sutton Coldfield | Con | | Tamworth | Con | | Telford | Con | | Walsall & Oscott | Con | | Warley | Lab | | Warwick & Leamington | Con | | West Bromwich | Lab | | Wolverhampton S & Coseley | Con | | Wolverhampton W | Con | | Wolverhampton NE & Willenhall | Con | | Worcester | Con | | Wyre Forest | Con | | Barnsley E & Hemsworth | Lab | | Barnsley W & Stocksbridge | Lab | | Batley & Morley | Con | | Beverley & Holderness | Con | | Bradford N | Lab | | Bradford S | Lab | | Bradford SE & Spen | Con | | Cleethorpes & Grimsby S | Con | | Colne Valley & Penistone | Con | | Dewsbury | Con | | Don Valley | Con | | Doncaster C | Lab | | Doncaster N | Lab | | E Yorkshire | Con | | Elmet & Rothwell | Con | | Goole Howden & Axholme | Con | | Grimsby N & Barton | Con | | Halifax & N Calderdale | Lab | | Harrogate & Knaresborough | Con | | Huddersfield | Lab | | Hull E | Lab | | Hull N | Lab | | Hull W & Haltemprice | Con | | Keighley | Con | | Leeds C | Lab | | Leeds E | Lab | | Leeds NE | Lab | | Leeds NW | Lab | | Normanton Pontefract & Castleford | Lab | | Pudsey | Lab | | Richmond | Con | | Rother Valley | Con | | Rotherham | Lab | | S Calderdale & Queensbury | Con | | Scarborough & Whitby | Con | | Scunthorpe | Con | | Selby & Ainsty | Con | | Sheffield C | Lab | | Sheffield Hallam | Lab | | Sheffield N & Ecclesfield | Lab | | Sheffield S | Lab | | Sheffield SE | Lab | | Shipley | Con | | Skipton & Ripon | Con | | Thirsk & Malton | Con | | Wakefield | Con | | Wakefield Rural | Con | | Wentworth & Hoyland | Lab | | York C | Lab | | York Outer | Con | | Alyn & Deeside | Lab | | Blaenau Gwent | Lab | | Brecon, Radnor & Montgomery | Con | | Bridgend & Vale of Glamorgan W | Con | | Caerfyrddin | Con | | Caerphilly | Lab | | Cardiff N | Lab | | Cardiff SE | Lab | | Cardiff W | Lab | | Ceredigion & Gogledd Sir Benfro | Con | | Conwy & Colwyn | Con | | Cynon Valley & Pontypridd | Lab | | De Clwyd & Gogledd Maldwyn | Con | | Flint & Rhuddlan | Con | | Gower & Swansea W | Lab | | Gwynedd | Plaid | | Llanelli | Lab | | Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney | Lab | | Mid & S Pembrokeshire | Con | | Monmouthshire | Con | | Neath | Lab | | Newport | Lab | | Ogmore & Aberavon | Lab | | Rhondda & Llantrisant | Lab | | Swansea E | Lab | | Torfaen | Lab | | Vale of Glamorgan E | Con | | Wrexham | Con | | Ynys Mon & Bangor | Lab |
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Post by courtenay on Dec 18, 2019 18:47:46 GMT
I make that C 345 L 176 LibD 6 Green 1 Plaid 1 Speaker 1
Compared to the election C 359 L 201 LibD 7 Green 1 Plaid 4 Speaker 1
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Dec 18, 2019 23:31:01 GMT
Against that, a 600 seat review in 2020-23 would cause a lot more problems for the Conservative Party than previously. Also there must be a decent chance that the FTPA is replaced by something allowing the PM a free choice of the date of the next election, rather than holding to May 2024. I would remark that one of those problems in particular is that, if I understand the expected review timetable, the results of the review would only be laid before Parliament in autumn 2023, about 7 or 8 months before the due date for the election. Assuming that the new review is carried out under the same rules as the 2018 review, its proposals would seem likely to contain just as many constituencies split between local authorities - and would be very difficult to implement without errors on that short a timescale. This is probably the time at which to repeat something that I previously posted on another thread but relates to this question and is probably far more apposite here: I think this will make reducing the number of MPs to 600 very difficult. Can we find 365 winnable-enough seats (less a few for people we can pension off with peerages) for the current Conservative MPs? On 650, it would be uncontroversial, but 600 is just an unnecessary battle for now – it would just be asking for a massive backbench rebellion to vote down the proposals. Also, using boundaries from the 2018 review, based on December 2015 registers, for a May 2024 election (if the FTPA is still in place) or thereabouts (even if the FTPA is repealed, I'd still imagine that a PM with a stable majority won't want to go to the country before spring 2024) is likely to lead to some of the problems that the review was meant to be getting rid of. For instance, on the 2015 register, Hendon constituency was below quota and had a ward added to it to bring it within quota. Now, I haven't got its registered electorate for last Thursday's general election to hand, but I gather that, as a result of still-incomplete new development, without the extra ward the electorate was within a thousand of 80,000. Add in the extra ward, and the electorate now would have been a bit over 90,000 - and completion of the development will add a few more thousand to this. My suggestion would be that getting a new ROTP bill through Parliament, preferably with all-party support, should be an immediate priority once the WAB has been debated and passed (as it presumably now will be). The bill should require the Boundaries Commission to report in 2022; incorporate the proposals from Afzal Khan bill (650 MPs, and up to 7% variance on quota, to allow for rather more use of local authority boundaries than the 2018 review); and should be based on the registers from last Thursday's general election (as the review would standardly be using December 2019 registers already, and using the general election registers will include a number of late applicants who were entitled to be registered anyway). |
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 19, 2019 9:50:50 GMT
Against that, a 600 seat review in 2020-23 would cause a lot more problems for the Conservative Party than previously. Also there must be a decent chance that the FTPA is replaced by something allowing the PM a free choice of the date of the next election, rather than holding to May 2024. I would remark that one of those problems in particular is that, if I understand the expected review timetable, the results of the review would only be laid before Parliament in autumn 2023, about 7 or 8 months before the due date for the election. Assuming that the new review is carried out under the same rules as the 2018 review, its proposals would seem likely to contain just as many constituencies split between local authorities - and would be very difficult to implement without errors on that short a timescale. This is probably the time at which to repeat something that I previously posted on another thread but relates to this question and is probably far more apposite here: Also, using boundaries from the 2018 review, based on December 2015 registers, for a May 2024 election (if the FTPA is still in place) or thereabouts (even if the FTPA is repealed, I'd still imagine that a PM with a stable majority won't want to go to the country before spring 2024) is likely to lead to some of the problems that the review was meant to be getting rid of. For instance, on the 2015 register, Hendon constituency was below quota and had a ward added to it to bring it within quota. Now, I haven't got its registered electorate for last Thursday's general election to hand, but I gather that, as a result of still-incomplete new development, without the extra ward the electorate was within a thousand of 80,000. Add in the extra ward, and the electorate now would have been a bit over 90,000 - and completion of the development will add a few more thousand to this. My suggestion would be that getting a new ROTP bill through Parliament, preferably with all-party support, should be an immediate priority once the WAB has been debated and passed (as it presumably now will be). The bill should require the Boundaries Commission to report in 2022; incorporate the proposals from Afzal Khan bill (650 MPs, and up to 7% variance on quota, to allow for rather more use of local authority boundaries than the 2018 review); and should be based on the registers from last Thursday's general election (as the review would standardly be using December 2019 registers already, and using the general election registers will include a number of late applicants who were entitled to be registered anyway). That would obviously be fair and unobjectionable, and would have all party support. Therefore it won’t happen. |
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Post by greenhert on Dec 19, 2019 11:47:04 GMT
Another reason a new review needs to be started is because of the fact that there were several mergers in local government terms in 2019, including a complete reorganisation of Dorset. Also, there have been extensive boundary changes in many of the larger local government areas e.g. London boroughs.
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Post by greatkingrat on Dec 19, 2019 12:02:12 GMT
There's always somewhere that has just had ward boundaries changed though.
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