Ugandan General Elections

[greenchristian]

Happening this Thursday, for both President and Parliament.

President Yoweri Museveni (NRM) is seeking another term, and is challenged by eight opponents. The main challenger (Kizza Besigye) has threatened violence if he doesn't win.

[Devil Wincarnate]

"Top Christian invites forum members for Ugandan discussions"!

[LDCaerdydd]

Kizza Besigye is being held by the police, but apparently not arrested.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35577300

[Merseymike]

Thoroughly unpleasant banana Republic. Will the challenger be any better? Doubt it.

[Deleted]

Feb 15, 2016 21:51:28 GMT Merseymike said:

Thoroughly unpleasant banana Republic. Will the challenger be any better? Doubt it.

Dr. Besigye was Museveni's personal physician during the Bush War in the early and mid 80s and became an NRM minister afterwards. He challenged Museveni in the 2001, 2006, and 2011 presidential elections and probably won the two first (the Supreme Court both times ruled 5–0 that there was widespread cheating, but also ruled 3–2 and 4-3 respectively against nullifying the results). He got a thrashing in the 2011 elections, which were fairly fair and was rumored on his way to retirement, but then changed his mind.

Like NRM FDC is a Conservative party (Besigye is one of the many VPs in the International Democrat Union, which includes both the CDU, the Tories and - ironically - the GOP), but is less neoliberal than NRM. He is running on a platform of "economic empowerment of the people" (more municipal freedom, cheap loans to start businesses or buy land for etc.) and democratization. He noticeable opposed the infamous "Kill the Gays bill" and is unpopular with Christian fundamentalists.

He is also in favour of fewer military adventures abroad, but still wants Uganda to be a strong regional player. This article has a good overview of Uganda's importance in the politics of the region, where its pulling well above its weight and is a key power player:
www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/All-eyes-on-Uganda-as-tight-election-race-enters-last-mile-/-/2558/3075046/-/933hn8/-/index.html

The East African is normally reliable, and the article says the polls are fairly close, but they likely don't have decent polling.

Former PM (2011-14) and ex-National Resistance Movement SG Amama Mbabazi, who is running a "more of the same, but better" campaign, has siphoned off votes from Museveni. Mbabazi was sacked as PM in 2014 and declared his intentions to run against Museveni for the National Resistance Movement's nomination for president at the party’s convention in October last year. Museveni dismissed this as "bad conduct and premature" (= I am not going anywhere). After failing to build a strong enough coalition within "The Movement" to challenge Museveni Mbabazi then decided to stand as an independent backed by The Democratic Alliance, a loose coalition of various opposition groups, some NGOs and prominent people (incl. ex-NRM brass and regime cronies).

It would be a sensation if Museveni lost this (I highly doubt he wouldn't rig it if there was any danger of that), but the parliamentary election could get close with a split in the old NRM vote and there is a higher chance it will reflect the actual vote.

[Dan]

Current Parliament:

National Resistance Movement - 259 seats
Independents - 43 seats
Forum for Democratic Change - 36 seats
Democratic - 15 seats
Ex-Officio Members representatives - 13 seats
Ugandan People's Defence Forces representatives - 10 seats
Ugandan People's Congress - 10 seats
Conservative - 1 seat
Justice Forum - 1 seat

government majority of 130

Last Presidential election:

Yoweri Museveni (National Resistance Movement) - 68.4%
Kizza Besigye (Forum for Democratic Change) - 26.0%
6 others candidates - 5.6%

[Tony Otim]

Feb 14, 2016 19:29:56 GMT greenchristian said:

Happening this Thursday, for both President and Parliament.

President Yoweri Museveni (NRM) is seeking another term, and is challenged by eight opponents. The main challenger (Kizza Besigye) has threatened violence if he doesn't win.

Do you have a source for this? Or in other words has he explicitly threatened violence or is he just being accused of so doing, which may not be the same thing.

I haven't been to Uganda since 2006, but had visited a few times between 1999 and then. Even by that point, the tide of opinion was turning against Museveni, especially amongst the young. Many of the older generation remained stubbornly loyal to him. In order to understand that, you need to appreciate that following the two periods of Obote and Amin, Museveni did provide an extended and unexpected period of relative peace and stability (the exception being the actions of the totally evil LRA in the North). For a long while he seemed to be moving the country in a largely positive direction. If he could have been persuaded to move aside with dignity at the end of the 90s, his legacy may have been mostly positive. Unfortunately since then, he's fallen into the pattern of hanging onto power at almost any costs, intimidation of opponents through use of police and media, not to mention unwise foreign adventures into the Congo and elsewhere. It really has been rather depressing to see.

Which isn't to say that Besigye doesn't have enough skeletons in his closet. He does, however, deserve some respect for his opposition to the Anti-Homosexuality Bill, which will alienate a significant section of the population from supporting him.

[greenchristian]

Feb 16, 2016 13:16:10 GMT Tony Otim said:

Feb 14, 2016 19:29:56 GMT greenchristian said:

Happening this Thursday, for both President and Parliament.

President Yoweri Museveni (NRM) is seeking another term, and is challenged by eight opponents. The main challenger (Kizza Besigye) has threatened violence if he doesn't win.

Do you have a source for this? Or in other words has he explicitly threatened violence or is he just being accused of so doing, which may not be the same thing.

My source was somebody who's recently been in Uganda, helping to train a group of church leaders from Uganda and surrounding countries.

[Deleted]

Feb 16, 2016 16:17:57 GMT greenchristian said:

Feb 16, 2016 13:16:10 GMT Tony Otim said:

Do you have a source for this? Or in other words has he explicitly threatened violence or is he just being accused of so doing, which may not be the same thing.

My source was somebody who's recently been in Uganda, helping to train a group of church leaders from Uganda and surrounding countries.

It might be more correct to say he has said he can not control his supporters if the government rigs the elections again (as the SC ruled they did in 2001 and 2006). Whether that is a warning or a threat is up for interpretation.

Even so the government has routinely accused him of all sorts of things throughout the years, from rape to being in cahoots with the Lord's Resistance Army.

Guardian had this decent article:
www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/13/uganda-challenger-museveni-president-besigye

"Besigye says that violence or an Arab spring is not what Uganda needs. However, citing the brutality of security agents, the arrests and disappearance of opposition supporters, he says that Museveni’s actions are illegal and that “it is the duty of Ugandans to stand up in defiance and challenge him”."

Adrian Jjuuko, executive director at the Human Rights Awareness and Promotion Forum (HRAPF), a local NGO:
- “The whole process is flawed from the beginning, and voting day simply rubber-stamps an already made decision.”
- “Presidential elections are a ritual that we must go through every five years.”

[Deleted]

Big uneven win (likely to big..). Besigye takes "Metro Kampala" (Kampala + Wakiso District) and Acholi. Mbabazi only got 1.5%, so not the split in the NRM vote which was expected. Opposition HQ stormed and ransacked - Besigye held in custody. Violence seems unavoidable, the question is how bad it will be.

results.ug

www.newvision.co.ug/new_vision/news/1417584/uganda-decides-live-election-results

www.dw.com/en/ugandan-police-storm-opposition-headquarters-after-general-election/a-190611016

[Deleted]

State media report that 17 ministers and junior ministers have lost their parliamentary seats in Uganda.

The most prominent casualties are:

Minister of Defence - Crispus Kiyonga

Minister of Justice - Kahinda Otafiire

Minister of Information - Jim Muhwezi

Minister of Education - Jessica Alupo

Attorney General - Fred Ruhindi

Minister of Housing - Sam Engola

Minister of Energy - Irene Muloni

[Deleted]

The Electoral Commission chairman announced Museveni as the winner of the 2016 presidential elections with 5,617,503 votes = 60.75%.

Results from 1,787 polling stations were left out because they came in after a 48-hour deadline (sic).

The opposition obviously won't acknowledge the legitimacy of this result.

From the EU observer press release:

"Voters actively participated in campaign events and expressed a remarkable determination while waiting for long hours on the election day to cast their ballots.

However, the National Resistance Movement's domination of the political landscape distorted the fairness of the campaign and state actors created an intimidating atmosphere for both voters and candidates, which continued in the days immediately following elections."

And then there is the counting ..

The parliamentary results will be interesting, but little reason for optimism.

[johnloony]

bump

[yellowperil]

Presumably the bump is to enable us to examine the 2021 version, so maybe we need a change of title if the OP is so minded?greenchristian?  Simply Ugandan general elections?

Very little to add except for the boring predictability of it all. And before we cast too many aspersions at Uganda, you just have to look at the United States. Tyrants do not give up power readily, all over the world.

[The Bishop]

Another place has the phrase "electoral type event" for this sort of thing.

[WJ]