Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2016 14:44:06 GMT
On the 25th of February Jamaica will elect 63 members to their House of Representatives using FPTP. The winning party then gets 13 seats in the Senate, the losers 8. They got a two party system and since this is the Caribbean the Conservatives are called Labour and the Social Democrats the People's National Party. www.caribbeanelections.com/elections/jm_elections.asp  |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2016 15:06:56 GMT
A couple of local academics trying to be "scientific" about their forecast: jamaica-gleaner.com/article/lead-stories/20160207/forecasting-2016-general-election"Forecasting an event requires looking at the frequency of its occurrence and the current factors that are likely to lead to this outcome, and quantifying this uncertainty with a probability estimate ranging from zero to 100.
The forecast of November 15, 2015 favoured the People's National Party (PNP).
It started with the two parties having a 50-50 probability of winning based on the dead heat in the polls in previous elections." |
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Dan
Animal Welfare Party
Believes we need more localism in our politics
Posts: 813
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Post by Dan on Feb 16, 2016 11:44:06 GMT
Current Parliament:
People's National Party - 42 seats
Jamaica Labour Party - 21 seats
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961 
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Post by mondialito on Feb 25, 2016 22:23:46 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 25, 2016 22:57:34 GMT
Here's a map I made last time around:  |
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Feb 26, 2016 0:16:11 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2016 0:18:51 GMT
To quote the last Freedom House report: "Powerful criminal gangs in some urban neighborhoods maintain influence over voter turnout in return for political favors, which has called into question the legitimacy of election results in those areas."
Does anyone of you know which areas are too influenced by the posses to be genuine elections? Are there entire constituencies where the results are de facto determined by the posses?
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 26, 2016 0:23:52 GMT
The Kingston City constituencies have a particularly bad rep.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Feb 26, 2016 0:55:59 GMT
Kingston and St. Andrew would be most affected I would imagine. The affected constituencies are known as garrison seats and the 'winning' party (be they green or orange) could easily get 90% of the vote there.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Feb 26, 2016 1:07:48 GMT
All constituencies now counting. JLP currently leading in 33, PNP in 30. None declared as yet.
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