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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Jan 11, 2016 2:23:52 GMT
Were I to predict at the moment given the phoney canvass war that has been going on for the past year effectively in the absence of the election being called I would predict: FG 54 FF 36 SF 26 Lab 12 PBP/AAA 5 SD 3 RENUA 1 GRN 1 IND 20 When we have final candidate slates I will predict by constituency. Poll will be by end February and will dissolve Dáil likely first week Feb. Kenny wants to be back for the 100th anniversary of Easter 1916. I would say that's.... extremely optimistic... from a Fianna Fail point of view. Oh, and on Renua and the PDs note that Renua are running on a platform far more extreme than anything than the PDs ever ran on. Their main proposal is a 23% flat tax which, if implemented, would require cuts the likes of which we haven't seen at all even over the past 8 years. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 11, 2016 2:46:48 GMT
I was at a loss until the above post after which I promptly voted Renua.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 13, 2016 11:37:32 GMT
Here's Fianna Fáil, raising the tone and the level of respect for your opponents:  |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 13, 2016 22:21:51 GMT
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jan 13, 2016 22:50:01 GMT
Here's Fianna Fáil, raising the tone and the level of respect for your opponents: The original poster from 2007:  I'm not sure whether it's effective; but the tone is no more disrespectful than the usual standards of inter-party "dialogue" here (FG themselves being no slouches at mud-throwing when avoiding answering awkward questions). |
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Post by greenchristian on Jan 13, 2016 23:12:44 GMT
Somewhat unsurprisingly I'd still vote Pirate (it's great this whole having the same Party across borders thing... :-) ) The problem with that being that sometimes your sister party across the border isn't always as close to your party as you'd think. For example, the Irish general election of 2011 happened to co-incide with the England and Wales Green Party conference. When the Irish Greens got wiped out, the general reaction of people at our conference was that the Irish Greens had deserved that for abandoning Green principles in the coalition deal they'd formed with Fianna Fail. The Pirates are still young enough that the various national parties won't have diverged that much from each other yet, but don't assume it won't ever happen. I can't say I've been following Irish politics at all, but I suspect that I'd be torn between giving my first preference to the Greens and giving it to the Anti-Austerity Alliance. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jan 14, 2016 0:15:46 GMT
Renua's economic position with Labour's social position. But neither in totality, so Fine Gael as the better out of Shit and Shite. Are you entitled to a vote, Arthur? |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jan 14, 2016 6:01:40 GMT
Renua's economic position with Labour's social position. But neither in totality, so Fine Gael as the better out of Shit and Shite. Are you entitled to a vote, Arthur? Thankfully not- the border was drawn just to the south of my home town. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jan 14, 2016 6:58:25 GMT
But as a Norn Iron native you can get an Irish passport, no?
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jan 14, 2016 7:11:47 GMT
But as a Norn Iron native you can get an Irish passport, no? In theory. Complicated by the fact I was born in London. I'd probably need to get my father to get one first. Funnily enough, it's not something I've looked into in detail! |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jan 14, 2016 7:26:14 GMT
But as a Norn Iron native you can get an Irish passport, no? In theory. Complicated by the fact I was born in London. I'd probably need to get my father to get one first. Funnily enough, it's not something I've looked into in detail! I'm also eligible for one if I jump through some hoops but I've never even looked into it. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 14, 2016 11:13:31 GMT
Here's Fianna Fáil, raising the tone and the level of respect for your opponents: I would rather hammer rusty nails into my scrotum than vote FF, but that looks perfectly legitimate and indeed quite an effective "attack" ad. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2016 12:00:52 GMT
Somewhat unsurprisingly I'd still vote Pirate (it's great this whole having the same Party across borders thing... :-) ) The problem with that being that sometimes your sister party across the border isn't always as close to your party as you'd think. For example, the Irish general election of 2011 happened to co-incide with the England and Wales Green Party conference. When the Irish Greens got wiped out, the general reaction of people at our conference was that the Irish Greens had deserved that for abandoning Green principles in the coalition deal they'd formed with Fianna Fail. The Pirates are still young enough that the various national parties won't have diverged that much from each other yet, but don't assume it won't ever happen. It's also notable that the Irish Greens, at least during their 'heyday', tended to be supported by somewhat different demographics than their counterparts in Britain. Most of their TDs in 2007 were elected from outer Dublin suburban constituencies -- a bit like if the Scottish Greens generally did best in seats like Edinburgh West or Dunbartonshire East. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2016 12:37:34 GMT
The problem with that being that sometimes your sister party across the border isn't always as close to your party as you'd think. For example, the Irish general election of 2011 happened to co-incide with the England and Wales Green Party conference. When the Irish Greens got wiped out, the general reaction of people at our conference was that the Irish Greens had deserved that for abandoning Green principles in the coalition deal they'd formed with Fianna Fail. The Pirates are still young enough that the various national parties won't have diverged that much from each other yet, but don't assume it won't ever happen. It's also notable that the Irish Greens, at least during their 'heyday', tended to be supported by somewhat different demographics than their counterparts in Britain. Most of their TDs in 2007 were elected from outer Dublin suburban constituencies -- a bit like if the Scottish Greens generally did best in seats like Edinburgh West or Dunbartonshire East. that's due to most Green voters are white, middle class and read the guardian. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2016 12:55:18 GMT
It's also notable that the Irish Greens, at least during their 'heyday', tended to be supported by somewhat different demographics than their counterparts in Britain. Most of their TDs in 2007 were elected from outer Dublin suburban constituencies -- a bit like if the Scottish Greens generally did best in seats like Edinburgh West or Dunbartonshire East. that's due to most Green voters are white, middle class and read the guardian. In Britain, Ireland or both? Not that that's necessarily not true, but my point was that the demographics are or were somewhat different: suburbs of detached houses where almost everybody has a car is rarely natural Green territory in Britain, but the Irish Greens apparently did well in such areas in 2007. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2016 16:56:50 GMT
I would rather hammer rusty nails into my scrotum than vote FF, but that looks perfectly legitimate and indeed quite an effective "attack" ad. I've also seen a Labour ad which has a gay wedding between Micheal Martin and Gerry Adams saying that this is one marriage you shouldn't vote Yes to. Is there a tradition of negative campaigning in Irish elections or is this a new thing? There's a tradition of bareknuckle fighting in Irish elections; this is quite genteel in comparison. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 14, 2016 17:10:16 GMT
I've also seen a Labour ad which has a gay wedding between Micheal Martin and Gerry Adams saying that this is one marriage you shouldn't vote Yes to. Is there a tradition of negative campaigning in Irish elections or is this a new thing? There's a tradition of bareknuckle fighting in Irish elections; this is quite genteel in comparison. I suppose it misses the Marmite characters of past elections. Dame Enda just isn't that dislikeable. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 14, 2016 19:59:52 GMT
But as a Norn Iron native you can get an Irish passport, no? But the passport alone isn't enough, is it? Partner has an Irish passport, but as I don't think she's ever spent longer than about a fortnight at a time in the Republic, I doubt she'd be eligible. And if she is, where would she even vote? |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 14, 2016 20:13:51 GMT
You cannot vote in Ireland if you don't live in Ireland (exception for diplomats and their family).
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 14, 2016 20:19:45 GMT
Also the absent voting rules in Ireland are quite different, which led to the '#hometovote' phenomenon in the Marriage referendum last year.
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