Vote UK prediction polls 2016

[Deleted]

One or two of you might have noticed I have begun the process of adding prediction polls to the 2016 election threads. It's a work in progress, but do please drop me a message or tag me with any requests for polls or amendments to existing polls. So far I've done the FPTP constituencies to the devolved governments in Scotland, Wales and London, the PCC constituencies and the mayoral contests in London and Bristol.

The voting figures are hidden until you vote, to encourage members to stick their necks out and give it a go, and perhaps encourage a few new members to join up and have their say.

I hope you have fun, and let us all hope we perform slightly better than last time.

[bolbridge]

Where have you done polls so far?

[Deleted]

Jan 1, 2016 20:57:54 GMT bolbridge said:

Where have you done polls so far?

So far I've done the FPTP constituencies to the devolved governments in Scotland, Wales and London, the PCC constituencies and the mayoral contests in London and Bristol.

Since I posted that I've added a few for various councils - though I still have work to do for those. Nothing for the NI Assembly constituencies yet; obviously their voting system and party system make creating prediction polls a much more complex undertaking.

[bolbridge]

Jan 1, 2016 21:27:13 GMT swanarcadian said:

Jan 1, 2016 20:57:54 GMT bolbridge said:

Where have you done polls so far?

So far I've done the FPTP constituencies to the devolved governments in Scotland, Wales and London, the PCC constituencies and the mayoral contests in London and Bristol.

Since I posted that I've added a few for various councils - though I still have work to do for those. Nothing for the NI Assembly constituencies yet; obviously their voting system and party system make creating prediction polls a much more complex undertaking.

I saw that but which constituencies? i could be misunderstanding or doing this wrong but there are plenty of Scottish and Welsh constituencies I can't see polls for (I've voted in BRS).

(and I'm not complaining, I'm just impatient because I love the polls)

[Deleted]

Jan 1, 2016 22:15:49 GMT bolbridge said:

Jan 1, 2016 21:27:13 GMT swanarcadian said:

Since I posted that I've added a few for various councils - though I still have work to do for those. Nothing for the NI Assembly constituencies yet; obviously their voting system and party system make creating prediction polls a much more complex undertaking.

I saw that but which constituencies? i could be misunderstanding or doing this wrong but there are plenty of Scottish and Welsh constituencies I can't see polls for (I've voted in BRS).

(and I'm not complaining, I'm just impatient because I love the polls)

Well just those with a realistic prospect of changing hands of course, unless I've missed some out. Needless to say some of the sub-boards run into multiple pages of threads - I suppose I could bump some of them up to the top. Take a look and feel free to request polls if I've missed any out.

[iain]

Having quickly had a look through the Scottish polls, I would assume you should add one for both Orkney and Shetland, with LD and SNP options (assuming no independents for the time being). Furthermore, if you have Labour as an option for Aberdeen South & North Kincardine then I think it reasonable that there should be both Conservative and Lib Dem options too.

[Deleted]

Jan 1, 2016 23:01:47 GMT iain said:

Having quickly had a look through the Scottish polls, I would assume you should add one for both Orkney and Shetland, with LD and SNP options (assuming no independents for the time being). Furthermore, if you have Labour as an option for Aberdeen South & North Kincardine then I think it reasonable that there should be both Conservative and Lib Dem options too.

I might e-mail the 2011 Independent candidates for both Orkney and Shetland to ask if they (or one of their colleagues) intend to stand again. They're both still sitting councillors. I've held off from adding polls from those for now until I know one way or the other.

I have used opinion polling data from 2011 onwards to decide in which Scottish seats to add polls. At times Labour have polled much better than they're doing at the moment, which is why I've generously put forward several potential Labour targets that might well seem slightly ridiculous now. In reality I can't see anyone else winning Aberdeen S & N Kincardine other than the SNP, although four months is a long time and hope springs eternal.

[iain]

I also cannot see anyone but the SNP winning AS&NK, but I don't really see the logic in having a Labour option, but not one for the Lib Dems or Tories. The Lib Dems appear to be the most able to gain the seat (although I think they will come 4th), while the Tories would surely have been ahead of Labour in May.

Also, some of your Welsh polls are a bit odd. I understand you have just put polls on seats the Tories hold at Westminster, but I'm not sure I see Vale of Clwyd or Gower as necessarily more likely Tory gains than, say, the other Clwyd seats, or Bridgend. I would also ask for polls in Brecon & Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire.

[Deleted]

As I say, it's a work in progress. Watch this space.

[Deleted]

Forum Pollster notice:

A word about some of my prediction polls for this year.

I have recently rejected a request in my private messages to add a Lib Dem gain as an option for the Preseli Pembrokeshire thread, for the simple reason that the Lib Dems do not - and have never - stood any chance of winning the Welsh Assembly constituency of Preseli Pembrokeshire. They secured just 7.7% of the vote and fourth place in that constituency in 2011. They also came fourth there in 1999, 2003 and 2007.

As mentioned upthread, given that there really isn't much else better to go on, I have decided to use opinion polling data from the 2011 elections onwards as a basis for which parties I have included as potential winners of each constituency. Now in the case of Scotland, it is worth remembering that prior to the independence referendum, the polls were much closer than they are now, with Labour actually managing to pull ahead slightly on more than one occasion. This is why I've added options for SNP-held seats that may well seem ridiculously out of place now, but not completely so a couple of years back. And much could change over the next six weeks. And no, I don't think any Conservative candidate has the potential to win Edinburgh Central this year - even with Ruth Davidson as candidate - which is why Con gain isn't an option there.

One last thing, I welcome requests for new polls or amendments to existing ones - and always have. I know I'm not going to get everything right first time. But be nice to me: your requests will be better received if they are made in a friendly, constructive fashion.