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Post by middleenglander on Dec 11, 2015 23:00:37 GMT
Seats last contested in May 2015Guildford, Ash South & Tongham - Conservative hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | 2013 B result | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 540 | 43.2% | -3.3% | -3.3% | unopposed | -29.1% | -31.7% | | Liberal Democrat | 286 | 22.9% | +4.7% | +6.3% | | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP | 153 | 12.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Guildford Greenbelt | 145 | 11.6% | -8.6% | -9.5% | | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 125 | 10.0% | -5.1% | -5.8% | | -17.6% | -15.1% | | Total votes | 1,249 | | 25% | 26% | | 54% | 56% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 4% / 5% since May otherwise not meaningful Council now 35 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 3 Guildford Greenbelt, 1 Labour Malvern Hills, Teme Valley - Conservative hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 | 2011 result | 2007 result | | Conservative | 268 | 63.8% | -8.4% | unopposed | unopposed | | Labour | 96 | 22.9% | from nowhere | | | | UKIP | 56 | 13.3% | -14.4% | | | | Total votes | 420 | | 38% | | |
Swing not meaningful Council now 23 Conservative, 7 Independent, 5 Liberal Democrat, 3 Green South Kesteven, Belvoir - Conservative hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative | 603 | 52.5% | -17.1% | -16.0% | | Independent | 212 | 18.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 175 | 15.2% | -15.1% | -16.3% | | UKIP | 159 | 13.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 1,149 | | 46% | 47% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 45 Conservative, 6 Independent, 3 Labour, 1 UKIP, 1 Unaligned Bournemouth, Kinson South (2 seats) - Conservatives hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 520+509 | 33.9% | +9.3% | +10.4% | -6.7% | -5.9% | | Labour | 471+371 | 27.7% | +5.3% | +6.7% | -18.1% | -19.0% | | UKIP | 313 | 20.6% | -4.7% | -5.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Bournemouth Independent | 168+116 | 9.4% | -0.8% | -1.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 61+60 | 4.0% | -3.8% | -4.2% | -9.6% | -9.5% | | Green | 63+54 | 3.9% | -5.9% | -6.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Patria | 8 | 0.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes - average | 1,528 | | 31% | 33% | 67% | 73% |
Swing Labour to Conservative on average by-election votes ~2% since May and ~6% since 2011 Council now 51 Conservative, 1 UKIP, 1 Green, 1 Independent Fylde, Clifton - Conservative hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 576 | 59.8% | +14.0% | +17.4% | +9.4% | +11.2% | | UKIP | 128 | 13.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | 122 | 12.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 84 | 8.7% | -9.6% | -10.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 53 | 5.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Previous Independent | | | -35.8% | -38.1% | -49.5% | -51.4% | | Total votes | 963 | | 32% | 34% | 59% | 61% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 32 Conservative, 12 Independent, 2 Liberal Democrat, 2 Ratepayer, 2 Non Aligned, 1 Labour Harborough, Market Harborough Logan - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 402 | 45.2% | +9.0% | +11.0% | +4.2% | +3.5% | | Conservative | 303 | 34.0% | -1.3% | +0.6% | -6.7% | -4.3% | | Labour | 82 | 9.2% | -5.9% | -8.0% | -3.6% | -4.7% | | Green | 56 | 6.3% | -7.1% | -8.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP | 47 | 5.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | | | | | -5.5% | -6.1% | | Total votes | 890 | | 32% | 37% | 50% | 55% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~5% / 5½% since May and 4% / 5% since 2011 Council now 29 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat Huntingdonshire, Huntingdon East - Liberal Democrat gain from UKIP
| Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2011 | | Liberal Democrat | 844 | 45.0% | +17.0% | +13.8% | +8.1% | +11.0% | | Conservative | 596 | 31.8% | -3.3% | +5.9% | -3.3% | -17.2% | | UKIP | 293 | 15.6% | -7.8% | -16.9% | +0.6% | from nowhere | | Labour | 141 | 7.5% | -4.9% | -2.9% | -5.1% | -9.4% | | TUSC | | | -1.1% | | | | | Total votes | 1,874 | | 41% | 69% | 84% | 65% |
Swing if meaningful Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~10% since May Council now 35 Conservative plus 1 Independent Conservative, 5 Liberal democrat, 5 Independent, 4 UKIP, 2 Labour North East Derbyshire, Coal Aston - Conservative hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2014 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 606 | 66.6% | +15.1% | +15.2% | +20.3% | +17.1% | +17.9% | | Labour | 304 | 33.4% | -1.0% | -0.4% | -3.1% | -3.6% | -4.2% | | UKIP | | | -14.1% | -14.7% | -17.2% | | | | Liberal Democrat | | | | | | -13.4% | -13.7% | | Total votes | 910 | | 45% | 47% | 81% | 62% | 63% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~8% since May, ~12% since 2014 election and ~10% since 2011 Council now 34 Labour, 18 Conservative, 1 Independent North East Derbyshire, Holmewood & Heath - Labour hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Labour | 282 | 79.0% | +7.4% | +7.1% | +8.0% | +8.4% | | Conservative | 75 | 21.0% | -7.4% | -7.1% | -8.0% | -8.4% | | Total votes | 357 | | 27% | 29% | 42% | 42% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~7% since May and 8% since 2011 Council now 34 Labour, 18 Conservative, 1 Independent Spelthorne, Shepperton Town - Conservative hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 858 | 62.0% | +6.1% | +7.3% | +3.4% | +5.9% | | UKIP | 180 | 13.0% | -5.4% | -5.2% | -6.2% | -7.4% | | Liberal Democrat | 154 | 11.1% | -0.8% | -2.0% | -11.0% | -12.3% | | Labour | 123 | 8.9% | -4.8% | -5.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 68 | 4.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 1,383 | | 31% | 34% | 44% | 47% |
Swing UKIP to Conservative ~6% since both May and 2011 Council now 35 Conservative, 3 Liberal Democrat, 1 Labour East Hertfordshire, Hertford East - No Description wins but in reality Conservative hold | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 | since 2011 | 2007 result | | No Description / Conservative | 269 | 52.0% | +6.7% | -18.2% | unopposed | | Liberal Democrat | 101 | 19.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | | UKIP | 70 | 13.5% | -1.7% | from nowhere | | | Labour | 56 | 10.8% | -1.7% | -18.9% | | | Green | 21 | 4.1% | -1.8% | from nowhere | | | Independent | | | -21.1% | | | | Total votes | 517 | | 32% | 47% | |
Swing not meaningful Council now 50 Conservative Ryedale, Derwent - Liberal (not Democrat) gain from Conservative| Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011"top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal | 283 | 35.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 278 | 34.8% | -11.8% | -7.7% | -6.9% | -5.3% | | Independent | 124 | 15.5% | -13.0% | -15.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | No Description / Liberal Democrat | 81 | 10.2% | -14.7% | -16.6% | -8.9% | -9.5% | | Yorkshire First | 32 | 4.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Previous Independent | | | | | -23.8% | -24.4% | | Labour | | | | | -15.4% | -15.8% | | Total votes | 798 | | 35% | 37% | 46% | 48% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 19 Conservative, 5 Independent, 4 Liberal, 2 Liberal Democrat
Aylesbury, Grendon Underwood & Brill - result awaited | Party | 2015 B votes | 2015 B share | since 2015 | | Conservative | 326 | 43.5% | -11.1% | | Liberal Democrat | 275 | 36.7% | +25.8% | | UKIP | 148 | 19.8% | -2.1% | | Green | | | -12.6% | | Total votes | 749 | | 38% |
Swing if meaningful Conservative to Liberal Democrat 18.4% since May. Council now 43 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat, 4 UKIP, 2 Labour, 2 Independent
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 16, 2015 23:13:44 GMT
Seats last contested 2012 to 2014Newham, Boleyn - Labour hold | Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average | | Labour | 1,440 | 72.1% | +7.9% | +8.1% | +8.4% | +4.7% | | Liberal Democrat | 181 | 9.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 171 | 8.6% | -12.4% | -12.1% | -17.9% | -15.1% | | Green | 117 | 5.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere
| from nowhere | | UKIP | 78 | 3.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | 10 | 0.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | TUSC | | | -8.3% | -8.7% | | | | Christian | | | -6.5% | -6.7% | -7.5% | -6.8% | | Communities Welfare | | | | | -2.3% | -2.1% | | Total votes | 1,997 | | 48% | 51% | 39% | 42% |
Swing if meaningful Conservative to Labour 10% since 2014 ad ~ 13% / 10% since 2010 Council now 60 Labour Shropshire, Meole - Conservative hold | Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2013 | since 2009 | | Conservative | 490 | 43.1% | -11.8% | -28.2% | | Labour | 303 | 26.7% | -11.0% | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 223 | 19.6% | +12.3% | -9.0% | | UKIP | 64 | 5.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 56 | 4.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 1,136 | | 91% | 78% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~½% since 2013 otherwise not meaningful Council now 47 Conservative, 13 Liberal Democrat,9 Labour, 4 Independent, 1 Individual
South Lanarkshire, Blantyre - Labour hold based on first preference votes | Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | | Labour | 1,476 | 47.2% | -7.0% | +5.3% | | SNP | 1,236 | 39.6% | +8.9% | +20.1% | | Conservative | 140 | 4.5% | +0.6% | -0.6% | | Scottish Socialist | 122 | 3.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 92 | 2.9% | +2.2% | from nowhere | | UKIP | 59 | 1.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent Martin | | | -5.1% | | | Christian * | | | -4.6% | -11.6% | | Independent Wallace | | | -0.9% | -0.8% | | Independent Thomson ** | | | | -21.2% | | Total votes | 3,125 | | 68% | 48% |
* candidate stood as Independent in 2007 ** elected as SNP in 2012 Swing Labour to SNP ~8% since 2012 and if meaningful ~7½% since 2007 Council now 38 Labour, 20 SNP, 4 Conservative, 2 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Solidarity, Conwy, Gogarth - Conservative hold | Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | since 2008 "top" | since 2008 "average" | | Conservative | 318 | 42.5% | +15.7% | +15.8% | +7.7% | +4.9% | | Labour | 187 | 25.0% | +1.4% | -0.4% | +5.2% | +3.3% | | Plaid Cymru | 167 | 22.53% | +3.7% | +1.6% | +3.3% | +4.4% | | Liberal Democrat | 49 | 6.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -3.5% | -2.8% | | Independent | 28 | 3.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Previous Independents | | | -31.1% | -27.3% | -16.5% | -13.5% | | Total votes | 749 | | 63% | 71% | 57% | 63% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 19 Independent, 13 Conservative, 12 Plaid Cymru, 11 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat
Brent, Kensal Green - Labour hold | Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | | Labour | 931 | 53.4% | -1.0% | -1.1% | +15.7% | +14.8% | | Liberal Democrat | 417 | 23.9% | +8.7% | +8.7% | -6.0% | -7.5% | | Conservative | 255 | 14.6% | +2.8% | +3.4% | +1.4% | +2.8% | | Green | 102 | 5.9% | -12.7% | -13.1% | -5.5% | -3.6% | | UKIP | 38 | 2.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | | | | | -7.8% | -8.7% | | Total votes | 1,743 | | 52% | 53% | 30% | 34% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat ~5% since 2014 but Liberal Democrat to Labour ~11% since 2010 Council now 56 Labour, 6 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat
Worcestershire, Stourport-on-Severn - Conservative gain from Health Concern| Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2013 B | since 2013 "top" | since 2013 "average" | since 2009 "top" | since 2009 "average" | | Conservative | 763 | 28.7% | +6.9% | +9.2% | +8.0% | -0.9% | -0.6% | | Health Concern | 725 | 27.3% | -3.3% | +0.8% | +0.7% | -10.2% | -9.8% | | Labour | 581 | 21.9% | +4.3% | -0.8% | +0.2% | +10.5% | +10.4% | | UKIP | 547 | 20.6% | -5.3% | -6.9% | -6.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 42 | 1.6% | -0.6% | -2.3% | -2.6% | -3.5% | -3.5% | | BNP | | | -1.1% | | | | | | Liberal Democrat | | | -0.9% | | | -4.9% | -5.0% | | Independent | | | | | | -8.0% | -8.2% | | Liberal | | | | | | -3.7% | -3.8% | | Total votes | 2,658 | | 77% | 53% | 56% | 42% | 43% |
Swing Health Concern to Conservative ~5% since 2013 by-election, ~4% if meaningful since 2013 and ~5½% since 2009 Council now 33 Conservative, 11 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 2 UKIP, 2 Green, 2 Health Concern, 2 Independent, 1 Wythall Resident
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 19, 2015 18:24:52 GMT
Summary of Labour performance during December 2015There were 19 by-elections for 20 seats during December with Labour contesting 18 seats (90%). The party held 4 seats, Brent: Kensall Green, Newham: Boleyn, North East Derbyshire: Holmewood & Heath and South Lanarkshire: Blantyre, and made no gains or losses. It was runner up in Bournemouth: Kinson South where 2 seats were being contested, retaining second place in Conwy: Gogarth, North East Derbyshire: Coal Aston {straight fight) and Shropshire: Meole whilst coming second from nowhere in Malvern Hills: Teme Valley. | Authority | Ward / Division | Date | Vote | Share | Position | Share change (since) | | Aylesbury Vale | Grendon Underwood & Brill | 23 / 12 | no candidate | | | | | Bournemouth | Kinson South - 1 | 10 / 12 | 471 | 29.4% | 3 / 12 | +7.0% (May) | | Bournemouth | Kinson South - 2 | 10 / 12 | 371 | 25.9%
| 4 / 12 | +5.5% (May) | | Brent | Kensal Green | 17 / 12 | 931 | 53.4% | 1 / 5 | -1.1% (2014) | | Conwy | Gogarth | 16 / 12 | 187 | 25.0% | 2 / 5 | -0.4% (2012) | | East Herts | Hertford Heath | 17 / 12 | 56 | 10.8% | 4 / 5 | -1.7% (May) | | Fylde | Clifton | 10 / 12 | 84 | 8.7% | 4 / 5 | -10.8% (May) | | Guildford | Ash South & Tongham | 03 / 12 | 125 | 10.0% | 5 / 5 | -5.8% (May} | | Harborough | Market Harborough Logan | 10 / 12 | 82 | 9.2% | 3 / 5 | -8.0% (May) | | Huntingdonshire | Huntingdon East | 10 / 12 | 141 | 7.5% | 4 / 4 | -4.9% (May) | | Malvern Hills | Teme Valley | 03 / 12 | 96 | 22.9% | 2 / 3 | from nowhere | | Newham | Boleyn | 03 / 12 | 1,440 | 72.1% | 1 / 6 | +8.1% (2014) | | North East Derbyshire | Coal Aston | 10 / 12 | 304 | 33.4% | 2 / 2 | -0.4% (May) | | North East Derbyshire | Holmewood & Heath | 10 / 12 | 282 | 79.0% | 1 / 2
| +7.1% (May) | | Ryedale | Derwent | 17 / 12 | no candidate | | | | | Shropshire | Meole | 03 / 12 | 303 | 26.7% | 2 / 5 | -11.0% (2013) | | South Kesteven | Belvoir | 03 / 12 | 175 | 15.2% | 3 / 4 | -16.3% (May) | | South Lanarkshire | Blantyre | 10 / 12 | 1,476 | 47.2% | 1 / 6 | -7.0% (2012) | | Spelthorne | Shepperton Town | 15 / 12 | 123 | 8.9% | 4 / 5 | -5.0% (May) | | Worcestershire | Stourport-on-Severn | 17 / 12 | 581 | 21.9% | 3 / 5 | +0.2% (2013) |
Labour saw its share increase in Bournemouth: Kinson Green, although the Conservatives share increased by more as they retained both seats, Newham: Boleyn, North East Derbyshire: Holmewood & Heath in a straight fight with the Conservatives and was slightly up in Worcestershire: Stourport-on-Severn which the Conservatives gained from Health Concern - along with Malvern Hills from nowhere. It saw its share fall in the other 12 seats contested, - less than 2% in Brent: Kensall Green, Conwy: Gogarth, North East Derbyshire: Coal Aston and East Herts; Hertford Heath although the Conservative share increased in all 4 wards, sometimes substantially. - 2% to 5% in Huntingdonshire: Huntingdon East, Liberal Democrat gain from UKIP, and Spelthorne: Shepperton Town, - 5% to 10% in Guildford: Ash South & Tongham, Harborough: Market Harborough Logan and South Lanarkshire: Blantyre where SNP failed to take the seat and - over 10% in Fylde: Clifton, Shropshire: Meole and South Kesteven: Belvoir. This performance sets a benchmark for the by-elections in January to March ahead of the annual elections in May.
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 21, 2015 0:09:02 GMT
Summary of Green performance during December 2015There were 19 by-elections for 20 seats during December with the Greens contesting 9 seats (45%). The party polled between 1.6% (Worcestershire: Stourport-on-Severn) and 6.3% (Harborough: Market Harborough Logan) and was placed no higher than 4th. It did however contest 3 seats where it had previously no candidate whilst it had 2 candidates in Bournemouth: Kinson South whereas there was only 1 in May. | Authority | Ward / Division | Date | Vote | Share | Position | Share change (since) | | Aylesbury Vale | Grendon Underwood & Brill | 23 / 12 | no candidate | | | | | Bournemouth | Kinson South - 1 | 10 / 12 | 63 | 3.9% | 8 / 12 | -5.8% (May) | | Bournemouth | Kinson South - 2 | 10 / 12 | 54 | 3.8%
| 11 / 12 | from nowhere | | Brent | Kensal Green | 17 / 12 | 102 | 5.9% | 4 / 5 | -13.1% (2014) | | Conwy | Gogarth | 16 / 12 | no candidate |
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| | East Herts | Hertford Heath | 17 / 12 | 21 | 4.1% | 5 / 5 | -1.8% (May) | | Fylde | Clifton | 10 / 12 | no candidate |
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| | Guildford | Ash South & Tongham | 03 / 12 | no candidate |
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| | Harborough | Market Harborough Logan | 10 / 12 | 56 | 6.3% | 4 / 5 | -8.3% (May) | | Huntingdonshire | Huntingdon East | 10 / 12 | no candidate |
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| | Malvern Hills | Teme Valley | 03 / 12 | no candidate |
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| | Newham | Boleyn | 03 / 12 | 117 | 5.9% | 4 / 6 | from nowhere | | North East Derbyshire | Coal Aston | 10 / 12 | no candidate |
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| | North East Derbyshire | Holmewood & Heath | 10 / 12 | no candidate |
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| | Ryedale | Derwent | 17 / 12 | no candidate | | | | | Shropshire | Meole | 03 / 12 | 56 | 4.9% | 5 / 5 | from nowhere | | South Kesteven | Belvoir | 03 / 12 | no candidate |
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| | South Lanarkshire | Blantyre | 10 / 12 | no candidate |
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| | Spelthorne | Shepperton Town | 15 / 12 | 68 | 4.9% | 5 / 5 | from nowhere | | Worcestershire | Stourport-on-Severn | 17 / 12 | 42 | 1.6% | 5 / 5 | -2.6% (2013) |
The Greens saw their share fall in the 5 seats with comparable figures: - 1.8% in East Herts: Hertford Heath, 2.6% Worcestershire: Stourport-on-Severn, 5.8% Bournemouth: Kinson South, 8.3% Harborough: Market Harborough Logan and 13.% Brent: Kensal Green. This performance sets a benchmark for the by-elections in January to March ahead of the annual elections in May.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,607
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 21, 2015 11:36:19 GMT
Re your council membership summaries above, I think you will find Conwy does in fact have a Labour group  |
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 21, 2015 11:47:59 GMT
Re your council membership summaries above, I think you will find Conwy does in fact have a Labour group Thanks now corrected. I remember having the Labour Group listed and not really sure how it was missed off unless it was too much HPA (Hereford Pale Ale) again. |
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 21, 2015 17:25:33 GMT
Summary of UKIP performance during December 2015There were 19 by-elections for 20 seats during December with UKIP contesting 15 seats (75%) including only one candidate for the two seats in Bournemouth: Kinson South. UKIP lost Huntingdonshire: Huntingdon East to a Liberal Democrat, falling to third, whilst in Bournemouth and Worcestershire: Stourport-on- Severn, where it won one of two seats in May and 2013 respectively, it was behind both Conservative (who won all three seats) and Labour as well as Health Concern in Stourport. However it did contest 8 seats where it had no candidates in the previous election with share ranging from 1.9% (South Lanarkshire: Blantyre) to 13.8% (South Kesteven: Belvoir) and an arithmetic average of 7.3%. | Authority | Ward / Division | Date | Vote | Share | Position | Share change (since) | | Aylesbury Vale | Grendon Underwood & Brill | 23 / 12 | 148 | 19.8% | 3 / 3 | -2.1% (May) | | Bournemouth | Kinson South - 1 | 10 / 12 | 313 | 19.5% | 5 / 12 | -5.8% (May) | | Bournemouth | Kinson South - 2 | 10 / 12 | no candidate |
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| | Brent | Kensal Green | 17 / 12 | 38 | 2.2% | 5 / 5 | from nowhere | | Conwy | Gogarth | 16 / 12 | no candidate |
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| | East Herts | Hertford Heath | 17 / 12 | 70 | 13.5% | 3 / 5 | -1.7% (May) | | Fylde | Clifton | 10 / 12 | 128 | 13.3%
| 2 / 5
| from nowhere
| | Guildford | Ash South & Tongham | 03 / 12 | 153 | 12.2%
| 3 / 5
| from nowhere
| | Harborough | Market Harborough Logan | 10 / 12 | 47 | 5.3% | 5 / 5 | from nowhere | | Huntingdonshire | Huntingdon East | 10 / 12 | 293 | 15.6%
| 3 / 4
| -7.8% (May)
| | Malvern Hills | Teme Valley | 03 / 12 | 56 | 13.3%
| 3 / 3
| -14.4% (May)
| | Newham | Boleyn | 03 / 12 | 78 | 3.9% | 5 / 6 | from nowhere | | North East Derbyshire | Coal Aston | 10 / 12 | no candidate |
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| | North East Derbyshire | Holmewood & Heath | 10 / 12 | no candidate |
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| | Ryedale | Derwent | 17 / 12 | no candidate | | | | | Shropshire | Meole | 03 / 12 | 64 | 5.6% | 4 / 5 | from nowhere | | South Kesteven | Belvoir | 03 / 12 | 159 | 13.8%
| 4 / 4
| from nowhere
| | South Lanarkshire | Blantyre | 10 / 12 | 59 | 1.9%
| 6 / 6
| from nowhere
| | Spelthorne | Shepperton Town | 15 / 12 | 180 | 13.0% | 2 / 5 | -5.2% (May) | | Worcestershire | Stourport-on-Severn | 17 / 12 | 547 | 20.6% | 4 / 5 | -6.9% (2013) |
The UKIP share fell in all 6 by-elections where the party contested the seat in May, ranging from 1.7% in East Herts: Hertford Heath to 14.4% in Malvern Hills: Temeside, where there was a 3-way by-election contest following a straight fight in May. The arithmetic average fall in share within these seats was 6.2% (4.5% excluding Malvern Hill) whilst Worcestershire: Stourport-on-Severn saw a 6.9% fall in share since 2013. This performance sets a benchmark for the by-elections in January to March ahead of the annual elections in May.
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 22, 2015 0:00:13 GMT
Summary of Liberal Democrat performance during December 2015There were 19 by-elections for 20 seats during December with Liberal Democrats contesting 15 seats (75%) taking the No Description candidate in Ryedale: Derwent as a Liberal Democrat. Liberal Democrats retained Harborough: Market Harborough Logan and gained Huntingdonshire: Huntingdon East from UKIP. It had 2 candidates in Bournemouth: Kinson South compared to 1 in May and contested 4 where it had no candidate in May polling an arithmetic average of 10.1%. | Authority | Ward / Division | Date | Vote | Share | Position | Share change (since) | | Aylesbury Vale | Grendon Underwood & Brill | 23 / 12 | 275 | 36.7% | 2 / 3 | +25.8% (May) | | Bournemouth | Kinson South - 1 | 10 / 12 | 61 | 3.8% | 9 / 12 | -4.0% (May) | | Bournemouth | Kinson South - 2 | 10 / 12 | 60 | 4.2%
| 10 / 12
| from nowhere
| | Brent | Kensal Green | 17 / 12 | 417 | 23.9% | 2 / 5 | +8.7% (2014) | | Conwy | Gogarth | 16 / 12 | 49 | 6.5%
| 4 / 5
| from nowhere
| | East Herts | Hertford Heath | 17 / 12 | 101 | 19.5% | 2 / 5 | from nowhere | | Fylde | Clifton | 10 / 12 | 53 | 5.5%
| 5 / 5
| from nowhere
| | Guildford | Ash South & Tongham | 03 / 12 | 286 | 22.9%
| 2 / 5
| +6.3% (May)
| | Harborough | Market Harborough Logan | 10 / 12 | 402 | 45.2% | 1 / 5 | +11.0% (May) | | Huntingdonshire | Huntingdon East | 10 / 12 | 844 | 45.0%
| 1 / 4
| +17.0% (May)
| | Malvern Hills | Teme Valley | 03 / 12 | no candidate |
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| | Newham | Boleyn | 03 / 12 | 181 | 9.1% | 2 / 6 | from nowhere | | North East Derbyshire | Coal Aston | 10 / 12 | no candidate |
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| | North East Derbyshire | Holmewood & Heath | 10 / 12 | no candidate |
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| | Ryedale | Derwent | 17 / 12 | 81 | 10.2% | 4 / 5 | -16.6% (May) | | Shropshire | Meole | 03 / 12 | 223 | 19.5% | 3 / 5 | +12.3% (2013) | | South Kesteven | Belvoir | 03 / 12 | no candidate |
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| | South Lanarkshire | Blantyre | 10 / 12 | 92 | 2.9%
| 5 / 6
| +2.2% (2012)
| | Spelthorne | Shepperton Town | 15 / 12 | 154 | 11.1% | 3 / 5 | -2.0% (May) | | Worcestershire | Stourport-on-Severn | 17 / 12 | no candidate |
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Liberal Democrats contested 7 by-elections were they had candidates seeing a share increase in 4, ranging from 6.3% in Guildford: Ash South & Tongham to 25.8 % in Aylesbury Vale: Grendon Underwood & Brill, whilst experiencing a fall in 3, from 2% in Spelthorne: Shepperton Town to 16.6% in Ryedale: Derwent. Comparable figure from 3 elections in earlier years also saw an increase in the party's share. This performance sets a benchmark for the by-elections in January to March ahead of the annual elections in May.
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 23, 2015 0:47:32 GMT
Summary of Conservative performance during December 2015There were 19 by-elections for 20 seats during December with Conservatives contesting all 20 seats (100%) taking the No Description candidate in East Herts: Hertford Heath as a Conservative. The party retained 12 of the 13 seats defended, losing Ryedale: Derwent to a Liberal (not Democrat) by 5 votes, whilst gaining Worcestershire: Stourport-on-Severn from Health Concern. | Authority | Ward / Division | Date | Vote | Share | Position | Share change (since) | | Aylesbury Vale | Grendon Underwood & Brill | 23 / 12 | 326 | 43.5% | 1 / 3 | -11.1% (May) | | Bournemouth | Kinson South - 1 | 10 / 12 | 520 | 32.4% | 1 / 12 | +7.8% (May) | | Bournemouth | Kinson South - 2 | 10 / 12 | 509 | 35.6%
| 2 / 12
| +11.0% (May)
| | Brent | Kensal Green | 17 / 12 | 255 | 14.6% | 3 / 5 | +3.4% (2014) | | Conwy | Gogarth | 16 / 12 | 318 | 42.5%
| 1 / 5
| +15.8% (2012)
| | East Herts | Hertford Heath | 17 / 12 | 269 | 52.0% | 1 / 5 | +6.7% (May) | | Fylde | Clifton | 10 / 12 | 576 | 59.8%
| 1 / 5
| +17.4% (May)
| | Guildford | Ash South & Tongham | 03 / 12 | 540 | 43.2%
| 1 / 5
| -3.3% (May)
| | Harborough | Market Harborough Logan | 10 / 12 | 303 | 34.0% | 2 / 5 | +0.6% (May) | | Huntingdonshire | Huntingdon East | 10 / 12 | 596 | 31.8%
| 2 / 4
| -3.3% (May)
| | Malvern Hills | Teme Valley | 03 / 12 | 268 | 63.8%
| 1 / 3
| -8.4% (May)
| | Newham | Boleyn | 03 / 12 | 171 | 8.6% | 3 / 6 | -12.1% (2014) | | North East Derbyshire | Coal Aston | 10 / 12 | 606 | 66.6%
| 1 / 2
| +15.2% (May)
| | North East Derbyshire | Holmewood & Heath | 10 / 12 | 75 | 21.0%
| 2 / 2
| -7.1% (May)
| | Ryedale | Derwent | 17 / 12 | 278 | 34.8% | 2 / 5 | -7.7% (May) | | Shropshire | Meole | 03 / 12 | 490 | 43.1% | 1 / 5 | -11.8% (2013) | | South Kesteven | Belvoir | 03 / 12 | 603 | 52.5%
| 1 / 4
| -16.0% (May)
| | South Lanarkshire | Blantyre | 10 / 12 | 140 | 4.5%
| 3 / 6
| +0.6% (2012)
| | Spelthorne | Shepperton Town | 15 / 12 | 858 | 62.0% | 1 / 5 | +7.3% (May) | | Worcestershire | Stourport-on-Severn | 17 / 12 | 763 | 28.7%
| 1 / 5
| +8.0% (2013)
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Of the 14 by-elections for seats previously contested in May, the Conservative share increased in 7, arithmetic average 9.4%, and fell in 7, arithmetic average 8.1%. For earlier years share increased in 4 contests and fell in 2. This performance sets a benchmark for the by-elections in January to March ahead of the annual elections in May.
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 23, 2015 22:43:28 GMT
There were 19 by-elections for 20 seats during December with 3 (15%) changing hands. The results, based on the No Description in East Herts, Hertford Heath being a Conservative whilst the one in Ryedale, Derwent a Liberal Democrat, can be summarised by: | Party | Candidates | Defended | Retained | Gained | Lost | Won | retention rate | | Conservative | 20 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 92% | | Labour | 18 | 4 | 4 | | | 4 | 100% | | Liberal Democrat | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | 2 | 100% | | UKIP | 15 | 1 | | | 1 | | 0% | | Green | 9 | | | | | | | | SNP | 1 | | | | | | | | Plaid Cymru | 1 | | | | | | | | Independent | 5 | | | | | | | | Bournemouth Independent | 2 | | | | | | | | Guildford Greenbelt Group | 1 | | | | | | | | Health Concern | 1 | 1 | | | 1 | | 0% | | Liberal | 1 | | | 1 |
| 1 | | | Patria | 1 | | | | | | | | Socialist | 1 | | | | | | | | Yorkshire First | 1 | | | | | | | | Total | 92 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 85% |
Conservatives gained Worcestershire: Stourport-on-Severn from Health Concern on a swing of 5.1% since a 2013 by-election, ~4% since May 2013 and ~5½% since 2009 - a 2 member Division returning 1 Health Concern / 1 Conservative in 2005, 2 Health Concern in 2009 and 1 UKIP / 1 Health Concern in 2013 - the UKIP Councillor resigned shortly after being elected and was replaced by the former Health Concern Councillor who had lost his seat a few weeks earlier. but lost Ryedale: Derwent to a Liberal (not Democrat) who had not contested the seat before - a 2 member ward that had returned 2 Conservatives since at least 2003 apart from 2007 when a sole Conservative and a Liberal Democrat were elected. A Liberal Democrat gained Huntingdonshire: Huntingdon East from UKIP who fell into third place behind the Conservatives. - a 3 member ward that elects annually: Conservatives won in 2007, 2011 and 2015, Liberal Democrats in 2008, 2010 and 2012 with UKIP winning in 2014. |
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 27, 2015 0:35:59 GMT
There were 138 by-elections for 141 seats in the period since the General Election upto December with 35 (25%) changing hands. The results which exclude deferred elections can be summarised by: | Party | Candidates | Defended | Retained | Gained | Lost | Won | retention rate | | Conservative | 132 | 44 | 36 | 14 | 8 | 50 | 82% | | Labour | 122 | 38 | 33 | 6 | 5 | 39 | 87% | | Liberal Democrat | 97 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 54% | | UKIP * | 98 | 7 | 2 | | 5 | 2 | 29% | | Green | 83 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 33% | | SNP | 25 | 21 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 95% | | Plaid Cymru | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 | | 4 | 100% | | Independent ** | 39 | 4 | 2 | | 2 | 2 | 50% | | Local Groups *** | 19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 33% | | No Description **** | 6 | 1 | | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0% | | Kidderminster Health Concern | 2 | 1 | | | 1 | | 0% | | Liberal | 1 | | | 1 |
| 1 | | | Socialist / Unity Left | 4 | | | | | | | | TUSC / TUSAC | 8 | | | | | | | | Other ***** | 12 | | | | | | | | Total | 661 | 141 | 106 | 35 | 35 | 141 | 75% |
* one candidate was disowned by party but remained UKIP on the ballot paper ** 39 candidates stood in 36 by-elections *** Ashford Ind, Bournemouth Ind (2), Guildford Greenbelt, Epsom & Ewell Residents, Hykeham Ind, Lincolnshire Ind, Llais Gwynedd (3), Mebyon Kernow, North East, Orkney Manifesto Richmondshire Ind, Selston Ind (2 seats retained), Yorkshire First (3) - Lincolnshire Ind did not defend one seat whilst Tower Hamlets First is no longer is no longer registered and defended seat as an Independent **** No Description in East Herts: Hertford Heath classed as Conservative and in Ryedale: Derwent classed as Liberal Democrat ***** All People, Baker Street: No 2 Way, Christian (3), Libertarian (3), Patria, People First, Pirate, Something New Conservatives contested 94% of the seats since the General Election, Labour 87%, Liberal Democrats 69%, UKIP 70% whilst Greens contested 59%. SNP contested 86% of the Scottish seats with Plaid Cymru 76% of those in Wales. Conservatives gained 5 seats from Liberal Democrats, 4 from UKIP, 3 from Labour and 1 each from Kidderminster Health Concern and Lincolnshire Independents - Aberdeenshire: Huntley, Strathbogie & Howe of Alford, Brentwood: Shenstone, Surrey: Epsom West, Wiltshire: Salisbury St Edmunds & Milford and Woking: Goldstone West from Liberal Democrats - Cambridgeshire: Wisbech South, Cornwall: Pendarves, Norfolk: Gorleston St Andrews together with Norfolk: Watton from UKIP - Ashfield: Aylestone Green, Bury: Tottington along with Exeter: Pinhoe from Labour - Worcestershire: Stourport-on-Severn from Kidderminster Health Concern and North Kesteven: North Hykeham Mill from Lincolnshire Independent who did not contest the seat but lost 4 seats to Liberal Democrats, 2 to Labour and 1 each to a Liberal and SNP - Powys; Glasbury, Richmond-upon-Thames: Hampton Wick, Rother: Battle Town and Wealden: Hellingly to Liberal Democrats - Cherwell: Banbury: Grimbury & Castle and Rochford: Rochford to Labour - Aberdeen: Midstocket / Rosemount to SNP and Ryedale: Derwent to Liberal (not Liberal Democrat) Labour gained Bridgend: Ogmore Vale from an Independent, Cambridgeshire: Romsey from Liberal Democrat, Edinburgh: Leith Walk from Green and Tower Hamlets: Stepney Green from Tower Hamlets First who did not contest the seat along with Cherwell: Banbury Grimbury & Castle and Rochford: Rochford from Conservatives -but lost Dorset: Rockwell to Greens and Wrexham: Llay to a Liberal Democrat as well as Ashford: Aylestone Green, Bury: Tottington and Exeter: Pinhoe to Conservatives Liberal Democrats gained Highland: Aird & Loch Ness from SNP, Huntingdonshire: Huntingdon East from UKIP as well as the 4 seats from Conservatives and Wrexham: Llay from Labour - whilst losing 5 seats to Conservatives and Cambridgeshire: Romsey to Labour UKIP lost Cambridgeshire: Wisbech South, Cornwall: Pendarves, Norfolk: Gorleston St Andrews and Norfolk: Watton to Conservatives and also Huntingdonshire: Huntingdon East to Liberal Democrat Other seats to change hands were: SNP gained Glasgow Langside from Green adding to Aberdeen: Midstocket / Rosemount gained from Conservative Plaid Cymru gained Gwynedd: Llanaelhaearn from Llais Gwynedd No Description gained Gwynedd: Pwlheli South from Llais Gwynedd and Western Isles: West Side and Ness from Independent Orkney Manifesto gained Orkney: West Mainside from No Description who had founded and was sitting as Orkney Manifesto |
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 27, 2015 10:24:44 GMT
For the sake of completeness, there were 251 local council by-elections during 2015, 25 in the January to April period, 85 on 7th May and 141 since the General Election. A total of 59 seats changed hands, 8 before the General Election, 16 on 7th May and 35 since, or 23½% of those contested. The results can be summarised by:
Party | Defended | Retained | Gained | Lost | Won | retention rate | Conservative | 87 | 77 | 26 | 10 | 103 | 88% | Labour | 82 | 69 | 10 | 13 | 79 | 84% | Liberal Democrat | 18 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 56% | SNP | 25 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 29 | 96% | Plaid Cymru | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 75% | UKIP | 16 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 19% | Green | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 25% | Others | 15 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 33% | Total | 251 | 192 | 59 | 59 | 251 | 76% |
This analysis excludes elections deferred from 7th May. There are a couple of small differences from the figures published by Britain Elects but these do not affect the overall conclusions. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2015 17:50:06 GMT
What is startling about those figures is the failure of UKIP,Greens and other minor parties to retain seats whether this is down to lack of organization in some areas our picking the wrong candidates or paper candidates winning that didn't expect to be elected the main beneficaries appear to be the conservatives and to a lesser extent the SNP.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2015 22:08:42 GMT
What is startling about those figures is the failure of UKIP,Greens and other minor parties to retain seats whether this is down to lack of organization in some areas our picking the wrong candidates or paper candidates winning that didn't expect to be elected the main beneficaries appear to be the conservatives and to a lesser extent the SNP. It's largely because this is a general election year; the momentum that UKIP and to some extent the Greens enjoyed in the middle of the last Parliament has subsided. Give it another couple of years and it might build back up again. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2015 23:53:04 GMT
This is true however UKIP in particular seem to have a ceiling on their vote share plus the infighting can't be helping them.The fact that PR is being used for the Welsh and Scottish Elections next year will likely see UKIP gain AM'S in Wales and the Greens should certainly increase their MSP'S also they will both receive more media coverage as a result whether they can capitalise on this may depend on how these Elected representatives perform in a day to day capacity.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 5, 2016 11:33:05 GMT
What is startling about those figures is the failure of UKIP,Greens and other minor parties to retain seats whether this is down to lack of organization in some areas our picking the wrong candidates or paper candidates winning that didn't expect to be elected the main beneficaries appear to be the conservatives and to a lesser extent the SNP. From a Green point of view, not ignoring our habitual crapness at by-elections, it should be noted that 2 of our losses were in Scotland where the sitting councillors were elected in 4 member STV elections, but in neither case did the party top the ward. In both cases we increased our vote but not enough to keep the seat against parties who already had a larger vote in the wards. The other loss was on GE day in Watford where the local party has largely disintegrated over the past few years. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2016 0:09:51 GMT
Of course 2015 was a General Election year so the minor parties were always likely to be squeezed i would expect the greens to make minor gains in May and possibly gain the odd Council-By-election over the year.Scotland is a special case at least in the short term the SNP will probably hold their majority the opportunity for the Greens is of course the list seats which they should increase probably at Lab/Lib Dem expense given that the Lib/Dems only elected 5 MSP'S in 2011 it is not out of the question the Greens could eclipse them in terms of seats this time.I probably won't vote for the Greens in May however if i do it will be a personal vote for Partick Harvie he comes across very well in the media and stood firm against Nicola in the Leaders debate last year.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Jan 6, 2016 0:10:13 GMT
What is startling about those figures is the failure of UKIP,Greens and other minor parties to retain seats whether this is down to lack of organization in some areas our picking the wrong candidates or paper candidates winning that didn't expect to be elected the main beneficaries appear to be the conservatives and to a lesser extent the SNP. From a Green point of view, not ignoring our habitual crapness at by-elections, it should be noted that 2 of our losses were in Scotland where the sitting councillors were elected in 4 member STV elections, but in neither case did the party top the ward. In both cases we increased our vote but not enough to keep the seat against parties who already had a larger vote in the wards. Yes but it was totally self-inflicted by the Scottish Greens. |
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 6, 2016 9:01:24 GMT
From a Green point of view, not ignoring our habitual crapness at by-elections, it should be noted that 2 of our losses were in Scotland where the sitting councillors were elected in 4 member STV elections, but in neither case did the party top the ward. In both cases we increased our vote but not enough to keep the seat against parties who already had a larger vote in the wards. Yes but it was totally self-inflicted by the Scottish Greens. In the Edinburgh case, yes. It was a self-inflicted wound largely caused by colleagues in other parts of the country. Glasgow was just a case of health issues which is something that affects all parties at various points and is just bad luck. |
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