Prediction Competition for December 2015

[middleenglander]

It looks like 19 by-elections for 20 seats during December:

* 5 on 3rd December
* 7 for 8 seats on 10th December
* 1 on Tuesday 15th December
* 1 on Wednesday 16th December
* 4 on 17th December
* 1 on Wednesday 23rd December

There are 17 by-elections for 18 seats in England
* 12 in District Councils where all be one of the former Councillors were elected in May with the eception elected in 2014
* 1 for 2 seats in a Unitary Authority when the vacancies follow an Election Petition after the May elections
* 2 in London Boroughs elected in 2014
* 1 in a County Council last contested in 2013
* 1 in a Unitary last contested in 2013
* 1 in a Scottish Council and 1 in a Welsh Council last contested in 2012

Conservatives are defending 13 seats, 3 following the death of the previous Councillor, 8 after a resignation and 2 from the Election Petition
- they have no official candidate in one of the seats they are defending
Labour is defending 4 seats following deaths
Liberal Democrats 1 seat after a death
UKIP 1 seat after a resignation
Health Concern 1 seat after a death

Conservatives have 19 candidates, Labour 18, UKIP 15, Liberal Democrats 14, Green 9, SNP 1 and Plaid Cymru 1
there are 5 Independents, 2 Bournemouth Independents, 1 Guildford Greenbelt, 1 Yorkshire First along with 1 each Health Concern, Liberal Libertarian, Patria, Socialist and 2 No Description - a total of 92 candidates for 20 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.

For the double election in Bournemouth the prediction should be based on the average for those parties with 2 candidates.

[Robert Waller]

Guildford BC, Ash South & Tongham: Con 46, Lab 10, LD 14, UKIP 9, Guildford Greenbelt Group 21
Malvern Hills DC, Teme Valley: Con 70, Lab 13, UKIP 17
Newham LB, Boleyn: Con 16, Lab 70, LD 4, UKIP 3, Green 4, Ind 3
Shropshire UA, Meole: Con 45, Lab 28, LD 12, UKIP 10, Green 5
South Kesteven DC, Belvoir: Con 47, Lab 15, UKIP 12, Ind 26

[Davıd Boothroyd]

GUILDFORD Ash South and Tongham: C 50, GGG 22, L Dem 14, Lab 7, UKIP 7
MALVERN HILLS Teme Valley: C 68, UKIP 23, Lab 9
NEWHAM Boleyn: Lab 68, C 18, UKIP 5, Ind 4, L Dem 3, GP 2
SHROPSHIRE Meole: C 55, Lab 25, L Dem 10, UKIP 8, GP 2
SOUTH KESTEVEN Belvoir: C 56, Ind 21, Lab 13, UKIP 10

[maxque]

GUILDFORD Ash South and Tongham: Con 48, GGG 18, LD 15, UKIP 11, Lab 8
MALVERN HILLS Teme Valley: Con 65.6, UKIP 19, Lab 15.4
NEWHAM Boleyn: Lab 64, Con 21, LD 6, UKIP 5, Grn 3, Ind 1
SHROPSHIRE Meole: Con 52, Lab 35, LD 6, UKIP 4, Grn 3
SOUTH KESTEVEN Belvoir: Con 63, UKIP 20, Lab 15, Ind 2

[greenhert]

My local by-election predictions for this week are as follows:

Guildford BC, Ash South & Tongham: Conservative 49, Guildford Greenbelt Group 20, Liberal Democrats 15, UKIP 9, Labour 7.
Malvern Hills DC, Teme Valley: Conservative 66, UKIP 20, Labour 14.
Newham LBC, Boleyn: Lab 66, Con 20, Lib Dem 5, Green 4, UKIP 4, Independent 1.
Shropshire UA, Meole: Con 50, Lab 36, Lib Dem 7, UKIP 4, Green 3.
South Kesteven DC, Belvoir: Con 61, UKIP 19, Lab 16, Independent 4.

[Arthur Figgis]

Guildford: C 46.2, GGG 19.8, LD 17.6, UKIP 8.8, L 7.6.
Malvern Hills: C 67.6, UKIP 23.3, L 9.1.
Newham: L 66.8, C 18.5, G 4.2, Ind 3.8, LD 3.6, UKIP 3.1.
Salop: C 47.4, L 32.7, LD 8.5, UKIP 7.6, G 3.8.
South Kesteven: C 54.4, L 24.1, UKIP 17.1, I 4.4.

[hempie]

Guildford, Ash South & Tongham: C 44, LD 22, Guildford Greenbelt Group 20, UKIP 9, Lab 5
Malvern Hills, Teme Valley: Conservative 64, UKIP 22, Labour 14
Newham, Boleyn: Lab 68, Con 15, LD 5, Green 5, UKIP 4, Ind 3
Shropshire, Meole: Con 47, Lab 33, LD 9, UKIP 7, Green 4
South Kesteven, Belvoir: Con 45, UKIP 22, Ind 19, Lab 14

[marksenior]

Guildford Con 51 GGG 18 LD 15 UKIP 12 Lab 4
M Hills Con 78 UKIP 18 Lab 4
Newham Lab 66 Con 15 LD 6 Green 5 UKIP 4 Ind 4
Shropshire Con 44 Lab 29 LD 14 UKIP 8 Ind 5
S Kesteven Con 54 Ind 16 UKIP 15 Lab 15

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 2, 2015 20:59:41 GMT petewhitehead said:

Newham LB - Boleyn

Lab  71.6%
Con 15.8%
Grn   6.4%
UKIP 2.7%
Ind    2.1%
LD     1.4%


Shropshire UA - Meole

Con  50.9%
Lab  20.7%
LD    15.6%
UKIP  8.2%
Grn    4.6%


Guildford BC - Ash South & Tongham

Con  37.3%
GGG 26.9%
LD     14.9%
UKIP 10.9%
Lab   10.0%


Malvern Hills DC - Teme Valley

Con  60.9%
UKIP 21.3%
Lab   17.8%



South Kesteven DC - Belvoir

Con   50.3%
UKIP 19.4%
Ind    15.6%
Lab   14.7%

[Tony Otim]

Dec 1, 2015 21:08:13 GMT tonyotim said:

Guildford:
Con 49.2
LD 15.7
GGG 13.5
UKIP 11.3
Lab 10.3


Malvern Hills:
Con 69.8
UKIP 21.5
Lab 8.7


Newham:
Lab 60.7
Con 22.4
Ind 5.2
LD 5.1
Grn 3.5
UKIP 3.1


Shropshire:
Con 48.7
Lab 24.4
UKIP 12.5
LD 10.2
Grn 4.2


South Kesteven
Con 52.5
UKIP 22.1
Ind 15.2
Lab 10.2

[middleenglander]

9 entries this week, with Lennon's ship still stuck on the ocean floor. Mark Senior gets 5 x 5 additional faults for being 10 minutes late along with 5 additional faults for having a non-existent Independent in Salop but no Green.

Guildford: 100% Conservative hold with all but hempie and Tony Otim having Guildford Greenbelt second whereas they have the Liberal Democrat as runner up
Malvern: 100% Conservative hold with majority over runner up UKIP ranging from 39.6% (Pete Whitehead) to 60% (Mark Senior)
Newham: 100% Labour hold with majority over second placed Conservative ranging from 38.3% (Tony Otim)to 55.8% (Pete Whitehead)
Shropshire: 100% Conservative hold with majority over second placed Labour ranging from 14% (Greenhert)to 30.2% (Pete Whitehead)
South Kesteven: 100% Conservative hold with only hempie and Robert Waller having the Conservative majority below 30% and share below 50%

[middleenglander]

Looks like Robert Waller in the lead narrowly in front of hempie with Pete Whitehead close behind. There us then 26 fault gap with less than 15 faults between the remaining 6. Full result in the morning.

[middleenglander]

94.6 Guildford, Ash South & Tongham
Tony Otim 16.3 faults, hempie 18.3, Arthur Figgis & Maxque 22,3, Robert Waller 24.3, Greenhert 28.3, Pete Whitehead 30.6, Mark Senior 28.3+5, David Boothroyd 34.3

Malvern Hills, Teme Valley
Maxque 14.9 faults, Pete Whitehead 15.9, Greenhert & hempie 17.7, Robert Waller 19.7, Arthur Figgis 27.5, David Boothroyd 27.7, Tony Otim 28.3, Mark Senior 37.7+5

Newham, Boleyn
hempie 18.1 faults, Pete Whitehead 18.8, Robert Waller 19.9, Greenhert 24.1, Mark Senior 20.1+5, Arthur Figgis 26.5, David Boothroyd & Maxque 28.1, Tony Otim 37.1

Shropshire, Meole
Robert Waller 15.3 faults, Pete Whitehead 20.7, hempie 23.1, Arthur Figgis 24.5, Tony Otim 24.9, Mark Senior 16.1+5+5, David Boothroyd 28.5, Greenhert 32.4, Maxque 34.4

South Kesteven, Belvoir
Mark Senior 5.4+5 faults, Pete Whitehead 11.1, David Boothroyd 12.1, Robert Waller 15.1, Tony Otim 16.6, hempie 17.4, Arthur Figgis 28.1, Greenhert 28.9, Maxque 33.4

and for the week:

94.3 Robert Waller
94.6 hempie
97.1 Pete Whitehead

123.1 Tony Otim
128.9 Arthur Figgis
130.7 David Boothroyd

131.4 Greenhert
133.0 Maxque
137.6 Mark Senior

Objections please by 9.00am Sunday.

There are 7 by-elections next week for 8 seats including the re-run of 2 seats in Bournemouth. The prediction here should be the average share for each party where there are 2 candidates along with the elected councillors, ie 2 Conservative, 1 UKIP & 1 Labour etc. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Robert for the week.

[Robert Waller]

Bournemouth UA, Kinson South: Con 36, Lab 23, LD 9, Green 4, Bournemouth Ind 9, UKIP 18, Patria 1
Fylde BC, Clifton: Con 45, Lab 9, LD 7, UKIP 10, Ind 29
Harborough DC, Market Harborough Logan: Con 35, Lab 10, LD 42, UKIP 8, Green 5
Huntingdonshire DC, Huntingdon East: Con 36, Lab 12, LD 35, UKIP 17
North East Derbyshire DC, Coal Aston: Con 58, Lab 42
North East Derbyshire DC, Holmewood & Heath: Con 28, Lab 72
South Lanarkshire, Blantyre: Con 7, Lab 34, LD 3, SNP 50, UKIP 3, Socialist 3

[marksenior]

Bournemouth Con 41 Lab 20 UKIP 17 LD 10 Bourn Ind 6 Green 5 Patria 1
Fylde Con 37 Ind 33 UKIP 16 LD 8 Lab 6
Harborough LD 40 Con 38 Lab 12 UKIP 7 Green 3
Huntingdon LD 36 Con 34 UKIP 20 Lab 10
NE Derbys C A Con 55 Lab 45
NE Derbys HH Lab 78 Con 22
S Lanarks SNP 48 Lab 36 Con 10 UKIP 2 LD 2 Soc 2

[greenhert]

My predictions for this week's local by-elections:

Bournemouth UA, Kinson South: Con 42, Lab 22, UKIP 13, Lib Dem 10, Green 7, Bournemouth Independent 5, Patria 1.
Fylde DC, Clifton: Con 39, Independent (Noreen Griffiths) 32, UKIP 15, Lib Dem 7, Lab 7.
Harborough DC, Market Harborough Logan: Lib Dem 42, Con 39, Lab 11, UKIP 5, Green 3.
Huntingdon DC, Huntingdon East: Lib Dem 35, Con 34, UKIP 23, Lab 8.
North East Derbyshire DC, Coal Aston: Con 56, Lab 44.
North East Derbyshire DC, Holmewood and Heath: Lab 74, Con 26.
South Lanarkshire UA, Blantyre: (first preference votes): SNP 45, Lab 38, Con 9, Scottish Socialist 3, UKIP 3, Lib Dem 2.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BOURNEMOUTH Kinson South: C 37, Lab 30, UKIP 15, BIA 9, L Dem 6, GP 2, Patria 1
FYLDE Clifton: C 51, Lab 18, Ind 15, L Dem 10, UKIP 6
HARBOROUGH Market Harborough Logan: L Dem 43, C 40, Lab 8, UKIP 5, GP 4
HUNTINGDON Huntingdon East: C 37, L Dem 35, UKIP 18, Lab 10
NORTH EAST DERBYSHIRE Coal Aston: C 60, Lab 40
NORTH EAST DERBYSHIRE Holmewood and Heath: Lab 72, C 28
SOUTH LANARKSHIRE Blantyre: SNP 48, Lab 40, C 6, UKIP 3, SSP 2, L Dem 1.

[maxque]

BOURNEMOUTH Kinson South: Con 30, Lab 25, UKIP 20, BIA 12, Grn 9, LD 3, Patria 1
FYLDE Clifton: Con 47, Ind 28, Lab 12, UKIP 9, LD 4
HARBOROUGH Market Harborough Logan: LD 36, Con 35, Lab 16, UKIP 9, Grn 4
HUNTINGDON Huntingdon East: LD 37, Con 36, UKIP 19, Lab 8
NORTH EAST DERBYSHIRE Coal Aston: Con 58, Lab 42
NORTH EAST DERBYSHIRE Holmewood and Heath: Lab 72, C 28
SOUTH LANARKSHIRE Blantyre: SNP 47, Lab 38, Con 8, UKIP 3, SSP 2, LD 2

[Arthur Figgis]

Bournemouth: C 31.2, L 26.8, UKIP 18.5, BIA 10.8, LD 8.5, G 3.1, Patria 1.1.
Fylde: C 44.2, L 21.5, I 16.8, UKIP 11.7, LD 5.8.
Harborough: LD 41.4, C 38.5, UKIP 8.3, L 6.9, G 4.9.
Huntingdon: C 39.5, LD 35.0, UKIP 14.0, L 11.5.
NE Derbys (Coal Aston): C 63.2, L 36.8
NE Derbys (H & H): L 68.8, C 31.2.
South Buckfastshire: SNP 51.2, L 30.7, C 9.7, SSP 3.3, UKIP 2.8, LD 2.3.