maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 27, 2015 1:59:21 GMT
Salisbury St Edmond and Milford
Con 425 (36.0%; +13.0)
LD 262 (22.2%; -20.8)
Lab 232 (19.7%; +5.2)
Grn 215 (18.2%; +10.7)
Ind 45 (3.8%; +3.8)
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 27, 2015 2:06:40 GMT
Selston (Nottinghamshire)
Selston Ind 2054 (59.2%; -12.6)
Ind 794 (22.9%; +22.9)
Lab 355 (10.2%; -13.3)
UKIP 161 (4.6%; +4.6)
Con 103 (3.0%; +3.0)
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 27, 2015 2:08:32 GMT
It's impressive than we got all 9 results on election night. Usually, we don't get all results so early, despite fewer by-elections.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 27, 2015 2:34:24 GMT
Scotland:
Dunfermline:
SNP 43.5% (+11.9)
Lab 29.6% (-18.6)
Con 12.5% (+5.9)
LD 9.5% (-4.1)
Grn 2.6% (+2.6)
UKIP 2.4% (+2.4)
Rosyth:
SNP 45.2% (+9.4)
Lab 34.5% (-13.2)
Con 9.1% (+3.3)
LD 3.6% (-3.5)
UKIP 3.3% (+0.7)
Ind 2.5% (+2.5)
Grn 1.9% (+1.9)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 27, 2015 8:07:38 GMT
Much as last week, no obvious patterns emerging. Labour blowing hot and cold, UKIP's predicted demise not manifesting, LDs blowing hot and cold and the Conservatives reasonably steady. But nothing that makes you think any specific trends are emerging.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 27, 2015 9:18:37 GMT
Actually one pattern which has emerged through all the chaos is shown in the post directly above which is a fairly consistent if modest improvement in the Conservative share in Scotland
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Post by linders on Nov 27, 2015 9:19:42 GMT
Pwllheli South Underwood, Hefin Not noted 269 45.44% Williams, Alan Plaid Cymru 168 28.38% Parry, Michael Independent 106 17.91% Pollitt, Peta Merrian The Voice of Gwynedd 49 8.28% A bit disappointing for us given two good results in Gwynedd last week, but a shocker for Llais Gwynedd - 8% in a seat they were defending. Uncertain times for them The problem with being a plucky underdog insurgent is that you cease to become all of those things if you win. |
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froome
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Post by froome on Nov 27, 2015 9:52:08 GMT
Salisbury St Edmond and Milford Con 425 (36.0%; +13.0) LD 262 (22.2%; -20.8) Lab 232 (19.7%; +5.2) Grn 215 (18.2%; +10.7) Ind 45 (3.8%; +3.8) Referee!!  The LD vote quoted above is wrong, according to the Wiltshire council elections website (and according to our candidate). It should be 242, not 262. Which makes the percentage votes: Con 36.67 LD 20.88 Lab 20.02 GP 18.55 Ind 3.88 We put a lot of effort into this campaign, as did the Conservatives, who brought in huge numbers of activists. resulting in the increases in both of our parties' votes. The turnout was relatively high for a by-election as a result. In 2017, when all wards will be up for election, it should be much more competitive between all four parties. Andrew Teale's summary of the ward was spot on - it is a city centre ward with an interesting mix of residents. There is now a pattern of town and city centre wards in relatively prosperous southern English towns that have a similar demographic - mainly young professional and single, with a high turnover of people moving in and out, and a smaller older and more traditonal and stable population. Since the Lib Dem wipe-out in the south-west, these wards can generally now be considered to be Conservative leaning, but with the potential for us, the Lib Dems and Labour to all do well and potentially win, dependent on the local political culture and the relative strengths of these parties. I thought the Conservatives were most likely to take this seat, but was surprised at the scale of victory, which I suspect may partly reflect a budget bounce. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 27, 2015 10:19:29 GMT
Actually one pattern which has emerged through all the chaos is shown in the post directly above which is a fairly consistent if modest improvement in the Conservative share in Scotland A good point. Interesting to see what the ceiling is. |
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 27, 2015 10:24:31 GMT
Another pattern - and not only this week - is that Independents, once dug in, can retain the seat even if the initial Independent candidate moves on - the appeal of not voting for a party?
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The Bishop
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Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 27, 2015 10:41:48 GMT
Much as last week, no obvious patterns emerging. Labour blowing hot and cold, UKIP's predicted demise not manifesting, LDs blowing hot and cold and the Conservatives reasonably steady. But nothing that makes you think any specific trends are emerging. It wasn't a great series of results for them overall - indeed, their score in Carnforth was much lower than I might have expected. |
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Post by bolbridge on Nov 27, 2015 14:46:19 GMT
Does anyone have the transfers for the Scottish results?
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Post by afleitch on Nov 27, 2015 14:51:19 GMT
Actually one pattern which has emerged through all the chaos is shown in the post directly above which is a fairly consistent if modest improvement in the Conservative share in Scotland A good point. Interesting to see what the ceiling is. 18% probably.They still underperform their 1997 result despite everything. But given that Labour's floor might be 20% it's not a bad ceiling to have. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 27, 2015 15:05:34 GMT
Does anyone have the transfers for the Scottish results? Dunfermline North (quota 1216) | LD | 230 | 235 | 253 | | | | | Grn | 63 | 72 | | | | | | UKIP | 58 | | | | | | | SNP | 1056 | 1062 | 1083 | 1122 | 1144 | 1337 | | Lab | 719 | 722 | 733 | 805 | 912 | | | Con | 304 | 319 | 321 | 389 | | |
Rosyth (Quota 1344) | Lab | 926 | 939 | 950 | 966 | 1012 | 1117 | | | LD | 97 | 102 | 112 | 122 | | | | | Grn | 51 | | | | | | | | Ind | 66 | 68 | | | | | | | UKIP | 88 | 90 | 97 | | | | | | Con | 245 | 246 | 256 | 281 | 309 | | | | SNP | 1214 | 1235 | 1241 | 1249 | 1263 | 1286 | 1623 |
The SNP remain noteworthily transfer unfriendly, needing to get to the final stage in each case to achieve quota and even then the majority of transfers went nowhere rather than to them. Otherwise there's nothing particularly striking or surprising. The Indy in Rosyth (who was the former UKIP candidate) vote broke for everybody except UKIP - not sure if that's surprising or not. |
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 27, 2015 15:06:20 GMT
Much as last week, no obvious patterns emerging. Labour blowing hot and cold, UKIP's predicted demise not manifesting, LDs blowing hot and cold and the Conservatives reasonably steady. But nothing that makes you think any specific trends are emerging. It wasn't a great series of results for them overall - indeed, their score in Carnforth was much lower than I might have expected. The boundary change has effectively put that one out of our grasp other than in a landslide year - the town itself is still slightly Labour inclined but theres barely a Labour voter in the added villages. Its actually moved away from us as other wards in Morecambe and Lunesdale have moved towards Labour |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 27, 2015 18:31:46 GMT
Hefin Underwood (No Desc) wins in Pwllheli. A disaster for prediction contest. Llais Gwynedd and Plaid both face the abyss! |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 27, 2015 18:44:36 GMT
It wasn't a great series of results for them overall - indeed, their score in Carnforth was much lower than I might have expected. The boundary change has effectively put that one out of our grasp other than in a landslide year - the town itself is still slightly Labour inclined but theres barely a Labour voter in the added villages. Its actually moved away from us as other wards in Morecambe and Lunesdale have moved towards Labour At one time there would have been a significant railway trade-unionist vote in Carnforth. Significant not only in terms of voting numbers but also organisation. Bit like March or Llandudno Junction. |
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